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DGI Guy

 
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  • Forecasting Dividend Growth To Better Predict Returns [View article]
    Any type of model like this just throws out some of the simple assumptions about regression modeling like heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity. I will need to read up on some of the references within the paper, but the AR(1) model seems too simplistic to capture any of the potential things that go on in the market at any given moment. ARIMA plus some transformations seem like a potential solution to enhance the modeling. But as any good SA reader knows, each investment is different. Trying to characterize AZO, BRK.B and CHK is a fools errand. If we were all economists sitting around having coffee it would be an interesting discussion. Outside of that you have too much omitted variable bias.
    Jul 22 12:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would You Do With A Million Dollars? [View article]
    Thanks for the comments - that is what I expected. ED was just an example. I don't think many DGI's around here would consider it on their short list these days. As a customer of theirs I would dump them if I could!
    Jun 7 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would You Do With A Million Dollars? [View article]
    One of the things that I have questions about is when do you drop the initial short term high dividend, low growth stocks? For example, lets say the author had selected ED for the portfolio. It has a 4.5% dividend which is great for today, but has a growth rate of 1% over the last 10 years. At a 3.3% inflation rate, after 10 years this discounts to a dividend of 3.7% dividend. At some point you have to dump these stocks or they will eat away at your investment. Anyone have a great plan on knowing when to pull the trigger? I am guessing it has something to do with % growth in the other portion of the portfolio, but I would be interested to hear everyone's ideas.
    Jun 7 08:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Investors Should Use Historic P/E Ratios To Find Hidden Value [View article]
    YCharts will give you 5 years.
    Mar 28 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My DIY DGI Portfolio Business Plan [View article]
    I think we are getting different numbers for inflation. If I do 1.045^35 = 4.67. Then I would take the total $11.8M / 4.67 = $2.5M. if I then take 4% withdrawal I get $100k. Note these are rounded numbers.
    Jan 28 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My DIY DGI Portfolio Business Plan [View article]
    I was a bit aggressive on my inflation rate at 4.5% with a 4% withdraw rate. This should net 106k in current terms. I do realize that my inflation rate is aggressive. I wanted to prepare for a worst case scenario and then reap the benefits with earlier retirement if there is an advantage.
    Jan 27 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Support Chuck Carnevale's Preference For Valuation [View article]
    Hilo - Thanks for the comments and User thanks for the question. One of the emotional traps that I have to get out of is waiting for that perfect price. As Hilo mentioned, if you are planning on holding a long time a few pennies isn't going to make a difference. If you are operating with a margin of safety then when it gets close to your price you can place your order and still sleep soundly. I used to wait for the penny to hit exactly right before I would buy. I missed some good opportunities of growth because the price wouldn't come down 0.01%.
    Jan 16 10:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These 3 Ideas Can Jeopardize Your Investing Success [View article]
    For those of you like me who have not read this book, I found a free PDF copy available on the Miller Howard Investments Website...link below.

    http://bit.ly/XzYRKQ
    Dec 23 11:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should McDonald's Be Added To My Dividend Growth Portfolio? [View article]
    StepUp - Thank you for the comment. You highlight one of the biggest things that I am concerned about which is the need to closely follow those of interest. There is value to knowing the day in and out of the trading to give you familiarity with the company. But I am still a stickler to value. I have been trying to look at forward P/E as a potential way to filter out those that are OK vs those that are not OK. Something like KMB has a P/E of 21 but a future P/E of 17.25. Comparing future P/E can put today's over price in context. I still look for places where the future is under 15. MCD is close, but GIS and JNJ are closer. I have my list and I have my targets. I just need to be patient.
    Dec 22 02:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should McDonald's Be Added To My Dividend Growth Portfolio? [View article]
    maybenot - Thanks for the comments and the real life story. It is definitely helpful. When you are looking at a handful of good options it is tough to pick one. Especially when prices are at current rates. Like you mentioned, with time on your side you know there is time to earn from any of the names. Flip a coin and buy them all!
    Dec 22 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should McDonald's Be Added To My Dividend Growth Portfolio? [View article]
    maybenot - your commentary is right where I am having issues. As I am moving over to a self-directed portfolio, I do not have any MCD or any of the other names you have listed. Each of the companies you have here are all great and I want to buy them all. That being said, I do not see them at a price point that I want. Time in the market being better than timing the market do you just jump right in or is it best to wait for the next pull back to get me closer to my target entry price? Alternatively, I can sell puts until I get to a price I like. Thoughts?
    Dec 22 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should McDonald's Be Added To My Dividend Growth Portfolio? [View article]
    I wasn't talking down to it. I really like it and per testing I love the fake rib shape. I also agree with maybenot...I don't like how I feel after eating one, but the taste is delicious.
    Dec 19 11:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should McDonald's Be Added To My Dividend Growth Portfolio? [View article]
    StingRay - That is true. I love generic meat pressed into a rib shape covered in sauce.
    Dec 19 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Coca-Cola Be Added To My Dividend Growth Portfolio? [View article]
    Deb: thanks for the run down. Is there something specific you look for when deciding something is a CORE stock? Also, what percent do your CORE stocks make of your total portfolio?
    Dec 19 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Coca-Cola Be Added To My Dividend Growth Portfolio? [View article]
    Thanks for the update.
    Dec 19 07:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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