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Devon Shire

 
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  • Genel Energy: The Best In Class Kurdistan-Focused Oil Producer [View article]
    Thanks for the comments. I'm going to try and do some follow ups as the story progresses:

    http://bit.ly/H0Abqy
    Aug 22 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources - The Scale Of The Balance Sheet Makeover May Surprise The Market (In A Good Way) [View article]
    The beauty of Seeking Alpha is you share what you wish to share.

    I try and keep most of my work for the kind souls who subscribe to my newsletter.

    valueinvestorcanada.bl...

    Can you provide some details on some of those low decline assets you mentioned that have been sold for 2.5 times cash flow?

    Thanks
    Jun 20 05:06 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources - The Scale Of The Balance Sheet Makeover May Surprise The Market (In A Good Way) [View article]
    "would it be possible for you to provide us with a multi-year summarized P&L and B/Sheets covering 2013, 2014 and 2015 and incorporate therein your asset disposal assumptions and ballpark capex numbers."

    Depends what you are paying me for the work!

    Six times cash flow isn't too high (in my opinion). The $351 million that they have sold have gone at 8 times cash flow. Lightstream's peer group is valued at more than 6 times cash flow.

    Can you provide some examples of low decline assets going for 2.5 times cash flow? The acquiring companies might be interesting opportunities...
    Jun 20 01:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranium Energy Corporation - First Stop In Assembling A Basket Of Uranium Exposure [View article]
    Thanks for the comments.

    What do you make of Sprott and CEF Capital being involved in supplying financing to UEC? I'm not sure how interested I would be without knowing that they have had a look under the hood.
    Jun 3 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orca Exploration - A Little Bit Of Hair On The Dog, But Debt Free And Trading At One Time Cash Flow [View article]
    Good point.

    I do think that the big discoveries nearby protect the company from such drastic government action. I'm sure they don't want to frighten the entire industry away.
    Jan 12 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orca Exploration - A Little Bit Of Hair On The Dog, But Debt Free And Trading At One Time Cash Flow [View article]
    Hi,

    No specific target. I think there are too many variables and suggesting that specific target exists doesn't make sense.

    What I'd say is that if Tanesco makes progress or shows that payments are going to become more consistent this stock could double or triple.

    http://bit.ly/H0Abqy

    If things kind of stay where they are and a large amount is still owing but money keeps coming in once in a while then the stock price likely won't do much.

    And if something crazy happens like payments from Tanesco completely stopping then there could be considerable downside.

    So I think there is a wide range of outcomes that could range from bad to a triple in the stock price.
    Jan 12 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream's CEO Backs Up The Truck And Puts His Money Where His Mouth Is [View article]
    Thanks for the question.

    I think that is tough one to answer because we haven't seen any "fire sales" of companies anywhere close to this size.

    With production that is 80% oil and liquids (and $50 netbacks) it is hard to imagine a price lower than $120,000 per flowing barrel. With 47,000 barrels per day of production, 199 million shares and $2 billion of debt that would be $18 per share.

    That might be a fair price, would they get that if someone came in and aggressively offered less at the current share price......probably not.
    Dec 24 09:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream's CEO Backs Up The Truck And Puts His Money Where His Mouth Is [View article]
    Thanks for the comments.

    Regarding lease expiry issues, they are in good shape. No issues with the Cardium or Bakken and they are drilling Swan Hills. They have indicated that there is no immediate need for them to drill up the Duvernay, Montney or Nordegg oil plays.

    They did release some NE BC natural gas property rather than drill it at current prices.

    I don't know where you come up with the idea that the properties are marginally economic or that they don't disclose detail. Head to the 2012 investor day presentations which has more information than you could ever need:

    http://bit.ly/1cvfRz6

    I actually appreciate the fact that Lightstream doesn't promote individual well results like other operators do because it is misleading to cherry pick only the best wells. As operators Lightstream brought slickwater fracking to the Cardium and were the first to produce economically from the Bakken. I suspect we are going to see that they have made improvements to the typical type curve in Swan Hills as well.
    Dec 24 09:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream's CEO Backs Up The Truck And Puts His Money Where His Mouth Is [View article]
    I think it depends on the reservoir.

    In most parts of the Bakken they think natural gas flooding is the best option. In Swan Hills I believe they will go with waterflooding. The Cardium may see a bit of both.

    Check out page 16 of the following presentation on the Lightstream website:

    http://bit.ly/1cHVlqX
    Dec 23 09:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream's CEO Backs Up The Truck And Puts His Money Where His Mouth Is [View article]
    Thanks for the comments.

    How much would you estimate the stripper wells make at $100 oil net of operating costs? Lightstream's op cost per barrel right now is about $13.

    I'm not just taking Lightstream's estimates of recovery factors from the Bakken...Crescent Point which is the other big player in the region has the same estimates (actually more aggressive).
    Dec 23 08:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream's CEO Backs Up The Truck And Puts His Money Where His Mouth Is [View article]
    Thanks for the comment.

    I think we are talking about increases in reserves that will extend the productive lives of these fields over many years and not create another big surge in production.

    My personal opinion is that we are going to need every drop of oil we can get and then some.
    Dec 23 08:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream's CEO Backs Up The Truck And Puts His Money Where His Mouth Is [View article]
    They haven't released numbers for 2015 yet (obviously). The only thing they indicated is that they expect to be funding 100% of capex and the dividend from cash flow in 2015.

    They actually likely would be able to do this in 2014 as well at today's oil prices (Edmonton light is $92 per barrel today).

    The key thing to note is that they are close to self-sustaining now, and with decline rates coming down that only gets better with time.
    Dec 23 07:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream's CEO Backs Up The Truck And Puts His Money Where His Mouth Is [View article]
    I don't have a good answer for that question. I don't think they should have paid a dividend for the past 3 years, if they hadn't their balance sheet would be in much better shape.

    The good news is that by the end of this year, the decline rates will be down to a point where they cover all capex and the dividend with cash flow (that assumes $95 WTI prices and a 10% differential for Cdn oil).

    Then with each passing year (month really) the situation continues to improve.
    Dec 23 07:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream's CEO Backs Up The Truck And Puts His Money Where His Mouth Is [View article]
    Hi,

    Thanks for the question. You can find their guidance for 2014 here:

    http://bit.ly/1fCqMoP

    Basically breaks down like this:

    Capex - $550 million
    Funds Flow From Ops - $610 million

    So in 2014 they will generate roughly $60 million more than they need to spend to keep production flat.

    They will additionally need to spend $95 million to pay the dividend.
    Dec 23 07:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream's CEO Backs Up The Truck And Puts His Money Where His Mouth Is [View article]
    I think the answer is that he does think that particular companies in the Canadian oil & gas sector are cheap. I also bet that he wishes Lightstream had the capacity to be an acquirer and not a seller of assets over the next two years.
    Dec 23 06:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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571 Comments
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