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  • 19% Dividend Western Asset Mortgage Capital Is In Line For A Big Increase In Book Value In Q4 [View article]
    I checked with WMC investor relations. Response was - "The estimated book value as of November 30, 2014 takes into account all of the components of our income and accrued expenses from October 1 through November 30. The $0.70 dividend becomes a liability (dividend payable)
    on our balance sheet at the time of the announcement and therefore is not factored into the estimated book value as of November 30."
    Well, since the announcement is after November 30th, seems the book value as of Nov 30th includes income but does not subtract the 70 cent dividend. That got subtracted from book value today, the day of the announcement. Best of luck on your investments! 
    Dec 18, 2014. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 19% Dividend Western Asset Mortgage Capital Is In Line For A Big Increase In Book Value In Q4 [View article]
    So, when in the announcement they say that "the estimated book value is as of November 30, 2014 and does not include the dividend announced today." - you think they didn't include their income in Q4 (from net interest spread and drop income) until Nov 30th as part of that book value? I would think they would report all the book value they could. I've always taken that statement to mean that the reported book value includes the income they have received until that point in the quarter. I guess we have to agree to disagree on this point. I can try emailing investor relations, its a point worth getting to the bottom of.
    Dec 18, 2014. 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital: Dividend Coming From Best-In-Class mREIT [View article]
    What do you think about their book value? They announced BV of 15.17 and dividend of .70. That's a drop in BV of 9 cents from Sept 30th and book value will drop .70 more on Dec 24th. Looks like a book value loss this quarter despite the gain in MBS values we have seen. Long WMC but dissapointed in management for not growing BV. Maybe they bought a lot more CMBS or something this quarter, but likely they are just overhedged. We will find out when they report Q4 earnings I suppose.
    Dec 18, 2014. 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital declares $0.70 dividend [View news story]
    The dividend news was good (kept it the same at .70) its the Book Value of 15.17 as of Nov 30th (.09 loss from Sept 30th) that has me unhappy with management. They lost book value again when MBS values were going up, looks like they were over-hedged or rebalanced too much.
    Dec 18, 2014. 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 19% Dividend Western Asset Mortgage Capital Is In Line For A Big Increase In Book Value In Q4 [View article]
    WMC reported BV of 15.17 as of Nov 30th. 9 cent loss from Sept 30th. Quick look shows the 10 year treasury and the 3.5% FNMA MBS values havn't changed much since Nov 30th. Subtract the .70 cent dividend that gets factored in Dec 24th and your left with 14.47 in book value. Looks like they lost on hedges what they gained on MBS.
    Dec 18, 2014. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 19% Dividend Western Asset Mortgage Capital Is In Line For A Big Increase In Book Value In Q4 [View article]
    Thanks for the article and analysis on WMC. WMC Management had a very bad Q1 2014 earnings report. Their hedges lost them a profitable quarter because they had too much money tied up in them during a lowering interest rate environment. Other mREITs fared better in Q1 because of less hedging. Q2 2014 however was great for WMC with large book value increases in a lowering rate environment.
    WMC's balance sheet can change so much in one quarter that it makes it harder to assume that just because the interest rates lowered and MBS values went up, that their book value went up.
    However, I agree that they likely didn't get spooked this quarter as they did in Q1 about rising rates and likely didn't increase their hedges substantially, and therefore will likely see a book value increase. Long WMC.
    Dec 17, 2014. 04:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Dividend Hike From Best-In-Breed New York Mortgage Trust Is Inevitable [View article]
    Crunching some numbers on the dividend. With all the secondaries this year, I calculated that they have earned 20.3 cents per share over their dividend payments as of Q3 earnings report, but factoring in the secondary shares issued in November.
    Q1 .02 over dividend on 64.7 million shares - $1.294 million
    Q2 .07 over dividend on 77.7 million shares - $5.439 million
    Q3 .15 over dividend on 77.7 million shares - $11.655 million
    $18.388 million in earnings over dividend / 90.7 million shares =
    20.3 cents per share over dividend

    So they only have to earn about 7 cents per share this quarter to make their dividend payment they just announced. I had thought the late Q4 secondary would have taken out a large chunk of their accumulated earnings over the dividend in 2014, but this shows its really only a few cents it will hit into the earnings. I've heard it takes a full year for them to have to pay out their extra earnings in order to avoid the tax hit if they don't follow REIT 90% payout rules. Seems they might wait to see how 2015 fares before deciding on a special dividend, but I'm coming around to your special dividend hypothesis.
    Dec 15, 2014. 11:48 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust declares $0.27 dividend [View news story]
    Was down to 7.60 on Tuesday morning, It usually drops a bit more than the dividend in the few days after the ex-dividend day. Keep an eye out, you might get a good price, but I doubt it will be anywhere near NAV. News about interest rates rising could drop the price, but I doubt it will effect the book value of NYMT, their balance sheet is solid as we saw in spring 2013 when it held firm during the taper tantrum.
    Dec 12, 2014. 05:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust declares $0.27 dividend [View news story]
    Should go up Monday from this news. NYMT tends to move in waves recently, buy the dips!
    Dec 12, 2014. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust declares $0.27 dividend [View news story]
    NYMT, gotta love the stability of the payout. Might have seen an increase without that secondary they did recently, but it helped me get in at a lower price, so not complaining.
    Dec 12, 2014. 04:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting The Fed Is A Sure Way To Hear God Laugh. [View instapost]
    Ill see what the mREIT managers say in the next earnings call. They can increase their short term swaps to try and offset the short term rate increases. Ill also watch their repo financing metrics to see if they are going up. If the long term rates don't go up in tandem with short term rates, it is pretty much a worst case scenario for dividends. If long rates go up as well, then the BV will take a hit as their MBS will loose value. Then they may have to sell at a loss to buy new higher yielding MBS to maintain a decent spread to earn dividends with. Neither of those things sit well with me.
    The rate increase may be a small increase that wont go up quickly and mREITs can manage. The news of it though may be terrible just like the taper tantrum in spring of 2013. Then when tapering really hit, mREITs went up as long term rates went down. Thanks for posting, this got me thinking about my premise for staying long my mREITs. NYMT can manage it, but can WMC or NLY or AGNC?
    Dec 7, 2014. 12:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs slip as rate expectations ratchet higher [View news story]
    Q4 still shows positive growth in MBS values.
    Sept 30th 3.5 FNMA 102-08.
    Dec 5th 3.5 FNMA 103-22.
    We lost some value today, but not this quarter yet.
    Dec 5, 2014. 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 13.7% Dividend Payer New York Mortgage Trust Has Outperformed, But Has That Made It Riskier? [View article]
    I too trust management because of their past performance in the summer of 2013. No other mREIT held up their book value like they did. The balance sheet has proven resistant to interest rate swings. No guarantee of future performance, but its comforting to me. The stability of the book value and dividend initially drew me to this investment and is keeping me here. Wish you could get in at a good price, Urbannek, sorry to see you miss out on the last few dips.
    Nov 26, 2014. 11:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust: The Best Buying Opportunity Of The Quarter [View article]
    The difference between the offering price and their book value would be reflected in a book value increase. It wouldn't be counted as income, and if they did try to pay it in dividends, it would be return of capital.
    Nov 26, 2014. 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust: The Best Buying Opportunity Of The Quarter [View article]
    It popped to $7.86 at the end of the day, I think that's a good sign there are a lot of buyers that didn't want to miss out on this sale.
    Nov 21, 2014. 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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