Dhierin Bechai

Airlines, industrials, aerospace, tech
Dhierin Bechai
Airlines, industrials, aerospace, tech
Contributor since: 2013
Company: Aeroanalysis
I have no insight on that, but I am pretty sure Iran ordered (ceo) aircraft due to their availability of delivery slots.
I honestly don't know what chance they have, because I don't know what they have to offer to secure a deal... I think for Iran what is most important at the moment is the combination of discount and financing.
The first aircraft will enter service this year,
Hi Slalani,
Everything is OK now :) The article has been published a couple of days ago: http://seekingalpha.co...
Boeing :-) Let's see how it goes when the first 250 aircraft are delivered to Iran.... absorbing such a number of brand new aircraft is quite a task.
The grapes were not sour. I think what Joe tries to point out is that it is rather suspicious that Airbus is able to announce a multibillion order days after sanctions have been lifted. This means that while sanctions were still in place Airbus might already have been negotiating (directly or indirectly) with Iran.
Boeing kept itself on the background in order to prevent the world from thinking that they already were negotiating with Iran, while sanctions were still in place.
Fully understand your comment though ;)
I surely will. I did make a start, but some events in my private life prevented me from finishing the article in a timely fashion.
We'll see how it goes
From what I read, Boeing kept itself on the background.... Airbus was (more) eager to secure a deal.
Agree with Water Buffalo here... I am more knowledgable on the field of aerospace and I use that to look at performance and outlooks, but I don't know where Boeing shares will head.... I hope higher of course. But any financial analyst that claims to be able to know where things are heading is foolish ;)
Let's talk when Airbus actually starts making money on the A380 production ;)
I don't think that is the reason for Boeing tanking heavily. If it is, then within weeks Boeing should be back at normal levels.
I also commented on the article you mentioned and I will repeat it here: Iran already stated that it would divide orders equally between Airbus and Boeing... so really there is no reason to worry.
A general direction of the market will also determine Boeing's performance. But with backlog stretching 7 years... I don't know why share prices should head lower.
Technically the 200 SMA offered support if I saw correctly.... Fundamentally things look quite good on the long term.
Bubble.... you are kidding I hope :)
Feel the same way about it!
With 7 years of backlog there still is a lot of revenue.... and cash to be returned to investors.
Read the news last night... writing an article about Iran and Airbus now :)
Thank you for the comment.
The addition of 2 A380s is in the most vibrant scenario (which is not going to happen), I also mentioned this in the article:"...or 2.5 months worth of production and that is in the most vibrant scenario. In the other scenario Airbus will deliver the already produced airframes for Skymark to ANA, in which case the backlog does not grow."
To be correct the actual addition is 1 unit, rhyme it with the cancellation earlier in 2015 and Airbus did not add a single unit to its backlog.
I hope it will be built, the A380 is an airplane that should be there for at least 3 more decades and I am convinced there will be a market for it.
Thanks for your comment.
A) I am aware they do not order in small volumes, but if you take that into account along with the knowledge that most airlines order 5-6 to operate the aircraft comfortably... doesn't that say anything about ANA? Because surely ANA knows how many A380s they would need for the aircraft to be worth the investment.
B) I actually touched this in the article: In the other scenario Airbus will deliver the already produced airframes for Skymark to ANA, in which case the backlog does not grow...
Actually the backlog grows by 1 unit. There are 2 Skymark aircraft built, so those don't count as backlog, 1 aircraft will be added to the backlog....
6 Aircraft are needed for comfortable operation, 3 aircraft are needed minimum, ANA ordered 3....
I am not saying the A380 is not a fantastic aircraft, in fact it is... the concept is. But the case of congested airports.... Airbus has been on that for a decade now and it still didn't happen, meanwhile the propulsion system on the A380 became obsolete. With that I want to say, your concept can be beautiful, but if your timing is poor.... you're going to have a problem. Airbus is facing that problem now.
Fair point you make here. Thank you for the 're-balance'.
As I pointed out 1 aircraft is enough for 1 route.... Skymark ordered 6 aircraft. Airbus surely will have pushed for ANA to order more. The fact that ANA didn't, does say something, whether you like it or not. Let me also point out that a lot of of airlines do take options when they order in small volumes. Qatar ordered 2 aircraft initially and took options for another 2... I didn't read about ANA doing the same. If they do have options then it does look somewhat better.
The A380 is a beautiful aircraft, but for a lot of airlines from a financial point of view... it just does not work.
Would be nice ;)
Iran already said earlier that it would divide orders between Airbus and Boeing equally...
That does change something for the physical backlog... I, however, could not find any information about whether the aircraft will be newly built or not. In an upcoming piece I did make a remark about it.
I will most probably open a position somewhere this year, depending on where markets are heading.
Yeah, I don't see any reason why they wouldn't be able to pay for them....
I have to say, although these companies are battling each other there seems to be a lot of emphasis by commenters here on illegal state aid and management flaws.
However, if you look at both companies in a fair way.... both made mistakes, both operate in a market that will grow in the coming decades. Boeing currently has solid outputs, while Airbus will increase outputs (and thus cashflow per quarter)... In the end it is not one or the other company, both have their good and bad points and I think both would be nice to have in your portfolio.
This really doesn't have anything to do with subsidies.... both manufacturers offer an aircraft for which demand is extremely low.
Thank you for reading. 1 per month indeed has been the minimum rate at which the production in viable.... The decision that Boeing has to make however is whether it is willing to cut rates and book losses on the delivered airframes or take profit and such down the program in 3-4 years from now accompanied with a write off on the tooling equipment...
It is natural.... however, most likely at some point in time there will be demand for this aircraft. It is a huge task for Boeing to reach that moment in time with at least some backlog...
If the program stops Boeing will have to write off on the tooling equipment.... The supplies are still worth money, so those will still be there for operators. The facility itself can be used ramp up productions for the Dreamliner and MAX.
Higher deliveries come from higher 787 and 737 deliveries, it remains to be seen what impact the Dreamliner deliveries have...
Last year the consensus was $2.11. This year's consensus is $0.03 higher.
The high estimate last year which was closer to the actual reported earnings was $2.31, this year's is close to $2.50.... so if the high estimate is a better representation of the actual reported earnings than there is nothing to worry about.... estimates on Boeing's earnings tend to be a little conservative.