One of the most challenging chart patterns is now upon the Dow Jones Transportation Index (IYT). That chart pattern is the triple top formation. Triple tops can be considered challenging because they imply a three strikes rule of baseball. If the batter swings and misses three times then they're out for that at bat.

The triple top usually indicates that investors have, or are about to give up on the particular stock or index. This could be an instance of the market bulls capitulating to whatever forces are at play. One thing is certain, if the downtrend of the Transports continues then we could expect the index to go to the previous low of 3600, which implies a Dow Industrials (DIA) of 9700.

1. Wal-Mart (WMT) up 6.46%
2. Cardinal Health (CAH) up 14.43%
3. Weyco (WEYS) down 0.8%
4. Bard Inc. (BCR) up 3.62%
5. Northwest Natural Gas (NWN) up 1.01%
6. Piedmont Natural Gas (PNY) down 3.67%
7. Becton Dickinson (BDX) up 5.77%
8. McCormick & Co. (MKC) up 6.71%
9. Abbott Laboratories (ABT) up 5.73%
10. ExxonMobil (XOM) up 4.62%

As an investor, I believe that the performance of these stocks need to be put in perspective. There are three tiers that I like to categorize my investments:

1. As compared to the historical CAGR of the stock market
2. As compared to the gains in a single month
3. As compared to if the money was in government guaranteed alternatives

In Category 1, I have calculated the 100 year compound annual growth rate for the S & P 500 (this is being generous) at 11.57% (Jan. 1, 1908 to Dec. 31, 2008). To me, any investment return greater than 11.57% in less than a year is considered as a sell candidate.

"Monsanto Company along with its subsidiaries, is a worldwide provider of agricultural products for farmers. The Company’s seeds, biotechnology trait products, and herbicides provide farmers with solutions to produce foods for consumers and feed for animals. The Company operates in two segments: Seeds and Genomics, and Agricultural Productivity."

Although Monsanto (MON) isn't a Dividend Achiever or a member of the Nasdaq 100, the company has a solid history and provides investors with an exceptional opportunity.

Today's research recommendation is AquaAmerica (WTR). According to Yahoo! Finance's water utilities review, WTR is ranked as the second largest water utility based on market capitalization.

The most important point about this research recommendation is that WTR has fallen to a brand new low during market hours on Friday October 30th. This low may soon match the 2-year low of around $14.50 set in mid-October 2008. This is fascinating because the actual lowest point after the market peak of 2006 at $30 is no longer on our last 52-week radar. However, we will watch to see if the ultimate low of $14.50 is reached.

It has been a while since I last mentioned the Demand Deposits of Commercial Banks. It is necessary for me to review what I said in my February 11, 2009 posting. At the time, I felt that what I was observing was so important that it deserved the title "Convergence of Extraordinary Forces." In retrospect, that article seemed prescient considering that only one month later the stock market would embark on one of the most unforgettable rises in history.

Let's review what I said back in February of 2009:

Q: What's your prediction on when a retest of the old lows will happen and what level are you projecting? And what do you mean by capitulation, a term typically associated with market lows, not market highs?

A: First, the word capitulate has been used, in many instances, in the wrong way. According to the Online Etymology Dictionary, the word capitulation originally meant “an agreement.” Capitulation later morphed into the modern word that means “to surrender.” In either case, capitulate means that two sides come to terms, reach an agreement or one side surrenders to the other.

Dow Theory is all about confirmations. What happens in one index should occur for the other index. Without confirmation, the theory says, then all bets are off in terms of the preceding direction of the index. Yesterday's action in the Dow Industrials was impressive, with the index hitting a brand new high since the March 9, 2009 low. Not to be outdone, the Transports were in a mood to go to new highs as well. As a critic of the markets and one who practices Dow Theory, I feel that the new highs are not completely to my liking.

First, let's review a little about what Dow Theory has done for us lately. From a literal and practical perspective, Dow Theory has definitely pointed the way to the increase in the market since June 23rd and possibly since my March 20, 2009 posting. So far, the March 20th article has been 100% accurate about the direction and extent of this market move upward. It is worth rereading that article to glean the nuances about Dow Theory that is seldom found anywhere else. However, attention to the details of the changes in the Transports and Industrials on March 9th made it possible for me to feel confident about my research recommendation of March 10th.

Below is my list of the top ten dividend-paying stocks to consider for purchase. Keep in mind that these stocks are not the best, neither are they the greatest companies in the U.S. However, the companies listed below have a proven track record of increasing their dividend over an extended period of time. Dividend increases are the best reflection of management's commitment to the shareholder while attempting to grow the company or increase cashflow.

As I attempt to gather as much information on Northwest Natural Gas (NWN) before deciding to actually buy NWN, I found one bit of information that was almost astounding. As I have mentioned before, NWN has increased its dividend every year for 53 years in a row. I have also talked about the fact that NWN will probably do everything in its power to maintain that dividend increasing history. So it is no surprise that the company announced on October 1, 2009 that will be increasing the dividend for the 54th year in a row.

In today's research recommendation of NWN, I will cover the issue of cyclicality, the Coppock Curve, natural gas prices, and Dow's theory as it relates to the stock. I have compiled this information as I consider buying NWN. It is hoped that you thoroughly review NWN from all angles before committing any money to this accomplished Dividend Achiever.

Today's altimeter is on Northwest Natural Gas (NWN), and there is a lot to appreciate when we exam the pattern that has been established so far. NWN has increased its dividend for 53 years in a row. With such a history of dividend increases, I think NWN will do everything it can to avoid cutting or leaving the dividend the same. At the price of $42.29, NWN is within 16% of the 52-week low.

In my blog posting on July 3, 2009 titled "ETF: Mediocrity with No Pretense of Value," I said:

"The structure of a scheme like this [ETFs] only works when the market continues higher or new money floods in."

On September 10th, we got a renewal of the Dow Theory bull signal when the Dow Industrials (DIA) and Dow Transports (IYT) both went to a new high since the low of March 9th. Remember, the fact that both indexes turned around from the low of March 9th did not mean we were in a bull market. Instead, the simultaneous move above the June 12th and May 6th high for the Industrials and Transports gave us the bull market indication according to Dow's Theory.

In order for any bull market to get initiated we need a market bottoming process to take place. The best illustrated example of the bottoming process is represented in my May 15, 2009 article representing the period from April 1974 to March 1975. However, I do show a less dramatic example in my July 24, 2009 article representing the period July 2008 to July 2009.

I watch with subsumed glee as Yahoo Finance includes a price quote for gold in the Market Summary section on their home page. After all the financial turmoil that we've been through since the introduction of the internet, when did Yahoo Finance realize that a gold quote was necessary? The obvious answer is, "When the public demands it."

Well, when the public finally demands the price quote of gold on their finance homepage, it is probably too late to participate in gold on a level that could be considered meaningful. After all, at nearly $1000 an ounce, there isn't going to be a stock split in the price of gold. Or is there? (I've been pondering this possibility lately) In any event, gold is fast becoming an expensive asset in a world full of correspondingly deflating alternative "assets." What to do? What to do? Get out there and do your research on silver!

In my article titled "Delisting of GSEs Looms Large" published on February 21, 2009, I discussed the fact that as Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) remained under $1, the prospects were that we'd either see the companies delisted from the NYSE or that the price would skyrocket. Not long after writing the article, the stocks of FNM and FRE fell as low as $0.35 on March 9th. In that February article, I said the following:

Look for a boosting of the share price to ridiculous levels (anything above $1) or go literally to zero in the next delisting notification process.

In reading The Stock Market Barometer by William Peter Hamilton, I find that there is significant contribution to the topic of Dow Theory. It is Hamilton’s book that led to the even better The Dow Theory and Dow’s Theory Applied to Business and Banking by Robert Rhea. One area of contention is my belief that Charles H. Dow was absolutely right about double tops and double bottoms.

Hamilton, in reference to double tops and double bottoms, writes (page 32.):

"Too much too soon." Those are the words of E.S.C. Coppock in describing the emotional state of the uninitiated investors response to the ups and downs of the stock market. The purpose of the Coppock Curve is to measure the emotional overreaction to the movement of the stock market.

Mr. Coppock observed that investors tend to ignore the fact that earnings are stable or rising and instead sell off a stock which is thought to be in trouble. Therefore, the monthly averaging of an index like the Dow Jones Industrials allows for better clarification of the what the price action is telling us.

As an investor who has to take responsibility for my actions, I seek out as much information as I can. Although I am willing to take in as much information as possible, I attempt to discern quality from the junk, critically analyze the information and questioning my assumption along with the author that I’m reading.

For this reason it did not go unnoticed when I read the October 16, 2008 New York Times op-ed piece written by Warren Buffett titled “Buy American. I Am.”