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Deja Vu

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  • Homebuilders hit by glum Owens Corning outlook [View news story]
    Spoke with a homebuilder. According to the example he quoted a $300,000 (build cost + builder margin) house in 2012 now would today run $430,000. On the higher ends this is even more so. A $600,000 (cost + margin) house in 2012 now would run about $900,000. And add in in higher interest rates for mortgages from a buyer perspective. According to the homebuilder, the people buying the finished inventory in early 2013 got both the lower 2012 costs and the lower interest rates of 2013.

    Lumber, labor, stone, you name it, everything has gone up 30-40% from the lows. New construction can't compete with existing stock until existing stock prices creep up as inventory of existing homes for sale gets tighter and tighter.

    Essentially this means more and more people are going to be priced out of the new home market or will downsize until they can afford it. Either way, this is not looking good for homebuilder revenues and margins.
    Jun 20 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: iWatch likely to have 2.5" display, enter production in July [View news story]
    I don't think there are 50 million girlfriendless, sideburn toting, 25 year old programmers in the bay area but I may be wrong on this....if there are, I can see them curled up cosily in their bean bag chairs in the 8 person shared loft, on a Saturday evening, happily gazing deep into the iWatch watching their pulse go up as they iMessage each other "Mine is 67, what is yours?". I hear soon they will form a action group to support iMarriage so that they can marry their iPhones at the nearest Apple Store with a 20 year old Genius presiding. There would, of course, be an open iDevice recharge bar for the reception.
    Jun 19 03:59 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed lowers 2014 GDP projection, but 2015 and 2016 hold [View news story]
    Keep handing out the welfare and the "disability" checks. Soon no one except a few will be working. Employment will be 100% for those who want to work. Those who don't want to work can sit around smoking pot, whining about "fairness", "inequality", "paying it forward" and in general abusing those who work, while taking their money. When there isn't enough money to be taken, the Fediots will print more and more.

    This is going to end well...
    Jun 18 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks close broadly higher as Yellen offers upbeat economic assessment [View news story]
    I am reminded of the Air France 447 pilot who kept gunning the engines and pointing the plane up until it stalled and crashed.
    Jun 18 06:46 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity/Silevo to build 1GW+ plant; shares +7.4% [View news story]
    The sell worked once so Musk is trying it again. Next he will announce a Giga Factory that will build 1 million rockets a year and allow anyone to travel to space for the cost of a greyhound ticket.

    Everyone should try it. For instance, Gulfstream should announce a Gigafactory for private jets that will make one billion jets a year so that there is a breakthrough on costs so that everyone can have thier own private jet when they turn 16.

    Probably stole the idea from the Fed where they have a Gigafactory to print dollar bills and bring down the "cost" hehehheh
    Jun 17 11:44 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Analysts Are Wrong About Apple [View article]
    "reasonable assumptions" on volumes and margins on products categories that no one knows anything about? How about "speculation on vaporware unlikely to appear from a CEO who has so far produced recycled iterations"?
    Jun 16 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xiaomi Is A Big Threat To Apple [View article]
    If Apple wants to use another low information jingoistic jury in Cupertino to attack Xiaomi, then I can guarantee you Apple will not be selling iPhones in China for too long.
    Jun 12 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iraq in flames again, rebounding oil industry threatened [View news story]
    Refiners like VLO should be worth a look with as this may drive up the Brent-WTI spread....
    Jun 11 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing -2.3% following downgrade, Airbus order cancellation [View news story]
    I wrote a comment here on SA a few months ago on this very question...whether these airliner backlogs are real or just wishful orders...
    Jun 11 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Never 'Fall In Hatred' With A Stock - Especially Facebook [View article]
    Hilarious comment!

    Also if I were Zucky, I wouldn't drink any coffee handed to me by Sandie. She has a Hilary like gleam in her eye...
    Jun 10 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Will Sell Out Of Herbalife [View article]
    Still would cost about $4000 at ask to buy back the sold leg...but maybe I'll spend 2k to buy back half. Great idea thanks!
    Jun 10 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Will Sell Out Of Herbalife [View article]
    Those 50 August $45-$40 put spreads I have have been slowly bleeding money. Let's hope you are right.
    Jun 10 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Pot Pourri: Will This Guy Be Arrested First? [View article]

    Nobody can protect wannabe scammers from being scammed. I have come to believe there are no victims in this saga, only perps and wannabe perps.

    Secondly, given the hush money paid out by the MLM industry to both sides of the aisle, nothing is going to happen to them. HLF is exactly representative of the whole MLM industry. If HLF is taken down, then the whole MLM industry must be taken down. It's beyond the ability of one hedge fund manager. He is fighting way too many foes with way too much money.

    At most HLF will be taken private.
    Jun 10 07:54 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Never 'Fall In Hatred' With A Stock - Especially Facebook [View article]
    I suggest you read Dr. Aswath Damodaran's articles on FB valuation on this same website.
    Jun 9 03:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullard gets even more hawkish [View news story]
    How dare you speak the truth. sir...
    Jun 9 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment