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  • The Million-Dollar Retirement Portfolio: 1-Year Follow-Up [View article]
    I understand where you're coming from. In my defense, in this case my skin in the game is my credibility. I'm not going to make a bunch of different hypothetical portfolios and choose the one to present that does best or anything like that. I'm sticking with this one. In my mind I've only got one shot at this and I'm going to do my best to make it work.

    This article is about how I would invest if I were rich. My next article will be about how I actually invest, given that I am not yet rich.
    Jun 9, 2015. 10:37 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market [View article]
    And yet some people only shop during "going out of business" sales.
    Jun 9, 2015. 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa Is Just A Bit More Expensive Than I'd Like It To Be Right Now [View article]
    One often-overlooked aspect about Visa is that the company returns virtually all of its free cash flow to investors in the form of dividends+buybacks each year. Dividends are about 20% of that, and Visa has a good history of performing its buybacks during the lower channels of its price series. V is not unlike a tobacco company that returns 80% of free cash flow to investors each year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see V become the next MO in terms of long-term results.

    You have to be careful about trying to snag fast-growing stocks like this one at fair value. Fair value next year might be a higher price than overvalued this year. Fair value just means that you're happy with your long-term returns being equal to the company's long-term earnings growth rate+yield. Visa's 5-year earnings growth expectation is 19%. I'm willing to accept 10-15% returns and so am willing to pay a little more than fair value.

    I last topped off my V position at $65.
    Jun 7, 2015. 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Down 20% From Its 52-Week High, Kohl's Is A Dividend Growth Hidden Gem [View article]
    It's just a retailer, and not a particularly good one.

    It might be a decent value play but I can't see it being anything more than that. For long-term retail plays my favorites are ROST, TJX, TGT, and WMT.
    Jun 7, 2015. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Undervalued And Overvalued Dividend Champions [View article]
    >>>he only website I know that gives a 5yr average yield is...<<<

    Yahoo finance does it now too, on the key statistics page.

    Here's PG's, for instance.

    http://yhoo.it/LoC4g3

    On a side note, PG looks like a pretty good value right now.
    Jun 7, 2015. 01:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The No. 1 Stock In The World - Part 1 [View article]
    Not that anyone asked me, but I thought it might be interesting to throw out my personal top 10 list for comparison. In order by market value, my top 10 holdings right now are

    FBIOX, V, MA, GOOG, PM, KMI, LMT, CVX, ROST, JNJ.

    I am aiming for retirement in about 17 years. I have the growth component of my portfolio mostly in place and have recently started focusing on buying companies with 3%+ yields. I won't focus on higher-yield slow-growers like utilities until closer to retirement (say, maybe 10 years out) unless a compelling opportunity presents itself before then.
    May 27, 2015. 01:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The No. 1 Stock In The World - Part 1 [View article]
    >>>Question 1, which is what the panelists answered for this Part 1, did not mention 10 years or any other time horizon. All this part sought was the "best" choice, with best defined by each panelist in his/her own way.<<<

    I see, I misread. Thanks :)
    May 26, 2015. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The No. 1 Stock In The World - Part 1 [View article]
    Great idea for an article. I'm looking forward to part 2. Just one quick comment...

    >>>Of the nine companies selected, only Gilead is obviously undervalued. <<<

    I'm not sure it's so obvious. On a forward-looking P/E basis, especially given that they have been demolishing earnings estimates, it certainly looks cheap, and they do have a good pipeline. However there are a large number of things that stand as potential headwinds to the company, any one of which could cause the E part of the P/E to come way down. If earnings get cut in half for instance, then the P/E of 10 becomes 20 and suddenly the stock doesn't look so cheap anymore.

    I'm indirectly long GILD via FBIOX, but it's definitely not a stock that I would hold as my only stock for 10 years.
    May 26, 2015. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere beats by $0.48, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Can someone explain to me the reason for the large earnings beat despite revenue being basically on target?
    May 23, 2015. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unlikely Cornerstone Of A Long-Term REIT Portfolio [View article]
    >>>Their price trends show quite negative losses for the periods of: one month (-5.05%), three months (-9.63%), and year to date ((-3.20%)<<<

    So you'd rather pay more than less for your stocks?
    May 21, 2015. 03:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unlikely Cornerstone Of A Long-Term REIT Portfolio [View article]
    The Equity Summary Score is just a combined research firm short-term buy/sell recommendation. It's all about where firms think the price is going in the next couple of months and doesn't necessarily have anything to do with business fundamentals.

    I do remember that O had a Summary Score of 0.5 (Very Bearish) - the lowest score I've ever seen - right before it went up 40%.

    I don't pay much attention to this metric.
    May 21, 2015. 03:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exploring The Dividend Sell-Off Approach [View article]
    Very good point. I'm coming around to the idea that it might make sense to utilize a slow-to-be-liquidated cash position and/or sell off 0.5-1% of your portfolio each year during the first few years of retirement on a DG portfolio. As you say, as long as you don't sell too much, eventually the dividends will catch up.
    May 20, 2015. 03:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unlikely Cornerstone Of A Long-Term REIT Portfolio [View article]
    I'm a big fan of Ventas. I've held my shares for a few years and intend to continue holding them for a long time. I'll probably up my stake later this year.
    May 20, 2015. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    Agreed. I would not be surprised if the next correction involved a drop in both stock and bond markets for precisely the reasons you say. It might be quite a shock for the 70/30 stock/bond indexers out there.
    May 12, 2015. 01:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million - Portfolio Management, New Purchase [View article]
    >>>Select high quality stocks.<<<

    Easier said than done. Other than that, great list!

    >>>ROST did exceptionally well in the past 2 recessions which would suggest it does well in down markets. That said, who knows what's in store going forward. <<<

    IMHO it'll double (at minimum) in the next 10 years, even starting at its current lofty level. I know that's a pretty low CAGR but I like to be conservative with my estimates. In reality it'll probably end up doing quite a bit better than that.

    >>>I'm well beyond the initial stages of investing, but if I were to advise one of my friends in their 20s and 30s, I would tell them not to wait to invest in a company like DIS or SBUX or MA if it came on sale. I'm not concerned that MCD or KO's share price is going to jump to the stratosphere<<<

    I agree with this, as long as they are not the panicky type. As Munger once pointed out, with buy-and-hold investing over the long term it is very difficult to do much better in annual return than the long-term earnings growth rate+dividend of the company, even if you time your purchases well. Take something like SO. It yields 5% and grows earnings by 3% per year. Your long-term expected CAGR is 8%. Even if you buy it at a massive discount (say, half off), if you hold it for 40 years, the profit you gain from it rising back to fair value gets spread over all of those years, working out to a total CAGR of about 9.8%. Over such a long time frame, you could end up doing better if you managed to find something that will grow at 12+% per year and overpay for it.
    May 6, 2015. 09:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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