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  • Emerson Electric: A No-Brainer For Long-Term Investors [View article]
    Agree that EMR looks like a good long term purchase at this price so I added it to my portfolio today.
    Feb 9, 2015. 11:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Frothy Market Beginners Portfolio Grows Cash By Doing Nothing But Owning Shares [View article]
    Nope, had that thrill already by buying CVX!
    Feb 7, 2015. 08:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Frothy Market Beginners Portfolio Grows Cash By Doing Nothing But Owning Shares [View article]
    Great, check your private messages and we'll get together. When we set something up, we can invite the rest of the gang for the first annual DGI Meet up in Florida.

    A couple of activities that may be of interest:

    1) Sporting Clay outing - if everyone wants to meet with a gun in their hand.

    2) Deep sea fishing outing - do we really want to be stuck on a boat together for hours if Larry shows up?

    3) Dinner and drinks on the beach - sounds the like safest of the above three.
    Feb 6, 2015. 04:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Frothy Market Beginners Portfolio Grows Cash By Doing Nothing But Owning Shares [View article]
    I'd add to KO and PG. I'd put a limit order in for 100 KO @ $40 and 50 PG @ $82.50 and hope they get filled. These prices may provide a 3.3% yield on cost after the coming dividend increase. I would have said CVX and GE for higher yields if you didn't already have overweights in those two.

    P.S. If you and Crosetti get together in Florida, don't forget to invite me to the party. I'd prefer to meet on the west coast somewhere between Sarasota and Naples. We could start the first annual DGI Meetup in FL.
    Feb 6, 2015. 03:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Target Or Procter & Gamble For Long-Term Dividends? [View article]
    Doug, I usually really like your articles, but this one misses the mark. You forgot to factor in the effect of the increasing payout ratio. The payout ratio at TGT went from 20% to 49% over the past 5 years. Earnings growth was only 0.3% annualized over the same period. I don't believe that spectacular dividend growth is sustainable looking forward. Earnings growth was 10% over the past 15 year period, which may be a better assumption for future dividend growth.
    Feb 5, 2015. 02:53 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Realities And Contingencies [View article]
    My story is the same as Mike's. My first job was as a credit manager for a large public utility. In that position, I heard the same story as Mike's from 1,000's of men in their 50's. That experience made an impression on me, so I began saving a great deal of my household income throughout my career. When my career ended at 52, like Mike, I was prepared to simply retire. My wish is that the young people reading these stories prepare for an earlier than planned retirement.
    Feb 5, 2015. 10:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Aristocrat Chevron And I Have Parted Company - Here's Why [View article]
    Paul, I will admit that the recent buyers also bought half of my CVX shares this week. But those that suggest that they are buying from those "selling in a panic" are wrong.

    As the stock was falling since December, I kept adding to my position to reduce my cost basis. At the time of the sale near $110, my cost basis was below $108. So I thank the recent buyers for pushing the stock price up and allowing me to unload my excessive shares and reset my cost basis.

    I know Paul is a very astute investor and would bet that he will also gain from his action. Remember that for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

    Thank you Paul for sharing your thoughts on CVX.
    Feb 5, 2015. 09:53 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron beats by $0.21, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Earnings by Business Segment Q4-2014 Q4-2013 12mo-2014 12mo-2013
    Upstream $2,673 $4,852 $16,893 $20,809
    Downstream 1,518 390 4,336 2,237

    Look at the quarterly earnings by segment. Upstream dropped $2.2 billion quarter on quarter offset by a downstream gain of $1.1 billion quarter on quarter.

    That's what's great about owning an integrated oil. The loss in upstream is offset by a gain in downstream.

    I'm happy to be long CVX!
    Jan 30, 2015. 09:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Total Income Growth Is More Important Than Dividend Growth [View article]
    David, We are on the same page. I agree its time to go fishing in the lake and not in the market. My reply to your comment was not directed at you, but was meant to generic.

    I want investors to think hard (over think) about any stock purchases at the current time. The articles I've been reading on SA are way too complacent and are just bull market bravado. Many seem convinced that dividend stocks are bulletproof and can be bought at any price. The new nifty fifty . . . That kind of enthusiasm concerns me and therefore I have pulled back from commenting on SA.

    I just throw in a zinger every once in a while so you guys know I am still alive! Its all good brother . . .
    Jan 29, 2015. 03:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Total Income Growth Is More Important Than Dividend Growth [View article]
    "What I think is happening here is that some people are way overthinking this whole notion of DGI."

    What I see happening here is that the "safe" stocks have mostly been bid up to valuations that are not justified based on their future growth prospects. When I look at the FASTGraphs of the dividend aristocrats, I don't see much value or yield. When that changes, I will stop overthinking things.
    Jan 29, 2015. 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Total Income Growth Is More Important Than Dividend Growth [View article]
    Miller Howard Investments, the firm behind the book "The Single Best Investment" has developed an "Income Yield Calculator" that is very useful to visualize your future income based on current yield and growth projections. You can use it for free at their website: http://bit.ly/1yQfFEn

    When combining what Eli has said in this article with the visualization of the concept using the HMI calculator, I realize that the below 3% yielding growth stocks have limited value in my retirement portfolio. I need to invest in stocks with higher beginning yields, preferably around 4%, with good growth potential. The problem is there are very few high-yield high-growth candidates in the current market. Right now my favorites are GE and CVX.
    Jan 29, 2015. 07:58 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: The $10 Billion Non-Cash Charge Is Not As Bad As It Seems [View article]
    Notsosmart Q: "how is it that the employees who have the job of figuring these pension projections cant get it right from the start?"

    A: They are motivated to place a high return expectation on pension returns to increase current corporate earnings.

    Here is a dated, but easy to understand, document that explains pension accounting and its affect on earnings. http://bit.ly/1ABHBc3

    Following is a direct quote from the document:

    Q: How does a company calculate its pension income?
    A: A company's pension income is calculated by taking the pension plan's assets and applying the rate of return the company anticipates on its pension plan -- about 8% or higher at many companies. That figure
    then gets balanced against the costs of servicing the plan, which then is modified further in some cases by gains or losses incurred in previous years -- but more on that issue later.

    The resulting pension-income figure then is factored into a company's earnings statement, typically as part of sales, general and administrative expenses. If pension income is positive, it shows up as a reduction in
    sales, general and administrative expenses, although it usually isn't broken out as a separate line item. At some companies, the income generated by pension plans can be a very significant percentage of earnings.
    Jan 19, 2015. 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Generating $100 A Month From AT&T [View article]
    Paul, The market has been very cooperative up to this point in my retirement. My income and account balance are both above plan. At this early retirement point I'm using the excess to build a cushion for the next "holy crap moment" rather than spending the windfall. After I get through a holy crap moment or two as a retiree, I might feel comfortable spending some of the windfall. But for now, I'm happy to use the excess to increase my income and give me a cushion for my first holy crap moment as a retiree. Thanks for sharing the emotions that I will feel as a retiree living on my capital.
    Jan 9, 2015. 07:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Generating $100 A Month From AT&T [View article]
    Paul, I was also just furthering the conversation rather than being critical of your comment. I have learned much from you and other long-term retirees. I retired young like you (52) and am only in my third year of retirement. I believe you also retired around the same age as me, but have 15 years of additional experience that will be helpful to me and others on SA. Keep the comments coming!
    Jan 9, 2015. 03:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Generating $100 A Month From AT&T [View article]
    Paul, you are correct that the true cost of a cellphone comes down to the interest rate used in the calculation. Since you want to bring up the ongoing "income vs total return" debate into this discussion, I thought I'd play along. I calculated the total return on the S&P 500 since 12/31/95 and got 8.1%. Then I calculated the present value of a $1200 annual payment (annuity) using the market's 8.1% return and got $15,000. You are correct that a cell phone may not cost $21,000, when using the market's long-term total return as the interest rate. But how many cell phones do you think AT&T would sell if they charged $15,000 up front? As a retiree living on your capital, be it income or total return, the amount of capital it takes to cover your monthly expenses becomes much more obvious.
    Jan 9, 2015. 04:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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