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Deja Vu  

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  • Wall Street Breakfast: Major Overhaul At Deutsche Bank [View article]
    So GM agreed to pay the Cadillac tax of Obamacare for the UAW. A tax supported by the UAW and enacted by its saviour Obama. Soon GM will be staggering under labor costs again, and these Obamacare waiving benefits for the UAW will be passed on to the taxpayer via another GM bailout and paid for by the rest of us who didn't want Obamacare. You can't make this up.
    Oct 29, 2015. 08:02 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At Chicago Bridge & Iron's Monumental Rise [View article]
    How much of that $30 B backlog was attributable to the nuke projects? $8.2B? How much of that EPS (mostly non cash as CBI wasn't really getting the money) is attributable to the nuke project? 28% of EPS? How much of the revenue (again on PoC, not cash) was attributable to the nuke projects last few quarters? 18%?

    What what about that 1.1B of "unapproved" work on CBI books, representing work done by CBI but not approved by nuke plant owners? The CBI statement only mentioned a intangible writedown. What about that 1.1 B? Who is going to pay for that?
    Oct 29, 2015. 07:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CB&I selling nuclear construction business to Westinghouse Electric [View news story]

    I'm not suggesting short. I'm suggesting taking advantage of the good feeling by selling puts (OTM), a safer way to take advantage of bullish sentiment.
    Oct 28, 2015. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CB&I selling nuclear construction business to Westinghouse Electric [View news story]

    All along bulls were saying that the nuke liablities were capped at 247 M and backlog was 30B.

    Now nuke write down is in excess of a billion and the backlog will be written down by several billion (along with the presumed 8% earnings potential)

    This isn't a very high margin sector, nor are competitors like Fluor, Jacobs, etc trading at very high P/E except when their margins are shrinking or they are swinging from a loss to a profit.

    trade here is to sell monthy OTM puts around 35
    Oct 28, 2015. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CB&I selling nuclear construction business to Westinghouse Electric [View news story]
    put it another way, at 8% margin, 1 billion will take 12.5 billion in revenue to earn back. or nearly half of CBI's current 30B backlog.
    Oct 28, 2015. 07:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CB&I selling nuclear construction business to Westinghouse Electric [View news story]
    Looks like Prescience Point was right about Shaw being a lemon and that CBI would take a huge writedown. A billion smackers. Guess no one at CBI will be fired over the Shaw disaster other than the CFO who got canned politely a few months ago.
    Oct 27, 2015. 09:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Becton Dickinson Full Year Outlook [View article]
    Do you have insight on BD pricing? I have been noticing at retail level BD products pricing is increasing sharply (example for insulin pen needles).

    Are they buying up the competition for supplies and pulling a Valeant type price increase scheme?
    Oct 27, 2015. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valeant's Philidor Problem: A Flood Of Questions And A Trickle Of Answers [View article]
    if anyone thinks Philidor, West Wilshire, R&O etc are the only entities that Valeant owns, I want to sell you a bridge in Brooklyn.

    Valeant management's assertion they don't own any more of these is unbelievable since they claim not to own the above entities. So there may be any number of such entities that Valeant does "not-own" but effectively do.

    Valeant management has been caught lying and defrauding (imo) insurance companies. Now they are piling lie on half truth on selective disclosure.

    when both the NYTimes and WSJ are writing attack pieces on a company...that company's time is probably up....sunlight doesn't agree well such practices....
    Oct 27, 2015. 10:14 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valeant: Not Accounting Fraud, But The Business Model Is Dead [View article]
    Valeant management claims with a straight face they don't own Philidor, R&O etc despite paying a price of $100 milion, despite having 100% of the losses and profits on Valeant books.

    So their claim they don't own any more Philidor type entities is suspect. As Buffett observed, when you see a cockroach in the kitchen, it is seldom the only one.

    They may be having similar deals with N other entities which they effectively own but can deny owning. Valeant's statements now are like Bill Clinton's "It depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is"

    I believe the majority of their sales is probably through such entities as otherwise, absent bribing a patient with the co-pay, no patient is going to pay 20% of a nose bleed price for a generic.

    At this point given their denials they own Philidor and R&O, VRX management has zero credibility when they say they don't own other entities. Which means nothing they say can be believed.

    If I owned a body shop, and charged $10,000 for a $1000 repair and bribed insured customers to come to me by paying them thier $500 deductible as a bribe, to enable me to rip off the insurance company, what would that be? Insurance fraud.

    If Valeant charges $1500 for a $50 medication and bribes insured customers by paying them their $20 deductible or co-pay to enable Valeant to rip off their insurance company what is that?

    What is the difference between the insurance fraud body shop business model and Valeant business model?

    Citron got it wrong. There is no accounting fraud...merely insurance fraud (imo)...and remember all these entities have to have lots of people to talk to patients, doctors, insurers, do paperwork etc etc. Lots of people now have incentives to become well compensated whistleblowers (or as I prefer, snitches)
    Oct 27, 2015. 09:41 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citron's Valeant Report Is A Lemon [View article]
    Valeant is not channel stuffing. Its owning a network of pharmacies, operated by Valeant employees under false names, bribing patients by paying their co-pays and defrauding insurance companies by overcharging.

    Its like if I owned a chain of auto body shops, charged your insurance company $10,000 for a $1000 repair and paid you your insurance deductible as a bribe to bring your car to my overcharging body shop.

    Valeant is an insurance fraud, pure and simple, imo.
    Oct 26, 2015. 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Implications For Gilead Of The Problems With AbbVie's Competitive Hepatitis C Product [View article]
    Oct 23, 2015. 09:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Implications For Gilead Of The Problems With AbbVie's Competitive Hepatitis C Product [View article]
    Would it possible to remove the inactive component and carry on, or would it involve doing all the clinical trials all over again?
    Oct 23, 2015. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Week Ends With Tech Earnings Bang [View article]
    Bill Ackman, shedding tears for poor wannabe Herbalife scammers who weren't successful in scamming others, bought a large stake in a company, Valeant, that has jacked up the prices of dozens of cheap generics by more than 1000% in many cases.

    To avoid independent pharmacies policies of filling prescriptions with the cheapest generic, Valeant also ran a network of pharmacies that it owned, but didn't disclose to regulators or investors. These Valeant owned pharmacies, filled prescriptions with the 1500% jacked up price Valeant generics rather than the cheapest generics.

    And Mr. Death Blow Tear Shedding "Till the End of the Earth" Ackman was profiting from jacking up prices for millions of sick people.

    You can't make this up. How delighted I would be to see Michael Johnson and Ackman be cell mates. But we know that will never happen. The cut on the take has been sent to the White House.
    Oct 23, 2015. 07:46 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ethiopian Airlines close to Boeing 777X deal [View news story]
    best ackman voice "Ghana? Herbalife? "
    Oct 7, 2015. 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Survivorship Bias Distorts Reality [View article]
    1. There is this story of 64 guys. Each pair of guys is taken to 2 doors, where randomly behind one door is a cannon, behind another door is a bag of gold. A coin is flipped and a door is assigned. After the first round 32 guys are dead, 32 have bags of gold, after the second round, 16 more are dead 16 have 2 bags of gold etc. Eventually 63 guys are dead and one guy winds up with six bags of gold. No doubt he thinks he has skills in this game.

    2. At any given time on CNBC, some xyz who has "predicted" the latest spike or crash is interviewed. Given on any given day there are N numbers of geniuses predicting spikes or crashes, it will be always possible to find someone who has "predicted" the last one or two crashes

    3. Bananas may be cheap, but a small number of boiler room gorillas & dubious hedge funds have been pushing the banana apocalypse stories (apparently due to some virus), for a while now, trying to make banana related securities go up or down
    Sep 29, 2015. 08:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment