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Deja Vu  

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  • Netflix Is A House Of Cards On The Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    Many an investor has gone to the poor house shorting Netflix...shorting Netflix, Amazon, Salesforce.com, Tesla etc is a surefire path to financial suicide. Sure one day reality will catch up. By that day the short will be pushing up dollar bill lilies from his investing grave.
    Feb 24, 2014. 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Buyout Of WhatsApp Offers Asymmetrical Risk To Reward [View article]
    Alex...please change your profile picture to that of Buzz Lightyear...
    Feb 23, 2014. 10:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Buyout Of WhatsApp Offers Asymmetrical Risk To Reward [View article]
    Rookie MBA mistake of extrapolating along lines and curves. But if you read it as satire...
    Feb 23, 2014. 08:10 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    The subtext in the acquisition and theme of your article is that FB has no moat. FB's whole valuation was based on the fact that it has a wide and deep moat of "network effects" that made it a "natural monopoly" that would give it user "stickyness".

    The entire thesis have been proven false, not by you or me, but by boy king paying 19B tp buy an app that emerged out of nowwhere, with little funding or employees to become an existential threat.

    What bulls are not grasping is that FB's essential offering -"wash your linen in the public square" - is not working any more and FB is doing a 180 degree turn towards private sharing.

    While he may have slain one threat, unfortunately it is Hydraheaded and the outlook does not look good.
    Feb 23, 2014. 08:34 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast-Time Warner Cable Deal: Far From A Sure Bet [View article]
    "my impression is that this deal - notwithstanding all the presidential golfing, lobbying connections and fundraising parties - will encounter great political resistance and turbulence"

    Here is a link to the golfing, lobbying and fundraising parties. The linked story is much more convincing than your thesis (nothing personal here, just my 2 cents). My money is on comcast. I believe when pols and bureacrats have to choose between public good and private gain, the choice is always an easy one.

    http://nyr.kr/OiIFkN

    Secondly did you miss that FCC announced day before yesterday that it will not regulate broadband as a public utility? So all this net neutrality stuff won't have an effectnon the merger. If anything, in return for a voluntary commitment of sorts from Comcast, the FCC is even more likely to approve the merger.

    The main threat I see is that this is financed by CMCSA stock which is falling.
    Feb 21, 2014. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Is Insane - The Stock May Be A Short [View article]
    This deal highlights the risks that boy King has absolute control of the company including enough votes to replace the entire Board of Directors. If he keeps messing up, no one can remove him. It will be like having Jim & Mike at BBRY still or Ballmer welded to MSFT
    Feb 20, 2014. 12:16 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook - The Greater Fool? [View article]
    Much of the users are on the free year, probably no more than $200 million in revenues. Probable P/S is about 90. I don't know how the author got P/S of 2.5.
    Feb 20, 2014. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Is Insane - The Stock May Be A Short [View article]
    As a fighter pilot you will appreciate this. Japan Times in early 1942 before Midway "Though America is building many more aircraft carriers than we are, our Navy will sink each carrier one at a time as it emerges from the shipyard, so Japan will always be victorious"

    How many more competitors can FB sink before it runs out of pre war pilots?

    Gen Gamelin in 1940 about French reserves "Aucune". Zuckerberg 2014 about FB moat "Aucune"
    Feb 20, 2014. 10:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This $19bn Is Facebook's Best Move Yet [View article]
    Not a single mention of how much overlap there is between FB & Whatsapp users? What if the overlap was 75%? What if Fb was effectively paying $19B to stay in exactly the same place in terms of active users & engagement due to slowing Fb usage?

    Reminds me of Alice & the Red Queen.

    “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”
    Feb 20, 2014. 09:49 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Is Insane - The Stock May Be A Short [View article]
    1. Whatsapp message numbers may be inflated. When I post a couple of messages to my family, it gets delivered to 40 users, those two posts count as 80 messages

    2. Whatsapp acquisition may be purely defensive. The overlap between FB & Whatsapp users may be huge, leading to few new users. This may be done to keep Whatsapp from MSFT, GOOG, YHOO and maybe AAPL. Imagine if YHOO or MSFT had Whatsapp.

    3. FB does not have a moat that is deep or wide. If FB did, it would not pay off people who attack the moat, FB would fight them off.

    4. How many more acquisitions can FB do before it runs out of funny money?
    Feb 20, 2014. 09:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Takes A Massive Step [View article]
    Wonder if the deal will trigger anti trust scrutiny...this has defensive move written all over it...there must be a huge overlap of users...Fb paid to reduce competition and keep Whatsapp from MSFT, YHOO, Google & Apple(?)
    Feb 20, 2014. 07:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM and Ford to follow aluminum strategy together [View news story]
    I presume those who bid up the stock this morning on the news are * long term* investors since the GM trucks won't see light until late 2018. Nothing, of course can happen between now and then, no China, no US crisis etc...I applaud those who bid it up 5.5% at moment of writing...they are *very* farsighted to look beyond the glut of capacity right now to five years in the future...
    Feb 19, 2014. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Mobile Payments: Part I [View article]
    I'm still puzzled as to why I would need mobile payment as opposed to credit cards. Granted in some parts of Africa they don't have credit card processing networks so they use mobile phones/SMS to pay.

    I haven't had anyone ever come up to me and say "I wish I had mobile payment". This obsession with mobile payments is purely a Silicon Valley syndrome looking for the next pump and dump bubble. This so called mobile payment does absolutely nothing that my credit cards don't do.
    Feb 19, 2014. 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Facebook Ever Fundamentally Support Its $170 Billion Market Capitalization? [View article]
    Nice job of a "reductio ad absurdum" on FB.

    If one were to factor in some more realistic assumptions ( I understand why for a reductio ad absurdum, you want to choose the most optimistic ones), and factor in a pop & drop as youngers users flee, country by country and some of the arguments above by other commenters, it looks pretty bad for long term FB stock price, assuming rationality.

    Assuming rationality. See AMZN, DDD, TSLA, TWTR etc for why you should not...these bouts of irrational exuberance can persist for years...
    Feb 17, 2014. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Whales Are Jumping The Herbalife Ship [View article]
    After reading about Amway, I realize HLF, NUS are like musquitoes compared to the elephant that is Amway. If Amway is *ahem* legal, and Amway is extremely well connected politically, then Herbalife and NUS etc are *cough, cough* legal too. Finding any of them illegal will mean finding ALL of them illegal. Ackman is not fighting one company, but an entire $155B industry.

    The MLM industry has figured out the political system and is very well connected on both sides of the aisle, so add the establishment to Ackman's enemy list.

    In the end, those who part with their money to HLF, were wannabe predators themselves, so one should not waste too much sympathy on them.
    Feb 15, 2014. 08:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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