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Deja Vu

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  • Facebook roundup: Instagram update, corporate use, Nielsen deal [View news story]
    The faster the music plays, the dancers whirl around faster and faster, until all is a blur...until the music stops with a crash, the party's over, and the retail investor is left with clean up.

    There was a shooting star and a hanging man on the last two daily candlesticks. Needs just one more daily red candle to confirm a bearish reversal.
    Sep 25, 2013. 07:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora's Star Fades As Apple Enters Market [View article]
    Most of the world may not use iPhones. Most of even Pandora's streamers may not. But lot of those who *pay* pandora, do.
    Sep 24, 2013. 05:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora's Star Fades As Apple Enters Market [View article]
    Cecil B De Mille in the movie Ten Commandments "Till at last, beaten into the dust from which he rose, the metal was ready, for the Maker's Hand"
    Sep 24, 2013. 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax not putting additional cash into Blackberry [View news story]
    Watsa is merely looking for suckers to unload his stake, one way or another...
    Sep 23, 2013. 10:08 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora's Star Fades As Apple Enters Market [View article]
    This is long heralded, entirely inevitable disaster for Pandora unless some deep pocketed company (Amazon? Google? Microsoft? Yahoo?) decides to acquire them for subscribers. Many of the potential acquirers have their own fledging services or can buy smaller companies like Spotify for the tech. So the only real thing they would go for would be the subscribers.

    Given that the subscriber will erode as Apple integrates and data shares iRadio and its simply there, Pandora will now be in a race against time to shop itself to anyone who will buy.

    Potential acquirers will have incentive to wait and let Pandora twist in the wind a little bit to bring down the stock price and also to wait for inevitable subscriber losses to come to fruition so that Pandora is left with a base of die hard subscribers. Acquirers would be foolish to step in right now and pay for subscribers who will soon be gone.

    Until Pandora is beaten into the dust from which it rose, the metal will not be ready for the acquirers hand. (Points to anyone who guess where I got that from). I see a BO occurring at around $7-10, though some CEO with more money than sense like Ballmer might pay $30 a share.
    Sep 23, 2013. 07:50 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Finally An Angle For Gains On BlackBerry With $9 Buyout Imminent [View article]
    Let us say there is a 5% chance it goes to $6 if the deal fails to close and a 95% chance it goes to $9

    Expected value is (0.05 X 6 + 0.95 X 9) = $8.85

    Throw in time value and opportunity cost.

    Yes, at a price of $8.83 the market is pricing this correctly.
    Sep 23, 2013. 04:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon slumps on downbeat ITG Research note [View news story]
    Investors should check out Lefkofsky's track record before investing GRPN.
    Sep 23, 2013. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry off another 6% as sell-side weighs in [View news story]
    Forget BBRY. Where be the $AAPL sales numbers?
    Sep 23, 2013. 07:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Is Your Homebuilding Stock Handling Rising Rates? A Correlation Study [View article]
    Hello David,

    An excellent article indeed. You could have also mentioned the confidence intervals for the co-relations or mentioned the p or t values.

    Regarding your study itself, assuming the p/t values of the co-relations are similar across stocks , your conclusions are correct indeed, as can be seen by the volatility in the last couple of days in housing stocks.

    In the long term the key question is - what is the normal rate of housing starts. Is it around 900,000 as bears argue or is it around the historical rate of about 1.2 million?

    If it is around 900,000 due to declining numbers of household formation (due to younger people not getting jobs etc) the home builders may be failr valued right now.

    If it is 1.2 million then home builders have some room to run.
    Sep 20, 2013. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Is Officially Entering Bubble Mode, In More Ways Than One [View article]
    You see, the problem with addiction is that you need ever larger doses of the drug to get the same high. The same dose produces diminishing highs until you merely feel normal with a fixed dose and suffer withdrawal symptoms if the drug is taken away.

    QE is the drug, asset prices esp. equities the induced high, Bernanke is the drug dealer, traders are the users.
    Sep 20, 2013. 01:48 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Trading falls after pricing 12M shares at $4.60 [View news story]
    Beware of geeks peddling tweets as well.
    Sep 20, 2013. 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft details new reporting segments [View news story]
    After the bumbling Captain Ballmer steered the ship into the iceberg called Windows 8, they are very busy rearranging the deck chairs.
    Sep 19, 2013. 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.K. iPhone 5C pre-orders "a big disappointment" [View news story]
    I wonder if we will see a "ballmer bounce" when timmy is canned in the next few weeks
    Sep 19, 2013. 06:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan will face $900M in fines, admit wrongdoing in Whale case: NYTimes [View news story]
    It's a fluke that JPM is admitting wrongdoing.

    Now Jamie Dimon will think twice before spouting off about regulations.

    "it's a krill turn of fate" said Jamie

    $900 million is a killer amount

    Guess they won't be eating beluga caviar

    The bankers wives and girlfriends won't be getting Minke coats this winter

    Guess top execs at JPM are feeling rather blue.

    That's what happens when you breach the law.

    Running out of whale jokes? Is it even possible?
    Sep 18, 2013. 11:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple slides following China Unicom reservation data [View news story]
    Visualize yourself, a customer in India or China. You & your signficant other can each get a 5" flagship Android phone with much better specs, that's right TWO phones, for the price of one plastic last year's apple phone.

    Two beats one every day, esp. when $733 in India and China is the equivalent of $5000 here expressed as percentage of monthly salary.

    This is a huge error by Apple. Greed for margins overcame concerns for volume. I think someone in Apple doesn't understand Volume X Gross Margin = Gross Profit. Someone doesn't understand there is something called a demand curve and and it is not a vertical line. That particular Apple Genius thinks Volume is a constant, hence gross profit depends only on gross margin.

    Timmy is done, its now only a matter of weeks before he is canned.
    Sep 16, 2013. 07:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment