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Deja Vu  

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  • Apple: Subscription iPhones [View article]
    Important assumptions for a Apple bull case

    1. Apple iPhones will continue to retain value, when larger numbers of them are returned used

    2. Emerging markets will continue to pay for a used iPhone vs. a new sleek Android from Xiaomi or One Plus One or whomever, since new Androids with similar hardware are now reaching used Apple pricing

    3. Average US customer who used to get no break at all from mobile operators when opting for a cheaper phone, will now not do the math and figure out they *can* get a break by opting for a cheaper (presumably Android phone)

    4. An average Joe will pay Family plan for 4 that pushes $100 for 4 lines, plus $15 x 4 access fee = 160 and then will shell out $32 X 4 = $128 for a iPhone for a grand total of $288 p.m. plus taxes taking it to around $325 p.m.

    5. Cheaper unlocked direct to customer Android handsets will not become popular. So far customers had no incentive to BYOD since the contract model meant they were paying the subsidy regardless of whether got a new handset every time they reupped for a contract.

    Granted average US smartphone shopper is not wise to pricing yet, but how long will that last? A very nice Android phone that can easily last 3 years now runs max about $300 (nexus 6 $349, Asus Zenphone 2 $299 on Amazon right now). For the price of one year of iPhone installments a average joe can own the Android flagship phone and use it for "free" for the next two years sans installments. I think consumers will do the math.
    Sep 15, 2015. 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook on Q3 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]

    So let me get this straight, you sold your stock @131, when you are bullish it would go to $250, because you thought it would drop and you wanted to "have dry powder"? Why not sell all the stock then if you thought it would drop? And if it is going up in the long term then why sell any if you have such contempt for "short-term"?

    Perhaps you wanted to think "short-term" and make a trade or two then, the same trade you express so much contempt for then? Sorry but your posts just dont add up...
    Jul 22, 2015. 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook on Q3 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]

    I already did. At $131. I covered the short yesterday in AH at the 200 DMA when it didn't break through. Thanks for buying @131. The profits more than 10X paid for the hedging calls I bought.

    I'll be glad to sell you the almost worthless calls I hold since you are so bullish.


    Deja Vu
    Jul 22, 2015. 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook on Q3 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    The guy who buys the supplies and keeps the restaurant well stocked can't replace the dead chef. Timmy is just a supply chain guy. He has exactly zero creative genius.
    Jul 21, 2015. 10:31 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will India Be The Next Domino To Fall To Apple? [View article]
    Just curious, have you ever been to India? My random guess from this article is - probably not.

    There was an interesting article a few years ago about the launch of the iPhone in India. While there were lines everywhere, at the only store in Delhi selling it, there were a couple of bored cows munching waste paper outside the store.

    That pretty much sums it up for Apple in India. Have you ever read the comments threads in India's largest newspaper The Times of India, when they review Apple products? It is one long chain of mockery and disdain.

    Even among Indians in the US, the highest per capita income ethnic group (yes, even more than whites) in the US, Samsung/Android holds a far greater sway than Apple
    Jun 5, 2015. 01:30 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Is Making Luxury Watchmakers Uncomfortable [View article]
    I agree with your thesis. I saw a luxury watch maker. He was quite uncomfortable. He was having cramps in his side from laughing at the Apple Watch.
    Jun 2, 2015. 10:21 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Zenith Behind Us, Nadir On The Horizon [View article]
    Samsung and Apple at first were friends;
    But when a pique began,
    Apple, to gain some private ends,
    Went mad and bit the man.

    Samsung's wound it seemed both sore and sad
    To every fanboi's eye;
    And while they swore Android was mad,
    They swore Samsung would die.

    But soon a wonder came to light
    to show the fanbois they lied
    Samsung recovered of the bite
    Twas the Apple that died
    Apr 30, 2015. 01:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Apple TV? Ask Why, Not When [View article]
    Apple's dream of content owners signing exclusive deals with Apple at throwaway prices to enable Apple to sell expensive hardware to the public is proving to be just that - a dream.

    After the music industry fiasco, the video/tv/film industry is making sure that no hardware manufacturer gets anything as an exclusive, gets anything cheap....

    Apple is never going to be the must have distributor in the hardware chain...the content industry will support the rokus, the google dongles, the amazon tablets, the android phones, you name it...Apple will just be one of many channels of distribution of content...

    Apple seems to be baffled that content industry is not rushing to deliver itself into bondage to Apple...Also Apple doesn't seem to know how to negotiate with people who can't be pushed around like Les Moonves of CBS (yeah, Apple will get some CBS content)...I think Apple is too used to bullying tiny app developers...

    Frankly, most people buy iPhones and what not as a "status" symbol. No one else is in the living room to see whether you are streaming your netflix on a roku or a Apple TV box...
    Mar 29, 2015. 07:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Apple Making A Gold Watch? [View article]
    The bull argument here seems to be "Chinese rich will buy it"

    Guess the loss of 1/3 the brokerage account on the strength of the exact same argument for TSLA hasn't taught too many lessons.....
    Mar 13, 2015. 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Notes On Cars (And Apple) [View article]
    I believe the true niche for a self drive car will be in large retirement communities that are the size of small towns and large enough to support all the usual amenities of life (restaurant chains, walmarts, movie theaters etc).

    Such a community would embed sensors in the roads (or whatever else) to aid self driven cars which would be possible on a town level scale.

    Currently when older folks lose their drivers license its a sentence of life imprisonment. Older folks would move to such towns and still be able to lead a fairly normal life (go the library, golf, starbucks, grocery store, doctor) without being able to drive a car and without the costs, dangers and inconveniences of living in a large city.
    Mar 3, 2015. 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Winning The Profit Battle, Losing The Smartphone War [View article]

    Exellent article. One thing I wish to add

    Previously the US carriers

    - Bundled the phone subsidies into the plan with a 24 month period
    - Made the consumer pay back the implicit subsidy even if they did not get a new phone
    - Did not lower the plan cost for buying an Android phone instead of an Apple Phone

    So the consumer

    - Usually bought a new phone along with a 24 month plan regardless of whether they wanted a new phone
    - Did not see any cost savings from buying an Android phone
    - Usually needed a new phone because of advances in screen size, resolution, processing power, data speeds etc

    Now the US carriers

    - Have unbundled the plan and the phone subsidy
    - The plan stands on its own w/ no term
    - the handset cost is spread out over a 24 month installment plan with the balance due immediately if the consumer terminates the plan

    So for the US consumer now

    - The phone cost is presented directly as cost of phone/24 installments
    - Savings accrue from not buying new phones. This can be $30/month based on $700/24 installments to $35/month based on $850/24 installments
    - Monthly savings for a family of 4 can be $120-$140 if the family chooses not to buy new phones

    The effect of this is to

    - Provide a incentive to lengthen phone upgrade times
    - Favor cheaper Android handsets since now the cost flows to the consumer. Previously the consumer paid the same regardless of whether the consumer bought an Android or an Apple handset
    - Will provide a incentive for the first time to the average consumer to shift away from Apple

    For my part, when my installments are paid off for my Galaxy Note 3, my family plan bill will drop nearly $120 per month from $250+ right now to $130+. Now that I have an incentive to not buy a new handset, I'll be using my Note 3 till it can no longer handle the load. Which given the oomph it has under the hood, will be a long time.
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Dear iPhone 6, Meet Desay Mirror X5 [View article]
    Jaguar went broke and was sold to's a Tata brand now...
    Jan 15, 2015. 12:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Yes To Action Cameras, Beating GoPro Is Easy [View article]
    To address the market for an Apple ("the innovation company" har har) knockoff of GoPro, we should first look at the market for GoPro itself.

    The novelty of GoPro is really wearing off. Search Youtube and you find zillions of hours of GoPro video posted by surfers, dirtbikers, skateboarders, climber etc etc etc. Most of these have little or no hits.

    Frankly, most people don't even have the time to see the video they take themselves, let alone video shot by other people. We are all being deluged by flood of pictures and video. Pictures at least can be skimmed in a fraction of a second. But video being shared really, really sucks.

    I think GoPro should change its name to "GroanPro" for the groans elicited from the audience on which said surfers and other oversharers inflict GroanPro video.

    I don't see the slightest difference for GroanPro type video created by Apple fanbois wearing an Apple brand GroanPro recording thier bike rides, p90x workouts and yoga classes...
    Jan 13, 2015. 11:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis: Apple Christmas Sales [View article]
    Actually, the market share of Apple in US/Europe is much higher than the rest of the world barring Japan.

    So one may say to stretch a metaphor, iPhone = turkey, android = chicken, week of Christmas = thanksgiving. Yes in our metaphorical world, Christians do prefer turkeys around thanksgiving.
    Dec 31, 2014. 04:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis: Apple Christmas Sales [View article]
    does the author realize that most of the world is NOT christian and doesn't celebrate christmas? Christmas tends to be celebrated more in US and Europe than in India and China...iPhone activations from iPhone given as Christmas presents therefore would be closer to iPhone market share in US/Europe (and probably briefly exceed as all the phones purchased in the thanksgiving-christmas period get activated in the week right after christmas).

    It's sort of like comparing turkey eating stats for the week of thanksgiving and proclaiming that turkey had overtaken chicken as the no 1 poultry dish in the US.
    Dec 30, 2014. 08:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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