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Dividend Math Guy  

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  • 'Krafting' Success For My Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    I am holding onto mine.

    Keep in mind that the $16.50 special dividend will effectively reduce the current price per share to $66.67 (based on the market closing price of $83.17 today), making the shares have a forward yield of 3.3%. Not bad.
    Mar 26, 2015. 01:21 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buh-Bye Wal-Mart, Hello Emerson Electric, Qualcomm And AbbVie [View article]
    I'm surprised that Conoco was ever considered to have a moat. They certainly don't have pricing power, even if they have the ability to weather price swings better than most E&P companies. I don't think M* uses the term "moat" in a strict "pricing power" sense.
    Mar 18, 2015. 12:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buh-Bye Wal-Mart, Hello Emerson Electric, Qualcomm And AbbVie [View article]
    >>>Jefferson Research, however, does only get a 14% accuracy rating on its WMB analysis<<<

    Assuming you are referring to their Starmine number, that's not what their 14% number means. What it means is that they are in the 14th percentile as far as their buy and sell calls on the stock go, that's it. It has nothing to do with the accuracy of their fundamental analysis.
    Mar 11, 2015. 11:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buh-Bye Wal-Mart, Hello Emerson Electric, Qualcomm And AbbVie [View article]
    I do like that WMT seems to do better in a recession. The last two dividend increases have been lackluster but then again so have their recent business performance metrics. They grew earnings and dividends much faster during the last recession, and it's likely they will again during the next one. I'm holding onto mine for that reason. It's nice to have a proper countercyclical play or two.
    Mar 11, 2015. 12:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buh-Bye Wal-Mart, Hello Emerson Electric, Qualcomm And AbbVie [View article]
    About EMR: I have never owned it or researched it, but its 5-year chart is pretty ugly. It's been especially ugly since Jan 2014. What has been the major driving factors behind these price changes?
    Mar 10, 2015. 12:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    >>>Math Guy: Your math is flawed. Read the article.<<<

    Actually their math that you originally reported is flawed. The 10-year compounded returns on 10-Year Treasury bonds were NOT 7.7%, 13.9%, and 40.75% for the decades of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s.

    They were 8.12%, 27.1%, and 69.4%. (Year-by-year source data here: (edit: SA is messing up the link. Google "historical sp500 returns" without the quotes and follow the stern.nyu.edu link)

    That compounds to a 132.79% total 30-year gain, or 2.857% annualized.

    I apologize if my using your flawed data in my post above misled anyone.

    Nevertheless, inflation (according to the CPI-U) was still slightly above 4% annually (on an annualized basis) for 1950-1981, so I don't know how they can say that "the real return for US Intermediate Government bonds was -0.1%."

    I've laid out my sources, so anyone can verify what I've written if they so desire.
    Mar 9, 2015. 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    That means that the total 30-year return was 72.65%, which annualizes to a 1.837% annual rate of return, which is lower than even the lowest coupon during that time and lost horribly to inflation (just over 4% annually during this time period, or a total of 228.3% over the whole period).

    The message is loud and clear: If you're going to buy bonds today, buy individual bonds and hold them to maturity. Don't touch bond funds.
    Mar 9, 2015. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Million-Dollar Retirement Portfolio: 6-Month Follow-Up [View article]
    I received it in a spinoff from KMB. I'm holding onto it for now.
    Mar 9, 2015. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    >>>However, what is the correct number? I have discovered that FAST Graphs and Morningstar are in stark disagreement about EPS. FAST Graphs has them increasing without interruption. M* has them declining in 2013 and 2014.<<<

    M*'s earnings are as-reported (GAAP). FG's earnings are operating earnings (non-GAAP).
    Mar 8, 2015. 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Overdue Major Stock Selloff Still Looms [View article]
    >>>Fundamenta... the S&P 500 (SPX) is trading at an exceedingly-expensive 25.9x earnings! That is the simple average of all 500 elite SPX component stocks' trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratios. <<<

    Which is NOT EQUAL to its actual price-to-earning ratio. You know, the actual price you pay per share versus the actual amount of earnings you get for it.

    Averages! They're so crazy!
    Mar 7, 2015. 02:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    >>> I would like to buy more Dividend Aristocrats, and will do so when they are at more reasonable valuations.<<<

    Why, if they are such slow and/or negative growers?

    >>>Given that the dollar is up 20%, foreign stocks are - as an entire asset class - 20% cheaper than usual just based on the rising US dollar alone. Many DGI investors love to dream about a 20% fall in PG, Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), or Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) to acquire more shares. Yet virtually none of these same investors are taking advantage of the massive sale on non-US income producing assets right now. Strange, right?<<<

    20% off doesn't mean terribly much when they now produce 20% less in dividend income precisely due to the currency difference. It does help a little because eventually currencies will swing back the other way, but who knows how long that will take. Europe is flirting with recession while the American economy keeps looking stronger and stronger.

    FWIW I have been using the most recent 4-5 months to build positions in some foreign stocks (at least I didn't start on them *before* they fell!) and financially sound US energy stocks.

    >>>I personally live in LatAm and have both business expertise and living expenses that are tied to South America. Thus, it makes sense for me to allocate heavily to LatAm companies that are trading at 5-year lows <<<

    Ah ha. Ah ha!
    Mar 7, 2015. 01:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million Dividend Results - Objectives [View article]
    >>> sometime in 2016 (probably late 2016) that the market will have a correction of 50% or more.<<<

    Will earnings also crash and be permanently impaired by 50% or more?
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accumulate AT&T Shares While No One Is Paying Attention [View article]
    >>> The company will pay largely through borrowing; the recent credit downgrade from A to BBB+ was a result of the spectrum deal.<<<

    BBB, not BBB+ (at least for Morningstar). That's a pretty big downgrade.
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Beefs Up Entry Barriers By Hiking Worker Pay [View article]
    >>>If increases in the minimum wage since the adoption of the Fair Labor Standards Act in 1938 truly fit an exponential curve going forward as they have in the past, we simply haven't seen anything yet. Real inflation-adjusted minimum wage increases over the next 75 years or so will be staggering, and only then will we see the frightening path of labor costs that Walmart has set.<<<

    No, if wages fit that exponential curve going forward, their growth rate will be below the rate of inflation. That means that the real inflation-adjusted minimum wage increases over the next however many years will not be staggering, they will be *negative*. The only person that's frightening for is the worker.
    Feb 24, 2015. 01:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend-Stingy Wal-Mart Was Already On Probation, So What Now? [View article]
    Hey, I've been buying energy heavily for the last 4 months. I'm almost at my desired allocation level.
    Feb 24, 2015. 01:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
403 Comments
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