Deep-down in my soul, I am a contrarian. The third quarter market run-up converted most of the great dividend stock buys into ‘ok’ buys (at best). As September came to a close, I felt a sense of excitement entering October. This is the month that stocks have traditionally gone on sale. I was prepared to make a double allocation (or more) depending on the level of the markets decline. It didn’t happen. Once again, investor emotions drove the market in an unpredictable direction.

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Community Trust Bank Corp. (CTBI) (pdf file). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Community Trust Bank Corp. owns and operates Community Trust Bank, Inc. of Pikeville, KY, which provides commercial banking services in Kentucky and West Virginia; and a trust company.
Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

It is a well-documented fact that a significant portion of the historical equity returns are a result of reinvested dividends. In Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns (2002), the authors looked at equity returns from capital gains and dividends from 1900 to 2000. They determined that performance in any given year was driven by capital appreciation, but long-term returns were largely the result of reinvested dividends.

We all want to succeed in everything that we do, including investing in the stock market. Though I have no analytical data to back it up, I am convinced that most people will lose money in the stock market over their lifetime. So why do so few people succeed at investing? Could it be that an individual’s desire to succeed be a significant reason for their failure.

Each month I update the Pocket Change Portfolio (PCP). The table below reconciles the PCP from beginning of period to end of period for October 2009, Year-To-Date (2009) and Life-To-Date. The Portfolio Returns line provides the calculated return for the three displayed periods.

Online Cash Receipts are the collected earnings from my online endeavors. Most of which is advertising on the my various blogs. The year-to-date $30.00 Online Expenses relates to registering 3 domains (DividendsValue.com, Dividends4Life.com and TheDiv-Net.com). October Dividends include $4.21 from Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF (BLV), $9.02 from The Coca-Cola Company (KO), $11.20 from Genuine Parts Co. (GPC), and $9.60 from Sysco Corp. (SYY). The Interest Income line is interest earned on cash balances in an ING account I set up for the PCP. The Gain/(Loss) line is for market changes to the PCP (realized and unrealized).

We all are looking for the perfect dividend stock. In a utopian world, the perfect dividend stock would be one that is both high-yield and provides a high dividend growth rate. Its share price would appreciate ratable with its increasing dividend. All of this would be driven by increasing earnings and cash flow.

Driven by computers that cost more than the average person will earn in their lifetime the investment markets move at light speed. To keep pace hedge funds, mutual funds, institutional investors and multi-billion dollar money managers spend large sums of money on high-tech tools to give them an edge. Throw in some illegal insider trading from big names in the industry and it leaves you wondering what chance does a small individual investor have?

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Johnson & Johnson engages in the manufacture and sale of various products in the health care field worldwide.
Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

Once again it is time for a goals/progress update. I am pleased to report that annualized dividend income rose in October, extending the streak to 8 months after February 2009’s decline. Since I began publicly tracking annualized dividend income in November 2007, it has increased in 22 of the last 23 months.

Investing in Dividend Stocks is a long-term strategy. Frequent buying and selling of dividend stocks can significantly increase your expenses and taxes, thus lowering your returns. A growing dividend is a strong indication of a company’s increasing intrinsic value. Great companies that increase dividends tend to have rising share prices over time. Holding only first-rate businesses protects your dividend streams and helps ensure you’ll also get steady price appreciation.

Those that have read this space for any period of time are well aware of my enthusiasm for using dividend growth stocks as a vehicle for building long-term wealth and income. However, with that said, a successful investor must do more than just buy stocks that pay a growing dividend, or more than focus on a single metric such as dividend yield. Not all dividend stocks are created equal – there is a discipline to selecting good dividend growth stocks.

Understand Your Goal

What is your portfolio trying to accomplish? As odd is it may seem, many investors never define this and their overall goal. Are you buying stocks like First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc (FR) with a 22% yield, Capstead Mortgage Corporation (CMO) with a 17% yield, Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) with a 16% yield or Apollo Investment Corp. (AINV) with a 12% yield? If your goal is short-term income these might work, and then again they might not.

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Courier Corp. (CRRC). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Courier Corporation publishes, prints and sells books. Founded in 1824, Courier has two lines of business: Full-service book manufacturing and specialty publishing.

Throughout history there have always been great companies that stand head-and-shoulders above their peers and the competition. They are loved by their shareholders, hated by the competition and known by all. Just as all great companies have have something in common, great dividend companies also have something in common.

Adding a degree of risk to your income portfolio can not only keep things interesting, but potentially boost your returns. Obviously, this needs to be kept in check because many (most?) risky investments never pan out. So instead of a boost in return, the risky investments end up being a drag on your portfolio’s return.

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Abbott Laboratories (ABT). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

After each quarter-end I review my asset allocation and year-to-date total returns by category. The attached PDF contains my actual asset allocation as of 2009-Q3. Below is a high-level summary of the information contained in the PDF:

Dividends from a quality, well-diversified portfolio are much more predictable than capital gains and best of all, they are passive. You don’t have to do anything, they just show up in your brokerage account each quarter. Inflation? Not to worry, the good companies routinely raise their dividends well in excess of the inflation rate.

What makes a good dividend stock? Every dividend growth investor is looking for a stock that will increase its dividend each and every year at a rate that makes the stock a better investment than fixed income alternatives. I have found that stocks that are able to do this share some common characteristics.

With the recent decline in the U.S. dollar, investors are thinking more about international diversification. This can be accomplished by many different means, such as buying a foreign stock, buying an ADR of a foreign company or investing in an international fund. However, one method that is often overlooked is buying a large U.S. multi-national company.

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. is the largest retailer in North America. The company operates retail stores in various formats worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wal-Mart Stores, Sam’s Club, and International.
Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description: