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  • Why Stocks Won't Crash (For Now) [View article]
    In other words, you have no clue what will happen.
    Apr 14 01:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Apparel: Disappointed, But Still Bullish And Looking Ahead To 2014 [View article]
    The 1.10 - 1.25 range is not holding now. Additionally, they also have the option for a shelf offering which would dilute their outstanding shares.
    With folks turning to online shopping instead of in-store shopping, american apparel will not do well. Their has to be some change in their business plan or branding. Currently, they are getting beat by AnF, Urban Outfitters, H&M, Macys', etc. Go to any American Apparel store and you can hear a pin drop.
    Their Same Sales Stores was lower Y/Y that's a bad sign! No amount of weather can change that.
    Feb 13 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tiger Oil And Energy Inc.: Why It Could Drop Big In The Blink Of An Eye [View article]
    what's your next article on?
    Jan 9 01:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tiger Oil And Energy Inc.: Why It Could Drop Big In The Blink Of An Eye [View article]
    Great article...it dumped hard these past few days
    Jan 8 01:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tiger Oil And Energy Inc.: Why It Could Drop Big In The Blink Of An Eye [View article]
    Great call. You are modern day nostradamus
    Dec 27 01:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patriot Coal Bonds Show Potential In Bankruptcy [View article]
    In hindsight, the bonds lost almost 99% of their value.
    Dec 18 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Ownership In Patriot Coal Shares Threatened By Bankruptcy Proceedings [View article]
    What happens to the existing Bonds? Do they get claims to the new shares of the company?
    Dec 17 02:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Apparel: Disappointed, But Still Bullish And Looking Ahead To 2014 [View article]
    I can't access it. What are your 3-5 year Revenue Estimates? Can you post here?
    Dec 12 12:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Apparel: Disappointed, But Still Bullish And Looking Ahead To 2014 [View article]
    I ran my own valuation and come up with ~$8 utilizing a 5 year DCF. I have revenues of $673MM 2014E and $686MM 2015E.
    Dec 12 12:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Apparel: Disappointed, But Still Bullish And Looking Ahead To 2014 [View article]
    Good article...What do you see as the Revenue Growth %? Compounded growth rate I have about 2-3%.
    Dec 12 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Fannie Mae's Insurance Business Being Bought By Bruce Berkowitz And Other Investors? [View article]
    At least we know the common shares have some "value" as opposed to having "no value" at all.
    Nov 14 02:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Sell All Long-Term Bonds Now? Not Necessarily [View article]
    What do you think about Cliffs bonds and where they are priced now? They look good and have yields 7.7%+
    Oct 2 11:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Sell All Long-Term Bonds Now? Not Necessarily [View article]
    What happened to your holding in AKS, AA, and CLF Bonds? Why do you fail to mention Duration and Convexity in all of your articles?
    Sep 25 12:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take A Look At These 4% To 8% Yielders [View article]
    When you write articles flashing the Coupon, you have to write about Duration, Convexity, and Interest Rate Risk!!!! This is equally important when factoring in coupons, yields, and maturity.

    All of these bonds have lost a lot of money recently because rates went up.
    Sep 25 12:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earn More Than 6% With These 4 Bonds [View article]
    the same Cliffs Bond is now priced at ~85. What the authour failed to mention was the inherent risk in long-dated bonds, in other words, Interest Rate Risk. The 30 year treasury yields were at historic lows in 2012 at ~2.5%. Currently now at ~3.7%. The 120 bp move in Rates caused bond prices to fall dramatically. I currently calculate a Duration of ~12.24%, which means for a 100bp move in rates the bond would have dropped by 12.24%. This doesn't factor in convexity, but is close enough approximation. His argument was correct in that coupons were solid but didn't take into account Interest Rate Risk, which knocked the price down from 99 to 85. A loss of 14%.

    Going forward, if the 30 year rate hits 4.7% the Cliffs bond would get priced around 75. Right now may be a good time to get into this as rates may have temporarily stabilized.
    Sep 25 12:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
125 Comments
78 Likes