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Deja Vu

 
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  • Why Analysts Are Wrong About Apple [View article]
    "reasonable assumptions" on volumes and margins on products categories that no one knows anything about? How about "speculation on vaporware unlikely to appear from a CEO who has so far produced recycled iterations"?
    Jun 16 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xiaomi Is A Big Threat To Apple [View article]
    If Apple wants to use another low information jingoistic jury in Cupertino to attack Xiaomi, then I can guarantee you Apple will not be selling iPhones in China for too long.
    Jun 12 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Was Wrong About Apple [View article]
    Michael,

    While I fully agree with your thesis, the market psychology must also be considered. Currently the market is euphoria in general and about Apple in particular.

    Also introduction of the iPhone 6 along with the rise of programs like At&T's Next (which allows for early upgrades - at no upfront cost, though the deluded consumers will pay through their nose later) will pull forward demand from upcoming quarters. So I will not be surprised if Apple reports "blowout" numbers in the later half of this year.

    Yes, then there will a hangover from the party. But being a short means getting both what will happen and when it will happen right. I agree with the what will happen in the long run, but the when remains an issue. One cannot risk shorting the shares directly without call protection or one must buy puts and put spreads. Both forms of protected shorting require a sunset date and theta decay.

    Going along with the market psychology and limiting my risks I have been serially buying call spreads and making good money. I think until the clear signs of a top manifest, this may be a better strategy.
    Jun 9 08:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Digesting WWDC: Cloudy [View article]
    "Apple invented the smartphone as we know it 7 years ago and since then the concept has been built out."

    Ex employees of Palm and RIMM, HTC (who sold me a rectangle with rounded corners and a touchescreen in 2005) and a few others would disagree.

    Viewing Apple with rose colored spectacles leads to obvious bias. Almost all the features Apple shamelessly copied from Android have been in Android & google for years (OK some maybe a year). I mean stuff like syncing photos, email, 3rd party keyboards, predictive suggestions, activating Siri without touching the phone, widgets, replying to messages without opening an app, continuity, using microphone to send audio clips, I could go on but the whole WWDC was basically "Look ma, I copied Google"

    Rose colored spectacles leads to mistaken visions such as "Apple invented the airplane" And the internet. And the smartphone.
    Jun 5 07:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The $500 Apple Put: Backing Up The Truck On Buy Backs [View article]
    One little hint that CHL sales are slow and let me see Timmy and Uncle prop up the stock for more than a day or two. The image of King Louie & Baloo propping up the temple in Jungle Book comes to mind.

    http://bit.ly/1ezO4IX

    It's a negative that absent the company propping up its own stock, the stock would have sunk further. Somehow the author tries to spin that as a postive.
    Feb 14 05:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Buyback: Here Come The Critics [View article]
    CRM?...
    Feb 10 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Buyback: Here Come The Critics [View article]
    How about showing the outstanding share count chart on a scale with the y axis minimum set to zero? Doesn't look quite as impressive...
    Feb 10 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Tim Cook's Brilliant Move [View article]
    best comment on this whole thead.
    Feb 8 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Tim Cook's Brilliant Move [View article]
    1. Why not declare a special dividend and let shareholders decide whether or not they want to buy more Apple stock with that dividend? Since the idea of the buyback is to increase the ownership percentage of each remaining share, why not give shareholders that option by doing the dividend? Also just increasing the regular dividend would increase yield and more large institutional holders would buy the shares and reduce the volatility. Why reward short time traders (such as myself)?

    2. What happens if CHL sales come in light or overall China incremental sales come in light? If the shares drop, all Tim Cook really did was to provide those who dumped the stock with a nice safe exit and let down those holding the stock. If Apple bought 14B of stock and the price barely budged from $500, someone plural sold the 14B of stock with a nice floor. Note here that a special dividend would have benefited both those holding the stock and those selling.

    3. Did Carl Icahn have advance notice of the exact dates of the buyback as per his tweet he was "neck and neck" with Apple? Because I sure didn't. And had I known there was free put protection, I too would have bought Apple stock since there was downside protection. Was Carl Icahn tipped off by Apple and was he insider trading? I would sure like to know. If he was tipped off by Apple, was it a illegal bone at existing shareholder expense to keep him happy?
    Feb 7 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ecosystem Maths [View article]
    Looks like author started to write an article and then gave up abruptly and published what he had. Reminds me of many papers I graded as a TA in grad school. You always knew who started at last minute and then gave up.
    Jan 28 11:06 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Hit Apple's Last Two Quarters EPS Results: Here Are My December Quarter Projections [View article]
    You may be right. Andy Zaky was also right on all his bullish forecasts. Until he wasn't.
    Jan 27 02:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: One Incredible China Stat [View article]
    One simple question -

    Did Tim Cook provide any source for this 57% number?

    Answer - No, he did not. Maybe you believe there are atomic particles called "ultrons" and "purons" in your detergent also.
    Jan 23 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's A8 -- What It Will Be And Why It Matters [View article]
    A7 A8 ....equivalent of cars with tail fins and chrome
    Jan 10 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple At $525 A Share Would Be A Gift [View article]
    He says @532.5, its not worth buying, but at 1.4% below, at 525 it becomes compelling. If Apple was split 1-10, could anyone say with a straight face "At 52.5 it is a steal...I'm not sure I'd buy at 53.25"
    Jan 10 01:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple In India - The 'Mercedes' Argument Does Not Make Sense [View article]
    One of the key arguments the "marketshare does not matter" crowd misses, is that of negotiating power. With each percentage point decrease in market share, AAPL's power to demand favorable pricing and guaranteed volumes decreases.

    If only 1% or 2% of your customers want a iPhone, as a carrier you can ignore Apple and not see a loss in subscribers. If at all the carrier carries Apple, it will be on the carrier's terms, which will be the same terms it extends to other handset makers.

    Without guaranteed volume contracts with Apple, a carrier has zero incentive to spend marketing dollars to push iPhones which means Apple will have spend a significant chunk of its own revenues to market the Iphones.

    The only reason Apple is able to demand premium pricing and volume guarantees in US , Japan etc is *because* of market share. If Apple had the same 2-6% market share in US as it does in India and China, Apple would have no volume guarantees and will be forced to accede to carrier demands to share handset profits. Carriers will simple refuse to carry Iphones since they will not fear loss of subscribers.

    Apple does not have any viable strategy except to rely on the customers who get a "subsidized" handset as part of a two year contract and hence are directly shielded from the price. This is why the T-Mobile handset pricing and contract seperation is a such a threat to Apple, since for the first time the postpaid contract subscribers will be directly exposed to the phone pricing of Apple. Up until now, a lot of folks genuinely think they get a phone for "free", for "99 bucks" and for "$199" bucks.

    The 5C is priced for the low information folks who believe that the 5C costs "half" of a iPhone with a 2 year contract. If the T-mobile model spreads to oother carriers who are sick of not making handset profits with Apple, it will be a difficult time for Apple.
    Jan 2 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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