Dirk McCoy

Five Top Solar Power Stocks

"People see what they want to see". I'm not sure who first made this statement, but when it comes to alternative energy, it applies in spades.

The planet is either melting or freezing, depending on what you want to see. Thin film flat panels are either the cat's meow, or doomed to failure, depending on what you want to see. The government is either going to eliminate our use of oil, or default on debt such that the dollar- and our government's ability to collect and/or print them- will become worthless, depending on what you want to see.

The reality will take awhile to present itself, but the latest data seems clear- the answers will be somewhat in the middle. There may be a threat of global warming, but universities are presenting current data showing global cooling, and the Harvard, MIT PhDs. presenting data showing correlation to solar activity are gaining credibility (and Prof. Ball has published 31 articles on climate change, not 5- there was a retraction printed). But the concerns associated with foreign oil and dirty coal, irregardless of climate change, are not going away.

Thin film is lower cost and more effective in diffuse light, but CPV in the Southwest (or maybe Mexico...) combines 40% efficiency with maximum sunpower (3-4X New York) and lower cost materials so should be cost king, especially IF big storage is solved (the electric distribution companies could invest heaviliy in this with companies like Riverbank Power). Thermal solar (or a hybrid) is currently the lowest cost technology- and they will probably all survive and grow over time because oil prices WILL go up again to a point where having an alternative energy source at a small price penalty will make strategic sense, and there will be lots of people in places like the Northeast that will want to have their own generation ability so CPV won't work for them.

And the dollar and the US government will survive, although the dollar will weaken. Inflation was moderate when there was $20 Trillion in additional credit floating around, so the Fed's $12 Trillion isn't going to cause an inflationary firestorm, even if the Chinese and Arabs start moving a couple extra trillion back into the US.

I'm not investing, or invested, in solar over the next month or two because this earnings season is going to be brutal and create a downdraft in about everything, but I think most of the solar companies will survive and create value long term. I particularly like EMKR, BA, and FSLR because they are producing what will become the bullets in the solar wars. And even if solar only produces 30% of our power in 100 years when a major increase in energy for 9-10 billion people relying on desalinization, networked media, and electric transportation that will eat electricity- that's a LOT of modules.