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  • Mortgage REITs see more gains as averages slide [View news story]
    Its about time mREITs start a rebound. The 3.5 Fannie Mae mortgage is trading at 103-16. It hasn't been that high since the end of May. BV for the beginning of Q4 should be reported as higher during the Q3 earnings reports to boost investor sentiment.
    Oct 9 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Projected To Yield 22.3% Based On October Dividend [View article]
    .9916 announced, Nicely done! - I think the professor should reassess his estimations based on your system. It seems the end of august allocations are more spot on.
    Oct 7 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust declares $0.27 dividend [View news story]
    Bought @ 7.23 today. a 21 cent drop is as good as a secondary would have been. This recent mREIT downturn has no teeth. NYMT is fine. 10 year treasury began the quarter at 2.55 and ended at 2.50 = good quarter for NYMT. Secondary less likely, but still possible. Just had to pull the trigger early on a day like this.
    Sep 30 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust declares $0.27 dividend [View news story]
    Historical secondary information:
    April 2nd 2014 secondary 13 million shares. Ex dividend 20th March. 10 business days from ex dividend
    Jan 7th 2014 secondary 10 million shares. Ex dividend 18th Dec. 15 business days from ex dividend
    April 30th 2013 secondary 13.6 million shares. Ex dividend 26th Mar. 26 business days from ex dividend
    Oct 3rd 2012 secondary 13.5 million shares. Ex dividend 26th Sept. 6 business days from ex dividend.
    Aug 16th 2012 secondary 10 million shares. Ex dividend 21st June. 41 business days after ex dividend.

    So October 10th is just a date I've set as a time to consider buying if there is no secondary by then. Of course secondaries are dependent on how much above book value they are, if NYMT has well laid plans on where to put the money, and the economic environment. It could very well not happen. Usually there is a drop after ex dividend that is greater than the dividend, which makes it a better deal than getting in before ex dividend. October 10th might be a good time to get in after a post ex dividend drop. interest rates movements have a sway on all of this, so keep an eye on them as well. NYMT may drop with a big jump in the 10 year yield, which I think would be a good time to buy because they seem to weather the yield swings well in both book value and dividend.
    Sep 19 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust declares $0.27 dividend [View news story]
    Sometime before October 10th and after ex dividend day. The company needs time to earn the dividend payout for Q4 on the new shares they create (by investing the new money and getting a return on it) and so its more likely soon after ex dividend day. Also a quick historical look showed its likely within about 3 weeks after ex dividend day. It might not happen this go around, but they have regularly done them and I'm waiting for that buy point too.
    Sep 19 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust declares $0.27 dividend [View news story]
    Well, the dividend raise didn't happen, but I'm still thinking the secondary might happen by the 10th of October.
    Sep 19 12:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is What Best-In-Breed Looks Like [View article]
    That was in stock price, not book value. My book value history reads:
    Dec 2012 $6.50
    Mar 2013 $6.55
    Jun 2013 $6.25
    Sep 2013 $6.32
    Dec 2013 $6.33
    Mar 2014 $6.48
    Jun 2014 $6.83

    The drop in price was realized to be an investor sentiment error when they reported their book value numbers. The other mREITs reported a substantial drop in book value and it was thought NYMT would follow suit, but NYMT pulled through mostly unscathed, and that's one reason its price to book is so high now. That and its stable dividend when the others cut their dividends.
    Sep 12 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is What Best-In-Breed Looks Like [View article]
    This has been my favorite mREIT recently because it weathered the 2013 taper tantrum so well compared to other mREITs. My only problem is whether to increase my holdings now before they announce the dividend and possible dividend increase, or after the ex dividend by a few weeks to see if they do a secondary. Only way to go was half in now and half a few weeks after the ex dividend or after the secondary.
    Im not so worried about NYMT if rates go up as anticipated in 2015, they did fine in 2013. With all that CMBS, it should be fine for them. Management seems to have learned their lesson from 2007-2009 and decided to be a stable, slow growing but high yielding mREIT. The only mREIT I don't have to worry much about. Thanks for the article.
    Sep 11 11:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Short RGR [View instapost]
    I think the midterm election and especially the next presidential election in 2016 will be telling for the gun industry. Its all about people buying guns they think will be banned in the future. If republicans win the senate and then the presidency, gun prices should go down a lot, along with demand.
    Aug 29 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why I'm Staying Fairly Bullish On Shares Of New York Mortgage Trust [View article]
    Decided to do a half in today (bought at 7.93$), half after ex dividend (and possible secondary, I think a 2 week wait after ex dividend will flush out if that's going to happen or not) Its been making higher lows for a year and I think that trend will continue, plus a dividend increase would send shares higher, but I cant ignore that significant drops happen in this stock routinely after ex dividend day.
    Aug 29 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why I'm Staying Fairly Bullish On Shares Of New York Mortgage Trust [View article]
    Im waiting for the next ex dividend date and possible subsequent drop to buy more, although if it gets to $7.75 before then I will likely get in there. I dont think that NYMT will trade that high above book value, its seen as a mortgage REIT and it wont get that far ahead of its competitors even if its the best of the bunch. Certainly would be great for secondaries, but I just dont see it hitting 10$ anytime in the next 2-3 years. As for a dividend raise to .30 or even .33, I think thats possible within the year with core earnings being .34 last quarter and things staying stable in the interest rate world so far this quarter.
    Aug 28 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Projected To Pay September Monthly Dividend Of $0.0762, For 21.9% Yield [View article]
    NRF did a reverse split on July 1st and spun off NSAM. 50 cents is the dividend on NRF. My guess is MORL did not keep NSAM because it doesn't fit the criteria of the businesses in the index. Im guessing MORL bought NRF with the proceeds to keep the allocation to NRF the same. So the NRF portion of MORL just doubled its dividend essentially.
    Aug 19 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital Turned In A Huge Total Economic Return For Q2. Any Problems? [View article]
    I stayed with WMC after their disastrous Q1 results that came in part from diversifying their portfolio and from being overhedged in a lowering rate environment. I had faith in management that this would be a one quarter problem as they diversified and that they still were competent enough to correct themselves. That paid off for me with this Q2 report being so good. Lets hope this kind of news continues.
    Aug 8 02:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Is A 'Too Good To Be True' Investment [View article]
    I expect the yield to hold as long as the mREITs in the index hold their dividends the same. I think those dividends are dependent on interest rates and their movements. If the interest rates stay stable or move slowly, I think the long term investor in MORL will relatively quickly earn their initial investment back from the massive dividends paid. The rebalancing that MORL does monthly to keep its allocations to the various stocks at their targets doesn't worry me much. As I have watched MORL, it tends to track the movement of the underlying stocks fairly well. There is not a huge discrepancy from the monthly compounding, and as UBS states, it can actually work in your favor just as easily as against it. The only sure thing weighing down the stock is the small fee that is paid to run MORL. Thanks for bringing this rebalancing risk up, I need to understand it better, but I dont think I'd be satisfied unless I saw how UBS does this every month. Im not with you on thinking that because of this compounding risk, MORL "will not recover" from a downturn. It has already somewhat recovered from a downturn and can do it again. The large dividend payment makes recovering your money a shorter wait. I bought before the downturn last year and have gone positive again on the investment from the stock price recovery and dividends paid. Im much more concerned with interest rate movements and how they effect the book value and dividend payments of the index constituents than I am about rebalancing(compounding) risk.
    Jul 20 02:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Is A 'Too Good To Be True' Investment [View article]
    And after the huge selloff MORL recovered from a $16.12 low to 22$ a share. MORL can recover from selloffs if the underlying stocks in the index recover.
    Jul 18 04:12 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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