How do you explain the historical EV/EBIDTA of 4 to 7 for HIMX?
It's in a highly cyclical industry. PE10 probably better for analysis than using current or Forward P/E. PE10 valuation is even more egregious..
It would be interesting to see Bank of America's report.
This is pure speculation on my part, but I know that HIMX did a 'non-deal' roadshow recently. I wonder if BofA might be angling for a secondary offering fee. They were part of the underwriting syndicate for HIMX IPO in 2006
Hi thank you for reading. I assume $10 rev/unit based on Karl Guttag previous comments on Seeking Alpha.
While it would be exciting for some company to have a deal with Google, the performance requirements in terms of resolution for Google Glass's very small display are very low. I would guess that the panel would only sell in high volume for about $5. Even if you sell 2MU of these that's only $10M gross. Even if they got $10/unit (which I think is the upper price I could see for a low resolution panel) this still is only $20M gross revenue. Once you subtract the cost of making them I don't see how the panel maker going to make much in the way of profit.
You can change the inputs to $20 if you want, but the upshot is that Google or Samsung/Microsoft/Apple needs to sell over 25 million glass units next year to meet high end of historical EV/EBIDTA
By comparison, the original iPhone only sold 6.1 million units.
Paying 12 forward PE for a company in the highly cyclical and fiercely competitive semiconductor industry is extremely speculative.
Take a look at Magnachip (MX).. it's trading at a forward PE of 5, current PE of 3. It has a next 5 year earnings growth of 23% vs HIMX's 15%. Either MX is extremely cheap or HIMX is overvalued.
Goodbye Ron Johnson: J.C. Penney In Flux [View article]
Well it's good that JCP is doing what it's doing in a bull market.. investors more likely to give it a second chance.. Ackman's too nice to split the company apart..
If they did this stuff in 08' JCP would be left for dead..
Goodbye Ron Johnson: J.C. Penney In Flux [View article]
JCP probably not a buy until next year.. The bleeding might stop and you get the favorable YOY comps.. Analysts can raise the price target back up to Ackman's buy-in price
The Singapore Story: No Longer A Sure Thing For Investors? [View article]
I don't like the tone of the article either. It's really offensive to call people retarded. You shouldn't have brought it up in the first place. It makes me think you have a hidden agenda.
has anyone offered BBRY a buyout since it rallied? I don't understand your analogy.. I'm saying if it hasn't happened it probably won't happen.. youtube didnt' dip a lot and rallied to highs before google bought it.
it's below the 200 day sma.. you need to watch out for bear raids not think about buyouts.. if a buyout were the cards, it would have happened when nflx was in the double digits.
I agree. Good article. I don't understand why institutions don't pile in on Len.B. For the same price, they essentially get 30% more dividends over the long haul. if there's a buyout, then the two dual class shares will converge too.
Great Northern Iron Properties: Investors Are Playing Russian Roulette [View article]
For your sake I hope it goes up as well.
A lot of high yielding stocks go down a lot after ex-div date .
In fact look at GNI, and it goes up a couple weeks before (notice the wave next to the dividend date) from buyers buying, and goes down a lot more than dividend afterwards.. (those buyers are exiting). It's actually a good strat if you can short those super high yielding intrinsically overvalued stocks.
Yeah it's good to do research beforehand.. there are actually a lot of articles on seeking alpha on just this phenomenon (on whx, ect, gni, bpt etc.)
Atossa Genetics - Will Investors Be Holding The Bag? [View article]
Hey you know that they just did a secondary right? They did raise money.. It says Aspire Capital buying the first million dollars @ $12 and all the subsequent shares "at the market"
they get 250k free shares plus the shares they subsequently purchase are "the lower of (i) the lowest sale price for our common stock on the purchase date or (ii) the arithmetic average of the three lowest closing sale prices for our common stock during the 12 consecutive business days ending on the business day immediately preceding the purchase date. "
Himax Technologies: The Short Case [View article]
It's in a highly cyclical industry. PE10 probably better for analysis than using current or Forward P/E. PE10 valuation is even more egregious..
It would be interesting to see Bank of America's report.
This is pure speculation on my part, but I know that HIMX did a 'non-deal' roadshow recently. I wonder if BofA might be angling for a secondary offering fee. They were part of the underwriting syndicate for HIMX IPO in 2006
http://bit.ly/10Yj7JB
Himax Technologies: The Short Case [View article]
While it would be exciting for some company to have a deal with Google, the performance requirements in terms of resolution for Google Glass's very small display are very low. I would guess that the panel would only sell in high volume for about $5. Even if you sell 2MU of these that's only $10M gross. Even if they got $10/unit (which I think is the upper price I could see for a low resolution panel) this still is only $20M gross revenue. Once you subtract the cost of making them I don't see how the panel maker going to make much in the way of profit.
Anyway that is the way I see it.
Karl
http://bit.ly/ZpWawe
You can change the inputs to $20 if you want, but the upshot is that Google or Samsung/Microsoft/Apple needs to sell over 25 million glass units next year to meet high end of historical EV/EBIDTA
By comparison, the original iPhone only sold 6.1 million units.
http://bit.ly/10Y8qXy
Himax Technologies: The Short Case [View article]
Take a look at Magnachip (MX).. it's trading at a forward PE of 5, current PE of 3. It has a next 5 year earnings growth of 23% vs HIMX's 15%. Either MX is extremely cheap or HIMX is overvalued.
http://bit.ly/16QwCP8
http://bit.ly/YrH5iW
Himax Technologies: The Short Case [View article]
Goodbye Ron Johnson: J.C. Penney In Flux [View article]
If they did this stuff in 08' JCP would be left for dead..
Goodbye Ron Johnson: J.C. Penney In Flux [View article]
The Singapore Story: No Longer A Sure Thing For Investors? [View article]
Goldfield Corp: Unsustainable Margins And Declining Backlog [View article]
Which Company Will Buy Netflix? [View article]
Which Company Will Buy Netflix? [View article]
Which Company Will Buy Netflix? [View article]
Investigating Lennar's 2 Share Classes [View article]
Great Northern Iron Properties: Investors Are Playing Russian Roulette [View article]
A lot of high yielding stocks go down a lot after ex-div date .
In fact look at GNI, and it goes up a couple weeks before (notice the wave next to the dividend date) from buyers buying, and goes down a lot more than dividend afterwards.. (those buyers are exiting). It's actually a good strat if you can short those super high yielding intrinsically overvalued stocks.
Yeah it's good to do research beforehand.. there are actually a lot of articles on seeking alpha on just this phenomenon (on whx, ect, gni, bpt etc.)
Movado Group: Competition Ahead Makes This Stock A Sell [View article]
Showing you can meet growth expectations is really important.. Just look at COH.. it's trading at 12X Forward Earnings
Atossa Genetics - Will Investors Be Holding The Bag? [View article]
http://yhoo.it/10lhZ0T
but if you read the 10k,
they get 250k free shares plus the shares they subsequently purchase are "the lower of (i) the lowest sale price for our common stock on the purchase date or (ii) the arithmetic average of the three lowest closing sale prices for our common stock during the 12 consecutive business days ending on the business day immediately preceding the purchase date. "
Why beat a dead horse?