Advertising is not a big part of the proposed merger of Comcast (CMCSA) and NBCU -- yet.

It represents only about 20% of the new NBCU's total revenues, a figure the new owners intend to change. The road to revenue growth is paved with interactive ad riches -- a long, twisted path through cable, online and mobile. The big question is, how long will it take for those options to ramp up?

The new NBCU will be a top 10 provider of online content with 82 million unique monthly users to its news, women's/lifestyle, sports and entertainment sites, where revenues are minimal. Traditional advertising contributes to about half of NBCU's overall revenues, but only about 5% of Comcast's consolidated revenues.

Broadcasters are about to experience the equivalent of the Big Bang, warns Akamai Technologies (AKAM) CEO Paul Sagan, a broadcast and cable veteran whose company facilitates more than one-fifth of the world's Web traffic.

The ability to match high-definition TV picture quality with Internet interactivity is creating a sea change for online video that will begin rippling through the television industry in 2010. Only TV station owners that leap to the new arena, playing the strength of their hyper-local connections, will survive.

"The dominos are going to fall. The television industry is going to feel the impact of the Internet that music and print have suffered through," Sagan told me. "It will change everything about television production, distribution, advertising -- where revenues come from and how wealth is created."

Arianna Huffington says she will not charge consumers for content, and that her meteoric Huffington Post will rely on interactive advertising and other applications to pay the bills.

"We have plans for mobile, but no plans to charge for it. Our business model is advertising and marketing, as well as a nonprofit approach to investigative journalism," Huffington told me in a recent interview. "This is a time for reinventing journalism and advertising."

It could just be posturing, but Vivendi (VIVEF.PK) says it is in no hurry to sell its 20 percent stake in NBC Universal, which would trigger a $30 billion deal to make Comcast (CMSCA) the majority owner. Even if the transaction does not occur, there will be interesting fallout.

Vivendi is in talks to unload its minority stake to the highest bidder. That could be NBCU co-owner General Electric (GE), a third party, or the public (in a stock offering). Vivendi has until 2012 to sell its stake during an annual window from Nov. 15 to Dec. 10. Sources close to the deal say cash-strapped GE would place $12 billion against the new NBCU to buy out Vivendi. GE would be a minority owner in NBCU with Comcast.

Monaco--Advertising will not pay the freight for digital media, like it has for newspapers and television, as it morphs into an interactive experience riveted on transactions, according to Publicis Groupe (PUB) Chairman and CEO Maurice Levy.

"Advertising cannot cover the cost of everything in the new digital media world. Other sources of generating revenues will have to be created, such as having consumers pay for some content. It cannot all be free or paid for with advertising," Levy told me in a weekend interview at the Monaco Media Forum, co-sponsored by Publicis.

Don’t be surprised if Comcast (CMCSA) arranges to sell the NBC broadcast network and its TV stations to a third part,y after announcing plans to buy controlling ownership of NBC Universal as early as next week.

Potential buyers for the NBC TV network and its 10 owned TV stations (in the top 25 markets) could include major NBC affiliated television groups owners such as Hearst (HTV), Gannett (GCI), Belo (BLC) and E.W. Scripps (SSP).

Cable networks are a sweet spot in a media industry struggling to find its financial footing. They are driving conglomerates' earnings as well as richly priced deals, and will be a growth vehicle for branded content across all digital platforms.

Whether it is Comcast's bid for 51% ownership of NBC Universal (GE) or Scripps Networks Interactive's (SSP) 65% control of The Travel Channel, cable networks are commanding mid- to-high-teens earnings multiples at a time when most media values are in flux.

The unintended consequences of Yahoo (YHOO) and AOL (TWX) repositioning themselves as online content companies and magnets for television advertisers is that they will be targets for acquisition or strategic partnerships in an improving economy.

Yahoo and AOL could be choice assets to savvy players that are better at integrating and utilizing than Time Warner's debacle with AOL. It may be unthinkable to suggest that AOL should enter a new corporate relationship after an agonizing decade. But it is difficult to imagine AOL -- or Yahoo, for that matter -- flourishing long-term as stand-alone entities, even if they succeed in adjusting to their new business models. Here's why:

• Both companies command valuable online audiences that can be better monetized by a smart partner. AOL's audience is valued at around $1.7 billion, based on Yahoo's audience valuation of $11 billion, according to Credit Suisse analyst Spencer Wang.
• Both companies are limited in value they can create from their audience base over the next five years.
• Including its access service, Wang figures AOL's overall stand-alone value is at least $4 billion. (Compare that to AOL's $161 billion value when it merged with Time Warner in 2000 and its $20 billion value when Google paid $1 billion for a 5% stake in 2005.)
• AOL's total revenues are expected to stagnate just below $3 billion through 2014, when its adjusted operating income (before depreciation and amortization) is expected to decline to about $600 million from $975 million this year, Wang estimates.
• Yahoo's revenues will decline 13.5% to $4.7 billion this year, and average only 4.8% through 2014. Its operating income will decline 11% to about $1 billion in 2009 and grow an average 11% to $1.7 billion by 2014 -- due largely to aggressive cost management, Wang says. Yahoo's $22 billion equity-market cap is the lowest of its Internet peers, half of which is comprised by its 40% stake in Alibaba Group and 35% stake in Yahoo Japan.

Still, Yahoo and AOL have heavily invested in original and third-party content, making them more valuable to larger media players. While both companies continue new initiatives -- such as improved home and search pages, mail, mobile connections and content categories -- none are game-changing enough to do more than generate incremental gains. Yahoo continues its longtime lead in news, sports and finance, while AOL is making good strides with its robust content verticals.

Hulu's online video platform may be a success with the masses, but it will have to begin charging for at least some of its content if it doesn't want to destroy the $185 billion television ecosystem it draws from.

Broadcast and cable TV are under siege by the very interactive digital technology that will extend their profitability. Television networks are finding it difficult to aggregate large audiences that generate ad revenues and fees to underwrite production. New platforms like Hulu could possibly help to ease that financial imbalance. However, the longer the ad-supported video hub remains free, the more it contributes to television's demise, according to a new report by Soleil Securities analyst Laura Martin. Her arguments and math are clear-cut.

Annual domestic TV ad revenue is about $65 billion and video subscription revenue is about $120 billion. The overall market cap of media companies participating in the TV value chain is an estimated $330 billion, Martin says. All is at risk due to a variety of factors, including $600 million in value transferred to Hulu by its owners -- General Electric's (GE) NBC Universal, News Corp.'s (NWS) Fox and Walt Disney Co. (DIS) -- for which they receive no payment.

A case can be made just a month into the new TV season that the Big 4 networks are not taking enough strategic risk to ameliorate the continuing erosion of ad revenues, audiences and content economics.

One of the few calculated risks worth noting is NBC's move of Jay Leno from late-night to weeknights at 10 pm EST, which is the most pilloried maneuver this fall. Although it has cost the General Electric (GE) owned NBC TV network and many of its affiliated stations double the steep ratings losses of its rivals in that pivotal time slot (a decline of about 33%), it is a risk that could have financial upside regardless of the talk-show's continuing performance.

The full year of "Leno" that NBC has committed to will cost less to produce and market than the original hour-long drama it replaces. Already a proven commodity, "Leno" is likely to generate higher advertising revenues and profit over time, regardless of early missed ratings guarantees, although the show will be useless as a syndication option.

Mobile connected devices clearly are the universal screen of choice – and not just because of this week’s big news that Dell (DELL) will brand its first smart phone, Verizon Wireless (VZ) will offer customers Google’s Android (GOOG) operating system and Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows Mobile apps will be loaded into 30 new smart phones by year’s end.

While tech and telecom giants slug it out on the retail front, the real story is consumers’ 24/7 love affair with wireless mobile devices.

Comcast's bid to co-own NBC Universal is a grab for digital content dominance that will trigger influential paid models, force a revamp of broadcast television and spawn a new wave of media deals.

Despite the favorable deal terms discussed, Comcast would have to justify the bold move by creating pay walls for content, reducing its reliance on advertising, and revamping broadcast TV and cable delivery, which will be increasingly marginalized by streaming video online.

Radical changes to existing business models are inevitable in the creation of a new media giant that defies the industry's dismal track record with such unions.

The escalating risks associated with buying NBC Universal (GE) or any traditional media conglomerate -- which includes declining TV stations and broadcast networks -- is why Comcast (CMCSA) will likely settle for a 51 percent stake in the company, for now.

Corporate parent General Electric is in talks to spin off NBCU into a private company to which Comcast would contribute an estimated $6 billion in content assets and about $7 billion in cash. Although GE's 80 percent ownership would be reduced to 49 percent, it would accrue NBCU cash flow on its balance sheet and could transfer an estimated $12 billion in debt to the stand-alone entity, sources said. A report on NBCU-owned CNBC confirmed some of the details being discussed with Comcast, the nation's largest cable operator.

Walt Disney (DIS) CEO Bob Iger is likely to couple the appointment of a new studio chief with new initiatives and changes aimed at reinventing the film business for the digital age.

The recent, abrupt departure of veteran studio chief Dick Cook frees Iger to revamp the studio process and structure in response to the intensifying impact of the digital tsunami and the recession on Disney's free-falling filmed entertainment revenues and earnings. The studio, which has contributed as much as 15% of Disney's total operating income, has posted its first quarterly losses in about five years.

The cross-company leveraging of Disney's evergreen brand and character franchises, a hallmark of Iger's four-year tenure, has been a vulnerable defense to rapidly changing consumer behavior. Iger is likely to embrace some dramatic new approaches to film distribution, marketing, merchandising and financing.

The elephant in the room at Advertising Week sessions in New York beginning today is the ongoing reluctance of companies to mine user preferences and other data many consumers are willing to share in exchange for more relevant products and services.

The complicated business of online data mining is core to nascent interactive marketing and e-commerce, which have stalled during the recession even as consumers continue to go digital. This week’s advertising conclave should be the place to more thoroughly examine and debate data mining and other new sciences that will shape the interactive marketplace. It is sure to be broached in discussions about consumer trust, and maybe even in a Faceboook session aptly titled “Knowing is Better.”