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Derastone  

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  • Wal-Mart (WMT) CEO Mike Duke gives a bit of insight on the economy during the earnings call: "Only 1 in 10 Wal-Mart moms that we surveyed view the state of the U.S. economy as good... They're juggling credit cards, using coupons, skipping restaurants and vacations. There is a real sense that the economic strain is taking its toll."  [View news story]
    Exxon Mobil and a big portion of Corporate America is owned by the pensions (Main Street). In the long run Main Street makes money off Exxon Mobil, especially from their dividends. It helps the elderly who saved up money and invested it stocks to compensate for what social security has become. The long term interest of Corporate America is tied to Main Street. On the other hand, bankers mainly work off commissions, they don't take long-term interests in any company, not even their own.

    I find it hard to understand when people associate the top 5% with Exxon Mobil or any of the big corporations. The top 5% have most of their money in Municipal Bonds for tax purposes, so if you want to mess with the top 5%, then don't pay your municipal taxes, let them go bankrupt, like that one in Alabama.
    Nov 15, 2011. 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CF Industries: Here's A Beanstalk That's Going To Sprout [View article]
    Love the company, just explaining my concerns/fears as well. However, there is always the right price for a stock.
    Nov 15, 2011. 09:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters: Why Many Investors Fear This Market [View article]
    Is the SEC still going forward with its probe in GMCR? Why hasn't PwC (the auditor) signed off on GMCR's internal controls?

    I generally do not touch stocks that have accounting issues. You really need a team to dig into those kind of companies and find out the truth.

    As you said, individual investors will have a hard time figuring out this one. They are at a disadvantage to those who work full-time to uncover the real numbers.
    Oct 25, 2011. 01:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix CEO Reed Hastings Responds to Whitney Tilson: Cover Your Short Position. Now. [View article]
    I wonder what will happen in a month (Earnings release Oct 19, 2011) "60% rise in fees" vs. xyz% turnover rate

    It seems unrealistic that Netflix will lose > 30% of subscribers.
    In the long run Netflix will continue to gain customers on a global basis.
    Sep 21, 2011. 01:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Dividend Stocks to Transform Your Portfolio: Part 1 [View article]
    I agree with ABV (seekingalpha.com/artic...)

    Long term thesis is still valid, but pricing estimates have gone up.

    Hope this helps
    Jul 9, 2011. 10:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Creating the Perfect Portfolio: Large-Cap Value Stocks [View article]
    Citigroup: trust, but verify
    Jul 9, 2011. 10:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Machinery: A Prime Rebound Candidate [View article]
    Good call. I enjoy going back to writers who make the right call at the right time for the right reasons.
    Jun 10, 2011. 04:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 ETF Basic Asset Class Portfolio [View article]
    I totally agree with shorting the US Treasury Bonds.
    May 24, 2011. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Short Netflix [View article]
    The problem with most articles I read about Netflix is that they speak in generalities. I find it difficult to be convinced when I see the words "Netflix is expensive" without any substantial evidence.

    So far, the best one you have published is the interview with Len Brecken but other than that, information is limited.

    I've read your article and I think it is a good beginning for your thesis. It shows that you can smell something going bad going on but other than that you don't have much fundamental data, if you do, you aren't showing it in your article. You outlined a trading strategy and gave reasons why you prefer puts over shorting the stock.

    There are some hard questions still to be answered:
    a) What is Netflix going to earn going forward? How do you get to that number? What is their cash flow going to be in the next year? How do you get to that number? think about the scenarios?
    b) How is the price for acquiring customers and revenue per customer evolving? --> How are margins going to look? Can you model it out? What are the scenarios?
    c) What is the catalyst that will bring the price down? When do you expect it to happen? (given that you will buy leaps, I obviously assume that you expect a re-pricing of the stock for the duration of the LEAP but it isn't clear)
    d) What are the risks that your thesis might go wrong?
    f) Finally, and the most important question of all, what is the breakeven number of subscribers Netflix needs to have in order to sustain its business. Len talks about bankruptcy in 2012. The problem I have with that is I believe they have paid a large portion of their distribution rights upfront, which makes it hard for a company to not meet their obligations. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm not an expert in this stock.

    Going short requires lots of testosterone and I am really happy to see people writing about the companies they believe is worth less than what the market is pricing them at, however, I would encourage you to go deeper and build a stronger case.

    I also want to apologize if my previous comment was too brash.
    May 19, 2011. 11:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Short Netflix [View article]
    Do you have the guts to short it with real money?
    May 19, 2011. 11:58 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portugal opens inquiry into rating agencies [View article]
    Not worth my time reading. Everyone knows that Portugal is on its way to restructure its sovereign debt.

    On an unrelated note. My little sister was asking the other day why the Greek royalty is in so much trouble (confusing "sovereign" with royalty)
    May 10, 2011. 12:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Air Travel Bookings Add Little to Priceline [View article]
    Similar to this article....
    www.thestreet.com/stor...
    Apr 26, 2011. 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Will Be Volatility: The AT&T / T-Mobile Merger [View article]
    Good article.
    Key Questions:
    a) What assets will they divest?
    b) What will be the overall effect on net profit?

    figure that out if you can.
    Mar 31, 2011. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small but Growing: Church & Dwight Could Be the Next Procter & Gamble [View article]
    Tweedn,
    The issue with taking the current P/E is that it is calculated wrongly. The earnings came in significantly lower this year because of a shortened calendar year, a legal settlement, and a pension recalculation.

    This is from the CHD's 4Q News Release:
    This year's fourth quarter was six days shorter (6% fewer days in the quarter for 90% of the Company's business) than the comparable period in the prior year due to the Company's fiscal calendar. The impact of the fewer days is reflected in, among other factors, lower reported and organic sales. Mr. Craigie commented, "When adjusted for the 6 fewer days in the quarter, the fourth quarter organic sales represents our strongest quarter of the year."
    ----------------------...
    I should have written that in the analysis but if you take the forward looking P/E you can skip this part and even better, you take into account the company's growth rate.

    Hope this helps.

    On a side note, I only got 1,200 views on this article so far. Kind of disappointed at that.
    Mar 31, 2011. 01:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank of America Under Suspicion by the Fed [View article]
    =) This one took a lot of time and intellectual effort.
    Mar 25, 2011. 06:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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