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Deja Vu

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  • Don't look now but the hedgies are betting on Fannie FNMA.OB +6.6% and Freddie FMCC.OB +7%. WSJ says Paulson & Co. and Perry Capital (among others) are buying preferred shares on the off-chance Washington has a change of heart and decides to recapitalize the companies and sell taxpayers' stake on the open market. With the White House overwhelmingly in favor of winding down the two entities, anyone betting on profiting from a potential recap is "placing a political bet … that faces unimaginably long odds," former White House adviser Jim Parrott tells the Journal[View news story]
    I thought Fannie & Freddie bought the conforming loans originated by the banks?
    May 15 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't look now but the hedgies are betting on Fannie FNMA.OB +6.6% and Freddie FMCC.OB +7%. WSJ says Paulson & Co. and Perry Capital (among others) are buying preferred shares on the off-chance Washington has a change of heart and decides to recapitalize the companies and sell taxpayers' stake on the open market. With the White House overwhelmingly in favor of winding down the two entities, anyone betting on profiting from a potential recap is "placing a political bet … that faces unimaginably long odds," former White House adviser Jim Parrott tells the Journal[View news story]
    The odds are only long if you don't know the outcome. This tells me that the Obama white house has been bought (yet again) and shortly thereafter Fannie and Freddie will be engineered to suit the tune of those paying the piper. 2014 election expenses are coming, how better to bill the taxpayer than via Fannie and Freddie.
    May 15 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Why Netflix Will Go Bankrupt [View article]
    A new Rocco Pendola arises, as the old one goes over to the dark side!

    I agree with your analysis, but here's the rub - a few hedgies like Icahn, in league with a few sell side analysts can drive Netflix to $300+.

    Put options are the way to go, but have you seen the premiums?
    May 13 10:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks (SBUX) says it will probably enter Myanmar within the next couple of years as Asia continues to be a major target for the company's future growth. If all goes according to plan, the region will pass Canada within the next couple of years to become Starbucks' second biggest market behind the U.S. [View news story]
    Starbucks in Burma? Herbalife diet shakes in Ghana can't hold a candle to this.
    May 13 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Call it momentum or call it a short squeeze, but one way or another shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA +11.8%) are putting in their routine double-digit gain and cleared $80 before settling back. The trading puts Tesla's share price at nearly 80X 2014 earnings estimates, meaning buying the EV automaker today is a bet that its technology will be truly transformative. One company in harm's way from the Tesla juggernaut could be Toyota (TM +2.2%) if Tesla stays ahead in battery development. It's an apples-to-oranges comparison (cost), but today the Prius claims a limited driving range of 11 miles/charge compared to the Model S's range of 260 miles. [View news story]
    Toyota is harm's way from Tesla?

    To quote John McEnroe

    "You cannot be serious"
    May 10 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problems With Ackman's Thesis On Procter & Gamble [View article]
    Since Bob McDonald is not to Ackman's taste, Ron Johnson IS available...Cincinnati has Lunken Airport, very close to P&G headquarters, suitable for private jets to land and take off making the daily $41,857/hour private jet commute from San Francisco that much shorter.
    May 10 10:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain: Starbucks Deal Hides Poor Report [View article]
    Bill,

    with all the cheap money, it's almost like the ibanks and hedge funds can take the stock of any heavily shorted company into a squeeze. I'm pondering whether to buy OTM calls for JCP and HLF, esp. HLF, both companies that I don't care for, in the hope that they may be the next squeezes.
    May 9 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • YouTube Subscription Hype Is Overblown, At Least For Now [View article]
    "A la carte for premium, proprietary content would help, especially if it is priced low enough to get a significant number of Third World subscribers of modest means to subscribe to a channel or two."

    In the so called "Third World" countries ( a moniker many consider quite offensive) that internet usage is metered and quite expensive. And cable is usually extremely cheap.
    May 8 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon (LULU) is upgraded by Sterne Agee to a Buy rating and is given a fresh price target of $90 by the firm. [View news story]
    Rumor on the street is that LULU is going to be target of a short presentation at the Ira Sohn. I'd be nuts to think that this upgrade on a random Wednesday morning with no other news would be an attempt to pump up the price so that some longs, who are also Sterne Agee clients, could dump thier stakes. Just could not be. Wall Street is too honest to pull stunts like that.
    May 8 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Buffett/CNBC: "Bonds (AGG, BND, TLT) are priced artificially," he says, and investors in long-term paper stand to lose a terrific amount of money. It echos weekend comments where he told Omaha concert-goers, "I feel sorry for people that have clung to fixed-dollar investments." [View news story]
    He mean higher taxes on "the rich", not higher taxes on the Super Rich!
    May 6 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mount Kellett Capital, which has long been vocal about its displeasure with Sprint's (S +0.7%) $2.97/share deal to acquire Clearwire (CLWR +2.9%), says it has joined forces with 3 other major shareholders - Highside Capital, Glenview Capital, and Chesapeake Partners - to create a united front against Sprint's offer. Together, the shareholders own 18.2% of Clearwire's publicly-traded stock. With shares closing today at $3.37 and Dish's $3.30/share bid still on the table, investors are clearly betting on a higher deal price. (13D) (Crest Financial[View news story]
    As per CNBC, it's actually 18.2 and 8% of the stock NOT owned by sprint making it about 26% of the minority...ergo the minority shareholders can make a lot of noise, perhaps file a lawsuit, but they can't stop this. It's clear from the CLWR mgmt letter, that any lawsuit accusing the BOD and mgmt of selling out to Sprint is going to fail as mgmt and BOD have done a good job of CYA as expressed in the letter.

    Here's the link from CNBC

    http://bit.ly/10eg2Tt
    May 6 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Buffett/CNBC: "Bonds (AGG, BND, TLT) are priced artificially," he says, and investors in long-term paper stand to lose a terrific amount of money. It echos weekend comments where he told Omaha concert-goers, "I feel sorry for people that have clung to fixed-dollar investments." [View news story]
    The same Warren Buffett who said in March that "he has always admired the leadership of Goldman Sachs". Sorry, Warren, we don't all have the ability to seek rents via crony capitalism bestowed through political patronage. Ergo, we have to invest in bonds for relative safety.

    Cognitive dissonance - what happens when a guy who is supposedly giving advice for the little guy, says he admires "the leadership of Goldman Sachs".
    May 6 08:42 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett and Munger (BRK.B) on Europe: Buffett would happily buy a big business there "tomorrow" because "Europe is not going away" and in his opinion they will fix the flaws in their monetary system. "They have to find a structure that will work and eventually they will," Buffett says. Munger: "Letting Greece into the EU was like using rat poison for whipping cream: an exceptionally stupid idea." (WSJ[View news story]
    The old man is cunning and dishonest while radiating piety. Starting with oft repeated lie about his secretary's higher tax rate to turning a blind eye to ethical lapses among his confidantes to being the especial benificiary of crony capitalism via the fed, the man disgusts me to the core.
    May 5 12:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Honored with Consumer Protection Guarantee Award in Thailand [View article]
    Steals the title of "World's Most Undeserved Award" from Obama's Nobel Peace prize.
    May 3 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Galaxy S4 Win It For Samsung In India? [View article]
    Here is the real competition, a galaxy s2 or S3 equivalent for $125

    http://bit.ly/131fTYO

    This 5" might compete even with a S4, ($180).

    http://bit.ly/12oLL5L

    Samsung will sell to a few rich folks (numerically plenty, percentage wise small), but Samsung will be undercut by these types of phones. Indians want extreme value for money, hence that is why iPhone will never be a success, neither will the S4, while a few millions will sell.

    iPhone is even more handicapped as by and large the practice of paying for content is not yet well established in India and nobody wants to pay hefty fees to the itunes store to get what they can get for free. Android is more open to file transfers etc. so in that respect the S4 may be a little ahead of the iPhone, but in the end its a race to the bottom.
    May 1 08:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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626 Comments
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