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Derek Blain  

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  • Short Charter: Chapter 11 Is Coming [View article]
    As mentioned on my profile page, I won't be writing any articles through the summer as I have a couple of seasonal businesses that require more-than-full-time attention. I'll be back writing in the fall.
    Jun 8, 2013. 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hurdles For Apple Longs [View article]
    Apple is starting to move into my target range, so if you went short, keep an eye out to close the trade sometime within the next couple of weeks. Congrats to all who shorted along-side, for $150/share gains.
    Apr 18, 2013. 11:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Pop Then A Drop For The Great Netflix Stock [View article]
    The pattern off of the high isn't really demonstrating a clear direction either way. Usually choppy, sideways patterns with weak trends after a clear, directional move are "motive" patterns. It is a weak distribution period, often produces what is known as a "flag" pattern on a chart, and usually precedes another move in the same direction as the previous clear directional move. I think the probability is higher that NFLX resolves its countertrend somewhere around where we intiated the last trade, and proceeds to make a new high before reversing.

    If it breaks into that huge gap range, though, then we could see a longer correction that takes it all the way down to fill. I don't have a position open at this time, but I'll let you know if and when I do open one. Thanks for following along, and congrats again if you made the earlier trade with me.
    Mar 20, 2013. 10:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems - Expectation And Reality Soon To Meet [View article]
    Short target has been met, for a nice, quick gain of 39% in less than 60 days. If you didn't go short, you just saved a bunch of money by reading this article and hopefully not going long.

    There is still a good chance it's going to carry down to the lower line on what is now a downward channel. This would take it to my previously cited unfilled gap target just below $24/share. I recommend closing off the position sooner than later, as the short interest may cause this thing to do a very sharp dip and reversal over a day or two.

    I will see what sort of pattern plays out and let you guys know if I'm going to take a long position on DDD once a more clear bottom pattern emerges.

    Thank you for your readership, everyone.
    Mar 16, 2013. 11:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain: Over $300 Or Under $10? The Next Few Weeks Are Key [View article]
    I still haven't opened a position because the move so far is looking motive off of that upper channel line tap. The price will still very likely make a move down to the lower part of the channel line, as indicated on the chart, but it looks more like a flat correction than a standard bull flag.

    Another clue is that today's action is was a thrust up off of the open to a new high off of its lows last year, just pennies over that gap fill mark at $48.62 that I indicated on the daily chart. It managed to eke out a mere $0.09 past that point to its daily high at $48.71, and then reversed in an impulsive pattern. I am expecting strong downside followthrough through the next couple of days, which will give a better picture of the trend over the next week or two. Internals have diverged very strongly since the last peak, indicating near-term exhaustion. Again, if I do take a long position, it likely won't be until we are closer to $40.00 or slightly below.

    Watch the weekly handle. If we get very, very strong follow-through we could see an outside reversal bar, which could even set the tone for the next couple of months. I'll update once I take a position.
    Mar 4, 2013. 06:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems - Expectation And Reality Soon To Meet [View article]
    Yes, those are pre-split. The post-split open monthly gap from the end of September now sits at $23.96. WIth the sideways consolidation from the last couple of days, it's looking probable that the stock is tracing out a triangle pattern. This is generally the precursor to the final move of a given degree of trend, so if a triangle plays out and it breaks down, I recommend covering the short into a selloff below the previous low at $30.28, which should carry it down to the mid-high 20's.

    These blowoffs could shake out in a variety of ways. I wouldn't be shocked if the price decided to pummel down to $8.00/share again. I don't think that's likely given the short interest, and that would be a wild ride of up and downswings with all of the buying to cover that would be going on.
    Feb 26, 2013. 04:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems - Expectation And Reality Soon To Meet [View article]
    Where did everybody go? ;)
    Feb 25, 2013. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Charter: Chapter 11 Is Coming [View article]
    Record private inflows have to go somewhere, no? Muppets are back, and in force!
    Feb 22, 2013. 10:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Charter: Chapter 11 Is Coming [View article]
    They have been issuing new debt. And it is current interest that is causing them to book losses every quarter. Again, if they slip behind that interest earned threshold that's where things start to spiral out of control. And they are very close.

    P.S. I wouldn't recommend picking up a company with terrible financials and horrid net equity on the chance that someone might buy it out. There are some who could handle the balance sheet hit of migrating CHTR over to their own operations, but I would be willing to bet they are watching closely more for the distressed sale aspect in the future. Patience yields you a 70% markdown on those assets? I'd be waiting, too.
    Feb 22, 2013. 05:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Charter: Chapter 11 Is Coming [View article]
    Well, wouldn't hurt to make back some of those cable subscription fees on a hearty short-sell... Hell, cover the next ten years of cable, even.
    Feb 21, 2013. 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks Are Dead. Long Live Gold Stocks! [View article]
    It's no 300% ;) Plus you would have had to tie up at least $3400 on a minimum position, whereas I usually recommend only $1,000 per options position (depending on the price of the option, obviously, with higher share priced stocks like NFLX and such being exceptions - but still far below the actual required capital to pick up even one share block).

    Anyway... you still against shorting AMZN, even with that beautiful, and I mean beautiful, second attempt at the upper rising wedge there and the intraday impulsive move to the downside? Thing of beauty, friend.
    Feb 21, 2013. 12:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks Are Dead. Long Live Gold Stocks! [View article]
    Well, someone's got to take the other side of that trade, golly gee whiz...

    I don't think you are getting what I'm saying. Look at the GDX: It is 1.50/share lower than it was in late may 2012.

    Look at DUST - it is 23.50/share, or 30% LOWER than it was in May 2012.

    I will stick to my options on high probability setups to trade...
    Feb 20, 2013. 09:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks Are Dead. Long Live Gold Stocks! [View article]
    Catching a falling knife is me saying "buy it, buy it now". Note the caveats within my article...

    Besides, it's not like I've ignored the PM collapse. My silver short position from December is up over 300% in sixty days - it's posted on my instablog if you want to see the technical case I made for it.

    Also, notice that DUST is making a lower high against the lower low of the actual mining indices. Leveraged ETFs are wonderful for the short term swings, but if you keep sitting on them the erosion caps your gains over any sort of longer term play. Once that trend reverses, DUST will collapse in a spectacular fashion. Besides, going long on DUST now would be kind of silly - it has never been this overbought, and the internals have been diverging down already since December - even counting today's melt-up.
    Feb 20, 2013. 08:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks Are Dead. Long Live Gold Stocks! [View article]
    Peak ridiculousness in an age of peak ridiculousness...
    Feb 20, 2013. 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks Are Dead. Long Live Gold Stocks! [View article]
    Government is always a risk and it is always a hindrance to progress. Owning physical gold can be a risky proposition, too.

    http://bit.ly/135bCom
    Feb 20, 2013. 03:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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