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  • 18 Seeking Alpha Contributors And Commentators And Their Picks For Future Dividend Growth [View article]
    Suncoaster, I forgot to mention in my reply to AS that while I no longer own shares of the following companies, my wife continues to hold these in her account. (AS would like her better than me. She doesn't trade as often.)

    CVX, NWN, LTC, VTR, TIS, RDS.B.
    Sep 4, 2015. 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 18 Seeking Alpha Contributors And Commentators And Their Picks For Future Dividend Growth [View article]
    BoomBoom, I haven't kept up with LTC in awhile, but I do remember that the dividend increases were more spotty than I prefer. I gave them some slack because they were relatively small. I was always impressed with the CEO's transparency and clarity of mission. There are lots of good health care REITs to choose from. All the best to you!
    Sep 4, 2015. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 18 Seeking Alpha Contributors And Commentators And Their Picks For Future Dividend Growth [View article]
    AS, I continue to be long HCP, EPD, SO, DLR and STWD. I'm not sure how you define "a little while ago." Some of those holdings go back a few years. Over the past year I have reduced the number of holdings and I have put a higher priority on quality. I held ETV and ETW as proxies for cash when I thought the general market was overvalued. I was simply wrong about NRP, LNCO and PSEC.

    It's helpful to me to review the list. To correct it by excluding present holdings, and the two closed-end funds I mentioned, the issues that might be helpful for Bob's readers to consider studying are: AWR, NWN, KO, LEG, SYY, UHT, PNNT, KMP/KMI, GIS, HAS, WR, ETN, EPR, LTC, VTR, PSEC, TIS, MRK, PPL, RDS.B., MNR, CSG, HTGC, VTR, HASI.

    As noted above, AWR, NWN, KO, GIS, WR, VTR, MRK, VTR and HASI are still on my watch list. I think these are all companies worthy of consideration.

    To whittle the list a bit more:

    LEG's yield is considerably lower than the time I held it.

    I didn't feel comfortable with the level of clarity and transparency of SYY's management.

    I'm rather heavily invested in healthcare REITs, and while UHT is a dividend champion, dividend increases have been tiny and it is very difficult to find information about the company. They do not have quarterly conference calls. The founder/CEO could be nearing retirement and I've wondered if UHT could be a candidate for being taken over by one of the big firms. I remember buying UHT when the yield was considerably more than O and I remember selling it when it's yield was less than O's.

    I like PNNT's management, even though it is externally managed. As a matter of safety, I have chosen to be in its sister BDC, PFLT because it is higher on the debt food chain.

    I have great respect for Richard Kinder. My continuing study of KMI left me ambivalent about their debt structure.

    Awhile back, it seemed to me that GIS was searching for a strategy in a fast-changing industry. There appeared to be better opportunities for yield and growth elsewhere, but I have warmed up to GIS in recent months and that's why it is back on my watch list.

    As I look over this list, HAS is the one holding that I regret selling.

    Those I regret buying include NRP, LNCO, PSEC and CSG. Lessons were learned.

    I like ETN. I'm sad that Sandy Cutler is retiring, but I'm sure it will continue to be a strong industrial. I went instead with EMR, which doesn't look very smart at the moment (like PG), but I believe it will successfully jettison one of its divisions and emerge stronger.

    I believe EPR is a well-managed entertainment REIT. Awhile back, two things converged that caused me to sell: their entry into the casino industry with the development near NYC and what I thought were better opportunities elsewhere.

    LTC is a strong healthcare REIT. I could see them being folded into one of the larger REITs at some point. I bought it during a time of high yields and took advantage of some price appreciation. If I wasn't already heavy into that sector, LTC would be on my watch list.

    After MNR went a decade with no dividend increase, we parted ways with no disrespect.

    In retrospect, my purchase of CSG was a mistake. I moved on.

    I have written about most of these sales in previous articles, including my decision cell CVX. I was sad to let it go at $103, but in retrospect, it could have been worse. I am very pleased to have picked up XOM in the recent severe downdraft. I always use broad market declines as an opportunity to improve the portfolio's safety. That's why I bought XOM for the first time and re-entered a position in EPD.

    I like HTGC. They have embarked on an aggressive growth program and one of the qualifiers that management keeps repeating is that they will meet their goals "if the economy continues to be strong." I decided that I wanted to be focused on companies that aren't quite so dependent on the economy's health. I chose to focus on MAIN, which I believe is the best of breed among BDCs, and on PFLT because of their floating rate, first lien focus.

    I would happily re-enter HASI at $16. I exited HASI after a nice profit when its yield became lower than some of the traditional utility companies.

    Thanks for the chance for me to mentally review these stories. It confirms in my mind that the portfolio is safer now.
    Sep 4, 2015. 09:42 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 18 Seeking Alpha Contributors And Commentators And Their Picks For Future Dividend Growth [View article]
    Bob, thanks for inviting me to be part of this Fantasy League. It's always fun to see the common threads as well as the variety of thought in the SA community.

    Here are the price changes since July 2 for the five that I submitted (from July 2 to September 2):

    AVX was $13.27. It dropped to $12.90. Current yield 3.3%
    LAMR was $58.00. It dropped to $52.23. Current yield 5.3%
    MHLD was $15.83. It dropped to $14.14. Current yield 3.7%
    PKG was $63.83. It rose to $65.54. Current yield 3.4%
    QCOM was $62.58. It dropped to $55.86. Current yield 3.4%.

    Since this article is all about gathering ideas for stocks to study, Here's my real world portfolio as of September 2:

    Target 6%, range 5.8% to 6.0% of the portfolio: JNJ, EMR, T, O, WPC;

    Target 5%, range 4.8% to 5.4% of the portfolio: MMM, PEP, XOM, HCP, SO;

    Target 4%, range 3.8% to 4.3% of the portfolio: NNN, MAIN, EPD, STAG, CCP;

    Target 3%, range 2.8% to 3.0% of the portfolio: GPC, PG, IBM, WEC, CNP;

    Target 2%, range from 1.5% to 2.9% of the portfolio: DLR, OHI, STWD, PFLT, EVA.

    The current portfolio yield is 5.37%.

    Watch list: AWR, DOV, PH, NWN, KO, CL, ED, ADP, MCD, WGL, MMP, MSFT, AVA, GIS, WR, VTR, MRK, HASI, KHC, CAFD, SCHD.

    Stocks added to the portfolio since July 2:

    XOM on August 20;
    SO on September 1;
    EPD on July 21;
    STAG on July 21;
    CCP on August 18;
    CNP on August 3;
    DLR on September 1;
    OHI on July 22.

    Happy hunting!
    Sep 3, 2015. 05:38 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enterprise Products Partners - A Tricky Situation [View article]
    The thesis seems to be that these units are more risky since the price has declined from $41 to $25. So, if these units had appreciated from 41 to 70, would EPD be a less risky investment? I don't think it's EPD that's foggy.
    Sep 2, 2015. 09:11 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Short List Of SWANs To Own For The Long Haul [View article]
    "VTR has a fortress balance sheet (BBB+ rated by S&P) and the current dividend yield is 5.6%."

    Brad, VTR is a great REIT, but their dividend yield is 5.2%, not 5.6%, and there is no post-spin dividend increase anticipated by management. The $.73 quarterly dividend is the announced run-rate, which is $2.92 annually. As I said over the weekend in another of your articles, I'm afraid you're mis-leading potential investors on this one. I thought your earlier article was an oversight. You are repeating the error in this article. Your comment above tells me you understand the post-spin dividend is now $.73, but I believe your calculator is stuck on $.79. :-)
    Aug 31, 2015. 12:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Many Healthcare REITs Should You Own? [View article]
    Thanks, Brad. I joined the conversation because I was concerned some people might be mis-led by all the moving parts. We are now post-spin, so the earlier 10% language (which factored in a reduction in VTR's quarterly dividend from $.79 to $.73, plus CCP's anticipated quarterly dividend of $.57) may be confusing to some who are just now coming back from vacation.

    Since no official dividend action has been taken by either the VTR or CCP boards, the financial news media (including SA) are still reporting VTR's dividend as $3.16, when the company has clearly stated the "run rate" for the dividend will be $2.92.

    If someone looks up VTR on SA and sees a $3.16 dividend and an indicated yield of 5.6%, and then reads your statement, "... the company said it expects to increase its dividend by 10% this quarter," one might conclude that the dividend is going to be increased by 31 cents or so beyond $3.16. I would hate for someone to make a buy decision based on that error.

    I cannot find any indication that VTR will increase the dividend beyond $2.92 this quarter. I interpret your statement about an increase of "10% this quarter" as a "pre-spin" reference to the new CCP dividend offset by the new VTR dividend. Yesterday, VTR's Kyle Knezovich said we should consider $2.92 the "run rate" for the VTR dividend.

    Thanks for your good work!
    Aug 29, 2015. 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Many Healthcare REITs Should You Own? [View article]
    Alschroed, I just had a phone conversation with Kyle Knezovich, with the VTR Investor Relations office. He said that the 10% increase language associated with the spinoff reflects the new VTR dividend of $.73 per quarter plus the new dividend for CCP. There has not been a statement from the company about another 10% increase above the $2.92 annual rate. Kyle said we should consider the $.73 per quarter, or $2.92 annually, the "run rate" for the dividend.

    Some websites (such as SA) are still reflecting a $3.16 annual dividend (the old, pre-spin $.79 per quarter). The SA website indicates a yield of 5.6%. That is incorrect. The indicated VTR yield at today's $56.70 price is 5.15%.

    One could read into Brad's article that he is expecting another increase beyond the current $.73 per quarter. That's not the way I see it.
    Aug 28, 2015. 12:15 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Many Healthcare REITs Should You Own? [View article]
    Brad, thanks for another good healthcare REIT article. Help me understand the VTR dividend. The quote below is from the company's August 18 press release http://bit.ly/1MSGiPq), which had this sub-heading: "Ventas Expects to Declare Third Quarter 2015 Dividend of At Least $0.73 Per Share."

    "Ventas expects to declare a dividend of at least $0.73 per share and CCP expects to declare a dividend of $0.57 per share ($0.1425 per share on a pre 1:4 adjustment basis). This is consistent with Ventas’s previous expectation that the companies’ combined dividend would increase at least 10 percent from its current level of $0.79 on an aggregate basis following the Spin-Off. In each case the expected dividend increase will be effective for the third quarter 2015, subject to approval by each respective Board of Directors. Ventas’s 10 year dividend compound annual growth rate is 9 percent."

    Are you saying VTR has announced an additional 10% beyond the indicated $2.92 annual dividend rate stated in this press release?

    Thanks for your help!
    Aug 28, 2015. 08:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Own Southern Company And AGL Resources - Now What Do I Do? [View article]
    Yes, CILockwood. The "arbitrage" difference in the price is described by PaulAlbert above, "...uncertainty (about whether the deal will be approved by regulators) and time value of money are why GAS is not trading any where near $66."

    Chuck--Thanks for a clear, concise, helpful article.
    Aug 26, 2015. 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Roller-Coaster Market [View instapost]
    Thanks, Bob. This is a good time to be holding some cash!

    Let us know how it turns out. All the best!
    Aug 25, 2015. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Roller-Coaster Market [View instapost]
    Thanks! One of the leading weather forecasters in our area was surprised by a snowstorm last year and couldn't complete his drive to the TV station because of the weather. He had to finish the trek by walking.

    I probably shouldn't have mentioned Gartman because I had already decided XOM is a good long term buy at these levels--regardless of the price of oil.

    All the best!
    Aug 25, 2015. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM's 21st Century Transition Is Failing [View article]
    Pete, I'm pleased you decided to grace the SA landscape again. I always enjoy hearing your insights based on your perspective and experience with IBM.

    After carefully weighing the debate (including your good books)--and from my very limited vantage point as an extreme outsider to the company and the industry--I'm long IBM based on four words near the end of your helpful article: "It will come back." I hope we're both right!
    Aug 25, 2015. 09:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Roller-Coaster Market [View instapost]
    Thanks for your comment, Archman. No slight taken.

    So, what's your guess about the price of oil? :-)
    Aug 25, 2015. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Health Investors Lost Its CEO But Gained A New Shareholder [View article]
    Thanks for another good healthcare REIT article. Do you keep a stethoscope near your calculator?

    All seriousness aside, and as a former resident of the Volunteer State, I can assure you that there is as much to do in Tennessee as in Irvine. It may be that not as much of it is legal in Tennessee, but nonetheless....

    The CEO of the Rutherford County Chamber of Commerce is a friend of mine. I'm sure you'll be hearing from him. :-)

    PS -- Since CCP was spun off, I had a limit order in at $32 to round out my target allocation. It filled yesterday morning at $30. Sometimes it helps to be standing in line at the right place!
    Aug 25, 2015. 09:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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