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  • Managing Risk To Help Achieve Long-Term Goals [View article]
    >>>When you start talking about quality and credit ratings the connection can be tougher for culturally dollar trained people to 'see & feel it' as closely. <<<

    It might be worth going into more detail about how you use Value Line's financial strength rating (do you?) and the trends in the Jefferson Research reports by industry, as far as which trends in which of those signals you think matter.

    For instance, (how) do you use the operating efficiency trend? Do you think it's important? Does it factor into your decision making on its own its own, or do you only use it in conjunction with earnings quality and cash flow quality?
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan And The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Truth Regarding Falling Oil Prices [View article]
    >>>As prices continue to drop, the fringe players will go bankrupt and their assets will be absorbed by the likes of Exxon Mobil<<<

    You don't know that they will be absorbed. They might just go bankrupt with no buyers if their production costs are too high.

    >>>Cash flows are fee based...<<<

    Everyone keeps saying this but there are two things that make me cautious about it.

    1-How many of KMI's current customers are highly leveraged small producers that are going to go bust? Fee based or not, if the customer goes bankrupt that business is gone.

    2-If lower commodity prices are going to persist in the future, don't you think the (surviving) suppliers are going to negotiate KMI's fees down on future contracts?
    Dec 16, 2014. 02:47 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Managing Risk To Help Achieve Long-Term Goals [View article]
    >>>1,CVX
    2,COP
    3,XOM
    4,KMI<<<

    Those are my top 4 picks for purchase right now (although I would put COP at the bottom of that list) and are the only 4 energy names I own. I'm also considering adding to my MCD position.
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Misunderstood Admiral Should Surprise To The Upside [View article]
    Nice article. Thanks for the update.
    Dec 13, 2014. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Can Do To Perhaps Avoid Dividend Cuts [View article]
    Well it certainly sounds like Dale was saying that, on average, once a company becomes a Champion, it only stays a champion for 6.5 years. That's a lot different from "the average CEO term at a champion is 6.5 years." I hope he'll come by to clarify soon.
    Dec 11, 2014. 11:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Lessons Learned From Following Warren Buffett [View article]
    >>>Move from Schwab to Bank of America (Merryl Lynch) and you will be able to trade with no transaction fees other than the minor SEC fee when/if you sell.
    The account minimum is $300K. <<<

    I think the minimum is actually only $50k to get free trades.
    Dec 10, 2014. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Can Do To Perhaps Avoid Dividend Cuts [View article]
    >>>And the average tenure of an aristocrat is 6.5 years? <<<

    Whoa there, partner! Do you have a source for this? Have you written an article on this? This seems like a major point for discussion that would suggest investing in aristocrats is far riskier than widely believed.
    Dec 9, 2014. 06:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Lessons Learned From Following Warren Buffett [View article]
    Nice article. These are all very important ideas that we should be reminded of on a regular basis.
    Dec 9, 2014. 02:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Can Do To Perhaps Avoid Dividend Cuts [View article]
    Nice article, although I also agree with Factoids above that forward-looking analysis is also important to help see a dividend cut coming.

    What is your source for beta? AAPL, for instance, has a 1.25 beta at Morningstar and Yahoo Finance but a 0.92 beta at Google Finance.

    >>>Another common practice used by DG investors is to establish a rule to sell in the case of long-term underperformance. Most look at a period of between four and five years and consider selling when a stock has underperform in three or more of those years.<<<

    Without checking the numbers, right now it feels like this might apply to the oil majors, MCD, and PM. However I view those as opportunities rather than dangers. Thoughts?
    Dec 9, 2014. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 DGI Value Research Candidates Found At The Intersection Of The Chowder Rule And Reversion To The P/E Mean [View article]
    I make regular investments each month with new income. I'm going to continue doing that as long as I can find reasonable deals.
    Dec 8, 2014. 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 DGI Value Research Candidates Found At The Intersection Of The Chowder Rule And Reversion To The P/E Mean [View article]
    Good stuff. I've been buying CVX and XOM lately and am considering adding to my relatively small MCD position.

    I might be a little early with these investments but I'd rather be early than late, and frankly I'm not seeing many other attractive opportunities right now.
    Dec 8, 2014. 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting 60/40 Asset Allocation And The 4% Rule [View article]
    So the red line in the second chart is an average, while the blue line ("current") is a minimum. Thanks for clarifying.

    (The "current" graph is the minimum across the years of the the maximum safe withdrawal rate per year, while the "1y average" is the average across the years of the maximum safe withdrawal rate per year.)

    That makes me wonder what the *average* safe withdrawal rate is for current market values and how that compares to the rest of the results you found (which are all averages). I do agree with you that if you are going to follow the 4% rule or something like it you should base that 4% on some sort of average instead of the current market value; I just want to see what the results are if you compare apples to apples.
    Dec 8, 2014. 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting 60/40 Asset Allocation And The 4% Rule [View article]
    Something is wrong here. The first chart says the maximal starting safe withdrawal for a 100% equity portfolio was $3900, right? That means there was SOME year where if you started with a $3901 withdrawal you eventually ran out of money.

    But then the second chart says the maximal starting safe withdrawal for the same 100% equity portfolio was just under $4100.

    That can't be right.

    The maximal starting safe withdrawal is what it is. It's a dollar amount that doesn't change whether you're looking at it as a multiple of the current market value or as a multiple of its historical average.

    I suspect what you're graphing in the second figure is NOT the maximal safe starting withdrawal rate, but rather the AVERAGE safe starting withdrawal rate (averaged across all the starting years in your sample).

    Can you please clarify?
    Dec 8, 2014. 04:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PepsiCo: Model Reveals Outsized Returns Are Here To Stay [View article]
    Well, pretty much everything looks cheap if you use a small enough discount rate. Plugging in what is in my opinion a more realistic (for many reasons which I won't go into here) discount rate of 8.5% into your model says the shares are selling at a 7% premium to fair value.

    Thanks for including the editable spreadsheet, by the way. That's really spiffy.
    Dec 8, 2014. 04:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Million-Dollar Retirement Portfolio: 6-Month Follow-Up [View article]
    Thanks Craig! I checked out your article and I thought it was great. For anyone else interested you can find it here. http://seekingalpha.co...

    It's a broad article. The part about using a cash pile is towards the end, starting around the last two images.
    Dec 6, 2014. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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