Dimitrios Koutsoubos

Long/short equity, value, long-term horizon, portfolio strategy
Dimitrios Koutsoubos
Long/short equity, value, long-term horizon, portfolio strategy
Contributor since: 2013
"I believe that it is unlikely we will experience moments of tranquility, but Ι also think that the accident is going to be avoided. What is more possible, in the following weeks or months, is for moments to come during which investors and the public will think that Grexit has come, with sudden salvation at last minute."
If we move forward an agreement, the article comes true.... We can say that we have lived at least a "mini accident", but now the patient is begging to return to bed. We have reached the edge.
I will write a new article when we have a more clear view. The Greek political scenery is the key....
If I tell you:
Hmmm, send me 2000$ through Paypal. I will repay you tommorow. Will you do it?
If you do it and then lose your money, you are also responsible.
If you talk about ethics, yes you are right. But if you talk about responsibility, you are not.
"Syriza can perhaps best be seen as a reshapable expression of Greece run amok, and not as a true representation of Greece itself."
Reshaping seems that has started. Is it going to continue? Is it going to be succesfull?
You live the external pressure... Here in Greece we live the internal pressure that already started.
Dear Thomas the greek issue is total different. The cost of rescuing is not the big problem. You have a country with people voting and not a bank that can be easily controlled by a state.
The big issue in Greece is how to reform the country. If you put much austerity in order to make people more responsible, you kill the economy. If you give them money, they will not find any reason why they should reform themselves. If you give them money and demand reforms, they will tell you that you intervene and democracy is abolished.
Europeans should have a more soft policy before. If they become softer now that Greeks shout, you know what you will get? You will teach Greeks to shout and be uncoperative. Then it is Italy, Spain.....
It is not a simple issue... It is not just the economic cost.
The large correction confirms the idea of the article.
Greek Market was not and is not tremendously cheap.
If you were Greek for a day you would understand how the situation is and the dangers. Number one factor is how society changes and how political system acts.
People here live their myth, that the evil Europeans and IMF came to conquer our rich country. They still believe that we will oust them and then we will be able to live like before. The dream of 90% of them is to find a job in public sector, even in private sector, through a politician.
Many believe that Greeks should live a shock in order to change, but you know none can guarantee that their minds will change in a positive way...
In Greece clientelism and micro-corruption are the fundamental issues that affect country's progress.
I live in Nafplio, a town 150km from Athens.
Great Article! I agree with you.
How you found that P/E=1? I think you should check it better.
I just did a quick calculation for you. I hope it is right. 57billion for FTSE20
I also found an article of 5 Nov 2007, saying that capitalization for ftse20 had reached 104,4 billion at around 2800 points.
So if the calculation is right, now it is like 1500points. Almost X 4 than it currently is.
This is consistent with my feeling that indexes lie.
It is a good company. Returning to profits = fair valued, Tough times continuing = expensive.
Do you believe in Grecovery?
If yes, construction companies (ELLAKTOR, GEKTERNA, AVAX) are a good bet in my opinion.
Then I like and have invested in small caps like Newsphone and Kleemann. Nireus Aquaculture is a cheap but very risky company.
Folli Follie is a more defensive option with international activities. HTO or PPC still be relatively cheap. Don't except to ten-fold your money. This has already happened for the 2012 buyers.
If you feel that a new election tragedy is coming, you 'd better wait.
Unfortunately, now there is not a lot of margin of safety.
Maybe you would be right if banks were totally wiped out. In our case, they are index leaders. We have a lot of capital added in "fair" price. It is total different.
The 3000 points reference is what I feel through my experience. Keep in mind that there are a lot of other non-financial companies that have gone bankrupt or need recapitalization.
Never say never.... In case of the 3000 we will have really expensive stocks!
I never try to predict market. I just know what I must do. Buy when stocks are cheap, and sell when they are expensive.
It depends on the strategy. Some people follow the trend and they do not care if shares are cheap or expensive.
I really don't know if technical analysis works for the index after the huge recapitalization. Furthermore, all these warrants will not let bank stocks "fly". But you are right, it is possible to see some speculation.
Thank you too for your comment.
If someone believes in a sure recovery maybe it is not too bad. In my opinion there is risk, so risk-reward in not so good. Anyway, there are some interesting small caps. So, I would not say "don't buy Greek stocks", but I can definitely say that ASE is lying.
Whatever premium?
Believe me, If I had to choose a stock to buy and hold for ever, maybe I would go for CL!
Buffet does not look at trend and chart...
I believe CL will under-perform. If we have a rising stock-market, it is obvious that you will get a loss from such a short position. So, check my conclusion.
The target depends on the market. If everything goes up and CL has relative small gains, I can close the position in loss. But think what is going to happen because of the hedging.
I have made a virtual long-short fund in my greek blog. It is early to present results, but for the moment I have gains and not losses.
Generally, I think it is funny to talk about fundamentals checking 5days or 1month performance. Anyway, watch that CL follows sp500.
(Check performance from 17 Oct)
I believe that the price will be lower in the next market crash. Sb would say: "Every stock will probably be lower in the next market crash". Yes, but CL is one of the most expensive
CL can do a hard damage to a short seller in the very long term, but I like it because it is more predictable and stable than LNKD or CRM. Anyway, I never short without hedging. I am long in cheaper stocks.
Debt will be a real problem if debtors lose confidence after some bad results. It is not so possible for its sector, but yes if we have an "accident", CL will be so vulnerable.
Thanks for the point. I only made an indirect reference talking about "leverage".
These safe giants may be challenged by rapid technology changes in future.
Yes, short can be disastrous, without hedging. Furthermore, never use a large portion of your money for it.
I agree with you, that is way it is not bad for long-term investors
Great Article! It is the most meaningful article that I have read about LinkedIn. Congratulations, keep working!
Congratulations for the nice article. I almost totally agree and I am short TESLA.
In short-term i am afraid the way that bubbles behave. In long-term I am not so afraid but i am concerned about the possibility that most capital raise can happen in high stock price. Then you will see, that for 10billion equity the dilution will not be so tragic. Furthermore, they can use leverage in order to issue just 10 billion and do the investments with foreign capital.
I dont think that this is so possible becouse I dont think that they can sell so many cars - they will encounter competition, but i the thing that I afraid most.
In your model in year13 you calculate 45billion in revenue and not 800billion as you say. So, what are you saying below?
"If LNKD actually grew by that much, it would have $800 billion in revenue and nearly $30 billion in NOPAT. "
I dont know what is wrong with your DCF valuation but it makes no sense saying
"To justify its current valuation of ~$240/share, LNKD must grow after tax profit (NOPAT) by 30% compounded annually for 24 years.
If LNKD actually grew by that much, it would have $800 billion in revenue and nearly $30 billion in NOPAT. "
Believe me if you have 800billion in revenue, with no growth and earnings in that year, the valuation would be much more than 240$, which are only less than 30billion.
How can you say that??
I agree that Groupon seems to be overvalued here. And you were also right, that the stock was undervalued under 3$.
In technology sector it is difficult to predict things. In many occasions, when the others are optimistic, you 'd better be pessimistic.
Thank you Anastasios for this very interesting Article. It is unbeliavable!
It reminds me the situation that we had between the futures and spot prices of Eurobank.
Ok, it is difficult to keep a short position, but who is buying and why?
I agree that the valuation seems to be crazy! If we don't have extreme growth, investors will loose their money.
But, thinking about the earnings of the next 10years its tricky about a growth company. If such a growth really happens, p/e in the 10th year should easily be lets say 20. So with 1 billion earnings, stock could afford current price.
Anyway, its almost impossible!
If windows8 for mobile fails, Nokia will be in a big trouble. Sometimes in technology sector you can't talk about partial success. The market share of the platform has to be significant, otherwise it will have the same end that Symbian had.
I agree that Nokia has a valuable brand.
I agree that the balance sheet can stand one more failure.
I agree that there is a potential that Nokia will present a best seller some time in the future, with sales setting records
I agree that it seems to be cheap. Capitalization equals 1/5th of sales.
But there is a probability to have the extinction of a dinosaur ahead. Kodak, Netscape... had the same end.
It is a 50/50 bet. But when you win you earn 5$, paying only 1$ to join.