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Deja Vu

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  • Twitter updates S-1, reports strong Q3 sales growth [View news story]
    selling the house in the front parlor as the back of the house is burning. The unseemly rush to the market screams to the high heavens that there is something that the insiders know about the future prospects of twitter.

    Of course, egged on by the screams of Cramer and paeans penned by permabullish analysts, retail will be attracted like moths to the fire.
    Oct 16 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bankruptcy chatter dismissed by J.C. Penney [View news story]
    You mean just like when they announced they didn't need extra capital and then next day announced a secondary offering to raise extra capital?
    Oct 15 03:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple roundup: Cook on Ahrendts, Mac refresh, iPad survey [View news story]
    Try telling it to all the permabulls who were talking about Apple's innovation and Samsung's supposed lack of.
    Oct 15 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple roundup: Cook on Ahrendts, Mac refresh, iPad survey [View news story]
    This is the $325 cotton iPhone 5 case sold by Burberry.

    SO let me get this straight - Apple priced the 5C waay too high and could not sell it so they brought in this woman figuring "well if she can sell $325 cotton iphone 5 case, why can't she sell an entire iPhone for $733?"

    This woman is going to get marketshare for Apple in India (currently 2%)/China/Africa? Apple is totally clueless hiring this out of touch hawker of overpriced junk to the overrich.

    I'm sure they will reach a target market of a few dozen individuals in China, India and that one guy in Africa.
    Oct 15 01:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tepper on taper: "No way" [View news story]

    Tepper: I am long a lot of stocks right now that I bought at the very top. I need the market to go higher so that I can dump it all on greater fools. So I got up early this morning and rushed to CNBC so that I can deliver a premarket pump. Muppets. are you listening?
    Oct 15 09:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife director confident in audit results: Bloomberg [View news story]
    iCon must be quite desperate to get it to close above $73, five days in a row
    Oct 15 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple reportedly slashes 5C production in half [View news story]
    I wish the MM were as permabullish as this thread. Unfortunately they are more hardheaded, less emotional and they move the markets.
    Oct 10 10:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter's Big IPO: Will Social Media Stocks Repeat History And Hurt Investors Once Again? [View article]
    One would certainly hope retail keeps out of this - but if the shares start going up after the IPO, they will pile right in.
    Oct 10 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter's Big IPO: Will Social Media Stocks Repeat History And Hurt Investors Once Again? [View article]
    Excellent article. Too many write articles only to boast of some successful trade. Took real strength to write this.

    I think investors have lost sight of the total addressable market size in online advertising. The market caps of high flyers exceed the overall revenues in this space by several multiples.

    I would not touch TWTR with a 10 foot pole.
    Oct 10 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breakthrough in debt limit showdown [View news story]
    Cowards, better not expect to get more checks from me when they cave like dominoes.
    Oct 10 10:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Truth Shall Set You Free [View article]
    Yes, I will, on the shares of the Spaceship AAPL. Hope the landing is not too hard.

    Currently the heat is rising as the spaceship loses speed and altitude during reentry into the atmosphere of reality. Fortunately my good heat shield of long investors burning up and protecting my spacecraft is keeping me very comfy.
    Oct 9 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Truth Shall Set You Free [View article]
    Quite frankly, all this financial detail misses the obvious. A dinky 4" phone sells to US customers on contract plans who apparently don't take time to comparison shop competing phones.

    I'm yet to see iPhone gain a large market share anywhere in unsubsidized markets. When the true cost of the phone is explicit, people evaluate and choose. When people do that, the choice is overwhelmingly Android.

    Another fallacy of Apple bulls is to shift from comparing market share in the US, to just numbers internationally and say "Apple sold x more phones year over year". Favorite example of this is India, where Apple is frequently quoted as having sold 4X as many phones as last year. But Apple's market share in India is barely making it into low single digits (1-2%).

    Apple has exactly zero strategy to sell in India, China and Africa except to 1-2% of the population. Apple can sit and sell minor iterations of the phone to a stagnant or diminishing pool of people in US & Europe, but the market can see Samsung is eating Apple's lunch.

    Apple has given up trying to out innovate and out compete Samsung and is turning itself desperately into a patent troll to erect barriers. Tim Cook is a donkey not a racehorse. I expect AAPL shares to slowly droop over the next year.
    Oct 9 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple reportedly hosting iPad event on Oct. 22 [View news story]
    yawn, big whoop, I guess, yaawn
    Oct 9 12:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks move to new lows as President indicates zero progress [View news story]
    So many shoes in the few with the courage to throw them at Him.
    Oct 8 03:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook - It's The Valuation Stupid (Lessons For Twitter) [View article]
    Some other red flags

    1. The MAU and DAU are probably inflated by the mobile app that is always running in the background and people may click on the notifications just to get rid of them

    2. The number of minutes that a user spends on the site may also be inflated by the mobile app constantly checking for updates etc

    3. FB's mgmt stiffed the retail shareholders prior to the IPO by tipping off their large institutional investors that revenue growth was slowing. As a result while retail rushed in, the large investors got out, leaving retail investors with tens of billions in losses, most of which was realized by retail.

    4. A leopard does not change its spots. FB mgmt has shown a certain lack of ethics (not surprising for a company that keeps promising better privacy to the users, but always sneakily goes exactly the other way). I suspect, FB mgmt will find a legal way to tip off friends and relatives, if earnings suck. Retail will again be stuck with the bill for the party.

    5. Smart, big money will certainly take profits and cut down exposure prior to the earnings, possibly leading to sharp dips.

    6. Anything short of a major blowout, will send the stock price tumbling. Beating by a penny is not going to do it.
    Oct 8 09:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment