In This Put-Up-Or-Shut-Up Year, MELA Sciences Should Succeed With Its Launch Of MelaFind [View article]
Yes, MELA has recently released new news - but nothing too material or specific. I am waiting for hard data to be released, specifically the number of new devices installed in physicians offices, etc. I feel there is a high chance towards the end of this year these numeric figures will be released, that is if substantial progress in a positive direction is made. It would be in management's best interest to do so for investors.
Ultra Petroleum Is Undervalued, But Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
Thank you for pointing this out. There are a lot of other firms prompted to benefit from this as well. It will be interesting to see how quickly it becomes priced into the market as the price of natural gas climbs back to its normal average price.
Ultra Petroleum Is Undervalued, But Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
Thanks! I do agree with you, the stock is very cheap right now. Its an excellent entry point for investors in for the long haul. With the RSI indicator in the overbought zone, I see the potential for a small pull back, which would really only be beneficial to short-term investors seeking a lower cost basis. I plan on initiating a position in UPL soon, as well as several other companies who have a similar asset structure and are positioned to benefit from an increase in the price of natural gas.
In This Put-Up-Or-Shut-Up Year, MELA Sciences Should Succeed With Its Launch Of MelaFind [View article]
Appears short interest has been decreasing progressively since March of last year. Also, days to cover is creeping back up again. A short-term swing may not be bad at its current price per share and given the RSI indication is extremely low in the oversold range at 20. What are your thoughts going forward into the next quarter?
An Attractive Risk-Adjusted Way To Invest In SandRidge Energy [View article]
Its nice to see someone else support the bull case for SandRidge Energy. I am glad you pointed out there is no correlation between Ward's inflated salary and SD's market price per share. Too many investors appear to be far too caught up in Ward's unethical mishaps, and fail to recognize some of the most appealing things about the company such as its lucrative asset set and its natural gas property in Texas - perfectly positioned to provide a strong return with a recovery in natural gas prices.
Valuing Caterpillar's Stock Using Price Simulation [View article]
Nice, yeah CAT is undervalued without a doubt. Try to ignore the short-term "event driven" fluctuations in its price. The changes are insignificant and rarely driven by fundamentals. But remain long, it will yield a solid return five years from now.
Valuing Caterpillar's Stock Using Price Simulation [View article]
I do agree with you. CAT has been quite stagnant for how well the market has been doing. If you are just looking for short-term gains, I see other places to invest. However, the long-term outlook for CAT remains strong and has forced me to hold my position.
Valuing Caterpillar's Stock Using Price Simulation [View article]
You are correct, stock return are not normally distributed. Stock return typically follow a students t-distribution, which allows for fatter tails (hence the larger deviation and uncertainty in a stocks price). Also, it is common to see stock returns fit a lognormal distribution fairly well. First, I am not modeling stock returns above anywhere. Second, if you look back at either model, you will see that I am modeling the forecast using a lognormal distribution. After generating the log normal distribution, I made the minimum and maximum values one standard deviation away from the mean still in the lognormal distribution. Then I simply converted the mean as well as the minimum and maximum values back to dollar form by taking the exponential function of the respective values. Yes, a normal distribution is involved, but the final output is not modeling using a normal distribution. And by just looking at the final output in isolation, you should be able to tell the minimum and maximum values do not follow a normal distribution. Look back at figure 4 above. The difference between the mininum price and the mean is entirely different than the difference between the maximum and the mean. Thanks for your feedback. Next time I will have to make it more clear that I am not modeling and drawing final conclusions from a normal distribution.
Manitex Is Deeply Undervalued As P/E Nears 52-Week Low [View article]
Sammy - I would have to disagree. A firm such as MNTX, that exhibits low levels of free cash flows and does not appear to have a solid history of generating high levels of free cash flows, should not be valued using traditional discounted free cash flow techniques. In the case you were to do so, you would have to use a altered risk-adjuted discount rate. MNTX's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is substantially low and would produce augmented values that do not accurately represent the true present value of its future stock price. The WACC should be adjusted to the industry's risk-adjusted discount rate to be more conservative. Also, the perpetual growth rate used for valuing it at termination should be no greater than 4%. Using DFCF techniques, I arrive at share prices for MNTX ranging from $15-$22 under different scenarios.
Manitex Is Deeply Undervalued As P/E Nears 52-Week Low [View article]
Great article. At the time this article was written, MNTX was an excellent value play. Intrinsic value still suggests MNTX is trading at a slight discount to its fair value - even after having increased as much as it has over the course of the last two months. MNTX is a well managed company with plenty of growth ahead. Its management has done an excellent job in financing its operations. Its risk-adjusted discount rate (weighted average cost of capital) is substaintally lower than the majority of its peers and the variation year-over-year is insignificant.
Manitex Is Deeply Undervalued As P/E Nears 52-Week Low [View article]
Great article. At the time this article was written, MNTX was an excellent value play. Intrinsic value still suggests MNTX is trading at a slight discount to its fair value - even after having increased as much as it has over the course of the last two months. MNTX is a well managed company with plenty of growth ahead. Its management has done an excellent job in financing its operations. Its risk-adjusted discount rate (weighted average cost of capital) is substaintally lower than the majority of its peers and the variation year-over-year is insignificant.
Backing Buffett's Bet On Bank Of America [View article]
Results are released today (March 7th) at 4:30 pm. I saw the link you posted - that article from Fiedlity should have been corrected it was misleading. But you are right, March 14th is an important date as well becuase on this day the major money center banks will announce any new dividend increases and/or share buyback authorizations. Its a great two weeks for financial stocks and they're plenty of great buys still out. A lot of banks remained undervalued.
Citigroup And Credit Suisse: 2 Financial Stocks With Most Upgrades In Past 3 Months [View article]
I am very bullish on Credit Suisse and recently added to my position, however Citigroup rasises several concerns for me. Don't get me wrong - Citigroup is a great company, and I had a position for quite some time, but recently realized my gains for short-term profits. One of the concerns I have regards Citigroup's ability to penetrate emerging markets. In the long run, I do not see this being an issue, but as of now Citigroup is having major issues in Latin America, specifically Brazil. Brazil is a highly competitive market and its banking system is comprised of a six bank oligopoly - making it even harder for outside firms to compete. Establishing a solid foothold in the Brazil's financial system would be advantageous for Citigroup, but Citigroup has choosen to step back and direct its focus to higher-end customers. Today it was just announced that Citigroup is planning on selling its Brazilian credit credits and consumer financial arm - its up for sale for approximately 1.5 billion Brazilian reais, which is equivalent to roughly $765 million. Also, in the short-run I see Citigroup doing well along with BAC and several other banks after the release of the Stress Test results. They will be announced today at 4:30 pm.
Ultra Petroleum Is Undervalued, But Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
In This Put-Up-Or-Shut-Up Year, MELA Sciences Should Succeed With Its Launch Of MelaFind [View article]
Ultra Petroleum Is Undervalued, But Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
Ultra Petroleum Is Undervalued, But Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
In This Put-Up-Or-Shut-Up Year, MELA Sciences Should Succeed With Its Launch Of MelaFind [View article]
An Attractive Risk-Adjusted Way To Invest In SandRidge Energy [View article]
Valuing Caterpillar's Stock Using Price Simulation [View article]
Valuing Caterpillar's Stock Using Price Simulation [View article]
Valuing Caterpillar's Stock Using Price Simulation [View article]
Valuing Caterpillar's Stock Using Price Simulation [View article]
Manitex Is Deeply Undervalued As P/E Nears 52-Week Low [View article]
Manitex Is Deeply Undervalued As P/E Nears 52-Week Low [View article]
Manitex Is Deeply Undervalued As P/E Nears 52-Week Low [View article]
Backing Buffett's Bet On Bank Of America [View article]
http://reut.rs/13IPAsg
Citigroup And Credit Suisse: 2 Financial Stocks With Most Upgrades In Past 3 Months [View article]