In addition, in the conference at around 23 minutes or so in response to the merging of sat's/ programming, I challenge you to find where he did not say basically the same that he said in the Q1 CC I referenced above. Added color in this answer was they were reviewing these ten year old contracts carefully.... and that "you could measure the savings from the consolidation in terms of 100's of thousands of dollars, and that one mistake, or getting it wrong, could easily overwhelm that amount by one badly worded contract". I said millions, my interpretation, -he said that one mistake could easily overwhelm the 100's of thousands of dollars in savings.
I request your apology for your completely uncalled for behavior here on an otherwise respectful forum.
First let me just say how much I am saddened by this "unprofessional behavior". I did not name any names, but obviously Demian Russian, you feel the need to defend yourself and the authors that write for you. You have challenged my research and named your own author as the source of this "Breaking News" coming from the conference. You said this above:
First of all, you began your last paragraph with this sentence: "As had been previously discussed, the company is looking to move its programming to one platform, and that platform as described, would be XM’s."
"Previously discussed" by who? Amy Gilroy, Editor at CEoutlook as well as a contributing author at Satellite Radio Playground, and myself have been the only authors to write about this.
It was PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED DURING THE 2010 Q1 CONFERENCE CALL. Better Research brings out better articles and information. BY THE WAY, You need to remove all of my articles from your site, and stop displaying me as a Contributing Editor to Satellite Radio Playground. You obviously know that is no longer true.
HERE's the exchange in the CC between Mr. Frear and Mike Pace from JP Morgan:
Mike Pace – JP Morgan
To follow-up on the SAC question from earlier, although the OEMs are ......... that going forward?
"Two, what is left of the capital structure or covenants in order to collapse the two restricted groups and what financial or operational benefits might you see from that?"
David Frear
"Taking the last question first, we meet all the ratios so we under all the debt agreements could collapse the two companies now. There are a lot of contracts and a lot of them date back quite a number of years and so we are taking a look at all of the contractual arrangements to satisfy ourselves that if we were to go ahead and merge the two entities we don’t create an undesired outcome for any of our contracts. So we are working our way through that. We have said for a long time there is no inherent operational efficiency associated with merging the two entities. So there isn’t a cost efficiency driven imperative to go ahead and get it done. We will get it done in due course."
I am not going to justify any more of your accusations by wasting time in educating you or "picking on every word or nuance". My reputation stands on its own. I heard the call, and I heard the discussion. Ten Years to transition the cost of getting it wrong, far outweighs the benefit.
Stop Stalking Me and My articles and concentrate more on getting your own right....... Please? Last article that was published here, you argued as Nicholas, and not with me, but with another Seeking Alpha Contributor under my article. Totally unprofessional. This article you go over the top embarrassing an otherwise good job you do over there at the Playground with your interviews and radio show. This simply should stop and you need to get control of yourself......
I agree on the long term prospects here, as I have for years. My question about being added to the index is --With the general markets so nervous, will SIRI now be subject to general market pullbacks as we have seen with the Russell addition, or will it now meaningfully be rated "outperform"?
Also, should we start to see higher average daily volumes with this new found interest, or do you think we see lower more stable volume (this holiday week aside)?
Improvements in the Auto Industry Will Affect Sirius XM's Bottom Line [View article]
I'm a Baby Boomer.... on the cusp..... and I'd be foolish not to take a look at them now... Not to invest in, but certainly to monitor for the ability to provide excellent vehicles. A failure there by them, will have repercussions to my future, as all U.S. taxpayers are on the hook for their survival.
I'm not sure where the separation from what has happened to GM, and the American Taxpayer, falls short in connectivity to our own immediate future.
Improvements in the Auto Industry Will Affect Sirius XM's Bottom Line [View article]
Nice quote.... I am intensely interested in the the auto industry in general, and the U.S. auto manufacturers in particular. The U.S. manufacturers all have very attractive contracts with Sirius, Ford and Chrysler, and GM have a revised contract with XM that goes back to the first installed Satellite Radios; now the secondary market fore Sat Rad. On Star now on its own and soon to be available on more brands, was given birth by GM and is sitting on an XM platform.
Just about all cars sold in the U.S. are assembled here in one form, shape, or another, and your point about Kia and Hyundai is compelling with their growth being what it has been, Mazda not "zoom zooming" so much.... Honda and Toyota, other big players with pretty "stale brands" and not particularly loyal to Sat Rad... are relative unknowns towards the future... but relevant just the same. European brands have warmed up, and when the Fiat 500 comes out in strength for Chrysler Group will have a Sat Rad in the dash.
My giving information in a consolidated format for the U.S. automakers, with GM coming out with an IPO is "TIMELY" and not exclusive of all other automakers.....
I don't disagree with the logic of increase CPO decreasing SAC per say, but it really has little to do with the number. CPO is another improved margin sub, with little to no SAC cost.
I would rather look at CPO as an improved revenue margin metric effect, than a decreased expense. The SAC expense will not be influenced by CPO, but rather by increased new OEM sales, which it is actually primarily consisting of.
As the economy improves and growth comes back to OEM's, while high margin subscriptions such as CPO, Premium Internet, Smartphone only, Business Subs, also will grow, SAC from their automotive partners will increase in total, but not necessarily on a "per unit" basis. Metrics from CPO will be more and more asked for by analysts going forward so that SAC can more appropriately built into the models.
Brandon, Would you like me to post the article on Newmarketplayers? I know it would help me more than you, but it may also give a heads up to some investors who are scratching their heads.
It's relevant and addresses so many concerns out there. I think we see the analysts similarly, but your insight comes with a working knowledge of the investment community. A rare view into a smoke-and-mirrors world.
Sirius: Analysts Weigh In on Q3 Earnings and Beyond [View article]
Javko,
I appreciate your comments and would be more than willing to discuss my views on each analyst. Come and visit over at the website where a more detailed response and back and forth can take place..... Just check my profile for the website and stop by.
Sirius: Analysts Weigh In on Q3 Earnings and Beyond [View article]
Hey Brandon, .. Thanks for stopping by..... Questioning Analyst motives, their basis for recommendations, and overall performance in evaluating companies is why I now have my own website. Criticisms from Co-Hosts regarding questions asked to analysts because they may make the analyst uncomfortable, is never a good path to go down...... If their analysis and positions are well founded, their explanations and answers to the questions are what is valued by listeners.
Sirius: Analysts Weigh In on Q3 Earnings and Beyond [View article]
Unless you are a one of the owners at the playground, I fail to see how my summary affects you so...... Sounds like your getting all you need from over there, so why are you here knocking my view.
It is never my intention to "move markets". I wonder which of the analysts reports above is moving Sirius XM's market today. This is simply a summary of analyst opinions, and some color on what makes sense and what does not. You remind me of someone I once new, you take information out of context to serve your own view.
When I state that Janco partners moving from a Buy to Accumulate, and the analyst apparently is using a growth number that no one else is for 2011 EBITDA, and that is confusing to retail investors, that's not talking down to them. That's just talking to them with a good handle on the facts.
When Miller Tabak's David Joyce, downgrades the company at a 1.25 on Sept 30th, and the stock price goes to a PM 1.62 the day of the call, and then he reiterates the downgrade, while raising his longer term target. I think that is confusing to retail investors.
When David Bank, completely misses the stock price run up and keeps his target price at the end of August at $1.00, and then when the stock runs and closes at 1.58, the company reports excellent execution of their business model, and states they are handling the competition in the dashboard very well, David Bank raises his target price to 1.25, I think that is more than just confusing.
Sirius: Analysts Weigh In on Q3 Earnings and Beyond [View article]
Why ask why..... you seem to have all the answers. If you do not value the opinion that I gave on the analyst reports and the timing of them. That is your prerogative. This is a summary of reports, when they were released, my reasons for their timing as I understand them, and which ones I feel have some things right and how some are just getting it all wrong, --David Bank comes to mind. By the way David Bank's price target this time may come true in the short term, but for all the wrong reasons.
I also put little faith in reports written for the sake of writing them. I particularly like it when an analyst moves a stock from Buy to Accumulate. I find that very helpful. Or reports without any value, like the Gabelli, Tabak, and Janco Partners' report. These reports only confuse retail investors. If you want a written report, just rewritten, then go to the Playground. That's where all the cut and past is going on.
Points of Interest From Sirius Q3 Conference Call [View article]
Hey Relmor nice run down of the "less than obvious". The rest seem to focus on total revenue, but focusing on advertising is important. Mel stated early on that 10% of revenue coming from advertising would be his target. As a subscription business that's not a bad goal. Seems less relevant with revenues at the level they were at when he stated the goal, but for 2010 were looking at over $2.8B and 10% wouldn't look too shabby. He's still got plenty of room before achieving that goal, but for Mel its got to be on his radar. With an expansion of Bandwidth of 25% with 2.0, those new channels might just do it....
Also take a look at that Other Revenue line item. He has David Frear tell analysts that the amount from Music Royalty fees is pretty much stable and fully integrated, and then they go and grow it again Q over Q. This line item is why they are profitable and beating analysts estimates. Gives ARPU a new meaning and was a nice call with the FCC agreements. With $71M in the total line item, that is 10% of total revenue. Very nice.
Well I just stopped in to say Hi, and keep up the good work....
With all do respect, your opinion of the trading the day of the call is probably correct, but the flip on that trade went from low 1.60's to 1.43. Many of the the reasons the stock came back was the completion of the trade as evidenced by the high volume of 185M shares trade, but that is another discussion.
As far as addressing SAC, your comment is just not the case. Although the SAC line item in the budget decreased Q over Q, from ~$130M to ~$106M, their per gross sub add #, remained the same at $59. Further review of this metric would show a 43% decrease in subscriber adds, with only a 19% decrease in actual expense attributed to SAC on the income statement, Q2 (583K net adds) to Q3 (334K net adds). We're left to assume that more CPO, high margin subs were sold in Q2 vs Q3, to account for the non-linear percentage differences.
Other than talking about improving bandwidth efficiencies with 2.0, not much was added by Mel. Just another way of saying as he already has, "we will be expanding our channel line-up with 2.0".
The company has put in a very solid quarter, but it is the content issue that some are focused on. It is also the more apparent reason for not projecting 2011 numbers yet until these content costs are known.
A fair assessment, but I released the article early Friday morning, its being picked up here over the weekend.... For a more current first read on my articles, go to the blog at Newmarketplayers.com.
Liberty Media, Sirius Q3 Earnings: Exciting Times, Indeed [View article]
I'm not sure I understand your point. The 123% increase is for the year starting January 1st, 2010 = SP at .69 cents. November 1st 2010, the stock price closed at $1.54. You do the math.
The 17 months that the company waited for FCC and DOJ compliance was a dificult time for sure, with SIRI hovering around $2.75, Dropping to $2.20 just days before the merger, and to $1.49 days after the merger when the XM $1.3B in loans was announced. One was a $778M , 13% Senior Note due 2013, and the other the $550M Convertible Note with 263M shares lent to short the stock, and with a price set for the shares at $1.50.
Sirius Conference Highlights - Solid Balance Sheet, Improved EBITDA, Increased FCF [View article]
I request your apology for your completely uncalled for behavior here on an otherwise respectful forum.
Sirius Conference Highlights - Solid Balance Sheet, Improved EBITDA, Increased FCF [View article]
First of all, you began your last paragraph with this sentence:
"As had been previously discussed, the company is looking to move its programming to one platform, and that platform as described, would be XM’s."
"Previously discussed" by who? Amy Gilroy, Editor at CEoutlook as well as a contributing author at Satellite Radio Playground, and myself have been the only authors to write about this.
It was PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED DURING THE 2010 Q1 CONFERENCE CALL. Better Research brings out better articles and information. BY THE WAY, You need to remove all of my articles from your site, and stop displaying me as a Contributing Editor to Satellite Radio Playground. You obviously know that is no longer true.
HERE's the exchange in the CC between Mr. Frear and Mike Pace from JP Morgan:
Mike Pace – JP Morgan
To follow-up on the SAC question from earlier, although the OEMs are ......... that going forward?
"Two, what is left of the capital structure or covenants in order to collapse the two restricted groups and what financial or operational benefits might you see from that?"
David Frear
"Taking the last question first, we meet all the ratios so we under all the debt agreements could collapse the two companies now. There are a lot of contracts and a lot of them date back quite a number of years and so we are taking a look at all of the contractual arrangements to satisfy ourselves that if we were to go ahead and merge the two entities we don’t create an undesired outcome for any of our contracts. So we are working our way through that. We have said for a long time there is no inherent operational efficiency associated with merging the two entities. So there isn’t a cost efficiency driven imperative to go ahead and get it done. We will get it done in due course."
I am not going to justify any more of your accusations by wasting time in educating you or "picking on every word or nuance". My reputation stands on its own. I heard the call, and I heard the discussion. Ten Years to transition the cost of getting it wrong, far outweighs the benefit.
Stop Stalking Me and My articles and concentrate more on getting your own right....... Please? Last article that was published here, you argued as Nicholas, and not with me, but with another Seeking Alpha Contributor under my article. Totally unprofessional. This article you go over the top embarrassing an otherwise good job you do over there at the Playground with your interviews and radio show. This simply should stop and you need to get control of yourself......
Sirius Conference Highlights - Solid Balance Sheet, Improved EBITDA, Increased FCF [View article]
I agree on the long term prospects here, as I have for years. My question about being added to the index is --With the general markets so nervous, will SIRI now be subject to general market pullbacks as we have seen with the Russell addition, or will it now meaningfully be rated "outperform"?
Also, should we start to see higher average daily volumes with this new found interest, or do you think we see lower more stable volume (this holiday week aside)?
Improvements in the Auto Industry Will Affect Sirius XM's Bottom Line [View article]
I'm not sure where the separation from what has happened to GM, and the American Taxpayer, falls short in connectivity to our own immediate future.
Improvements in the Auto Industry Will Affect Sirius XM's Bottom Line [View article]
Just about all cars sold in the U.S. are assembled here in one form, shape, or another, and your point about Kia and Hyundai is compelling with their growth being what it has been, Mazda not "zoom zooming" so much.... Honda and Toyota, other big players with pretty "stale brands" and not particularly loyal to Sat Rad... are relative unknowns towards the future... but relevant just the same. European brands have warmed up, and when the Fiat 500 comes out in strength for Chrysler Group will have a Sat Rad in the dash.
My giving information in a consolidated format for the U.S. automakers, with GM coming out with an IPO is "TIMELY" and not exclusive of all other automakers.....
Sirius XM Reports Q3: Content Questions Remain [View article]
I would rather look at CPO as an improved revenue margin metric effect, than a decreased expense. The SAC expense will not be influenced by CPO, but rather by increased new OEM sales, which it is actually primarily consisting of.
As the economy improves and growth comes back to OEM's, while high margin subscriptions such as CPO, Premium Internet, Smartphone only, Business Subs, also will grow, SAC from their automotive partners will increase in total, but not necessarily on a "per unit" basis. Metrics from CPO will be more and more asked for by analysts going forward so that SAC can more appropriately built into the models.
The Problem With Wall Street Analysts [View instapost]
Would you like me to post the article on Newmarketplayers? I know it would help me more than you, but it may also give a heads up to some investors who are scratching their heads.
It's relevant and addresses so many concerns out there. I think we see the analysts similarly, but your insight comes with a working knowledge of the investment community. A rare view into a smoke-and-mirrors world.
Either way very good stuff.....
Sirius: Analysts Weigh In on Q3 Earnings and Beyond [View article]
I appreciate your comments and would be more than willing to discuss my views on each analyst. Come and visit over at the website where a more detailed response and back and forth can take place..... Just check my profile for the website and stop by.
Sirius: Analysts Weigh In on Q3 Earnings and Beyond [View article]
Thanks for stopping by..... Questioning Analyst motives, their basis for recommendations, and overall performance in evaluating companies is why I now have my own website. Criticisms from Co-Hosts regarding questions asked to analysts because they may make the analyst uncomfortable, is never a good path to go down...... If their analysis and positions are well founded, their explanations and answers to the questions are what is valued by listeners.
Sirius: Analysts Weigh In on Q3 Earnings and Beyond [View article]
It is never my intention to "move markets". I wonder which of the analysts reports above is moving Sirius XM's market today. This is simply a summary of analyst opinions, and some color on what makes sense and what does not. You remind me of someone I once new, you take information out of context to serve your own view.
When I state that Janco partners moving from a Buy to Accumulate, and the analyst apparently is using a growth number that no one else is for 2011 EBITDA, and that is confusing to retail investors, that's not talking down to them. That's just talking to them with a good handle on the facts.
When Miller Tabak's David Joyce, downgrades the company at a 1.25 on Sept 30th, and the stock price goes to a PM 1.62 the day of the call, and then he reiterates the downgrade, while raising his longer term target. I think that is confusing to retail investors.
When David Bank, completely misses the stock price run up and keeps his target price at the end of August at $1.00, and then when the stock runs and closes at 1.58, the company reports excellent execution of their business model, and states they are handling the competition in the dashboard very well, David Bank raises his target price to 1.25, I think that is more than just confusing.
Sirius: Analysts Weigh In on Q3 Earnings and Beyond [View article]
I also put little faith in reports written for the sake of writing them. I particularly like it when an analyst moves a stock from Buy to Accumulate. I find that very helpful. Or reports without any value, like the Gabelli, Tabak, and Janco Partners' report. These reports only confuse retail investors. If you want a written report, just rewritten, then go to the Playground. That's where all the cut and past is going on.
Points of Interest From Sirius Q3 Conference Call [View article]
Also take a look at that Other Revenue line item. He has David Frear tell analysts that the amount from Music Royalty fees is pretty much stable and fully integrated, and then they go and grow it again Q over Q. This line item is why they are profitable and beating analysts estimates. Gives ARPU a new meaning and was a nice call with the FCC agreements. With $71M in the total line item, that is 10% of total revenue. Very nice.
Well I just stopped in to say Hi, and keep up the good work....
Sirius XM Reports Q3: Content Questions Remain [View article]
As far as addressing SAC, your comment is just not the case. Although the SAC line item in the budget decreased Q over Q, from ~$130M to ~$106M, their per gross sub add #, remained the same at $59. Further review of this metric would show a 43% decrease in subscriber adds, with only a 19% decrease in actual expense attributed to SAC on the income statement, Q2 (583K net adds) to Q3 (334K net adds). We're left to assume that more CPO, high margin subs were sold in Q2 vs Q3, to account for the non-linear percentage differences.
Other than talking about improving bandwidth efficiencies with 2.0, not much was added by Mel. Just another way of saying as he already has, "we will be expanding our channel line-up with 2.0".
The company has put in a very solid quarter, but it is the content issue that some are focused on. It is also the more apparent reason for not projecting 2011 numbers yet until these content costs are known.
Sirius XM Reports Q3: Content Questions Remain [View article]
Liberty Media, Sirius Q3 Earnings: Exciting Times, Indeed [View article]
The 17 months that the company waited for FCC and DOJ compliance was a dificult time for sure, with SIRI hovering around $2.75, Dropping to $2.20 just days before the merger, and to $1.49 days after the merger when the XM $1.3B in loans was announced. One was a $778M , 13% Senior Note due 2013, and the other the $550M Convertible Note with 263M shares lent to short the stock, and with a price set for the shares at $1.50.
Maybe your thinking of another company.