Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Delta Lima  

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Imminent Oil Shortages Ahead [View article]
    I saw the article earlier today - very interesting!
    Jun 3, 2010. 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What the IEA Doesn't Want You to Know About Peak Oil [View article]
    The last 2 books of Stephen Leeb are very good for this subject.

    Gold, in the mid/long term is a good investment.



    On Sep 06 09:33 AM EX-AD-MAN wrote:

    > Seeking Alpha is by name and function a site dedicated to profitable
    > investing. I would love to hear thoughts on how an individual can
    > best capitalize on the peak oil scenarios depicted above?
    Sep 6, 2009. 10:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Oil for Dummies [View article]
    I never said Al Gore was an energy expert. I quoted him to show Peak Oil was now mainstream...


    On Aug 11 09:44 PM captainccs wrote:

    > >>>Over the past decade, a fierce debate has emerged amongst energy
    > experts about whether global oil production was about to reach a
    > peak, followed by an irreversible decline.
    >
    > Al Gore is a politician, not an expert. Least of all on oil.
    Aug 12, 2009. 04:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Oil for Dummies [View article]
    USGS is well-known to be overly optimistic…

    I've been in touch with top-officials at the IEA and EIA (US Department of Energy) and they recognise Peak Oil is imminent (not publicly...). Read the news in the coming months...


    On Aug 10 04:19 PM timertim wrote:

    > SORRY THE FIRST COMMENT WAS SENT BEFORE READY.
    > Lionel, you write a learned article and footnote it well. I can tell
    > you have done your homework. Unfortunately, the credibility of the
    > sources are as thin as their arguments. You start out referencing
    > Dick Cheney. All Gore, and British Petroleum. Every one of those
    > has a clear monetary agenda for convincing us we are running out
    > of oil. What major owner of oil stocks, or what oil company, does
    > not want to convince the world that their commodity is incredibly
    > scarce. Outrageous profits are (man)made with scarce commodities.
    > They don’t even have to be scarce, just organize a global price fixing
    > cartel and convince people that your commodity is scarce. This not
    > only helps you gouge everyone, it discourages competition.
    >
    > Every footnote referenced is a source with an axe to grind. Those
    > readers who are seeking the truth so that they can make informed
    > decisions, might want to reference some serious experts that pursue
    > real science (unlike All Gore); Someone without a profit or political
    > motive. Say someone like the U.S. Geological Survey.
    >
    > I suggest reading the U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY WORLD PETROLEUM ASSESSMENT
    > 2000 - DESCRIPTION AND RESULTS, located at pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-060/.
    > Inquiring minds will learn on page 55, of the 183 page, exhaustive
    > report that the objective scientist at the USGS estimate the world
    > has 5.558 trillion barrels of oil (including natural gas equivalents).
    > At 85 million barrels a day, that would last 161 years. Look it up
    > and make up your own mind. If you really want to enjoy an informative
    > read on how we are feed misinformation go to www.runet.edu/~wkovarik/oil/.
    >
    >
    > Always look at the facts and where they come from,
    > TIMERTIM
    Aug 10, 2009. 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Oil for Dummies [View article]
    Thanks! (most of the research was done for my dissertation.. )


    On Aug 10 11:25 AM Jack Walker wrote:

    > Lionel,
    >
    > Thanks for this contribution, you must have spent a great deal of
    > time in its preparation.
    >
    > Jack
    Aug 10, 2009. 11:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Second Great Depression Imminent? [View article]
    What you say is not only false but very dangerous. Today nobody argues against Peak Oil (only the date) besides Exxon Mobil and the Saudi Aramco (both known for their great scientific objectivity…). You can deny it, but reality speaks by itself.

    Listen to what Matthew Simmons says, he knows the energy market in the US as no one else. Why? His company, Simmons&Company (largest energy investment bank in the world) finances most energy projects in the USA. That’s why he advised Bush on energy in his 2000 electoral campaign. So if there is a problem in the energy market he knows about it.

    You say there’s plenty of oil, yes there is but no longer the cheap and easy one. In addition, new projects take about 10 years to be developed (and are often not even profitable). Peak Oil is not the end of oil, but the end of cheap and abundant oil. Tell me how the economy and growth will continue once you take off the cheap energy that created the system? Unlike global warming we won’t have to wait 30 years to see it, only 3 or 5 years; I hope Peak Oil is wrong, but the consequences could be devastating. Denying the problem as you do, will only make things worst.

    “When the cabin crew admits to anxiety, it is time to panic. The International Energy Agency has always brushed off claims that oil will soon dry up, adopting the tone of a nonchalant air steward guiding jittery travellers through turbulence. This morning, however, the organisation's chief economist, Fatih Birol, tells the Guardian that he expects global production will stop growing in around 2020. It is a remarkable turnaround for the IEA, which only three years ago was insisting that there was no fundamental reason why oil should not continue to grease the cogs of the global economy.” (www.guardian.co.uk/com...)

    LB



    On Dec 16 07:58 AM petersterling wrote:

    > What a load of rubbish. All we have to do is switch to making flexi-fuel
    > cars, able to run on CNG-gasoline and the problem is solved for 200
    > years. America has discovered 120 years supply of natural gas in
    > shales etc., recently. My company alone could provide 10% of America's
    > natural gas needs from offshore North Carolina and the Bering Sea
    > Deeps resources.
    >
    > America has 400 years supply of oil in shales in Colorado-Utah-Wyoming,
    > which can be retorted into oil for $30 per barrel anytime we want.
    >
    >
    > Peak oil is totally, completely wrong. There's tons of oil and gas
    > available at the right price, which is probably $75 per barrel or
    > more. At today's oil price the oil companies won't bother opening
    > any new fields because there's no profit in it. Once the price goes
    > back up we will be turning the tap on big time and there will be
    > plenty for everyone...
    Dec 16, 2008. 09:59 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Second Great Depression Imminent? [View article]
    Your comment is interesting. I am a student currently doing research to write my degree’s dissertation (How Peak Oil will affect International Relations) and so I have been able to interview several of the best known energy experts, pessimists and optimists. Most but not all of the pessimists have plans to live in a post-Peak Oil world, such as moving to isolated sustainable farms. They are not uneducated crazy people who believe in UFOs or other weird conspiracy theories… They are former oil companies’ executives (at Total, Amoco, BP), top geologists, and there’s even one former French Environment Minister. I don’t judge that but the problem, Peak Oil, is very serious.

    Another example I can give: last summer (1 August 2008) I interviewed IEA’s former Director (long-term planning, LTO Office) a French geophysicist who used to be Director of Economic Studies at Total (one of the 6 “supermajors”), he currently works as an advisor for the French Government. At the end of the hour long interview I asked him if he was rather pessimistic. He answered me very seriously: “I think we are at the end of mankind; the only ones who will survive will be extremely educated and mobile people”, before telling me how economic growth was dependent on cheap energy. I don’t necessarily agree with that, but when we look at the facts and current developments there are no reasons to be optimistic.

    While human ingenuity often surprises us, history is here to remind us that several civilisations did not escape an undesired fall; as mentioned by the historian Dr. Joseph Tainter, throughout history, the first of eleven recurrent reasons in the explanation of societal collapses, is “the depletion or cessation of a vital resource or resources on which the society depends” (The Collapse of Complex Societies, p.42). What we need is a Manhattan Project to develop alternative energies, but time is running out fast.





    On Dec 15 02:18 PM Gold Barron wrote:

    > So are you guys saying that when peak oil hits there will be mass
    > anarchy in the streets and everybody will be poor?
    >
    > I agree that the supply of oil will decline in coming years, but
    > hopefully new technology will make up the difference. I am positive
    > everything will be okay.
    >
    > It seems you guys talking about peak oil are almost talking about
    > "Mad Max" or "Road Warrior" like outcomes in the future that I find
    > very very hard to envision. You may not be describing it as I just
    > did, but you are certainly implying complete anarchy. If you believe
    > what you are saying, I recommend you purchase a fortress somewhere
    > in Alaska stocked with plenty of food, supplies, and weapons, because
    > our gold and silver wont be any good when there are raging starving
    > lunatics running through the streets killing everybody and burning
    > everything down.
    >
    > For the past 3 months the level of paranoia is increasing amongst
    > the people posting on these comment sections. The same sort of people
    > that believe in Aliens and Bigfoot. You know? You can see them at
    > your local gun shows or flea markets. Paranoid, weak, uneducated
    > cowards.
    >
    >
    Dec 15, 2008. 05:06 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • From Subprime to Meltdown: Is Peak Oil Responsible? [View article]
    I acknowledge some disagree, however I don’t think this blog (peakoildebunked.blogsp...) offers a trustful and valuable counter-argumentation.

    This is a well known report against Peak Oil, written by CERA: www.cera.com/aspx/cda/...

    Here is a response from Chris Skrebowski (former long-term planner for BP, previous senior analyst for the Saudi Oil Ministry and Editor of the influential Petroleum Review) to the arguments CERA develops in the report:

    globalpublicmedia.com/...

    There was a debate about the danger of smoking (companies refuted this claim for many decades before conceding their mistake), there has been one on climate change since the 1970s, which is almost over (not surprisingly ExxonMobil who argues Peak Oil is not an issue, was an active voice against human climate change) and today there is one on Peak Oil (unfortunately it may have started too late). Instinctively I would rather trust independent geologists than corrupt and autocratic countries of the OPEC or a company like ExxonMobil.

    In recent years “Peakists” have gained ground, in light with indisputable facts, namely the increase in oil prices (from 18dollars in 1998 to 147 in July 2008, around 800% while demand has kept rising-total inelastic commodity) and the stagnation of oil production. In fact if you check the numbers available on the webpage of the EIA, they even show a small decline in global oil production since 2005, 84.58 Million Barrels per Day (in 2006, 84.54 and 2007, 84.44; 2008 is not yet available obviously) a decline while oil prices were skyrocketing. And yes, Peak Oil may have already happened, but we’ll have to wait a few more years to be sure.

    However, during my interview with Dr. Campbell, he added on this issue, “a debate rages as to the date and height of peak, which I think rather misses the point when what matters - and matters greatly - is the vision of the long decline that comes into sight on the other side of it”. I can only agree with him.

    And to answer Michael Pinilla, you are right, Peak Oil is no longer a theory but a reality; I will correct it in the future.

    Thanks for all your comments.
    Oct 20, 2008. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Was 'Peak Oil' a Multi-Billion Dollar Hoax? [View article]
    As I try to explain in my article the current financial crisis is directly linked to Peak Oil. The current events that nobody saw coming, were already announced in as early as 2006 by Dr. Colin Campbell, a geologist, former Vice-President of Fina Oil Company and founder of the ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil). On a video interview available on YouTube, he declared:

    “Expansion becomes impossible without abundant cheap energy. So I think that the debt of the world is going bad. That speaks of a financial crisis, unseen, probably equalling the Great Depression of 1930; it’s probable we face the Second Great Depression. It would be a chain reaction, one bank would fail, and another one would fail, industries will close…”

    So “Peakists” are not surprised at all by current events, and it does not contradict their explanations. In addition, I would instinctively not trust corrupt and autocratic regimes of the OPEC (such as Saudi-Arabia) as you do. This quote from Sadad al-Huseini, the former Head of Exploration and Production at Saudi Aramco tells a lot about the situation and the flawed official message from the KSA:

    “The evidence is that in spite of the increases - very large increases - in oil prices over the last four years, we haven't been able to match that with increasing capacity. So, essentially, we are on a plateau.” (www.davidstrahan.com/b...)

    The following comment from Dr. Chalabi, the former OPEC Secretary-General, gives additional information about how the cartel really works:

    “OPEC countries do not care about what might happen 20 years from now. They care about what they get today. Because, these are politicians, they want more money, to spend rationally or not. What may happen 20 years from now… by that time they are dead, they don’t care!” (video.google.fr/videop...)


    And finally if we look at the official numbers from the EIA (available in their webpage), we see that global oil production reached a maximum in 2005 (84.58 Million Barrels Per Day), then declined in 2006 (84.54) and 2007 (84.44), while oil prices were skyrocketing (18dollars in 1998 to 147 in July 2008, 800%).

    So yes Peak Oil may have already happened, we will have to wait a few more years to be sure. However, during my interview with Dr. Campbell, he added on this issue, “a debate rages as to the date and height of peak, which I think rather misses the point when what matters - and matters greatly - is the vision of the long decline that comes into sight on the other side of it”. I can only agree with him.





    Oct 20, 2008. 08:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does the Financial Crisis Affect the Peak Oil Thesis? [View article]
    As I say in the article, Peak Oil is likely to be the key, yet ignored cause of the financial crisis (which finds its roots in the subprime crisis).

    In 2006, interest rates were raised in the USA, so the monthly bill, usually poor borrowers of subprime mortgages had to pay, rose dramatically, until they could no longer pay it and saw their houses confiscated; thus contributing to the housing market plunge.

    Finally, interest rates were increased in order to fight rising inflation, which started with the dramatic surge in oil prices the world faced over the past few years. So yes, the financial crisis finds its roots in the oil crisis and nobody seems to care about it.

    The current events that nobody saw coming, were already announced in as early as 2006 by Dr. Colin Campbell, a renowned geologist:

    "Expansion becomes impossible without abundant cheap energy. So I think that the debt of the world is going bad. That speaks of a financial crisis, unseen, probably equalling the Great Depression of 1930; it's probable we face the Second Great Depression. It would be a chain reaction, one bank would fail, and another one would fail, industries will close…"

    www.ireport.com/docs/D...
    Oct 17, 2008. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
10 Comments
21 Likes