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  • MORL Projected To Pay September Monthly Dividend Of $0.0762, For 21.9% Yield [View article]
    NRF did a reverse split on July 1st and spun off NSAM. 50 cents is the dividend on NRF. My guess is MORL did not keep NSAM because it doesn't fit the criteria of the businesses in the index. Im guessing MORL bought NRF with the proceeds to keep the allocation to NRF the same. So the NRF portion of MORL just doubled its dividend essentially.
    Aug 19 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital Turned In A Huge Total Economic Return For Q2. Any Problems? [View article]
    I stayed with WMC after their disastrous Q1 results that came in part from diversifying their portfolio and from being overhedged in a lowering rate environment. I had faith in management that this would be a one quarter problem as they diversified and that they still were competent enough to correct themselves. That paid off for me with this Q2 report being so good. Lets hope this kind of news continues.
    Aug 8 02:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Is A 'Too Good To Be True' Investment [View article]
    I expect the yield to hold as long as the mREITs in the index hold their dividends the same. I think those dividends are dependent on interest rates and their movements. If the interest rates stay stable or move slowly, I think the long term investor in MORL will relatively quickly earn their initial investment back from the massive dividends paid. The rebalancing that MORL does monthly to keep its allocations to the various stocks at their targets doesn't worry me much. As I have watched MORL, it tends to track the movement of the underlying stocks fairly well. There is not a huge discrepancy from the monthly compounding, and as UBS states, it can actually work in your favor just as easily as against it. The only sure thing weighing down the stock is the small fee that is paid to run MORL. Thanks for bringing this rebalancing risk up, I need to understand it better, but I dont think I'd be satisfied unless I saw how UBS does this every month. Im not with you on thinking that because of this compounding risk, MORL "will not recover" from a downturn. It has already somewhat recovered from a downturn and can do it again. The large dividend payment makes recovering your money a shorter wait. I bought before the downturn last year and have gone positive again on the investment from the stock price recovery and dividends paid. Im much more concerned with interest rate movements and how they effect the book value and dividend payments of the index constituents than I am about rebalancing(compounding) risk.
    Jul 20 02:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Is A 'Too Good To Be True' Investment [View article]
    And after the huge selloff MORL recovered from a $16.12 low to 22$ a share. MORL can recover from selloffs if the underlying stocks in the index recover.
    Jul 18 04:12 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL's July Dividend Projected To Increase Significantly - Yield To Be 24.5% On A Monthly Compounded Basis [View article]
    What about NRZ's special dividend of .075? That will raise the dividend paid by MORL in July as well.
    Jun 23 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Reinvestment Plans For Mortgage REITs [View article]
    Certainly makes sense to have it in a retirement account, some need to access the money before retirement though. I mentioned the tax advantages of retirement accounts in the article.
    Jun 5 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Reinvestment Plans For Mortgage REITs [View article]
    My broker - Tradeking - attempts to, but I've had to correct some mistakes they have made the last few years. Never been audited, so I don't know if "this is what my broker said" works when there are errors. Cost basis gets complicated when there are a lot of DRIP purchases, and my confidence in tradeking is not high enough to just leave it to them to calculate.
    Jun 5 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Reinvestment Plans For Mortgage REITs [View article]
    I think MORL will return more over time than O, but with a lot more worry.
    Jun 5 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 14%+ Dividend Payers Armour Residential And New York Mortgage Show Vastly Different Results [View article]
    Going forward in the short term, ARR might be a good buy, but I wouldn't trust them during some interest rate swings like I would NYMT. If you are going into ARR, get in and get out, but with NYMT, its a more comfortable long position to stay with and DRIP.
    May 16 12:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 14%+ Dividend Payers Armour Residential And New York Mortgage Show Vastly Different Results [View article]
    "as a long term investment NYMT does appear to be a good investment." I totally agree, I wouldn't stay in ARR because their management has vastly underperformed compared to NYMT over the long term and interest rate swings. NYMT has price stability and dividend stability that ARR cannot match. A look at the two year charts you posted and the dividend histories tells this story. NYMT has paid a stable dividend over two years while ARR has vastly lowered theirs. If you bought ARR at 7$ a share a little over a year ago, your yield is now about 8.5%, but if you bought NYMT at 7$ a share a little over a year ago, your yield is 15.4% and your stock price has increased instead of dropping 40% like ARR. Long NYMT and looking for that price dip to pick up more. Id love to get in under 7$ again, but might have to settle for 7.50$.
    May 16 11:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Armour Residential: Long Or Short? [View article]
    ARR is the worst of the mREITs, has been a long time. At least their core earnings cover their dividend, although just barely. NLY didnt do that last quarter (.23 core earnings vs .30 dividend). I expect mREITs to increase book value when MBS prices go up, which ARR failed to do. WMC notably was a failure in that regard as well. They both were over hedged in a lowering rate environment and I think that was the main contributor to their book value underperformance relative to their peers.
    I think people invest in ARR because it pays monthly and because it releases a monthy powerpoint that adds increased transparency, but those things dont make up for uncompetitive management.
    NYMT has around the same dividend yield, but with management that is arguably the best among the mREITs, an increasing book value, and core earnngs that cover the dividend and then some (.29 core earnings vs .27 dividend). It also has maintained its dividend during the downturn of 2013 while most of the other mREITs were dropping their dividends. Easy choice for those wishing to go long a single mREIT.
    May 13 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset -3.4% as earnings dive amid strategy shift [View news story]
    Their hedging strategy was contrary to what happened in Q1. They suffered as a result. They still have negative duration and see rates going up.
    May 8 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs: Sell In May? Not If Spreads Hold Up [View article]
    After a review of this article, I definitely underestimated the impact on BV that QE3 tapering announcements would have. Its taken a full year for the spreads to start to tick up, but most companies are playing it very defensively still after last May-June share price and book value falling off a cliff. The dividends wont recover quickly because of the lower leverage and increased hedging. Im glad I warned to put in a stop order, hopefully that saved some people the hurt of last May-June. without crunching numbers, its easy to say selling at the first of May last year would have been a great move, along with buying in November. As for this May? The fear is still BV hits if rates rise, but so far this year they have been in a range of 2.6-2.8% on the ten year. Im staying in, if a stock market sell-off happens, it will likely keep rates low and help mREITs book value stability and dividend stability. If rates slowly tick up, most mREITs are positioned well. If they rise quickly, get out of the way - mREITs will fall again, just not as much as before.
    Apr 26 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider Buying Western Asset Mortgage Capital Now [View article]
    Previous performance is no indication of future performance. Its all about interest rates here, and this year they have been stable between 2.6 and 2.8 on the ten year. Buy low, sell high. But I understand your sentiment if you don't buy stocks that have had a rough patch. There are plenty of people in JNJ or PG for good reason, but their compounded returns will take considerably longer to match the performance of a mREIT who pays out 10%+ in dividends yearly. There is no guarantee JNJ or PG will not have a -30% year at some point as well.
    Apr 21 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider Buying Western Asset Mortgage Capital Now [View article]
    http://bit.ly/YTtqyC Take at look at their investor relations page, they reported a Book value of 15.18 on Feb 28th when they had reported 15.27 for Dec 31st. MBS values went from 99-11 on Dec 31st to 101-06 on Feb 28th (3.5 FNMA fixed rate 30 year) in that time frame. WMC has been reporting a book value with each dividend announcement, which you can find on their investor relations page.
    Apr 21 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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