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  • Recent Buy: Realty Income Corporation [View article]
    Just bought $WPC today. I got a 5.64% yield that has been increasing every quarter. A little more risky than $O because if its leverage and European exposure, but its price compared to its valuation is much more favorable for going long. I bought $O back when it was yielding 5% and hold much more $O than $WPC, but buying $WPC over $O today was a no-brainer.
    Mar 27, 2015. 04:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dovish Fed Statement Puts The Kibosh On 18% Dividend Western Asset Mortgage's Strategy [View article]
    Did some bad math, the book value as calculated should be $14.68. which would be a loss of 26 cents on the Q4 (Dec 31st) book value. Still should be a positive total return (Book value change + dividend) quarter.
    Mar 26, 2015. 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital declares $0.67 dividend [View news story]
    Thanks for catching that. divided by 3 and never doubled it.
    Mar 26, 2015. 06:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dovish Fed Statement Puts The Kibosh On 18% Dividend Western Asset Mortgage's Strategy [View article]
    WMC has had a tendency to move a lot of their balance sheet around during the quarter and throw off predictions based on the holdings as of the last earnings report. I would guess they took some hedges down based on their announced book value. Which I take to be about $14.91 if you subtract out 2/3 of the announced dividend to give you a good estimate of their actual Feb 28th book value. Using this calculation, they only lost 3 cents on book value up until Feb 28th in Q1, a lot better than expected.
    Mar 26, 2015. 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital declares $0.67 dividend [View news story]
    When I see the 15.13 book value announced, I subtract 2/3 of the dividend amount announced to get an idea of what the book value on Feb 28th would be with the amount of the dividend they earned in the quarter up till then subtracted. 15.13 - (.67 x (2/3)) = 14.91, a three cent drop from the 14.94 book value of Dec 31st. Im glad of the fairly stable book value and a little disappointed in the dividend cut as they earned .87 a share in Q4 2014.
    Mar 26, 2015. 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Was Simply Wrong About American Capital Mortgage [View article]
    those numbers above are per share and are rounded to nearest 10 cents.
    Mar 24, 2015. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Was Simply Wrong About American Capital Mortgage [View article]
    MTGE has about a 1.50$ in tax loss carryover ( roughly 2.80$ in losses on MBS and 1.30$ gain in hedges)- from 2013 to pay down by the end of 2018. I think this had a factor in their decision to cut the dividend - they want to use dollar roll income to pay that down. I sold my position in MTGE because there are better options ( I think MLPL is undervalued , and has a history of dividend raises instead of cuts. NYMT or NRZ are better options in somewhat the same sector as MTGE).
    Mar 24, 2015. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust declares $0.27 dividend [View news story]
    Just keep those 27 cents coming NYMT! Id be even happier with a special dividend or a dividend raise with all your surplus income, but 27 cents every quarter will always be appreciated.
    Mar 18, 2015. 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL March Dividend To Bring Yield To 24%, Yellen Holds The Key To The Future [View article]
    @ KRT - Thanks for cluing me into this indicative value thing. I read the prospectus again and found the Yahoo ticker for UBS's indicative value that they update every 15 seconds - ^MORL-IV. It only had 5 days worth of history on it, and comparing it to MORL's stock price, it is correlated, but they are slightly different prices (MORL was usually slightly below ^MORL-IV).
    The prospectus states "The market value of the Securities is influenced by many unpredictable factors, some of which may cause the price at which the Securities can be sold in the secondary market to vary substantially from the intraday indicative value that is calculated and disseminated throughout trading hours."
    Without historical prices on MORL's indicative value number, its hard to assess how much MORL's stock price has deviated from it, but if it hasn't deviated much during its history, then a run up in stock price from the announcement of a big dividend from MORL and from DRIP purchases of MORL on the pay date wouldn't be reasons this proposed strategy would work. It would be useful to watch these two tickers on the morning of the announcement of MORL's dividend and on the DRIP day to see if they do affect how MORL trades relative to its indicative value. Bloomberg is supposed to have a ticker for MORL's indicative value (MORLIV <INDEX>), but I couldn't find it using a search.
    However, the prices of the underlying securities in the index do affect the price of MORLs indicative value. looking at NLY, it goes ex dividend before you would buy MORL using this strategy and pays after you would sell. (AGNC and STWD, which combined make up more of the index than NLY, do have their payout dates during the time you would hold MORL using this strategy)
    Perhaps you are just getting the low price from all the selling that sometimes follows mREITs going ex dividend, and you are getting the run up in price from the purchasing that happens after the selling. This is what you indicated may be the strategy. It's also in a time frame of relative rate stability and lack of uncertainty (between a jobs number and the FOMC meeting).
    Mar 16, 2015. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL March Dividend To Bring Yield To 24%, Yellen Holds The Key To The Future [View article]
    @ Bert,
    The 2$ loss of the previous post was for buying the Friday before ex-dividend and selling the Friday after the payout date. For the $5.09 gain I picked the lowest buy price at closing before ex dividend and the highest sell price at closing after ex dividend, but all within the same month.
    Here is the buy and sell info. All prices are closing prices of that day.
    2013
    Buy Jan 2nd @ 25.91, sell Jan 31st @ 27.93. Gain of 2.02
    Buy April 3rd @ 30.60, sell April 30th @ 31.18. Gain of .58
    Buy July 5th @ 19.69, sell July 23rd @ 20.58. Gain of .89
    Buy Oct 8th @ 19.25, sell Oct 25th @ 20.64. Gain of 1.39
    2014
    Buy Jan 2nd @ 19.23, sell Jan 23rd @ 20.10. Gain of .87
    Buy April 3rd @ 21.86, sell April 28th @ 21.73. Loss of .13
    Buy July 7th @ 22.61, sell July 28th @ 22.29. Loss of .32
    Buy Oct 2nd @ 20.23, sell Oct 31st @ 21.09. Gain of .86
    2015
    Buy Jan 5th @ 21.44, sell Jan 26th @ 20.37. Loss of 1.07

    total: $5.09 gain + $9.264 dividend = $14.354 gain per share.

    They seem to skew toward the 2nd or 3rd of the month for the buy date and the 28-31st of the month for the sell date.
    You could get even better if you chose the low buy price intraday and high sell price intraday. But really, who can time the market that well? Not me.

    @KRT Thanks for the input, your advice is sound, but I am not confident in mREIT stock price increases during a rising rate environment (if that happens). However, a 5 year time frame should give mREITs time to figure out how to grow or at least stabilize book value as rates rise. I am confident they will always try to pay a big dividend, and avoiding stock price drops from rate swings makes this buy for the dividend strategy appealing. It could have avoided all my unrealized losses from 2013 in MORL that I am still barely above even on when you factor in the dividends paid from staying long.
    It must have been difficult to try to see a dip from the ex dividend of one of the stocks in MORL's price, even if it was their major holding NLY. Did you watch for a day when a significant portion of the index went ex dividend at the same time? When you say MORL accounts for the drop once at ex dividend day, who exactly is the person or entity holding up MORL's price until then? Its index constituents are down from ex-dividend and anyone tracking MORL's price relative to them to keep abreast of MORLs value would have to keep adding back in the expected dividend payments until MORL's ex-dividend day. If the exchanges don't drop MORL's price on the ex-dividend morning of any of its underlying stocks, investors still might drop their value for MORL in their analysis and the price would suffer.
    This double ex dividend drop is the major theory behind this strategy, and if it isn't happening, then something else may be at work here to make this work so well historically. Perhaps the other reasons I outlined above are sufficient to make it a good time to buy and sell MORL. The period would be one of relative rate stability and lack of uncertainty, and you get a run up for the big dividend and a DRIP boost to the share price.
    Mar 14, 2015. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL March Dividend To Bring Yield To 24%, Yellen Holds The Key To The Future [View article]
    There are usually better days to buy and sell than on those Friday's, if you time it right. Based on closing prices, you could have gotten a 5.09$ price increase plus the dividends, but who's good at timing the market? Limit orders might not catch the best days, but could possible get you a better price than going with your gut or staying robotic about the days to buy and sell.
    The reasoning for this strategy seems clear to me. The underlying stocks in the index already went ex dividend the month previous to the big dividend by MORL, and MORL's share price should have already been reduced by that effect come the first week of the month. That first Friday of the month is usually before MORL has announced its dividend amount, so you don't have any run up from the big dividend announcement. It is also the day the jobs number comes out (before market open), so you don't have the uncertainty from that to worry about if you buy that day. MORL drops by its dividend amount on the morning of ex dividend day, but this effect should be short lived as MORL has already dropped from the ex dividends of its underlying components previously. Waiting for the payout day to pass allows all those who reinvest the dividends to drive up the share price, as well as letting MORL recover from its double ex dividend drop. Selling the Friday of payout week makes sense as, at least this year, the FOMC meetings are the following Tuesday and you avoid some the uncertainty of those.
    The risks of the strategy are a share price that doesn't recover because of rate movements against the perceived strategies of mREITs. (MORL is fairly evenly split between stocks that benefit and stocks that are harmed by rising rates. The same for lowering rates) Also there is the risk that this is just a historical phenomenon that will not continue in the future.
    And the risk that because we just told everyone about it, the wind is out of its sails unless you back up your buy and sell dates to get in and out before everyone else does :)
    P.S. - the jobs number comes out on Friday, April 3rd - the day the stock market is closed. MORL announced its dividend April 2nd at 10 am eastern last year.
    Mar 13, 2015. 05:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL March Dividend To Bring Yield To 24%, Yellen Holds The Key To The Future [View article]
    I looked at this strategy a few ways, and the way that made the most money was to buy the Friday closing price before the week MORL went ex dividend, and sell the Friday closing price of the week MORL paid the dividend. It came out to a loss of 2.02 on the stock trades and a gain of 9.264 on the dividend for a gain of $7.244 per share.
    @ Bert, your buy prices before the ex dividend are actually the prices of the Friday after it went ex dividend so you wouldn't pick up the dividend buying then.

    Here are the numbers:
    Buy 4 Jan 2013 @ 26.88, sell 25 Jan 2013 @ 27.42 +.54, div 1.3195
    Buy 5 Apr 2013 @ 31.61, sell 26 Apr 2013 @ 31.11 - 1.50 div 1.3213
    Buy 5 July 2013 @ 19.69, sell 26 July 2013 @19.63 - .06 div 1.1045
    Buy 4 Oct 2013 @19.82, sell 25 Oct 2013 @ 20.64 +.82 div .7938
    Buy 3 Jan 2014 @ 19.57, sell 24 Jan 2014 @ 19.86 +.29 div .8072
    Buy 4 Apr 2014 @ 21.96, sell 25 Apr 2014 @ 21.54 - .42 div 1.0129
    Buy 4 July 2014 @ 22.66, sell 25 July 2014 @ 22.11 -.55 div .9642
    Buy 3 Oct 2014 @ 20.41, sell 24 Oct 2014 @ 20.76 +.35 div .9916
    Buy 2 Jan 2015 @ 21.58, sell 23 Jan 2015 @ 20.09 -1.49 div .9490

    total price loss 2.02, dividend paid 9.264
    Mar 11, 2015. 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet The New NCT: CDO Recoveries, Golf And A 100%+ Upside Potential Over The Next 2 Years With A 10.6% Yield While You Wait [View article]
    It sounded like management didn't have a very clear direction in the earnings call other than getting into more leisure type investments. If it wasn't for their past history of outperforming, I would be more worried about it. They have found some great sectors to get into recently.
    Mar 5, 2015. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Building A $100,000 High-Yield Income Portfolio From Scratch, Adding Position 2: New Residential Investment Corp. [View article]
    Also NYMT. Its above book value, but seems to be impervious to rate swings. It has dips in price that make buying opportunities. High stable dividend with recent high earnings making the potential for a dividend raise or special dividend. MREIT category without the rate worries.
    Mar 2, 2015. 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Building A $100,000 High-Yield Income Portfolio From Scratch, Adding Position 2: New Residential Investment Corp. [View article]
    MLPL? Not an individual company, but its dividend is high and rising, its in the beaten up MLP sector, and is down from its high.
    Mar 2, 2015. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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