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Deja Vu

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  • Implications Of Herbalife's Soaring Short Interest Ratio [View article]
    It takes quite a bit of courage to come out and publicly disclose your positions and trades (enabling those who want to follow your lead with less effort). There are a lot of folks who confine themselves to making nasty comments and contribute little or nothing to these forums.

    While I disagree on the extent of the fat tail risk involved in these trades, still I applaud your courage for exposing yourself to the inevitable gibes and taunts if the stock price were to move against you.
    Jan 14 06:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Headscratchers [View article]
    sadly not...see my article...absent the regulators, HLF will survive like the common cold...
    Jan 12 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recognizing Pyramids - Without A Lawyer, An Economist, Or The FTC [View article]
    Wonderful article! Just what makes SA worth reading. Regrettably the victims don't read SA articles :-(
    Jan 11 02:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Speaks For Itself As Ackman And Loeb Duke It Out Over The Company [View article]
    The guy who wrote that story at that link even puts Ackman to shame with his thoroughness, using not even a millionth of the resources that Ackman used.

    Thank you, great link.
    Jan 11 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Headscratchers [View article]
    Check out this story on Ackman's involvement with PrePaid Legal Services.

    Salient quote from said article (a portent for Ackman's current short maybe :-)?

    "n examination of Gotham's activities in recent years shows a series of ill-timed bets, a surprising lack of diversification and a dangerous concentration in illiquid investments that could not easily be sold when investors wanted their money back."
    Jan 11 11:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Analyst Day Sheds Light On The Brand [View article]
    Another SA writer bullish on Herbalife who studiously ignores what the CEO said right after the Herbalife presentation that "90% of the distributors buy it for self consumption" thus contradicting himself from earlier in the morning and from his scream on CNBC where he thundered that 90% of the product is consumed outside the network.
    Jan 11 08:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Speaks For Itself As Ackman And Loeb Duke It Out Over The Company [View article]
    Rather a glaring omission, to leave out a certain extremely interesting interview Mr. Johnson had at noon eastern on CNBC...

    You know, the one where he switched from saying 90% of the product was sold to people outside the network to saying that 90% of the product was consumed inside the network of distributors?
    Jan 10 09:23 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Headscratchers [View article]
    I discount the whole "I want to become a distributor for the discount" hypothesis for two reasons

    1. Have you seen the new distributor sign up paperwork? I have, I downloaded a copy from FactsAboutHerbalife and it's like buying a car or even a house closing. No one does that much for a discount.

    2. Why bother when you can get Herbalife products at a greater than 25% discount (close to 45% discount at least) on Amazon, shipped to your house for free (super saver or Amazon Prime)?

    Rationally as a consumer you'll ask "do I sign enough paper work to close a house" to get 25% off (which is actually 18% because you have to pay 7% shipping) OR would you ask, I can get it for 45% off on Amazon .com shipped for FREE to my house?
    Jan 10 04:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Loeb Vs. Ackman - Sharks Eating The Sharks [View article]
    Q1. Do you feel the same way (it's wrong, assassination) etc, when someone takes a long position and talks up the company?

    Q2. I would be interested to see your source for knowing the SEC investigation was into the options trades in HLF rather than into HLF. Certainly, so far, I've found nothing in any credible media to suggest that the options trades were being investigated

    Q3. That said, what does Ackman have to do with the options trade since he said very clearly that he was short the actual stock and had absolutely nothing to do with the options?
    Jan 10 02:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman's Short Of Herbalife Highlights Lack Of Adequate Information From Federal Agencies [View article]
    Just watched the CNBC interview of Johnson post Herbalife rebuttal. It was like watching Bill Clinton testify about the meaning of the word "is". He walked away from pretty much every claim he had made previously including the 90% retail sales that he claimed so stridently on the same CNBC call where he said the US would be better off "without Ackman". Ultimately, to invest long in a company you have to trust the management. How does doing a 180 degree in few days build trust?
    Jan 10 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman's Short Of Herbalife Highlights Lack Of Adequate Information From Federal Agencies [View article]
    Ever see Yosemite Sam open hatches on a ship? Investing in HLF right now in either direction has a high probability of a cannon going off in your face.
    Jan 10 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis Of Anne T. Coughlan's Herbalife Articles [View article]
    Unfortunately articles on herbalife get spammed in the comments section by SA "users" with the following characteristics

    1) Usually their accounts date from May 2012
    2) Previously 100% of the comments were on articles relating to Herbalife, in vehement defence of Herbalife
    3) After I pointed out the 100% of comments on Herbalife, now these accounts have a few comments on some other articles, but still about 90% on Herbalife
    4) These "users" spend a good amount of time trying to provoke SA contributors to write a response by use of personal attacks
    5) Also, these "users" post very lengthy repetitive comments about their personal experience with Herbalife. I suspect this is to weary legitimate users who will tire of scrolling past many feet of pointless comments
    6) Many of these accounts recently have been newly created as the previously created May 2012 accounts have lost all credibility and have very low total number of comments

    I would advise SA readers to not engage/encourage the astroturfing trolls with above characteristics.
    Jan 9 08:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis Of Anne T. Coughlan's Herbalife Articles [View article]
    Let me relate a story here. A king levies taxes on the sale of land. A wily farmer sends the town crier through the town offering his (the farmer's) farmland for free. Soon a crowd turns up all asking for the land. "Wait" says the farmer, "the land is free, but to get the land free, you have to buy this coconut for a thousand gold pieces"

    That in a [coco]nutshell is how the 1979 Amway case precedent, 10 customer rule and 70% rule allow MLM companies to posit that the money paid for recruiting is for "retail sale of product"
    Jan 9 06:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Ackman's Herbalife Game? [View article]
    So why don't you post the exact same "opinion" substituting Obama's name instead of Ackman or Tilson. Test your first amendment rights. We'll find out whether threatening to hang someone is a threat or a opinion.
    Jan 9 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A $250k Team Alpha Retirement? Yes You Can [View article]
    I think the smart advice would be for everyone to work as long as they are physically able to. The whole retirement concept dates from a time when life expectancies were much lower. Retiring at any time when you have decades of life in front of you introduces so much unforeseeable fat tail risk, that it makes no financial sense at all from a risk management perspective.
    Jan 8 12:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment