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Dividend Sleuth

 
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  • Ben Graham's Explanation For The Dividend Champions' Premium Valuation [View article]
    Thanks, Eli. It's always good to hear a word from Ben.
    Aug 10 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors - Mind Your Own Business [View article]
    Eddie, thanks for sharing your investment design. Great wisdom. Thanks also for the reminder about patience. When I want to ditch the data and fly by the seat of my pants I think of you and Bob Wells and say to myself, "Whoa, Boy. Does this idea fit into the plan?"
    Aug 10 08:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Cracker Barrel Old Country Store For Its Earnings Growth And High Dividend Yield [View article]
    Mart, if you became a shareholder you might have a different view of those prices. The store side of the operation provides the profit margin!

    :-)
    Aug 8 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Company - Still A Buy, But Currently Fully Valued [View article]
    Thanks for another good kilowatt article, George. I've set my SO thermostat at $40. That's the point at which I would shake the cookie jar to try to buy some more. 5.25% at the current dividend would be hard to resist.
    Aug 7 03:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ease Of REIT Conversion Portends Danger For REITs [View article]
    I see your point. I'm pleased that I'm not on the IRS committee that has to make decisions like this. Here's a paragraph from my recent article (http://bit.ly/1AY6XUF):

    The title and subtitle of a May 30, 2013 article by Herman Trabish in the Greentech Media Newsletter are instructive: "How Hannon Armstrong Got the IRS to Approve Its Renewable REIT" and "Energy efficiency was the key to the first REIT for renewables." Trabish quotes Hannon Armstrong's CEO Jeffrey Eckel as saying HASI received its favorable ruling because of the high proportion of renewable energy assets in the portfolio (as opposed to energy efficiency assets). "The difference between renewables and energy efficiency from the IRS' perspective is pretty large. Energy efficiency assets are really building components."

    Maybe a bolted-on solar panel doesn't qualify but a free-standing wind turbine does. If HASI owns the property the wind turbine is on, and leases it to a power company--that would be easier to understand, like American Tower leasing space to telecom companies.
    Aug 7 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Cracker Barrel Old Country Store For Its Earnings Growth And High Dividend Yield [View article]
    Jeroen, thanks for your helpful article. I'm newly long CBRL. In your research did you discover a statement from management about their dividend policy? The recent dividend hikes seem inspired by their largest shareholder, who has been advocating a big special dividend. The large dividend hikes cannot continue forever. I'm curious if management has made any statement about whether they believe they have achieved a target payout ratio, for example.
    Aug 7 11:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Signs A Market Bottom Is Forming [View article]
    Occasionally the broad market will get caught up in a big move up or down. We've enjoyed a broad move up since '09. But, as Chuck Carnevale and others have said many times, it is more a "market of stocks" than a "stock market." One reason the broad market averages have advanced so amazingly is that we've had rolling corrections via sector rotation and mini-corrections of single stocks spiking down from time to time. These sector swoons and individual stock dips tend to be masked by the broad trend, which continues to be up.

    How's the weather in America today? It depends on whether you are in Kansas City or Cincinnati or Wherever. The general trend--the season--gives you a context, but there is much variation from place to place.

    I think it's crucial for a long term investor to stay focused on one's individual stocks and how each holding fits into overall goal of one's portfolio. For me, that means monitoring earnings and dividend growth.
    Aug 7 06:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IREIT TV: An Exclusive Interview With ARCP's David Kay [View article]
    Brad, thanks for importing the interview format to Seeking Alpha. Because of ARCP's rapid growth and Nicholas Schorsch's image as a risk-taking mover and shaker, it's helpful to experience David Kay's steady demeanor as the CEO-designate.
    Aug 6 05:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Champions, 2 Contenders And 2 Newbies Added To Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks, Aterosin. I have great admiration for teachers. I live with a retired teacher. I'm a Fool fan, too. We learn from each other!
    Aug 6 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ease Of REIT Conversion Portends Danger For REITs [View article]
    I'll chime in on this one, TP. I just completed two SA articles about recent purchases--both REITs, though they seem (to me) more like BDCs. United Development Funding (NASDAQ:UDF) does short-term financing as a mREIT for single family developers and homebuilders. Hannon Armstrong (NYSE:http://bit.ly/1pCtyQD) invests in clean energy infrastructure. They are both "outside the box" REITs.
    Aug 6 01:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Champions, 2 Contenders And 2 Newbies Added To Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks, Ajckson, for sharing your perspective. I'm sure that as a professional you could elaborate about the many nuances of the decision-making process. Chowder's point, as I understand it, is that he does not automatically sell a holding if the CR number falls below 12. It may mean that the market has begun to more appropriately value the stock, but not necessarily to the point that the stock is so over-valued that it should be sold.

    Of the sixteen Dividend Champions in my portfolio, none has a CR number of 12. Of the three utilities, NWN and WGL are close to 8 (which, as I understand it, is Chowder's minimum number for purchasing a utility). AWR's CR number is 11.5 due to their stellar growth rate.

    So, the 13 non-utility Champions might not qualify for purchase at these levels but that does not automatically mean a "sell" is in order. I think that is Chowder's approach and it is certainly my approach. If I sold GPC, PG, JNJ, etc., would it be to raise cash, hoping to buy them later at a lower price? Or, would it be to put that money into something that is a better bargain? Given the current interest rate environment and given the long-term stability of those stalwarts, I am hard pressed to find a better use of the money. (Part of this is colored by my perspective as a investor, not a trader.)

    The question you put to your trainees is a good "food for thought" question. I'm not a professional. I learned about investing through many years of experience with the tools of the old National Association of Investment Clubs (these days doing business as BetterInvesting.org). Their venerable tool, the Stock Selection Guide, provides a framework for the average person to make an informed decision about stock by looking at the stock's previous ten years of earnings per share, pre-tax profit, total sales or revenues, and a few other data points. Then, using a paper semi-logrhythmic chart (or, these days, via a computer program) one estimates a projected high price for the next five years. By looking at the historic low PE ratio, the price support provided by the projected dividend, any recent severe market lows, etc., one can estimate a projected low price for the stock over the next five years. Based on the projected high and projected low, one can arrive at a buy range, a hold range, and a sell range.

    Your "why am I holding it now" question to the trainees is a good discussion starter to prompt rigorous analysis, but I don't think you mean to imply that if a stock is not a "buy" then it is automatically a "sell."

    I wish you good fortune in all the funds you are shepherding, unless you have funds that short stocks--I can't give that endeavor my blessing! :-)
    Aug 6 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Clean Energy Stocks For 2014: August Update [View article]
    Thanks for the excellent review, Tom. I appreciate your help and your good work. Enjoy the backpacking trip.
    Aug 6 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Champions, 2 Contenders And 2 Newbies Added To Portfolio [View article]
    Good question, Gary. It was a combination of five things:
    1) The overall operating numbers looked good;
    2) At $97, CBRL was 18.2% below its 52-week high of $118.63;
    3) The yield was over 4.0%;
    4) Management has aggressively raised the dividend in recent years;
    5) The $5.99 Monday-Friday daily special--Country House Salad with Grilled Chicken & Baked Potato: http://bit.ly/1pBXJYq
    Bon appitit!
    Aug 6 06:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UDF: A Single-Family Residential mREIT [View article]
    Thank you, Maybenot. I would like to hear your evaluation of UDF. I see potential but there is much not yet known. Have a great day!
    Aug 6 06:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Vs. Chevron: All Dividend Yields Are Not Created Equal [View article]
    Cape, it's 8 o'clock somewhere, right? After you spend the next hour or so with Johnnie, let me tell you about some swampland I can get for you at a great price!
    Aug 5 09:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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