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Diamond Technology Management

 
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  • Merger Provides No Upside For Zillow At Current Valuation
    Thu, Aug. 7 Z 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Shorting Technology Companies On High Valuations Is Dangerous Because Of M&A Potential, Such As What Happened With Zillow And Trulia.
    • The Upside Of Consolidation Appears Priced In At Current Levels With Zillow Offering Limited Upside.
    • Zillow Produced A Great Quarter With Strong Top Line Growth.
    • Current Valuation And Risk Of Deal Closing Leave Limited Upside.
    • The Question Remains Though What If Anything Will Cause Stock To Correct To Reasonable Valuation?
  • Chegg Is A Buy On Digital Growth Prospects And Current Attractive Valuation
    Tue, Aug. 5 Comment!

    Summary

    • Chegg Grew Top Line Revenue 15% Compared To Q2 2013.
    • Digital Revenue(The Real Growth Story) Grew 54% Year Over Year.
    • Company Is Projecting Positive Free Cash Flow For 2014.
    • Book Value Provides Some Downside Protection Trading At Roughly Two Times Book Value Versus AMZN Thirteen Times Book Value.
    • Valuation Is Attractive Relative To High Growth Internet Peers At 1.7 Times Revenue.
  • Why You Should Consider Investing In Man's Best Friend
    Wed, Jul. 30 KIN 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Company is uniquely positioned at the intersection of enormous markets.
    • Kindred Biosciences has a world class team with veterinary and human drug development experience.
    • Company offers investors a deep pipeline to diversify the risk.
    • Major launches set to begin in 2015.
  • The Zillow Short Instruction Manual
    Mon, Jul. 21 Z 39 Comments

    Summary

    • Zillow Is A Victim Of Its Own Success, Now Hopelessly Overvalued.
    • Insiders Including CEO Have Been Selling Shares Consistently Within The Month.
    • Even bullish sell-side analysts only project limited upside from current levels.
    • Zillow Operates In Enormous Markets But Valuation Already Reflects This.
    • Any Slowdown In Growth, Margins, Or A General Market Sell-Off Could Send Stock Crashing.
  • Zulily Average Revenue Per Baby Looking Good
    Mon, Jul. 14 ZU Comment!

    Summary

    • Zulily is the leading mom brand, a site which is fun and engaging for moms shopping online.
    • Strong technology platform with expansive mobile presence.
    • Strong balance sheet and moving toward profitability.
    • Valuation is expensive at 5 times trailing revenue and 84 times forward 2015 earnings.
  • Why Ziopharm Looks Worth Adding To Your Biotechnology Portfolio Pipeline
    Mon, Jul. 14 ZIOP 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Company has ability to deliver DNA and stimulate a controlled therapeutic immune response.
    • Investor returns drive by multiple products and collaborations, not one or two.
    • Intrexon partnership is expanding pipeline.
    • Numerous upcoming clinical milestones.
    • High short interest makes this more interesting long investment.
  • Einstein Noah: Could This Be The Next Dunkin Donuts
    Fri, Jul. 11 DNKN, BAGL 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Strong unit economics on a per store basis.
    • Shareholder friendly management with history of dividends and share repurchases.
    • Growing base of stores with ability to significantly expand product offerings.
    • Company has grown same store sales 10 of the last 12 quarters.
    • Greenlight’s large equity position is major risk factor.
  • Insider Selling Foretelling Of Zillow Falling 30% Post Short Squeeze
    Tue, Jul. 8 Z 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Zillow's common equity is currently in a bubble due to the large short interest.
    • Insiders, including CEO, are selling their shares at these record prices (Why wouldn't they...).
    • Zillow operates in an enormous market; however, most of this growth is priced in at a forward price to earnings ratio of 160.
    • Zillow has limited upside potential in the next 18 months and large downside risk.
    • Timing a Zillow short can be tough, as most of this analysis was true when the stock was at $70 per share a year ago.
  • Why I Closed My Sears Long Position
    Mon, Jun. 23 SHLD 54 Comments

    Summary

    • There is no timeline on a catalyst to correct SHLD stock value to its intrinsic sum of the parts valuation.
    • Real estate may be worth $100 a share but there is no time horizon on when/If it will ever be monetized.
    • There are other investment opportunities that have more catalysts to correct current stock price to intrinsic value.
    • Only recent catalysts have been hedge funds taking large positions in the company, earnings have not functioned as catalyst because EBITDA trends are horrific.
    • Lands End spin-off removes one of only lucrative segments.
  • Earnings Could Function As Catalyst For Chegg
    Thu, May. 1 CHGG 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Recent acquisition of student deals platform is first of many acquisitions to come.
    • Management discussion of digital transition could help to correct market's view that Chegg is a "Textbook Company."
    • View Chegg's print revenue as a floor on the stock price with digital business offering substantial upside.
  • Chegg's Digital Business Alone Justifies Current Share Price
    Tue, Apr. 1 LNKD, CHGG 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Sum of The Parts Analysis Yields Significant Upside Potential.
    • Chegg Can Eventually Move Into Career Sector And Challenge Linkedin.
    • Chegg is analagous to Netflix in its misunderstood business model transition.
  • Chegg Could Double
    Thu, Mar. 13 CHGG 9 Comments

    Summary

    • CHGG's transition away from textbook sales and rental offers substantial growth for investors.
    • Margin profile of CHGG likely to improve dramatically with non-print transition.
    • Valuation is acceptable at current levels given revenue growth profile.
  • Chegg Sell-Off Creates Opportunity
    Wed, Feb. 19 CHGG 14 Comments
  • Get Educated On Chegg And Make Some Money
    Tue, Jan. 21 CHGG 24 Comments
  • Is Regado Biosciences Worth Adding To Your Biotech Portfolio?
    Nov. 12, 2013 RGDO 6 Comments
  • Deckers: Why The Short Interest Is So High
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 18, 2013 DECK 30 Comments
  • Luxury At An Affordable Price: Why Coach Looks Appealing
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 11, 2013 COH 3 Comments
  • The Biggest Loser: A Compelling Short Opportunity In Vivus
    Sep. 20, 2013 ARNA, VVUS 63 Comments
  • Long Case For Sears: A Balance Sheet Story
    Sep. 5, 2013 SHLD 57 Comments
  • Zillow: A Short-Term Short But A Long-Term Business
    Aug. 15, 2013 Z 9 Comments
  • Skullcandy: Not Dead Yet
    Editors' Pick • Aug. 2, 2013 SKUL 10 Comments