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Dhierin Bechai

 
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  • Will Boeing Take Off In 2015? [View article]
    Here you can find an article, I wrote, on the Q3 earnings report from Boeing:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 23 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Boeing Take Off In 2015? [View article]
    It has to take off at some point. I can't imagine Boeing shares not being awarded for beating estimates time after time. At some point investors have value the strong financial results as well, which will reflect in the stock price.

    I wrote a small piece on why Boeing lost 3% today, it should be published soon... a second article with a closer look will be published after that.
    Oct 22 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Boeing Take Off In 2015? [View article]
    You're are absolutely correct about that. Stock mainly is lower at the moment due to conservative EPS guidance that does not please Wall Street estimates.
    Oct 22 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Boeing Take Off In 2015? [View article]
    Thank you for reading.
    Oct 22 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Boeing Take Off In 2015? [View article]
    Nicely said ;)
    Oct 21 09:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Bubble Bursting Or A Healthy Correction? [View article]
    You might not have noticed that in this article I merely focused on recent events.

    After the ending of previous QEs the stock markets fell, it's a thing I know as well.
    Oct 19 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Bubble Bursting Or A Healthy Correction? [View article]
    You were right ;)
    Oct 17 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Bubble Bursting Or A Healthy Correction? [View article]
    At the moment I was writing this article, the markets were close to a correction (of 10%).
    European markets already saw a correction, but in no way this can be called a bear market. There are some worries on the economy of the Eurozone but the ECB will be forced to take measures.
    Oct 17 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing: The Airbus A330neo, A Real Competitor For The Boeing 787? (Part 5) [View article]
    You are right (to some extent). Maintenance and operation costs play a huge role for airlines.

    If you look at launch presentations for various aircraft, what you see is that manufacturers market their products using fuel efficiency comparisons, maintenance cost comparisons and market demand.


    Market demand is something that shows in the forecasts both manufacturers publish.
    Maintenance costs is something you only will be able to tell about after a couple of years (manufacturer already has delivered the airplane) and probably airlines and manufacturers are not going to share how much maintenance of certain aircraft type costs them, unless the airlines seek some sort of compensation from the manufacturer.
    Looking at performance numbers is therefore quite useful.
    Upgrading or building an airplane isn't just about hanging a fuel efficient engine under the wings. It is a design process in which you have to make decisions about fuel consumption but also aerodynamic efficiency, mission profile, weight and EIS (how much time do you have to design and manufacture and after that meet market demand for the aircraft?)... As you can see it is a process with a lot of variables and a lot of differents decisions to make to come to a design, manufacturer's will probably never make the same trade off during design... so it is important to look at performance and design characteristics (before saying it comes down to other things like maintenance and operation costs).

    Besides all that you have to , calculate and analyze the fuel efficiencies yourself. Since both Boeing and Airbus claim very big advantages over the competitor, but my previous article portrayed quite well how narrow the differences are. So don't be fooled by what either Boeing or Airbus presents you, but also don't underestimate the importance of performance analysis.
    Sep 18 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing: The Airbus A330neo, A Real Competitor For The Boeing 787? (Part 5) [View article]
    Hi Eddie,
    I thought of that as well.
    There are a few things to keep in mind though:
    1. The 767 is almost a decade older than the A330.
    2. In terms of weight and aerodynamic efficiency Boeing would have to do a lot of engineering to come up with a 767neo or 767MAX (doesn't sound to bad does it?). in terms of costs it probably wasnt a bad idea to come up with the Dreamliner, initial costs were estimated to be $6 bn for the Dreamliner. Now anno 2014 we can say another option would have been better.... but years ago nobody would have said developments costs would sky rocket to $32+ bn

    Boeing could have adapted the 777 fuselage indeed to save weight. But it wouldn't benefit to do so if you want an early service entry. The fact that Boeing is able to optimize the 777 concept this much with aerodynamic and propulsive efficiency shows how strong the concept actually is....
    At a later stage Boeing might upgrade the 777X and come with a new 777 family that actually does feature a light weight fuselage.
    I think that Boeing thought about implementing a light weight fuselage, but they also rememberd the high target they set on the Dreamliner and the price they paid for that. Wing technology from the Dreamliner has been used for the 777X, so the Dreamliner all with all is not a flop and can be a success once can make profit on the production.
    Sep 18 09:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing: The Airbus A330neo, A Real Competitor For The Boeing 787? (Part 5) [View article]
    If I had estimates on maintenance for the aircraft as well as landing and take off fees I'd be more than happy to share it with you, Unfortunately I don't have those numbers.
    Looking at the forecasts there is still is plenty of room for growth for airplane manufacturers, since demand will be high.

    The question is how much of the sales will be for Boeing and next to that Boeing should ask itself the question on how it is planning to make production for the Dreamliner a profitable one.

    Normally I am fairly positive about the Boeing strategy, but with the Dreamliner development they made a mistake. In order to optimize profitability on the airframe Boeing let other suppliers do part of the production and only did the final assembly. This has shown to be a bad decision, since costs have been piling up as well as delays... $32+ bn in development costs is a lot, even for the Dreamliner (and Boeing knows it).
    Sep 18 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing: The Airbus A330neo A Real Competitor For The Boeing 787? (Part 4) [View article]
    First of all, your caps lock seems to be stuck. You might leave that out next time you comment on an article.
    I compare what is better, not what is love by employees or customers. A valid comparison can only be made on customer satisfaction if you know how to measure it (you need extensive research and statistics for that), but it starts with customers having experience with both the Airbus A330(neo) and the Boeing 787. United Airlines doesn't have that experience, which makes your argument invalid.

    The A330 is old but the neo probably was the last squeeze out of the concept and they did quite well.

    Boeing also claimed that the Dreamliner is preferred by customers and passengers, but I can imagine Airbus saying the same about their product...
    Sep 18 06:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing: The Airbus A330neo A Real Competitor For The Boeing 787? (Part 4) [View article]
    Hi Daniel, thank you for your comment.

    I agree on a), b), c), d),f) g)
    e) True, but all with all I expect the neo to be a bit heavier (since it transports more passengers), added winglets, heavier engines and probably also will have a slighly heavier wingbox

    I think in part 1 of this series I pointed out some of the advantages the neo has. The Boeing 787 are not 2 different products in 2 different markets, they are 2 different products that can serve different markets.
    Airbus has the advantage with spare parts commonality (type ratings for pilots are similar to the A350 though).

    On the shorter routes the A330neo might be the better choice (if you already have the A330ceo in your feet). On the longer routes the Boeing 787 might be the better choice if you don't have the A330ceo in your fleet.

    In dense configurations the Dreamliner has the advantage.
    Looking at the configuration for Scoot on the 787 and the configuration used by Air Asia X on the A333ceo and add 10-20 passengers to that, the Boeing 787 still has the advantage. So the advantage lies within the fact that other costs for the ceo are lower, not because it might be a more efficient aircraft.

    One of the advantages the Dreamliner might have is that in the coming years in my get some tweaks (as Airbus did with the A330) to increase performance, whereas it is harder to squeeze more advantage out of the neo.

    The reason I made this comparison is because Airbus made quite a smart move. They have the neo now to compete with the lower side of the 787 market and the A350 to compete with the higher side of the 787 market while also competing with the 777 at the same time. I can only address so many types of aircraft in 1 article series... The comparisons I made in this series already took me about 20 pages of writing and calculations, out of that I have to select the relevant data.... add to that comparing the 787 with the A350 and we might be looking at another 20-30 pages and hours of research. So the 787-A350 comparison probably is something for a next series of articles.
    Sep 18 11:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing: The Airbus A330neo, A Real Competitor For The Boeing 787? (Part 3) [View article]
    Small update from my side. Over the past few hours I have been redoing my math and did some more thorough research into some numbers and slightly tweaked them were needed. Additionally typical seating configurations have been used. I will present the results in a Part 5 and 6 and adapt my conclusions where needed.
    Sep 16 12:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing: The Airbus A330neo, A Real Competitor For The Boeing 787? (Part 3) [View article]
    I am currently working on a part (5) that does take into account typical configurations used by airlines, which would make my work a bit less nonsense I hope.

    For the Boeing 787 I used the maximum numbers provided by Boeing. Reviewing it now it the comparison I make does not justify any of the 2 airplanes, since I compared the a maximum 2-class vs. a typical 2-class.

    Thank you for your comment though.
    Sep 15 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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