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Deja Vu  

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  • Ethiopian Airlines close to Boeing 777X deal [View news story]
    best ackman voice "Ghana? Herbalife? "
    Oct 7, 2015. 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Survivorship Bias Distorts Reality [View article]
    1. There is this story of 64 guys. Each pair of guys is taken to 2 doors, where randomly behind one door is a cannon, behind another door is a bag of gold. A coin is flipped and a door is assigned. After the first round 32 guys are dead, 32 have bags of gold, after the second round, 16 more are dead 16 have 2 bags of gold etc. Eventually 63 guys are dead and one guy winds up with six bags of gold. No doubt he thinks he has skills in this game.

    2. At any given time on CNBC, some xyz who has "predicted" the latest spike or crash is interviewed. Given on any given day there are N numbers of geniuses predicting spikes or crashes, it will be always possible to find someone who has "predicted" the last one or two crashes

    3. Bananas may be cheap, but a small number of boiler room gorillas & dubious hedge funds have been pushing the banana apocalypse stories (apparently due to some virus), for a while now, trying to make banana related securities go up or down
    Sep 29, 2015. 08:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valeant takes another hit after House Dems request subpoena for docs on drug pricing; shares off 12% [View news story]
    Does the old drug Valeant buys and price gouges not deliver benefits? The benefits may vary, but charging for the "value" of the drug distorts the market. What's the "value" of a drug for a 43 year old mother of 3 children who might live six extra months with an oncology drug? All drugs deliver benefits, that's why people taken them and doctors prescribe them Gilead doesn't have a monopoly on beneficial drugs.

    I figured IBB was a short, the previous time it took a sharp dip about a year ago. That didn't work out so well.
    Sep 28, 2015. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valeant takes another hit after House Dems request subpoena for docs on drug pricing; shares off 12% [View news story]
    I knew Medicare/medicaid and insurer budgets could not stand to be dragged down the path blazed by GILD. Once Gilead did it, why not every one else? And if every drug company did the same gouging, there isn't money in this world to pay them.

    Sooner or later the party was going to end with payers blowing the whistle and headline risk becoming very very real. Wonder if it is too late to short IBB.
    Sep 28, 2015. 03:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa to split into two companies [View news story]
    at moment of writing lil old me is holder of a large fraction of 2018 outstanding calls, all options bought in the last week or two. I wonder what this does to the call options when the spinoff happens
    Sep 28, 2015. 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New iPhone 6s hits stores Friday [View news story]
    Somewhere PT Barnum's spirit is watching the queues and chuckling...
    Sep 25, 2015. 10:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China to announce cap-and-trade program at Friday summit [View news story]
    well said
    Sep 25, 2015. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On eve of iPhone launch, Sprint offers $1/month plan [View news story]
    Looks like Sprint is missing all those cheapskate $5 ARPU Nextel and Clearwire customers, the kind the post paids subsidize...

    Bottom feeders like Sprint never change their habits and never move up the food chain...

    Anyway Sprint loses subs...why not let the marginal ones go and focus on the post paids and make some money?
    Sep 24, 2015. 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: What's Next For Volkswagen? [View article]

    thanks for the tip. I'll look into it immediately.
    Sep 24, 2015. 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: What's Next For Volkswagen? [View article]
    Might be a good idea to pick up Alcoa. Stock is hammered 10+% in a couple of days apparently due to fears of VW depressing car demand, hence depressing demand for aluminium. Alcoa trading with a 8 handle this morning. I bought 100 contracts of the 2018 $10-$15 and 100 contracts of 2018 $12-$17 call spreads.
    Sep 24, 2015. 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: What's Next For Volkswagen? [View article]
    @James Carlini

    Let me give you an example. I pissed off an IT guy at a previous workplace. He went to my boss with a report and said "Our employee monitoring program Websense shows this guy has 3000 hits on Gmail in the last two weeks"

    My boss called me into his office, grim faced. Given that I had checked gmail exactly once a day on my lunch break, I knew this was pure sensationalism. I asked for a clean computer, logged in to gmail and logged out in one minute. I told my boss to ask IT for the hits on Gmail. It came back as 157 hits for that one minute.

    So I told my boss, it looks like I checked gmail maybe for two minutes each day during my lunch break. I asked for a total browser time report. It came back as 20 minutes on gmail for the 2 weeks.

    People who want to create alarming statistics can do so. I think these VW "40 times" etc are exaggerated and the equivalent of "3000 Gmail hits in two weeks". It behooves us to look past the headline. VW might be a buy once the DD is done on this issue.
    Sep 24, 2015. 08:20 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: What's Next For Volkswagen? [View article]
    VW seems to be a Lumber Liquidators type of situation. With actual required testing in one way (not on the road) and some XYZ testing in a non legally required way driving from SF to Seattle.

    If real world emissions was what was to be tested, then road testing should have been mandatory. Given that BMW also has failed the non legally required tests, its time to question whether these wildcat tests are, in fact, relevant legally. I haven't read any legal requirements to drive vehicles up the west coast.

    There are other questions. For instance, how often did VW cars not meet standards? Was it on some steep mountain incline? What % of the time did it not? You'll notice none of the news stories mention that. What if it met the standards 99.9 of the time and the other 0.1% when on a very steep incline or some other stressful condition it did not. That would make the story seem a little different right?

    Not to forget, the so called "defeat" software is required to disable various car while testing systems like antilock brakes (drive wheels moving while other wheels stationary). Plus it should be noted in Europe, the engine is tested under no load. A engine running under no load is different than a engine running under a load. In Europe, everything can be stripped off of the car, including even the airconditioning system, all the power car systems like power steering etc etc. Basically the engine running under no load is tested.

    I'm beginnng to think, while this may be bad publicity, if push came to shove in a court of law, VW would win. These people who claim VW is polluting are beginning to sound like the people who scraped off the top layers of LL laminate to get at the formaldehyde and then screamed murder.
    Sep 24, 2015. 07:52 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook unveils 360-degree video [View news story]
    thing. not thong. no way to edit a post on the mobile app it seems.
    Sep 24, 2015. 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook unveils 360-degree video [View news story]
    so why is such a gimmick relevant for the 99.9‰ of us? it is hard to get "immersed " in a 5 inch phone display. the whole strapping a thong to your face is also more than slightly ridiculous. maybe as a boardwalk or mall novelty item.
    Sep 24, 2015. 07:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross results: A year following Pimco departure [View news story]
    most of the 1 B Bill is managing is his own money. looks like he was overpaid at Pimco. and more importantly, given how much Pimco seems to pay their people, its clear investors aren't first priority at Pimco.
    Sep 24, 2015. 06:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment