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  • American Capital Agency's Dividend Sustainability Analysis (Post Q4 2014 Earnings) - Part 2 [View article]
    Hi Scott,

    I posted a comment on my article with my interpretation of this article. I hope I got the big picture.

    Here is my comment:

    "Here is a link to Scott Kennedy's latest AGNC dividend sustainability article.http://bit.ly/1wrITe7

    I interpret his analysis as neutral to slightly positive. He projects a stable dividend over the next 2 months. Since the market is pricing AGNC at about 15% or more below their BV, I see Scott's analysis as modestly positive compared to the markets viewpoint.

    I will quote part of Scott's article:

    "Readers have specifically asked for a "longer-term" dividend sustainability analysis and I believe such an analysis has now been performed. The positive and negative factors listed above are in relation to AGNC's future dividend sustainability over the next several years. If, over time, AGNC's MBS and derivative portfolios begin to exhibit more negative versus positive characteristics listed above, then the likelihood of a dividend decrease would increase. If, over time, AGNC's MBS and derivative portfolios begin to exhibit more positive versus negative characteristics listed above, then the likelihood of a dividend increase would increase. Currently, I continue to believe AGNC's positive factors are relatively balanced to the company's negative factors. As such, I continue to not expect any material increases or decreases to AGNC's dividend per common share rate.

    Therefore, the following are my AGNC common stock dividend projections for March 2015 and April 2015:

    AGNC's Dividend Projection for March 2015: $0.22 per share

    AGNC's Dividend Projection for April 2015: $0.22 per share

    I also project MTGE and NLY will declare a stable $0.65 and $0.30 per share dividend for the first quarter of 2015, respectively.

    I rate AGNC, MTGE, and NLY as a SOLID HOLD when I believe the company's stock price is trading at a modest (over 5% but under 10%) discount to CURRENT BV, and a BUY when trading at a material (at or over 10%) discount to CURRENT BV.

    As such, I currently rate AGNC, MTGE, and NLY as a BUY since each stock is trading at a material discount to my projected CURRENT BV (BV as of 2/20/2015).

    Final Note: Each investor's BUY, SELL, or HOLD decision is based on one's risk tolerance, time horizon, and dividend income goals. My personal recommendation may not fit each investor's current investing strategy.

    Additional disclosure: I currently have no position in NLY or WMC."

    Again I interpret Scott's analysis as neutral to slightly positive.

    You can disagree, that is what makes a market. We shall see how AGNC does in 2015.
    Feb 26, 2015. 08:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Retirement Portfolio Generates 8.8% Of Income For This Retiree: Updated [View article]
    Bucknfl,

    If you take the time to read my AGNC articles and Scott Kennedy's articles you would understand my strategy.

    I do not hedge or use options, etc. My protection is in the form of my knowledge. Could I be wrong, yes I could be wrong. However I believe the probability of success is currently in my favor by a significant degree.

    I do not plan on owning AGNC at this high a % of my portfolio indefinitely. I continue to adjust my portfolio based on new information.
    Feb 26, 2015. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital And The Cat And Mouse Game [View article]
    45Cal,

    It has been about 2 months since I made my comment above so I can't recall the exact reason I did so.

    Maybe I did not have all the facts and responded based on one fact that I felt was accurate, however maybe you know of other facts that you feel substantiates your negative comments regarding William.

    At this point in time, I can only say your comment seemed quite harsh and I felt you could have called him out in a different way. I do not have all the facts regarding your prior conversations with William, so I can't make any judgements based on them.

    You are correct regarding that.

    I have to get to an appointment and will review what led me to making my original comment. I do recall that you did misinterpret something the Author stated.

    William does change his mind on a dime, he is a trader in my opinion, not an investor.
    Feb 26, 2015. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Retirement Portfolio Generates 8.8% Of Income For This Retiree: Updated [View article]
    PendragonY,

    I think we see things differently.

    As far as the dividend not being raised, you can believe whatever you want.

    Let me ask you a question, do you think AGNC's dividend has more upside or downside from here? It appears you think they have more downside. I on the other hand see more upside for AGNC's dividend over the next 5 years.

    AGNC has been an outstanding investment for me. I have been debating friends and people here at SA since I first bought AGNC in 2011. I am tired of it so lets agree to disagree on AGNC and its future dividend sustainability.

    "I have written several articles on AGNC. I am very satisfied with AGNC and its dividend payments. Please read my prior AGNC articles to get a better understanding of why I have such a large investment in AGNC. I have been able to manage my AGNC position during a period in which there were large decreases in price and dividend reductions during 2013. Even under those negative economic and market conditions, my AGNC position has achieved realized and unrealized gains."

    **** Not sure why you think that since I was able to navigate AGNC's worst economic return year of 2013 (not to mention a substantial share price decline) and achieve REALIZED and UNREALIZED gains as of today, why I will not be able to navigate AGNC's rebound in 2014 and any other scenario that unfolds in 2015?

    Here is a link to Scott Kennedy's latest AGNC dividend sustainability article.
    http://bit.ly/1wrITe7

    I interpret his analysis as neutral to slightly positive. He projects a stable dividend over the next 2 months. Since the market is pricing AGNC at about 15% or more below their BV, I see Scott's analysis as modestly positive compared to the markets viewpoint.

    I will quote part of Scott's article:

    "Readers have specifically asked for a "longer-term" dividend sustainability analysis and I believe such an analysis has now been performed. The positive and negative factors listed above are in relation to AGNC's future dividend sustainability over the next several years. If, over time, AGNC's MBS and derivative portfolios begin to exhibit more negative versus positive characteristics listed above, then the likelihood of a dividend decrease would increase. If, over time, AGNC's MBS and derivative portfolios begin to exhibit more positive versus negative characteristics listed above, then the likelihood of a dividend increase would increase. Currently, I continue to believe AGNC's positive factors are relatively balanced to the company's negative factors. As such, I continue to not expect any material increases or decreases to AGNC's dividend per common share rate.

    Therefore, the following are my AGNC common stock dividend projections for March 2015 and April 2015:

    AGNC's Dividend Projection for March 2015: $0.22 per share

    AGNC's Dividend Projection for April 2015: $0.22 per share

    I also project MTGE and NLY will declare a stable $0.65 and $0.30 per share dividend for the first quarter of 2015, respectively.

    I rate AGNC, MTGE, and NLY as a SOLID HOLD when I believe the company's stock price is trading at a modest (over 5% but under 10%) discount to CURRENT BV, and a BUY when trading at a material (at or over 10%) discount to CURRENT BV. As such, I currently rate AGNC, MTGE, and NLY as a BUY since each stock is trading at a material discount to my projected CURRENT BV (BV as of 2/20/2015).

    Final Note: Each investor's BUY, SELL, or HOLD decision is based on one's risk tolerance, time horizon, and dividend income goals. My personal recommendation may not fit each investor's current investing strategy.

    Additional disclosure: I currently have no position in NLY or WMC."

    Again I interpret Scott's analysis as neutral to slightly positive.

    You can disagree, that is what makes a market. We shall see how AGNC does in 2015.
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Is A 'Too Good To Be True' Investment [View article]

    GetRealHere,

    Did you read my article?
    Feb 25, 2015. 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Retirement Portfolio Generates 8.8% Of Income For This Retiree: Updated [View article]
    " I can, but I suspect they would not meet some other of your subjective criteria."

    You won't know if they meet my criteria or not if you don't share with us your stocks.
    Feb 24, 2015. 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Retirement Portfolio Generates 8.8% Of Income For This Retiree: Updated [View article]
    Hi Atomic City,


    Thanks for the kind words.
    Feb 24, 2015. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Retirement Portfolio Generates 8.8% Of Income For This Retiree: Updated [View article]
    rashbaugh,

    I present all my holdings and % allocations and the detailed management of each of them that are currently generating an 8.8% yield. If I thought there was a diversified portfolio that was as solid as mine that generated 8.8%, I would make the appropriate changes in a heart beat. I have not found a diversified quality portfolio that meets my goals and criteria. I consider my 3 stocks as high quality!!!

    Your answer of 'Through more diversification." is not useful.

    I have also presented my top 10 stocks here at SA which without AGNC/MTGE yields about 4% if I remember correctly. http://bit.ly/17TscfB

    If I add AGNC/MTGE with a higher % allocation, maybe I can get 6-7%, I will have to work out the % allocation to see what I get. Maybe my next article.

    My point is that I am actually very selective and many of the stocks/funds/ETF's that can generate an 8.8% yield or higher that many have suggested do not meet my criteria for a solid investment.

    So, if you have specific stocks to buy that will generate an 8.8% yield, I am waiting.
    Feb 24, 2015. 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Retirement Portfolio Generates 8.8% Of Income For This Retiree: Updated [View article]
    Hi Scott,

    Thanks for your take on my portfolio and KMI and MTGE. Any readers who want to understand mREITs and AGNC particularly, I recommend reading Mr. Scott Kennedy's articles. They are very detailed and complicated, so one would need a background in accounting/finances or be obsessed with learning and put in 1,000 + hours of study ( just an off the cuff estimate of the hours I have put into studying Scott's articles and talking about them with Scott, other SA members and friends and family via private messages and personal conversations, additionally I have written several articles and hundreds or more comments about AGNC). It might actually be more than 1000 hours. I am still a beginner and learning more from Scott and other SA members everyday.
    Feb 24, 2015. 11:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Retirement Portfolio Generates 8.8% Of Income For This Retiree: Updated [View article]
    Thanks Small,

    I am sorry for all your painful experiences. I have had my share of Family illness, etc. I have lost friends and family. I agree that health is #1, and I do my best everyday to take care of myself.

    I am doing the best I can. No one knows the future. Good luck to you and I will continue to update my readers when I make any changes to my portfolio and when dividends are reinvested.
    Feb 24, 2015. 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Retirement Portfolio Generates 8.8% Of Income For This Retiree: Updated [View article]
    Robert,

    Good to hear. Keep up the good work.
    Feb 24, 2015. 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Retirement Portfolio Generates 8.8% Of Income For This Retiree: Updated [View article]
    Robert,

    We have different perspectives and hopefully we can respect each other's viewpoints and learn something from each other.

    I currently have an excess of dividend income at this point in time from our retirement accounts (our dividend income is greater than 25% of our annual expenses). Since I have over 83% of my retirement money in ROTH IRA's I will have a small tax bill when I start to collect my dividends.

    If my plan proceeds as I have it outlined, my dividend income will continue to compound and grow over the next several years.

    Only time will tell if I made the right decisions.
    Feb 24, 2015. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Retirement Portfolio Generates 8.8% Of Income For This Retiree: Updated [View article]
    Robert Allan Schwartz ,

    I am 55 years young and I retired from full time work in 2013. I am doing some part time work. The income is enough to enable me to contribute to our Roth IRA's.


    "When I am retired, and living off my dividends, the absolute last thing I want to own is a company that freezes, reduces, or eliminates its dividend, because that affects my ability to pay my bills.


    I wouldn't own AGNC because it won't help me achieve my investing goals.

    However, if you own AGNC because you believe it will help you achieve your investing goals, then I wish you well."

    Robert, I understand and respect your reasoning and point of view. I have no issues with it.

    I have felt that you have previously wanted to discredit my investing choices. I realize that I am taking on more risk for more yield at this point in time. Your investing choices carry less risk and a lower steady rising yield.

    I hope we can get along better from this point forward and I wish you well regarding your investing and retirement goals.

    Feb 24, 2015. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Retirement Portfolio Generates 8.8% Of Income For This Retiree: Updated [View article]
    Pend,

    I did not shout out a dividend RAISE, capital letters were not meant as a shout, only to point out that Robert missed it, because he only sees dividend CUTS when he looks at AGNC, and he missed a RAISE.

    A raise is a raise even if a penny. When one has over 25K shares a penny a quarter adds up. Remember that I added shares in 2013 near AGNC lows ( at one point AGNC comprised 65% of my entire portfolio) and sold shares in 2014 at a nice profit and still own over 25K shares now. My portfolio presented above has been scaled down.
    Feb 24, 2015. 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Retirement Portfolio Generates 8.8% Of Income For This Retiree: Updated [View article]
    Pend,

    Comment from me:
    "The entire AGNC story is a very successful one. "

    Comment from PendragonY
    "I wouldn't say very, but yes, it has been successful. BUT that doesn't make it a stock for those who want or need a steady income source."

    I am going to quote Be Here Now's comment on this thread:

    " Be Here Now

    I really enjoy the debates between two authors I follow, Dividends#1 and RAS.

    As an owner of AGNC and mighty MO, I thought it would be instructive to use Dividend Channel to compare them over the long term, and since AGNC is much younger than MO, the long term is the lifetime of AGNC. Over that period, starting 5/15/2008, the annualized total return with dividends reinvested of AGNC is 21.5% and MO is 21.36%. Over the same period, given a $10,000 investment, and with dividends not reinvested (e.g. living on the dividends in retirement), total dividends paid by AGNC were $16,067, and MO paid $4,848.

    As a retiree dependent on dividends for a significant part of my income, AGNC looks very attractive, which is why I own it. However, as RAS correctly points out, AGNC is not a reliable dividend payer. If you want reliability over total income, AGNC is not for you. Mighty MO on the other hand is a very reliable dividend payer, and if you want total return, MO is the best.

    I own MO for its reliability and generosity, and AGNC for its its even greater generosity while ignoring its volatility. However, I own a lot more MO+PM than AGNC."

    If you think that AGNC's performance is not very successful, we will have to again agree to disagree.

    We obviously have very different perspectives of what very successful is.

    **** Receiving $16,067 in dividend income (not reinvested) from AGNC on every $10K invested in less than 7 years is very successful in my book. Granted 7 years is not a long time frame, however it is AGNC's history which includes 2013 and its huge price and dividend reductions that everyone focuses on while disregarding the whole picture!!!

    AGNC's income might not be steady over the last 7 years, HOWEVER it is HUGE!!!
    Feb 24, 2015. 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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