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Dhierin Bechai  

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  • Very Large Aircraft Market Analysis: Why The Mini-Jumbos Are Closing In On The Superjumbos (Part 3) [View article]
    11-abreast has no market at the moment. It is safe, but beforehand you can tell nobody wants it. Additionally there should be at least one VLA for the future, the A380neo is that VLA.
    Emirates does a better job in filling their A380s, but I have seen load factors for the A380 that do not bode to well. I saw a load factor figure of 56% for Dubai-Melbourne. Assuming 517 seats that means 290 occupied seats. Let's increase the number of seats with 100 to mimic a 11-abreast config. If you are not able to fill those seats your load factor decreases 10 percentage points.
    Bottomline is don't expect that you are going to fill seats, just by adding them to the airframe. Even for Emirates it won't work. Emirates knows as well they won't be able to fill an 11-abreast config at the moment. If they would they probably wouldn't have pushed for an A380neo, but for an A380-900.
    Mar 27, 2015. 06:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Very Large Aircraft Market Analysis: Why The Mini-Jumbos Are Closing In On The Superjumbos (Part 3) [View article]
    There are some rules regarding weight of carry on baggage. A lot of airlines will let you take 7-12 kg of luggage into the cabin. The luggage that goes into the belly mostly has a weight of 20+ kg. Additionally you have the dimension constraints as well.
    Mar 27, 2015. 06:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Very Large Aircraft Market Analysis: Why The Mini-Jumbos Are Closing In On The Superjumbos (Part 3) [View article]
    I have to agree with Everton Drakes here. With a majority of the airlines already not being able to fill the A380 consistently an 11-abreast seating is not going to make things better. What is needed is improved efficiencies on propulsion and aerodynamics to reduce costs. This will reduce the per seat costs as well. There really is no use in adding seats to an airframe that is already hard to fill. Besides that Emirates already said it is not looking for those extra seats in particular, they just want the better engines. They set a target for the A380neo (timewise) and PIPs really aren't going to cut it to achieve the desired reduction in fuel burn.
    Mar 27, 2015. 06:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Very Large Aircraft Market Analysis: Why The Mini-Jumbos Are Closing In On The Superjumbos (Part 2) [View article]
    You are right about the A380 not being approved (yet). Part 3 should be more interesting when looking at the future players on the market.
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Of The World's Largest Aircraft Manufacturer Overvalued? [View article]
    Hi Marc,
    where exactly do you see these figures?
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Of The World's Largest Aircraft Manufacturer Overvalued? [View article]
    You are right, indeed. I am not an expert when it comes to DCF analysis but I personally think $120 is a bit conservative. The PEG-ratio also seems to be indicating this, although like every analysis tool or ratio the PEG-ratio is not a holy ratio either.
    Mar 26, 2015. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Very Large Aircraft Market Analysis: Why The Mini-Jumbos Are Closing In On The Superjumbos (Part 2) [View article]
    Cabin area is not a good reference measure to base an analysis upon as it already puts the advantage in the lap of the Airbus A380.
    The corrected seating has a a 8/42/310 configuration, I think that is somewhat more reasonable?
    The corrected configuration is represented by the green curve in figure 3 and the last set of bars in figure 4.
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Of The World's Largest Aircraft Manufacturer Overvalued? [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. The DCF method takes into account more parameters, but isn't its disadvantage that the assumptions you make highly influence the outcome?
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Very Large Aircraft Market Analysis: Why The Mini-Jumbos Are Closing In On The Superjumbos (Part 2) [View article]
    Availability to delivery slots, but more importantly the size of the airframe. The Boeing 787 is a small widebody airframe, the Boeing 777X and A350 seat 300-400 people, the Boeing 787 seats up to 300 people with the Boeing 787-10 being the exception (it has 323 seats but decreased range).
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Very Large Aircraft Market Analysis: Why The Mini-Jumbos Are Closing In On The Superjumbos (Part 2) [View article]
    Thank you for reading. I think the aerospace is one of the last industries to benefit from the economic recovery that is why it also rose so sharply recently. Airlines stop buying airframes once the global economy is in in a significant downturn, so airlines will feel the pain first....after that it will take a major downturn in global economy for aerospace gigants to feel the longterm decreased buying power; of course if this happens the decline in stock prices will be substantial.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Very Large Aircraft Market Analysis: Why The Mini-Jumbos Are Closing In On The Superjumbos (Part 2) [View article]
    Thank you for reading and for the thoughtful comments that give me some stuff to think about as well. I think GE and RR will do their very best not to miss their spec, since they missed it on the Boeing 787 already. They should have learned some lessons from that.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Very Large Aircraft Market Analysis: Why The Mini-Jumbos Are Closing In On The Superjumbos (Part 1) [View article]
    True, titanium and composites are being used for parts that experience high torque (engine blades). Of course the titanium parts are somewhat heavier, so a trade off needs to be made between weight and maintenance.
    Mar 26, 2015. 04:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Very Large Aircraft Market Analysis: Why The Mini-Jumbos Are Closing In On The Superjumbos (Part 1) [View article]
    True, but it is not a fair comparison to compare an Airbus A380 with luxury with another airframe with less luxury. You need to take into account the combination of luxury and capacity that both airframes offer. I didn't say that one of the airframes was worse, but it is a fact that you simply cannot add a lot of luxury to the smaller widebodies without losing capacity and profitability. I think we can agree on that?
    Mar 25, 2015. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Very Large Aircraft Market Analysis: Why The Mini-Jumbos Are Closing In On The Superjumbos (Part 1) [View article]
    Fair point, but re-engining extends the viable life of the program and airframe. So on the longer term it returns money. There is need for at least 1 VLA, if Airbus invests in a NEO now it has the VLA market for itself.
    Mar 25, 2015. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Very Large Aircraft Market Analysis: Why The Mini-Jumbos Are Closing In On The Superjumbos (Part 1) [View article]
    I contacted Emirates a while back and they like the Airbus A380 because it enables their passengers an unprecedented luxury standard.
    The comparison between the Airbus A350-1000 and the Boeing 777X is a fair one and I will make that comparison, but with the trend of airlines being willing to cram more seats on smaller airframes (such as the Boeing 777) it is also worth to look at how this affects the Airbus A380ceo and neo and Boeing 747-8I. In the fair comparison the A380 will be superior (you can read about that in the upcoming parts of this article as well), but it seems that airlines don't care that much about luxury anymore.
    The A380 is in a nice market and its niche market it is superior (but superior doesn't mean a single thing when it comes to airframes, demand is what it is all about). Outside the niche market the A380 is not able to survive. The A380 is being threatened by the Boeing 777 that has been moving higher and higher in the payload ranged diagram.
    In my view the Airbus A380neo is not forcing the Boeing 747-8I to retire. Where the A380 has a small market, the Boeing 747-8I has no market at all. So you either operate the Boeing 777X and decrease comfort or you buy the A380.
    Somewhere in the future there will be need for a superjumbo, the only question is whether the A380 program will still be alive by that time. Airbus doesn't seem to be having a lot of patience with the A380.
    Mar 25, 2015. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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