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Deja Vu  

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  • Facebook Is An Economic Castle Protected By An Unbreachable Moat [View article]
    Given your stated 12-18 month timeline for your thesis, given the approximately zero sentences devoted to exploring any downside risks (stock dilution, more expensive acquisitions, rate of growth of digital advertising, emergence of competitors, flight of younger users - a lot to Instagram, I agree - , ad pricing risks), given your absolutely certain headline, then if you believe your own story, January 2017 calls are available I believe...why talk about diversification when that is trumped by certainity...why worry about time frames when you are certain about the next 12-18 months...

    you have sprinkled in a couple of likely-ies here and there...overall its a uber bullish piece with an title carved from absolute certainty. Network effects are among the first things taught to fresh MBA students and they then get all excited and see them everywhere...in all the case presentations they always try to rope in the "Network Effect" (to the accompaniment of rolling eyes from the faculty) because that stifles so many inconvenient questions like -

    Q. How much market share will you get? A. All due to network effects.
    Q. What will be your pricing power A. Monopoly pricing, because of network effects
    Q. How will you manage the existing deep pocketed incumbents A. They will all go bankrupt due to network effects as we will have all the customers.
    Q. How will you deal with new entrants A. Because of network effects we will be so rich, we will buy them out
    Q. What if people use substitute products A. They won't because of network effects and stickyness

    It's been few years since I was in biz school, but I imagine some version of your article is being presented in a thousand classrooms by a thousand dewy eyed fresh MBA students who have discovered "network effects".
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:27 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple reportedly working on new 4" iPhone [View news story]
    Gasp! what innovation! As I marvel at the innovative genius of Tim Cook I'm reminded of the these lines from Goldsmith...

    While words like Apple Pay made thundering sound
    Selling 3 year old phones to rustics ranged around,
    And still they bought, and still the wonder grew
    That Timmy's small head could carry all he knew.
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Is An Economic Castle Protected By An Unbreachable Moat [View article]
    I have the same question when I see an article with a headline like this on SA that I have when I see those late night "Make millions from your home" infomercials. I wondered why they are paying for late night TV time, when *they* could be making millions instead.

    If Facebook Is An Economic Castle Protected By An Unbreachable Moat, then sir, why bother to write articles here, why not liquidate your entire net worth and place it into long call options?
    Dec 23, 2014. 08:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia orders next steps to stabilize ruble [View news story]
    The $24 billion Chinese Russian ruble swap agreement shows everyone who the real boss in town is. Not the trigger happy cowboy sheriff with a tin star...but the guy with the money owning the town store, mill, blacksmith, railroad etc
    Dec 23, 2014. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Sony Pictures suspends film shoots [View news story]
    All izz well @Sony....they STILL have Amy Pascal...what more could a company ask for...what more do long investors need to sleep in peace...
    Dec 14, 2014. 10:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Looking Ready For Takeoff [View article]
    prescient comment. 120 handle today 12/12 at 12:12 PM
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Investors Worry About Boeing's Plan For A New Aircraft? [View article]
    The C-suite's pay id decided by a few quarters results in the present. Quickest way to goose it is to cut R&D.By 2030 the present management would have departed with its bag of shekels. As Werner Von Braun said of the V2, my job is to send it up...where it comes down, that's not my department...similarly developing new aircraft ...is not current management's department...
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pershing posts new Herbalife-bashing video [View news story]
    Ackman promised a "death blow"....he didn't mention laughing to death. I'm glad I got rid of my $55 puts for a profit.
    Dec 11, 2014. 10:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pershing posts new Herbalife-bashing video [View news story]
    Ackman's hail mary pass from his own 10 yard line...lands around the 30 yard line....
    Dec 11, 2014. 09:49 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Internet stocks routed [View news story]
    Just wait till the first time FB misses earnings...
    Dec 8, 2014. 10:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3%-down mortgages are back at Frannie [View news story]
    when they go broke again, I want to see Ackman give them 500 billion
    Dec 8, 2014. 10:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Diapers Are Going To Flop Just Like The Fire Phone [View article]
    Have you considered Amazon may trying to pull off a "Monoprice.com" type endeavor i.e. sell excellent quality merchandise w/o brand premiums (I have wondered why Amazon hasnt acquired Monoprice many times).

    For instance, I know I get excellent quality merchandise at Monoprice, so I compare Monoprice prices not with discount products but with the top of the line products. Monoprice products often cost more than the bottom of the barrel products, but less than the absolute top tier branded ones.

    Amazon branded stuff may be aiming for the same notion.
    Dec 6, 2014. 05:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint offers to cut AT&T/Verizon subscriber bills in half [View news story]
    14 or 15 billion purchase commitment if I remember right...sometime around the CLWR acquisition I think...
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pimco has bled over $100B this year [View news story]
    If I was Joe Schmoe, and I noticed Pimco funds being offered by employer, I would have a talk with the benefits manager as to why my employer is supporting lavish 290 million paychecks with my money.

    I hope the revelations about the huge pay checks to the greedy managers at Pimco bring down the company.
    Dec 1, 2014. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunk The Myths On China [View article]
    Among the areas of agreement I strongly agree that very high quality goods and services can be produced by China.

    No nation in the world has a monopoly on brains or talent. Every population is normally distributed. I cringe whenever I see a comment on SA about "cheap, low quality Chinese goods"

    Given the manufacturing base in China, the only place to get high quality manufactured goods (which demands a diversified, large, automated supply chain) may be in China. People don't seem to understand that without a machine tool base, there is agreater labor component in the production. The greater the labor component, the poorer the final quality. Automated mass production and high quality usually go hand in hand.

    In the US, there seems to be some kind of contempt for "mass produced" and some kind of reverence for "hand made" or "artisanal" which indicates most people don't understand manufacturing processes.

    Again, on innovation etc, it seems to be all the rage to think Asian countries cannot innovate, hence the nasty comments against Samsung you see in virtually all the threads here. I don't see any reason why China, Korea or India can't innovate just as well as anyone else.

    One more point, the birthrate in India is falling steeply in a few years it has fallen to about 21/1000 population or about total of 2.5/woman (since women make up a smaller number of the population). That is not far about the replacement rate of 2.1/woman. India's population will peak and stabilize in the next decade or so. (Data from world bank, you may have to input parameters into the query boxes http://bit.ly/1BUQnbl)
    Nov 21, 2014. 12:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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