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Deja Vu  

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  • Netflix beats by $0.27, revenue in-line [View news story]
    In line revs + higher than expected subscriber growth = lower ARPU despite what Hastings claims about having increased prices.

    Might also be unpaid trial users.
    Jan 21, 2015. 08:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple falls towards $107 amid tech selloff, downgrade [View news story]
    I've been watching direct shipping times from Apple. Every single model of iPhone for every carrier seems to be shipping immediately, so I don't know what Mr. Lamba's comments about low inventory and backlog refer to.
    Jan 15, 2015. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple falls towards $107 amid tech selloff, downgrade [View news story]
    Why are you reading comments here since you disregard them...and why don't you comment only to Icahn via Twitter?
    Jan 15, 2015. 03:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Dear iPhone 6, Meet Desay Mirror X5 [View article]
    Jaguar went broke and was sold to's a Tata brand now...
    Jan 15, 2015. 12:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook at Work launches in test mode; $100+ targets arrive [View news story]
    Just imagining all the workplace backbiting and fighting playing out in public for the whole workplace to writing which company will not embrace this...every middle manager better get a stock of fire extinguishers in his office...

    Just imagining Bob who doesn't like Jane bringing a "Timeline" of Jane's comments to the boss..

    Imagining the "like" count contest in the workplace....
    Jan 14, 2015. 01:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WhatsApp Sails Past SMS, But Where Does Messaging Go Next? [View article]
    In this context, its worth noting that the early versions of Google Talk had potential to become what whatsapp is today. A series of extremely poor decisions on user interface destroyed the ease of use of Google Talk and relegated it to a joke. On mobile, a bad user interface may destroy a app/platform valued at billions

    The difference I see between Google and Facebook is this - on terms of user interface feedback, Facebook seems a lot more receptive, proactive and willing to iterate than Google. Google seems to be all about just pushing out ill thought out "upgrades" and then never listening to user feedback.

    Gmail, Google Talk, even the google search interface, everything has gotten more painful to use. Zuckerberg, for all his other faults, seems to learn from mistakes like Facebook Home.
    Jan 14, 2015. 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Yes To Action Cameras, Beating GoPro Is Easy [View article]
    To address the market for an Apple ("the innovation company" har har) knockoff of GoPro, we should first look at the market for GoPro itself.

    The novelty of GoPro is really wearing off. Search Youtube and you find zillions of hours of GoPro video posted by surfers, dirtbikers, skateboarders, climber etc etc etc. Most of these have little or no hits.

    Frankly, most people don't even have the time to see the video they take themselves, let alone video shot by other people. We are all being deluged by flood of pictures and video. Pictures at least can be skimmed in a fraction of a second. But video being shared really, really sucks.

    I think GoPro should change its name to "GroanPro" for the groans elicited from the audience on which said surfers and other oversharers inflict GroanPro video.

    I don't see the slightest difference for GroanPro type video created by Apple fanbois wearing an Apple brand GroanPro recording thier bike rides, p90x workouts and yoga classes...
    Jan 13, 2015. 11:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hepatitis C Price War Begins: Gilead Plays To Win By Signing With CVS [View article]
    Nice explanation. Thank you.
    Jan 9, 2015. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hepatitis C Price War Begins: Gilead Plays To Win By Signing With CVS [View article]
    Given that Anthem said this in their press release

    "We were able to achieve a very competitive rate and a freeze on retail pricing for 2015," the insurer said in an emailed statement. "That does favorably impact plan costs for 2015."

    Is it not likely CVS got a "very competitive rate" also? Given the Anthem statement why do you think its only a 5% chance the Gilead gave a significant discount to CVS?
    Jan 9, 2015. 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taxi Medallions Face Obsolescence [View article]
    One of the classic studies about rent seeking in business school was about taxi medallions. I'm glad that bunch of rent seekers are being busted.

    I agree with your article 100%.
    Jan 9, 2015. 01:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Cannot Catch A Break And Is Therefore Headed For A Break (Up) [View article]
    The elites today have as much a disconnect with the masses as did the aristocratic elite of the ancien regime did.

    Jean Marie Le Pen's ghost will be Robespierre of a new French [economic] Revolution as the elites will be be politically executed at the polls.
    Jan 8, 2015. 08:15 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Facebook Can Do With All Those WhatsApp Users [View article]
    You wrote -

    "BI Intelligence estimates that an extra $300 billion in U.S. payments will be processed on mobile devices over the next four years. "

    Doing some back of the envelope calculations, that is $75 billion/year for the next 4 years.

    Assuming that the average fee/transaction is 2% (indeed it could be a lot less) that is 1.5 billion a year in gross earnings total for all companies engaging in this.

    Assuming Facebook splits this with 4 way with Visa, MC and a bundle of Amex, Discover, Square etc as the third contender. So that is $350 million/year in gross earnings. Applying a 70% margin to get net earnings, that is $250 million/year. or 0.25 billion/year.

    As of closing today Facebook market cap is 218 billion. That probably doesn't include the glacier of options that needs to be valued either.

    Why does 0.25 billion in earnings per year matter to a 218 billion dollar market cap company?
    Jan 8, 2015. 07:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Herbalife May Enter A Death Spiral Quickly [View article]
    Hmm...all still predicated on FTC doing something to stop HLF. Which means basically stopping the entire MLM industry since they are are similar.

    Let us say FTC announces a slap on the wrist (some fines and some better record keeping and additional disclosures to the HLF prey). I can see this zooming right back up in a short squeeze.

    But this may be a good time to initiate a straddle. Enough to the upside to return the capital and all the larger gains to the downside.
    Jan 7, 2015. 11:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Fires Back [View article]
    Any thoughts about just how much of a discount was given to CVS in return for the exclusivity?

    Also what about various comments made by better informed SA readers that the language about exclusivity for GILD leave so much wiggle room, it might as well be not there?
    Jan 7, 2015. 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe's Monetary Madhouse [View article]
    Inflation happens when the supply of money grows more than the supply products to be bought by the money. When the ECB increases the supply of money via monetization of welfare regimes, isn't the money sucked out of the European economies to countries like China which are (in my opinion) foolishly accumulating ever larger piles of dollars and euros and sending hard goods in return?

    So effectively the Chinese (and oil producing countries) are sterilizing the ECB money printing. It's when they stop accepting the ever more worthless euros and dollars (or stop pegging their currency and oil prices to the dollar), that's when inflation would strike.

    So long as there are willing gullibles willing to accept the euros and dollars, why would the Europeans (and Americans) end their welfare dream? Why would any bureaucrat, banker or politician be the one waking up the populace to the nightmare that will follow the welfare dream?
    Jan 6, 2015. 02:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment