I would also like to ask you, in 2017 where in your models do have the federal funds rate? DNKN could easily be caught trying to roll over a large amount of debt in a high interest environment. Very similar to highly levered companies and individuals in 2008.
The simple answer is I do not think private markets with less information function better then public ones.
The more complex answer is the 1.5 billion term loan having a higher interest rate was due to the fact that the current loan LIBOR +3% is near what a AAA company pays for its debt. If the company is forced to issue bonds, I do not think they would get such a favorable interest rate. Just a 1.5% increase would cost the company 26 million annually, taking a huge chunk of FCF. This is all irrelevant if you think that DNKN has a AAA balance sheet going forward. I think the model more reflects a rate of DPZ debt.
@Romeo Fayette Short Run, yes you would be correct. If you are telling me the success over the long run of the franchisee does not effect the model when it comes to expansion, I would disagree. Simple econ 101 would tell you as ROI for the franchisee lowers less stores will be built.
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Whitney Tilson says 35 is fair value. It is hard to say though since they use stock as a major form of payment. So the lower the stock goes the more diluted shareholders would get.
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The more complex answer is the 1.5 billion term loan having a higher interest rate was due to the fact that the current loan LIBOR +3% is near what a AAA company pays for its debt. If the company is forced to issue bonds, I do not think they would get such a favorable interest rate. Just a 1.5% increase would cost the company 26 million annually, taking a huge chunk of FCF. This is all irrelevant if you think that DNKN has a AAA balance sheet going forward. I think the model more reflects a rate of DPZ debt.
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Short Run, yes you would be correct. If you are telling me the success over the long run of the franchisee does not effect the model when it comes to expansion, I would disagree. Simple econ 101 would tell you as ROI for the franchisee lowers less stores will be built.
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