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Deja Vu  

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  • Wall Street Breakfast: China Devalues Yuan To Lift Flagging Economy [View article]
    Chinese Economic Strategy

    1. Inflate giant building bubble
    2. Tell people owning property in bubble to pledge property and buy stocks to provide underwater property owners with a escape.
    3. Inflate the stock bubble so as to provide a cash cushion to the property owners as the property bubble bursts
    4. As every one tries to cash out of the stock bubble and stock bubble implodes, print yuan to prop up stock market
    5. As you print yuan, simultaneously prop up yuan on international market using foreign exchange reserve
    6. Realize that the foreign exchange reserve is being used up at an unsustainable rate to support yuan and instead officially devalue the yuan

    7....I can't wait to see what comes next...President Xi standing on the shores of the Pacific Ocean, ordering the tides to retreat....
    Aug 11, 2015. 08:16 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If I Had Stayed Away From The 'Sell' Button? [View article]
    for the sake of clarity I'll explain with a single one stock portfolio.

    Let us say you have $100,000 on Jan 1. You buy $100,000 of AAPL and sell it. The you buy $100,000 (more or less depending on whether or not you made a profit or loss on AAPL) of FB and sell it down the road. You keep repeating this buy and sell process 35 times by December 31.

    Now you want to compare this against buying a stock and holding.

    The point is you can't compare what would have happened if you held all your 35 positions against your single buy and hold position. to acquire a position you had to sell a position.

    The argument holds true if you bought N stocks for $100,000 on January 1, swapped those for X number of stocks In february and so on. You can't compare the cumulative performance of all those short lived positions as though they were all buy and hold positions against a single buy and hold position, since the duration you *could have held* those positions is by reasons of capital churn, necessarily short.
    Aug 10, 2015. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If I Had Stayed Away From The 'Sell' Button? [View article]
    But without selling you wouldn't have had the money to open the next position assuming your portfolio wasn't sitting in cash.

    So if I have $100,000 and I buy FB this week, AAPL next week, etc, I can't go back and look at it as if I had the money to hold all those portfolios over time. You simply cannot take all your portfolios you ever held and compare the returns, because you never held all of them at the same time.

    I would have to pick one portfolio and in fairness I would have to pick the very first portfolio since the objective was to see what happens when you buy and hold.
    Aug 10, 2015. 08:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece, creditors agree on draft of third bailout deal [View news story]
    They'll agree to everything and do nothing. Just show them the money.

    This time the Kabuki was well acted by Tsipras and Merkel.

    They should be nominated for an Oscar or Tony or whatever.
    Aug 9, 2015. 09:29 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney Will Bounce Back - Cramer's Mad Money (8/6/15) [View article]
    Kramer, as usual, cheerleading all the way to the graveyard...
    Aug 9, 2015. 07:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Apple's next iPhone event set for week of September 7 [View news story]
    Oooh pink!! I'm, like, so excited. What new Android features are we going to see this time?

    Android dreams and the fanbois scream "its the most wonderful phone of the year!"
    Aug 8, 2015. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn takes active 8.18% stake in Cheniere Energy [View news story]
    Icahn Enterprise Partners (IEP) is down 25% over last 12 months. Add in a 2% management fee, that is 27% over the last 12 months.

    Icahn's probably dialing Timmy every 5 minutes like a lovelorn teenager...begging for special dividends, buybacks...anything

    Got burnt following this genius into TLM at $13.5, no out at $12.5 thank god, but could have been much much worse.....

    IEP is not going over the high water mark of $148 anytime soon trading as it is at $77. it is going to be mighty slim pickings for Uncle, living on the 2% with no 20%...Maybe Ackman can spare him a five dollar bill for lunch money...
    Aug 7, 2015. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain swoon raises potential for activists or takeover [View news story]
    Keurig reminds me of Blackberry on the descent...broken business viable strategy...existing legacy business crumbling....
    Aug 6, 2015. 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead's Stock Price, Harvoni Pricing, And The Threat Of Merck- A Physician's Perspective [View article]
    Dear doctor,

    How would you feel under the new ACO model when you have to decide whether or not to give drugs as you will have to eat the cost if it fall outside the guidelines of the Obamacare death panels? Will it affect your decision to give the 90k drug?

    What would the effect of such fixed payment models be on Abbvie vs. Gilead drug choice by physicians?
    Aug 4, 2015. 08:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Apple in talks to offer mobile phone services on MVNO basis (updated) [View news story]
    Most MVNO's lease bandwidth and offer low cost services under a brand name.

    Apple will be the first to offer the same services at twice the cost with some catch phrases thrown in "Melodious Voice Modulation" "Double Deluxe High Definition Data". ("Force Touch" har, har, har, "Retina" Display, stop I'm killing myself with laughter)

    Fanbois will rave how much better Apple service is than the exact same service from AT&T or Verizon. Raving about Apple software and hardware has become the new wine snobbery.

    Fanboi - "Oooh, I love how much better the plot of Game of Thrones is, when watched on Apple TV streaming"
    Aug 3, 2015. 02:56 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Greek Shares Nosedive As Market Reopens [View article]
    hunting for value in a sea of 52 week highs...
    Aug 3, 2015. 02:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Greek Shares Nosedive As Market Reopens [View article]
    My poor coal call options. I wish Obama would regulate global warming by restricting the flow of hot air out of his mouth.

    I am looking forward to meeting my faculty friend. a full tenured prof in a midwestern university, whose wife and 2 kids spent most of the year in Greece, sitting at home and making more money than him, from welfare in Greece. I remember how the entire family sang praises of Europe and Greece and dissed the US.

    Where be the geniuses on CNBC who advocated investing in Greece esp. NBG?
    Aug 3, 2015. 08:03 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Bailout Talks Around The World [View article]
    OK I understand the drone sending a signal 90,000 feet away.

    Now someone explain how my laptop or phone can send a signal back that far. That too without killing the battery in the first minute or so.
    Jul 31, 2015. 07:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Investors Await Fed Policy Announcement [View article]
    Disney Aladdin song "A Whole New World..." was written for this....

    I can open your eyes (those who thought free markets would prevail in CHina)
    Take you wonder by wonder (97% of the stocks frozen from trading)
    Over, sideways and under (is that the chart of the Shanghai index?)
    On a magic carpet ride (That about describes the last year and a half)

    A whole new world (one where the government owns all the shares)
    A new fantastic point of view (We can control the tide ...)
    No one to tell us no or where to go (We are the communist party after all)
    Or say we're only dreaming (Don't say it or you'll be shot)

    Unbelievable sights (government setting a floor for stocks)
    Indescribable feelings (for Chinese retail investors and US hedge funds in China)
    Soaring, tumbling, freewheeling (the results of Chinese intervention)

    I'm like a shooting star (yes the market will fall back to earth, burnt and melted)
    I've come so far (150% in the last year)
    I can't go back (because President Xi's ego and grip on power will be hurt)
    To where I used to be (real estate insanity...)
    Jul 29, 2015. 06:59 AM | 45 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T details closure of DirecTV deal [View news story]
    Someone in the FCC is measuring the drapes for the corner office at AT&T and wondering if the corner office comes with a reserved spot for that Lambhorgini...
    Jul 24, 2015. 06:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment