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Deja Vu

 
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  • Apple Shares Are Ripe For A Pullback - Time To Take Profits [View article]
    SAneeds a "block user" functionality so that one can filter out a ton of comments from the same people saying the same things in extremely ad hominem emotional ways.
    Sep 16 11:35 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay - Taking A Bite Out Of Payments [View article]
    @tomal

    110,000 is a *pilot* project. Full rollout is early next year. It will have a huge presence because of all the merchants in the consortium will roll it out at the same time.

    Difference is Apple is *launching* with 220,000. Not piloting it.
    Sep 11 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay - Taking A Bite Out Of Payments [View article]
    Apple is adding itself as yet one more middleman to be paid by retailer and not cutting out a single existing middleman.
    Sep 11 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay - Taking A Bite Out Of Payments [View article]
    first by a few days doesn't mean a monopoly. MCX is is pilot stage, slated to be rolled out full scale early next year. Visa's token system also will be available to all before end of this year.
    Sep 11 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay - Taking A Bite Out Of Payments [View article]
    Some factors to consider-

    Currently Apple Pay is available on 220,000 of 11-12 million retail POS, a 2% penetration rate.

    The consortium of merchants developing MCX like Dillards, Dicks Sporting goods, Walmart, Samsclub, Kohls, Bestbuy, 7/11, Dunkin Donuts, Exxon Mobil, Lowes, Hobby Lobby, Michaels, CVS, Conoco, Wendys, Southwest, Sunoco, Old Navy, Olive Garden, Sears/Kmart, Target (they accept Apple pay only in apps, not in stores), baskin robbins, bed bath & beyond, etc *won't allow the installation of other NFC terminals in their stores*. Its in the MCX agreement.

    The single use token system is developed by Visa, NOT Apple, and is available to all platforms.

    Samsung S5 (and I'm sure upcoming phones) has a fingerprint reader and NFC. This is by no means a Apple exclusive. Any vendor can roll out a NFC + fingerprint + single use token system

    I'm a little puzzled by the euphoria surrounding Apple Pay...
    Sep 11 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay - Taking A Bite Out Of Payments [View article]
    What! No breathless predictions of Apple destroying the revenue of Visa/MC? No prediction of "$40 billion in revenues by 2017 from Apple Pay?", no predcition of "this will add 50% to the current stock price?" Sir you do injustice to the breathless retail bulls and the "To the moon, Alice!" analysts on Wall Street.
    Sep 11 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay: The Only Wallet With Potential To Gain Widespread Adoption [View article]
    Curious you did not mention MCX? Merchants making up the MCX are developing their own NFC payment system. MCX merchants are prohibited from installing any other NFC based systems.

    A few of them are Walmart, Samsclub, Kohls, Bestbuy, 7/11, Dunkin Donuts, Exxon Mobil, Lowes, Hobby Lobby, Michaels, CVS, Conoco, Wendys, Southwest, Sunoco, Old Navy, Olive Garden, Sears/Kmart (hahaha here), Target (they accept Apple pay only in apps, not in stores), baskin robbins, bed bath & beyond etc etc etc

    Apple Pay is unlikely to be accepted at far more places than where it will be accepted...as of right now...

    Also, the single use token based system from Visa is going to be offered to all platforms not just Apple.

    http://bit.ly/WKy3hK

    Also not to mention, for instance, Samsung S5 has a fingerprint reader and NFC and will have the token system so much touted by Timmaay, and can roll out a exactly similar (or better) capability as Apple Pay.

    Not to mention that retailer are not wild about having to pay one more middleman after paying issuing bank, Visa/MC/ card processor and now adding Apple too?

    http://reut.rs/WKy4lY

    Also Apple's current market share is 40% in the US and about 10% or less worldwide. Assuming 50% adoption of Apple Pay (Huge I know) even then 80% of people will not use the Apple Pay Terminals in US and 95% of people will not use Apple Pay terminals elsewhere in the world. Why should merchants install, train, maintain and pay fees for such a small segment?
    Sep 10 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Is Finally Here [View article]
    Yes I forgot, people will opt for higher memory sizes. I'm used to Samsung and the microSD card.
    Sep 10 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Is Finally Here [View article]
    I am sure Apple will have 2 barn burner quarters with holiday season plus china new year. Apres cela, le deluge
    Sep 10 10:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Is Finally Here [View article]
    I'm having difficulty seeing an average family forking over $800 for 4 phones on 2 year contracts and paying another $1400 plus taxes for 4 watches
    Sep 10 09:44 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Analysts Are Wrong About Apple [View article]
    "reasonable assumptions" on volumes and margins on products categories that no one knows anything about? How about "speculation on vaporware unlikely to appear from a CEO who has so far produced recycled iterations"?
    Jun 16 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xiaomi Is A Big Threat To Apple [View article]
    If Apple wants to use another low information jingoistic jury in Cupertino to attack Xiaomi, then I can guarantee you Apple will not be selling iPhones in China for too long.
    Jun 12 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Was Wrong About Apple [View article]
    Michael,

    While I fully agree with your thesis, the market psychology must also be considered. Currently the market is euphoria in general and about Apple in particular.

    Also introduction of the iPhone 6 along with the rise of programs like At&T's Next (which allows for early upgrades - at no upfront cost, though the deluded consumers will pay through their nose later) will pull forward demand from upcoming quarters. So I will not be surprised if Apple reports "blowout" numbers in the later half of this year.

    Yes, then there will a hangover from the party. But being a short means getting both what will happen and when it will happen right. I agree with the what will happen in the long run, but the when remains an issue. One cannot risk shorting the shares directly without call protection or one must buy puts and put spreads. Both forms of protected shorting require a sunset date and theta decay.

    Going along with the market psychology and limiting my risks I have been serially buying call spreads and making good money. I think until the clear signs of a top manifest, this may be a better strategy.
    Jun 9 08:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Digesting WWDC: Cloudy [View article]
    "Apple invented the smartphone as we know it 7 years ago and since then the concept has been built out."

    Ex employees of Palm and RIMM, HTC (who sold me a rectangle with rounded corners and a touchescreen in 2005) and a few others would disagree.

    Viewing Apple with rose colored spectacles leads to obvious bias. Almost all the features Apple shamelessly copied from Android have been in Android & google for years (OK some maybe a year). I mean stuff like syncing photos, email, 3rd party keyboards, predictive suggestions, activating Siri without touching the phone, widgets, replying to messages without opening an app, continuity, using microphone to send audio clips, I could go on but the whole WWDC was basically "Look ma, I copied Google"

    Rose colored spectacles leads to mistaken visions such as "Apple invented the airplane" And the internet. And the smartphone.
    Jun 5 07:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The $500 Apple Put: Backing Up The Truck On Buy Backs [View article]
    One little hint that CHL sales are slow and let me see Timmy and Uncle prop up the stock for more than a day or two. The image of King Louie & Baloo propping up the temple in Jungle Book comes to mind.

    http://bit.ly/1ezO4IX

    It's a negative that absent the company propping up its own stock, the stock would have sunk further. Somehow the author tries to spin that as a postive.
    Feb 14 05:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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