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Dividend Math Guy  

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  • My Dividend Web Site Has Been Updated To Include Data Up To 2014 [View instapost]
    Thank you RAS! Your site is very helpful.
    Feb 12, 2015. 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney Earnings Analysis: By The Numbers [View article]
    It looks like a computer wrote this article.
    Feb 8, 2015. 01:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 By 10 Revisited: The Interaction Of Dividend Yield And Growth [View article]
    >>>So do you simply have: 2.93% yield + 3.63% fwd earnings = 6.56% (?)

    thanks. <<<


    At least that's the basic idea.

    It turns out to be pretty hard to hit 12 with this method, but in my opinion when you find companies that rate a 10 or higher (with >=3% yield) or 15 or higher (with >=1.5% yield) you stand a very good chance of making money.

    In reality I use a range, so for KO it would be 2.93% yield + 1.8% to 6% earnings growth = 4.19% to 8.93%. I use forward estimates from a number of sources and I have my own personal long-term forward estimate range (i.e., guess) that I combine to get my "Chowder number" range.
    Feb 6, 2015. 12:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million Dividend Results - Objectives [View article]
    >>>I think you have to subscribe to Morningstar in order to get the fair value numbers.<<<

    I get them for free (as well as free trades) from Merrill Edge.

    I get a ton of other free research from Fidelity.

    Between the two I can't really think of anything I lack access to other than ValueLine.
    Feb 5, 2015. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 By 10 Revisited: The Interaction Of Dividend Yield And Growth [View article]
    It is still correct to add the yield and the DGR, but I use a different figure for the DGR. Keep in mind that the DGR is meant to be a forward-looking figure. You want high current yield and high growth of that yield going forward.

    Instead of taking the historical DGR, I use the 5-year forward earnings growth rate estimate, with the idea that increasing the dividend at the rate of the earnings growth keeps the payout ratio constant.

    I shy away from using the historical DGR because it is often the result of an increasing payout ratio. Payout ratios cannot increase forever, so if you use the historical DGR as a proxy for future DGR you are likely to be disappointed.
    Feb 5, 2015. 01:21 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa Remains A Great Stock For Long-Term Investors [View article]
    >>>Apple is not going to build out a payment network or extend credit.<<<

    You don't think so? Apple could pull it off; practically noone else could. I think Apple is one of the very few credible threats to the credit card companies, so I own AAPL as a hedge against my investments in V and MA. Heck, AAPL could even buy V or MA.
    Feb 3, 2015. 02:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Value Investing: Have You Been Using The Wrong Quality Ratio? [View article]
    Thanks for the nice article.
    Jan 29, 2015. 01:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm beats estimates, but FY15 view light [View news story]
    I haven't read the transcript yet, but QCOM has $10 per share in cash and no debt, so now AH it's selling for like 11-12x this year's earnings ex cash. That seems pretty cheap.
    Jan 28, 2015. 06:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble's Latest Earnings Release And The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    Agreed. I'll consider it if it falls below 80 but I think there are better options out there at today's prices. My favorites right now are CVX, XOM, MA, T. Other potentially good buys right now include MCD, SBUX, PM, V, GOOG.
    Jan 27, 2015. 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Selling Guidelines For Self Directed Investors [View article]
    >>>Most people invest with best case scenario in mind. I invest with worst case scenario in mind and find the best way to fill the gaps.<<<

    This quote really resonated with me. I think that personal investing done right is ultimately not a game of dollars. Rather, it is a game of *time*.

    Essentially what you are doing by sticking to the DGI strategy instead of chasing the market and chasing growth is accepting the possibility that you may need to work a couple more years (maybe, not even necessarily), in exchange for higher certainty that you will reach your goals and for the extra security and protection against disaster along the way.

    I have done the math on my portfolio over and over again. By sticking to the DGI strategy I should be able to retire in 15-20 years. If I were to chase growth stocks or just buy the S&P 500 I might be able to do it in 13-17 years in the best case scenario, but I might also experience setbacks or fail completely. To me sticking with DGI is worth the tradeoff.
    Jan 13, 2015. 04:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Demonstration Of How Dividend Growth Investing Outperforms [View article]
    >>>Just for reference, my Dad started investing in solid blue chip stocks that paid dividends 70 years ago and kept investing until he retired at 58 and mom at 55.... <<<

    The longest tenure of a company on the CCC list is 60 years, so unless that data is incomplete that means that every single one of the investments your parents during their first 10 years of investing eventually ran into a dividend freeze or cut.

    I am trying to envision how I should manage my portfolio over the very long haul, and I would like to know how they managed these positions. Are you able to ask your mom about this?
    Dec 31, 2014. 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Demonstration Of How Dividend Growth Investing Outperforms [View article]
    >>>we created the Roth in April of 2008 with 5k and put in an additional 5k in January of every following year for a total of $30500. The account's now just a hair shy of 50k.<<<

    That would be a total of $35000 in contributions, so I assume that was just a typo there.

    And I'm sorry to report this, but if you'd put that money into SPY on those dates and clicked "reinvest dividends" you'd actually have $63,000 in that account right now. You can verify this in any number of ways - I used Morningstar's free portfolio tracker to do it. It took about 5 minutes to set up the portfolio and see the results.
    Dec 30, 2014. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T And 'Losing' To Inflation [View article]
    >>>Let's say you are given the chance to get $450 or a 25% chance of getting $300, 25% chance of getting $500, 25% chance of getting $700, 25% chance of getting $900? Would you choose the $450 or take the risk?<<<

    That depends. How much do I need?
    Dec 26, 2014. 07:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would You Do With A Million Dollars? [View article]
    Thanks for the info oslo. I'll definitely have to take that into consideration as I get closer to retirement.
    Dec 23, 2014. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's New! It's Nifty! It's The Dividend Growth 50! [View article]
    Much like the original nifty fifty, this portfolio was purchased without regard to valuation. However, unlike the old nifty fifty, many of these companies are selling at reasonable prices. At most the portfolio is somewhat overvalued, as opposed to the gross overvaluation of the nifty fifty of the past.
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment