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Dennis Hilkens

 
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  • Whiting USA Trust I About To Drop By 50% [View article]
    I guess the stars align for the WHX shorts (see http://yhoo.it/1myu9Dj). What was true then is true now.
    Mar 28, 2014. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust I About To Drop By 50% [View article]
    An update on how to trade on WHX can be found here: http://bit.ly/O2Urzs
    Feb 18, 2014. 04:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust I: Estimating Remaining Distributions [View article]
    WHX is an interesting concept. It seems as if trading the direction of the stock outright is downright problematic. One must travel to more advanced trading to profit of this stock: http://bit.ly/O2Urzs.
    Feb 18, 2014. 04:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Twitter Will Definitely, Surely, Assuredly, Certainly Not Be Trading At $70 When Q3 2014 Starts [View article]
    Effectively you are saying go long volatility - which has recently ran up as TWTR's stock price has spiked up. I don't necessarily think this is a bad strategy, but I really wonder whether this is the right call to make at this point in time.

    Short-term IV is sky-high, which is natural given the high-profile nature of this stock. Given my experience with FB/LNKD it is actually a better (risk/reward) strategy to short volatility over the whole curve while hedging delta.
    Jan 5, 2014. 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust 1: Profits Going To Your Broker And Large Investors, $2.42 Value [View article]
    Shorts do not necessarily lose. Yes, shorting WHX outright is a fool's game, but there is repetition in price action which can be explained by psychological drivers.

    I am agreeing with you on your overall thesis though. Being right doesn't automatically translate to profits.
    Nov 19, 2013. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust I About To Drop By 50% [View article]
    General comment:

    While I don't like to comment on my stock picks on a daily basis (as WHX could well turn the other way tomorrow), but I feel some justification after today's drop:

    (1) Stock has been selling off on high volume: 869,874 vs 398,570
    (2) Institutional ownership has also dropped to 2%

    Are investors finally realizing they are buying $1 for $2?
    Nov 18, 2013. 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust I About To Drop By 50% [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. I do agree with you that there may be more shadier rocks in the sea. Time is also a constraint for myself.
    Nov 18, 2013. 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust I About To Drop By 50% [View article]
    Hi dkarousos,

    I submitted the article earlier, but the editorial team naturally requires some time to review before publishing.
    Nov 15, 2013. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust I About To Drop By 50% [View article]
    You are (partially) right.

    Unfortunately all the short stock availability has been used up in the past few days. Implied Vol of puts has been rising towards the ex-div date and sat at ~120% when I bought my puts. Still, if the drop is sharp enough it may prove fruitful. The closer we get to termination, the more volatile the corrections should get as the intrinsic value of the stock is diminishing (thus divergence is relatively more extreme). There is still an opportunity to make money, albeit less than the drop itself, as you correctly point out.
    Nov 15, 2013. 06:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 At A Crossroads - Time To Buy Or Sell? [View article]
    Greed, starved fixed income returns, however you want to call it.

    Low interest rates have profound effects on asset allocation and I guess the effects are apparent.
    Aug 15, 2013. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 At A Crossroads - Time To Buy Or Sell? [View article]
    Thank you for the response. Nice source.
    Aug 15, 2013. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 At A Crossroads - Time To Buy Or Sell? [View article]
    True, if you're very positive about your stock picks then you can still keep them. In a way you can buy some "insurance" for being wrong by hedging with options.
    Aug 15, 2013. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 At A Crossroads - Time To Buy Or Sell? [View article]
    I don't advocate "staying out of the market". What I have tried to do is educate those who have, or intend to take, a position in the market on the current market risks. There is ample evidence that hedging to maintain some market neutrality is currently both useful and cheap.

    There are many market-neutral strategies which can still be readily applied.
    Aug 15, 2013. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Believes Muscle Pharm Will Continue To Grow [View article]
    How did you calculate the "justified stock price"?
    Jul 3, 2013. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Shattering The Personal Consumption Myth [View article]
    Great Field Research, Matt. Your persistence is noteworthy, but there are larger forces at play here.

    Discl: I was luckily long Calls before the Icahn surge. I hold no position in HLF before the FTC officially declares they will not investigate HLF.
    Feb 17, 2013. 04:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
23 Comments
24 Likes