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Denver Smith

 
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  • Huge Share Class Arbitrage Opportunity In National Research Corporation Class B Shares [View article]
    With a little bit of patience (One year and 5 months later)… the company reinstates dividends… quarterly dividend of $0.36 for class B shares and $0.06 for class A shares… lets see what happens over the coming days...
    Dec 9, 2014. 06:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Innovative Food Holdings: Undervalued Gem In A Red-Hot Sector [View article]
    the 16th is a sunday and they won't file then my mistake… probably the 17th.
    Nov 6, 2014. 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Innovative Food Holdings: Undervalued Gem In A Red-Hot Sector [View article]
    An uplisting is definitely something that would be in the cards if the business continues to grow like it is. Right now the focus of the company is integrating the recent acquisitions and after that is all said and done I definitely think that it is something that they would consider.

    Management is all very financially savvy and heavily invested in the stock of ivfh. When the time is right it is definitely something that they will do, but right now the focus is just running the business and integrating these acquisitions… as it should be in my opinion… Good question though
    Nov 6, 2014. 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Innovative Food Holdings: Undervalued Gem In A Red-Hot Sector [View article]
    around the 16th of November
    Oct 30, 2014. 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Innovative Food Holdings: Undervalued Gem In A Red-Hot Sector [View article]
    according to a presentation done by the company in February of this year found here:

    http://bit.ly/1bw8SEe

    in regard to the distribution side of the business, the company aims to pay between 2 and 3.5 times EBITDA (slide 14 I think). the company recently announced a small acquisition which I did not incorporate into my analysis, and info about this acquisition can be found here:

    http://yhoo.it/1qrlPmO

    they paid cash, an earn out, a seller note, and some options equivalent to roughly $550,000 give or take depending on what the share price is on a given day. I think this acquisition should add between $160,000 and $270,000 in ebitda given the companies comments in the above presentation. This would could potentially add 230,000 shares outstanding and remove $100,000 from the balance sheet and also add $146,000 in cash to the balance sheet if the options are exersized and the note is converted into shares.

    assuming the acquisition adds between $160,000 and $270,000 in ebitda (2-3.5 ebitda multiple assumed), the acquisition should add between $0.15 and $0.25 to my value estimate for IVFH shares… very rough calculation...
    Oct 15, 2014. 03:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Innovative Food Holdings: Undervalued Gem In A Red-Hot Sector [View article]
    From my discussions with The Fresh Diet guys, in a word, optimization... of everything... routes, purchasing more effectively on a lot of different fronts, staffing, yada yada implementing strict quality/quantity control systems essentially optimizing everything... standardization of everything (that can be standardized)

    No one thing in particular... they have been very busy

    These guys have operational experience in one of the largest restaurant chains in the world and they have significant experience in customer satisfaction management, and standardization and optimization of food operations on a massive, massive scale.
    Oct 10, 2014. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Innovative Food Holdings: Undervalued Gem In A Red-Hot Sector [View article]
    jurrens - thanks for the reply... not concerned with liquidity at all or set on a buyout (although obviously I'm not opposed to one)... if the co keeps doing what it is doing volume will take care of its self... should have seen the volume when we started buying in may of 2013... it took more than a minute...

    gotta disagree about herbalife as it is a multi-level marketing company and in my opinion isn't comparable to a company that makes food and delivers it daily to peoples doorsteps. I suppose it does play into that growing health conscious market but I wouldn't say it compares for valuation purposes because of vastly different margins and cost structures

    nutrisystems and jc are more similar but as you said more mature and shrinking... a big difference also is that fresh diet can be more of a convenience item than necessarily just a diet item... their platform can and has been expanding into new less "diet" related categories and within the diet category they can essentially use their technology platform and logistics to really prepare and deliver any types of diet or non-diet meals in the future if they want to.

    even with these companies they have vastly different margins and cost structures as well though... the fresh diet is definitely a new type of breed of company

    And although us foods is their partner, ivfh is doubling the growth rate of us foods because of their focus on specialty/organic/farm to table type items exclusively. US foods was growing at around 11% I believe. US foods is just a general broad line food distributor with tiny ebitda margins... IVFH has big ebitda margins for a food distributor. UNFI is a major distributor that is a bit more specialized and growing almost as fast as IVFH... not quite the margins

    A thing about ivfh's growth at this point and something that makes its growth hard to compare to other multi billion dollar distributors is that the company has gotten to a point where small additions to the top line are adding monster growth on the bottom line because the company is becoming very effective at scaling their platform. The 21% revenue growth most recently increased operating income by 140%... I will take more of where that came from...

    thanks for the analysis
    Oct 10, 2014. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Food Tech Revolution [View article]
    what stalled growth? most recent quarter showed 21% year over year revenue growth and 66% growth in operating income
    Sep 22, 2014. 07:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Food Tech Revolution [View article]
    If you add back the $160k paid in an earn-out to Mr Vohaska, the $180k worth of bonuses paid that were accrued in 2012 but paid this year, and make some working capital adjustments and a few other minor items this company is generating $2 million plus in operating cash flow with minimal cap-ex spend needed to maintain their current growth.

    Even assuming the worst case scenario in regard to potential dilution, this company should be trading at a massive premium to today's price based on comparable publicly traded companies riding the specialty food wave.

    As you pointed out, a buyout/vc backed ipo could value the stock at $5/$6. The rapid consolidation taking place in this industry and the recent wave of M&A transactions is making that scenario look ever the more likely.

    I'm long IVFH. My company has been adding shares since $0.38.

    Great article.
    Apr 15, 2014. 06:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coda Octopus Group: Cheap, Moat-Protected, And In A Pinch [View article]
    disregard that comment… I misunderstood your wording and thought you were referring to information outside of court document… my mistake
    Mar 20, 2014. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coda Octopus Group: Cheap, Moat-Protected, And In A Pinch [View article]
    Could you give me a link to the lawsuit information you are referring to?

    I would appreciate it.
    Mar 20, 2014. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coda Octopus Group: Cheap, Moat-Protected, And In A Pinch [View article]
    they disclosed in the previous quarter that there would be a big drop because of customers preferring to rent before they buy now… they also just signed that $850k order that will be included in next quarters results…

    very interesting situation…

    It would be in the bondholders best interest to negotiate the debt payoff promptly or someone will assuredly come in and provide a bridge loan to pay off the loan in cash… which the current bondholder would obviously not want…

    too many valuable pieces here for shareholders not to be rewarded… even in the worst of scenarios...
    Mar 20, 2014. 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Its Guaranteed Role In Our Lifetime [View article]
    gold is only worth what people will pay for it… it isn't a raw material used in building or creating things like other commodities… it has been a poor to awful hedge against inflation compared to other commodities and real estate… gold has only had a high correlation with inflation during times of easy money and negative real interest rates - hence - now and the 70's… the correlation of gold and inflation will once again end… when? I don't know or care. I'de rather waste my energy trying to find a less controversial investment that makes fundamental sense.

    I'm not trying to bash the article… just pointing some things out… here is a link with some historical asset correlation data to support my assertions…

    http://bit.ly/1pnDIF0
    Feb 25, 2014. 04:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FitLife Is Very Cheap, But Probably Not For Long [View article]
    great write-up
    Feb 17, 2014. 03:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Innovative Food Holdings: The Little Company In The Middle Of The Specialty Food Phenomenon [View article]
    Nice article. This company definitely has a unique business model and the financial resources to keep their momentum going.
    Feb 8, 2014. 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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