Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Deja Vu  

View Deja Vu's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • CNBC: Microsoft held "significant talks" with Salesforce, disagreed on price [View news story]
    He wanted to buy SalesForce? Nadella better change his name to Nutella
    May 22, 2015. 07:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Case Of 500.com [View article]
    Beware shorts...this screams CYNK CYNK CYNK
    May 22, 2015. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple reportedly wants to offer local TV; Slice estimates U.S. Watch sales [View news story]
    Apple biggest needle moving new product is engineered by a man called Icahn...it's called buybacks.
    May 22, 2015. 03:27 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Apple prepping 12" iPads, dual-app viewing, multi-user login [View news story]
    That simple huh?
    May 21, 2015. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: More Than Meets The Eye [View article]
    @willhand

    Author has used just the p/e ratio and nothing else it seems. Author has not mentioned any of the risk factors. I have commented on them elsewhere on SA, you can click my profile and then CBI ticker to see them if you are interested.

    I don't want to reproduce the same lengthy questions for each article, but this this article is remarkable for mentioning not a single one of the many factors that overhang the stock.
    May 21, 2015. 10:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce beats estimates, issues solid guidance; shares rise [View news story]
    Amazing what you can do when you buy dollar bills by issuing stock and sell them in Times Square for 90 cents...

    Benioff, Musk...true successors to PT Barnum....
    May 20, 2015. 04:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC: June rate hike about off the table [View news story]
    The music is never going to stop and the banks are going to keep dancing...
    May 20, 2015. 03:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: The Narrative Turns Positive [View article]
    The Westinghouse AP1000 design was certified prior to the project kick off in March 2009. However, Rev 18 and 19 were submitted to the NRC in response to "Aircraft Impact Asessment Rule" and Fukushima. The final approval of the design was in December 2011 and Combined Operating license was approved in early 2012.

    Though it took 3 years, this was anticipated and the COL was only six months late. Yes, the AIA added reinforced barriers all around and required some rework of the initial work done starting in 2009.

    But a lot of the delays since then seem to be CBI's fault. CBI' seems to have had some trouble in fabricating the various modules and the time lines are slipping. The CBI liability here must be greater than half the 246 milion total for the consortium.

    Remember this is a company earning a little more than a billion a year. EBITDA margins are around 8% and net profit around 4%. There is not a whole lot of fat in the company to take a hit.

    The situation seems to be the usual one, where party A hires a contractor to do a job and then changes some stuff. Contractor then refuses to stick to original price saying the scope has changed. And both haggle and argue over how much more should be paid. Given that in the end the utilities and regulators will be only too glad to pass the buck on to the rate payers, I have a feeling CBI will emerge without major losses, but for a while there's going to bad headlines and hold ups in payments to CBI.
    May 19, 2015. 03:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: The Narrative Turns Positive [View article]
    I got in at 41, got out at 50 because of the aforesaid risks. Nervous that shoe might drop on the nuke projects.
    May 19, 2015. 03:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: The Narrative Turns Positive [View article]
    Brett

    Since this article doesn't cover the questions below, did you cover them in your subscription service?

    2. The cost oveerrun estimates for the 2 nuke plants are over $2 B each. 1.1 B was CBI's own estimate of its claims not the actual overruns. Of this 4 B, 2.5 B is financing costs that rate payers will eat, but what of the remaining 1.5 B, who will eat that?

    2. Is CBI going to split the losses with Westinghouse 50-50 as they indicated they might for the 246 million they acknowledge as their baby?

    3. The recent addtional delays which have been described as a "best case scenario" by regulatory staff (meaning they can extend beyond more) seem to be caused by fabrication delays of CBI not design or other issues. How much will CBI eat of this?

    4. What is the counter party risk of this Mozambique contract, of which the final decision to invest has not been made (contrary to the comments I read here on SA). Anadarko has made $4B loss in the last two quarters. And it is partnering with hugely loss making state owned oil companies from India for this Mozambique project. The falling rupee and the huge subsidies given to domestic consumers by Indian companies mean they are perpetually on state life support. These are counterparties for CBI. Have you examined these risks?

    5. The nuke plants are fixed bid about 80:20. CBI is in litigation with its customers on the nuke plants about the overruns. What is the status of that, did you cover that?

    6. This current article does not mention the Toshiba accounting probe, the cancelled dividend and the postponed earnings. Is the Toshiba "infrastructure" project accounting problems in Westinghouse? If losses are discovered, is CBI still going to split this 50-50?

    7. Since CBI and Westinghouse both use Percentage of Completion accounting, would discovering that Westinghouse's estimation of the percentage of project complete was wrong serve to correct CBI's PoC assumptions as well?

    8. Why did the CFO leave suddenly w/o explanation?
    May 19, 2015. 12:12 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge ratings cut by S&P following debt-share exchange [View news story]
    Really simple. If oil goes up above $80, SD will survive. If not, it will die or sell itself at fire sale prices.

    Since I have no idea what Saudis will do, it's a roll of the roulette wheel now.
    May 19, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple shelved plans to launch a TV set [View news story]
    I can see it now. No remote control. Only one channel controlled by Cupertino because they deliver the "maximum viewing experience". 30% cut of revenues demanded from NFL, NBA and MLB. Will come in gold for a certain race and gender. Will start with a 32 inch model and in 7 years work up to a 70 inch model. Will feature proprietary wall plug and just one special connector that will connect only to a apple TV set top box. Will receive gushing reviews from Mossberg at Wall Street Journal and other Apple 'journolists" . Wil crack if dusted.

    When a remote control is introduced, it will be hailed as the greatest innovation ever. Not withstanding recent appeals court ruling, Apple will patent rectangles with screens. And sue Samsung in Cupertino for violating patents on black rectangles with screens and remote controls, and win a gazilion dolars because future Apple employee Lucy Koh, will bar all mentions of previous art in the patent infringement trial.

    For years we will hear how 32 inch is the perfect size for a TV until all those who say that will rush to buy a 70 inch for $10,000 apiece.
    May 19, 2015. 09:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple shelved plans to launch a TV set [View news story]
    Icahns tweet stands exposed for what it was, a pure calculated uninformed pump....
    May 19, 2015. 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge ratings cut by S&P following debt-share exchange [View news story]
    Right after the Cooperman revealed he was in SD I bought in at 5.1-5.3 and put in a sell at 6.95 GTC. when it sold and went above 7, I was kicking myself believing his schtick about this being a $10+ stock. Thank god, I got out. A lesson about following Coopermans, Ackmans, Icahns (I got hammered in Talisman, buying at 13.5 and selling at $12.x), Einhorns (paid with a ATHN short that quickly turned painful, it was profitable for exactly one day) and any other jokers.

    One fine morning I read that Cooperman who had been pushing SD is now no longer bullish except that he provided no argument why his original thesis was wrong now, and he is now pushing Atlas.

    The only reason I follow the moves of these "whales" is I believe they are privy to industry inside information because they regularly meet top mgmt at conferences, charity events, etc etc, (though maybe not the inside information of the companies they invest in.) A example would be say a whale meets the CEO of company A. The CEO may say "I think Company B is going to do much better than us because of this this and this"
    May 18, 2015. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn hikes Apple target to $240, sees FY16 EPS of $12 [View news story]
    IEP is down 8% in the last one year while the S&P is up 13.25% over the same time period.

    Uncle Icahn is asking Timmy to bail him out with his investors.
    May 18, 2015. 12:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,469 Comments
2,869 Likes