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Deja Vu

 
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  • Report: Fairfax struggling to line up BlackBerry buyers [View news story]
    My dear fellow McEnroe fan, I remember at the slightest hint of bad news for the buyout BBRY dropped to 9.42 from 10.7 in minutes.
    Sep 10 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Fairfax struggling to line up BlackBerry buyers [View news story]
    Translation - Watsa did not find a bigger fool and is now going to jump out of the plane, leaving the retail investors still strapped to their seats in the economy section.

    May see 9's today.
    Sep 10 08:25 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short/Sell Monday's Homebuilder Stock Bounce [View article]
    The problem with that suggestion is that if the fed makes one dovish comment, your short selling profits will turn into a loss in 1 minute. It happened a while ago, when I was long, and Bernanke made some hawkish comments. It happened again when I was short and someone at the fed made dovish comments.

    So shorting this is like playing russian roulette. Not based on any fundamentals.
    Sep 10 08:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Issue Of Illegal Saturation Of Concern To Investors? [View article]
    Amway, Monavie, Herbalife, Xango, Oasis, USANA, all of these stamped out by the same cookie cutters. if regulators could not shut down Amway and if Amway's counsel was made the head of the FTC by Bush, how can I believe regulators will take any action against one or any of the MLM companies?

    It's simply not going to happen.
    Sep 9 11:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: How $5.3 Billion In Contractual Obligations Affects Acquisition Price, Chances Of Write-Offs [View article]
    Thanks, an article that addresses a key component of the valuation equation. But if Blackberry sales are cratering as they appear to be, would this not mean the write down due to the purchase commitments may be transferred to the fnished iinventory rather than materials or work-in-progress or inventory may be sold at fire sale prices like the Playbooks were in the end.
    Sep 9 10:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just How Reasonable Is A Free Amazon Smartphone? Apple Provides The Answer [View article]
    1. Phones could be ad supported i.e. the lock screen could display an ad

    2. It could require an upfront one time purchase of content credit to offset at least part of the cost of the phone

    3. Content sold for such a phone could be priced higher via add on fees such as "processing fees" to recover cost of the phone quicker

    4. Wireless service providers could kick back a portion of the service fees to Amazon to pay for the phone over time

    5. Amazon could require that location tracking be always on in return for the "free" phone and sell hyper local ads

    6. require the customer to subscribe for "Amazon Prime" or some other subscription plan

    7. Sell custom accessories such as a tablet into which the phone can dock, wireless charging pod, etc etc


    I can think of a few more ways to extract the cost of the phone from the customer.
    Sep 8 02:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail watch: Sales hard to ring up outside of auto and healthcare [View news story]
    Don't forget food is also not included in the CPI. So about 75% of the non-housing money spent by an average family each month - on food and energy - is conveniently not included in the CPI. But that $20 blender you buy once every five years at Walmart - that is what determines the CPI.
    Sep 8 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail watch: Sales hard to ring up outside of auto and healthcare [View news story]
    Reinforces my belief the jump in auto sales was a satellite phenomenon of the jump in home sales which was driven by the gravitational pull of higher interest rates in the offing.

    I have a strong feeling auto sales are going to cool off big time as the boomer gray, cars last longer than ever (150k miles the new norm??) and as more and more young people migrate to the urban areas on the East and West coast.

    These structural issues are not going to be offset by one month of auto sales accompanied by hysterical cheering on CNBC.
    Sep 8 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Charlie Munger Thinks Oil Is Absolutely Certain To Become Incredibly Short In Supply [View article]
    Translation:

    Charlie Munger and Buffett, feeling the sting of weak returns, are looking to goose a huge part of their portfolio.
    Sep 8 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lenovo in attack mode on mobile [View news story]
    Yes! We are entering the race to the bottom of commodtized products which is now at hyper warp speed. Apple was undercut by Samsung whcih was undercut by Huawei which was undercut by Micromax and Karbonn which are being undercut by nameless chinese manufacturers.

    Lenovo will jump in and cry exultantly "Look Ma! I'm flying" and five seconds later hit with a splat on the profits competed to zero floor 20 storeys below.
    Sep 7 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple evaluating 4.8"-6" iPhones [View news story]
    2016 - Apple patents iWheel, iFire and iLever and files a case in Cupertino suing every human being on this planet.

    Buy AAPL!!
    Sep 6 08:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple evaluating 4.8"-6" iPhones [View news story]
    2014 - The only true innovators in the world i.e. those at AAPL patent 5.5 & 6 inch phones

    2015 - AAPL files lawsuits against any handset maker who makes a phone screen larger than 4 inches. Cupertino jury awards Apple "a brajillion gazillion dollars"

    By then Apple's stock price under capable leadership of Tim Cook is $ 15. Apple decides to become just a patent troll and not bother with trying to sell handsets to those pesky customers anymore.
    Sep 6 07:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple evaluating 4.8"-6" iPhones [View news story]
    1 year late already, by the time it comes to market, it will be 2 years late. The curse of incumbency strikes again.
    Sep 5 08:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Microsoft Needs To Buy BlackBerry To Go With Its $7.2B Nokia Handset Division Acquisition [View article]
    Like this

    "Oh how things can change quickly when you're no longer the operating system that had OEM contractually obligated to install it on every device they sell"

    I think after the complete disaster of Windows 8, Microsoft may have an existential crisis on its hands. To survive in some mutated form it may indeed need some parts of BBRY. To wit the BES/NOC/MDM. The problem is that QNX needs NOC for OTA, MDM needs BES etc etc All the parts of BBRY are linked.

    I don't think MSFT is ever going to drop Windows Phone for QNX. As for the patents they may have some value in being kept out of Apple's hands.

    3 B cash - 3 B purchase commitments + 2.5 B patents/QNX + 1.5B service revenes (PV of future cash flows here) + 0 B for handset business + ?B for the BES/NOC/MDM.

    If you add it up that's 5B + ? (for the BES/NOC/MDM) - ? for M&A/restructuring. I think $11 a share for BBRY might just be right.

    I also think upcoming earnings will be a unparalled disaster making it clear to the world that BBRY is not a viable company. Potential acquirers may wish to wait until the earnings are released to convince those shareholders who want a higher price per share, that $11 is the upper limit of valuation.
    Sep 5 07:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Could Pull A Dell - Buy Now [View article]
    Being a long is like playing one of those games where there are two doors - behind one is a cannon that will fire when the door is opened and behind the other is a sack of gold. Either you get a buyout at a premium or you get to below $5 after next earnings.

    Option premiums both ways have high IV making this impossible to trade.
    Sep 3 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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