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Deja Vu  

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  • Greek crisis talks head into day two [View news story]
    ECB (headed by the Italian Draghi), IMF (headed by the French Lagarde & friend of Hollande), France (by the socialist 75% income tax Hollande) are all viewing Greece as a test case for the coming bailouts of France & Italy.

    The EU, ECB, IMF blessings of Greek proposals are essentially kisses of death for Germany, Finland et al. The troika wants to bleed Germany and set up a precedent for bleeding Germany for France & Italy.

    It's clear the Germans realize this and are wary. It's one thing to support a few Greeks in glorious idleness, entirely different to support Italy and France, while they drink wine and abuse Germany.

    Looks like from the draft from the finance ministers meeting, Greece will have to do stuff first to get money. Tsipras and the Greeks are a little stunned that their fake promises aren't going to get them the money this time. They are stunned beyond words that they will actually have to take some actions to get the money to eat.

    With the banks shut and financial system frozen, time is completely on the side of the Germans. Every passing day increases the pressure on the Greeks while Germans can lean back and wait for Greece to submit to German demands. Tsipras has miscalculated badly. Unfortunately his new buddies, Lagarde & Hollande and Renzi (or whatever) don't have money to give him, they just have bigger begging bowls than his own.
    Jul 12, 2015. 10:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is GrubHub The Next Groupon? [View article]
    The problem with Grubhub is that it geared towards a group of overpaid twenty something programmers in Bay area who think their two bit programming skills are so valuable they don't have the time to go get some food.

    Back in India, in every office building there would be a odd handyman or two who would come around every hour and ask who wanted tea, coffee, or food and go out and get them in exchange for tips and sometimes a freebie meal from the nearby restaurants (in exchange for the business)

    A company that basically provides an office errand man service is nothing to get excited about. Might as well get excited about the copier people or the janitorial service.

    In India we call these people "brokers" or "middle man" who tries to get a small commission from both sides of the transaction. Just because Grubhub operates a app and a website, frankly they are nothing more that the broker and middle man trying to scratch a (honest) living.
    Jul 10, 2015. 01:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: China Rebounds But Worries Persist [View article]
    China's stock market "rebound" is as real as Venezuela's official exchange rate for the bolivar against the US dollar.
    Jul 9, 2015. 06:46 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek Tragedy [View article]
    They could try using hot air balloons for transportation needs. I believe there is an inexhaustible supply of whining hot air from the Greek coffee houses and Syriza coalition.
    Jul 8, 2015. 08:23 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Parody Of Errors That Led To Grexit [View article]
    Given that no austerity was done at all, the central premise of this article is weak...Greeks are still sitting around thinking they don't have to work, ever...Greeks think if they scream loud enough and throw themselves on the floor and drum their feet like a toddler having a tantrum, the rest of Europe will say "OK, OK, here is the money"
    Jul 8, 2015. 01:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Panic Spreads As Chinese Exchanges Near Shutdown [View article]
    Watching China, does Yellen finally get the idea that sending out one of the Fed board to to talk soothingly every time the Dow crashes 200 points is not a great idea? Fed officials are intoxicated with publicity they get when they goose the market.

    Do investors get the idea that the "Yellen" put is worthless? Will the talking heads on TV finally get it that "Don't fight the Fed" should never be said again? Doesn't the Chinese experience prove that the central bank can do as much as King Canute when the tide of the market turns?

    Will the masses get it that Fed liquidity cannot support a falling market, once the sentiment turns?

    Tsipras, unfortunately, left no way for Merkel to save face. Unless you give your opponents a face saving way out, they will go for your jugular, even if they don't really want to. Merkel values Greece in the euro, but Merkel values Merkel in politics even more.

    Letting Tsipras win now would mean no more Merkel, as everyone would ask what the last five years were about then. He has made it either him or her. Looks like it will be him. Merkel has her hand on the throat of the Greek banking system. When someone has a hand on your throat and is cutting off your air supply, that is perhaps not the best time to say "It's either me or you"
    Jul 8, 2015. 06:54 AM | 37 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shock expressed as Greece has no new plan [View news story]
    The only thing that will actually shock me is if the European elites actually stop giving money to Greece and kick them out.
    Jul 7, 2015. 01:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CB&I on the move [View news story]

    Pretty clear more than half (54.8 B yen of the 100 billion yen charge)was for Westinghouse power system projects and that was only through 2013, add in 2014 and half of 2015, more is to come.

    CBI and Westinghouse are both using PoC accounting. If one is wrong probably the other is as well. Plus both are making some assumptions about the overruns that may not be warranted.

    Also with earnings for CBI due in a couple of weeks, don't discount whispers circulating among the well informed traders about the nature of the ER driving trading.
    Jul 7, 2015. 12:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CB&I on the move [View news story]
    The news Toshiba is taking nearly a billion dollar charge, most of it at Westinghouse isn't sitting well. Betting there is more to come and CBI is going to take some charges as well on the nuke projects...
    Jul 7, 2015. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Photo That Will Convince You To Sell China [View article]
    That is what all the bankers in Wall Street would look like today, if our tax payer money weren't used to bail them out in 2008/09.

    Blankfein selling lemons and Jamie selling tea, in tea cups.

    Obama collecting protection money in the market every Monday.
    Jul 6, 2015. 10:08 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Greece Votes 'No' - Now What? [View article]
    When you have refused to make the mortgage payments, setting fire to your house and chuckling to your family "Watch how the bank gives me forgiveness for the payments I missed and a new mortgage with lower interest rates - that I'm still not going to pay hahaha"...just is unlikely to work...

    The notion that "Surely the bank will never allow my family to be homeless after I burn down the house" just plain silly...
    Jul 6, 2015. 08:33 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Greece Votes 'No' - Now What? [View article]
    There comes a time when the punishment for a recidivist stops being about rehabilitation and becomes more for deterrence of other potential offenders.

    Merkel may have reached that point with Greece.

    Now it may be more useful to make Greece an example of what happens when Merkel is crossed...
    Jul 6, 2015. 08:06 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Referendum: No - 61.1%. Yes - 38.9% [View news story]
    Greeks voting "NO!!!!!" reminds me exactly of George Costanza quitting his job...

    ...and then regretting it and showing up for work on Monday as if nothing had happened...

    I can see Merkel sitting there at the Eurozone meeting asking tomorrow "Is that Greece over there? What is it doing here?"
    Jul 5, 2015. 03:22 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Plight Of Greek Pensioners? [View article]
    I am looking for the world's smallest violin. Greeks need to learn that there is no free lunch. Alas there is no investable thesis here because one cannot predict the actions of a small bunch of elites.
    Jul 4, 2015. 08:01 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Fitbit Flying And Will It Continue? [View article]
    Fitbit Field Marshals:-)
    Jul 3, 2015. 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment