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Derek A. Barrett

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  • Long View of Housing Measures Says Sell [View article]
    Great summary of where we are at, and on top of all of those conditions, the price of property is also still overvalued.
    Mar 1, 2011. 09:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Machiavelli for the 21st Century: 'Next Decade' Offers Big Picture Assessment for Investors, Others [View article]
    At some point the youth generation will own Iran, and we need no "Realpolitik" to do any intervention to make that happen. When it does happen, Iran will be a natural ally of the United States, as this generation is actually fond of the US and the west in general.

    The old school religious ruling class can only hold them back for so much longer.
    Feb 28, 2011. 12:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Machiavelli for the 21st Century: 'Next Decade' Offers Big Picture Assessment for Investors, Others [View article]
    Agree, we need new measures and working systems as the current system is on eggshells and has shown itself to be subject to shocks and very wide imbalances between rich and poor.

    I just don't see how infinite growth/increasing quarterly earnings model goes on forever.
    Feb 27, 2011. 11:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix CEO Reed Hastings Responds to Whitney Tilson: Cover Your Short Position. Now. [View article]
    "As long as they are able to help me as a customer narrow my choices to a comprehensibly sized set of movies (from the incomprehensible 9-12,000 titles), then there is as much value for me for that guidance as there is for actually delivering the bits or discs. I don't have time to look through ten thousand possibilities, and I KNOW that there's something good in there to watch."

    Exactly. This is a major key ingredient to their success and what is overlooked so often by analysts, who try to figure out something they cannot understand by just focusing on raw numbers.

    This type of "secret sauce" just cannot be quantified properly by traditional measures. If it was, there would be 50 Netflixes out there who could just throw money at it and win.
    Feb 27, 2011. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just What Is the Strategy of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? [View article]
    Agree, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is for major emergencies, mostly military, raiding it every few years is sort of cheating.

    We keep dodging all these bullets with energy. Suddenly it's an emergency when gasoline prices are high, then when they go back down, everyone forgets about it. One of these days we will hit an energy shock so hard we will have to find an alternative the hard way.
    Feb 27, 2011. 07:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sasol: The Way to Play Soaring Gasoline Prices [View article]
    The Department of Defense has been seriously looking at Sasol and wants the entire Air Force running on alternative fuels. Check slide 7 here where they mention the Fischer-Tropsch technology:
    Feb 27, 2011. 07:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Germany's Economic Fortress Could Come Toppling Down [View article]
    Yeah right, the Joint Forces document devoted an entire chapter to the reality of the energy situation. So you would think the item to be of strategic importance, it had alot more to say than just, "they are telling you we need more oil."

    Whether or not we NEED more oil is not the point. The POINT I was making is, we are on the verge of running out of a surplus, but you went off on some tangent.

    How to deal with the situation is another matter entirely, but nice attempt at setting up a strawman about something I wasn't even talking about.

    Regarding the Air Force, the program is called the DOD Assured Fuels Initiative, which has a goal of being able to produce fuels domestically since the US is very dependent on importing foreign oil. They have already tested many major systems like the B-52 and A-10, I'm sure there are more by now if you look.

    If you read carefully you will see that the program (along with the Joint Forces Document), emphasize a PORTFOLIO of energy sources, not just oil as you falsely claimed.

    And good luck finding enough oil in the US, you won't find enough, that should have been apparent 40 years ago.

    You can read about the program here:
    Feb 27, 2011. 08:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Germany's Economic Fortress Could Come Toppling Down [View article]
    The US Joint Forces Command disagrees with you. The Air Force is also moving to alternative fuels in an effort to not be crippled should the oil tap run out.

    And this isn't a right/left issue, it affects everybody.

    "By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD. Energy production and distribution infrastructure must see significant new investment if energy demand is to be satisfied at a cost compatible with economic growth and prosperity."
    Feb 26, 2011. 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Road Map for Managing a Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    Oddly enough, Pimco's Bill Gross was briefly a professional blackjack player before managing Pimco's bond funds.
    Feb 26, 2011. 12:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Goldman Sachs Is Still Running New Jersey [View article]
    "No one (but you) dismisses teachers on the basis of their occupation, or firefighters as being overpaid and lazy."

    Sorry, but I disagree 100%. You hear this all of the time, teachers being scapegoated and being generalized as incompetent as a group.
    Feb 25, 2011. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Goldman Sachs Is Still Running New Jersey [View article]
    "Why, it's why our school teachers are the envy of the world. Wait, no . . . "

    Very funny. Perhaps you missed out on the whole concept of prejudice in your education. In what other conversation is it ever acceptable (OR INTELLIGENT) to dismiss an entire group of people based on a single shared characteristic (occupation, in this case).

    "All firefighters are overpaid and lazy." That's pretty much the equivalent statement you are making about teachers. In many circles that would be called being a bigot. It's scapegoating at the very least. Own up to it and think critically for yourself instead of the latest cutesy talking point being bantered about on talk radio.

    You are being played by the very same group who is bankrolling and advising guys like Christie. This is a 100% pure political game, yet you have voluntarily enlisted yourself as a foot soldier, when you are really a pawn in the whole game.

    Somehow they have convinced you that it's a good thing to hate workers for actually wanting some sense of job security or actually wanting a decent wage.

    Yeah, it's great when it's other people taking the pay cuts and losing their jobs, as long as it's not you, no no, only you work hard, not like those lazy union/government/whoever talk radio hates this week workers. Break the unions and you break the votes, it is pretty simple to see the game right out in the open.

    On top of that, the entire staff at Goldman Sachs has received huge subsidies from the US taxpayer. They can believe their own BS all they want about earning those ridiculous bonuses, when the fact is, it is the American taxpayer and Warren Buffett who have kept them afloat this whole time.

    You may have a point if Goldman's commissions actually rewarded good performance, but in this case they only reward envelope-pushing, ruling bending, and conflict of interest shenanigans.

    There was a company once who tried that ultra-competitive, dog eat dog commission based environment - it was called Enron.

    My vote is that we go back to the days of child labor and 14 hour work days.
    Feb 25, 2011. 12:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whitney Tilson: Why We're Short Netflix [View article]
    The movement up last year was leaps and bounds beyond anything that happened in 2009, and especially after getting extended by QE2 steroids
    Feb 23, 2011. 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whitney Tilson: Why We're Short Netflix [View article]
    It's a momo stock, plain and simple, and the 2010 leader. They move fast on the way up but also take big hits on the way down.

    Those counter days are a very recent phenomenon in the past month, much of it due to big short positions (like the one in this article) capitulating and covering.
    Feb 23, 2011. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From Boeing's Outsourcing Disaster [View article]
    The fact of the matter is, that it takes a portfolio of solutions to solve the problem, not just scapegoating labor. Scapegoating labor is done for two reasons:

    1) Political (reduce voting power of the unions)
    2) Advancement of private sector companies vying for government contracts

    There are many different areas of a budget that can be cut (and never suggested salaries shouldn't be cut), but scapegoating workers isn't going to fix the problem.

    However, I'm sure in your outsourced Utopian world (the Newsweek article and your cheerleading of Boeing's multi-billion dollar "learning experience" is very telling), everything government is run very profitably by private companies, every move justifying the bottom line. Maybe you'd rather replace the local cops with Black Water guys running around with MP5s? Outsource 911 services to Bangalore?

    I would rather not have teachers, fire fighters, or police officers taking in consideration profit when making life-altering decisions.
    Feb 23, 2011. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From Boeing's Outsourcing Disaster [View article]
    You do realize the attacks on teachers unions are purely political?

    Teachers have never been highly paid, not even close, yet are now under attack. All you have to do is look at who the teachers unions support and who they oppose and then follow the money trail.

    It's all 100% pure political, not economics, and you fell for the nonsense.

    The fact of the matter is, budgets are hallowed out due to loss in income taxes, and loss due to property taxes. Irresponsible budgeting, yes. But to knee-jerk and blame labor for being overpaid is ridiculous.

    Cutting salaries is fine as long as it's someone else right?

    Where is their bailout? I guess you need to get huge million dollar bonuses for leeching the population in order to be considered worthy of one.
    Feb 22, 2011. 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment