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DNA Decoder

 
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  • Sierra Wireless: This Tech Stock Is Set To Scale New Heights [View article]
    I like SWIR, but I don't feel comfortable holding it long term right now. I sold my small position yesterday for a 19% profit. I may consider trading it again if it continues on this choppy $18 to $24 range.
    Aug 13 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    Nice story from the author, thanks for the article.

    My 2 cents... this is a Fed-based market, so Fed decisions will make a bigger impact on market direction than anything else. So rather than solely relying on technicals, other things need to be checked too.

    On a YoY basis, building permits, home sales, orders, unemployment claims, etc, are slowly looking better. On that front one would think the Fed will raise rates soon, but...

    Lately, commodities are going down (even oil a little bit), the dollar is going up (maybe suggesting that CPI will go down again) and what's really interesting... the yield curve keeps flattening. That could be why Yellen was kind of dovish, even in the face of improving numbers. If you compare corporate debt performance with that of treasuries, it's kind of worrisome because it contrasts with the rising stock market. The yield curve is driving that divergence.

    So for good or bad what I decided to do in the last 2 months was to carefully buy specific stocks with catalysts or drivers, because ultimately, I think the "buy on dips and hold" strategy is not over yet, and also if a real correction happens, at least I know that there is a reason to potentially propel that stock upward after the fall. Just a thought when stock picking.

    Small corrections are still more probable than big ones in my view. At least for now. Of course, my risk tolerance is very high, and I don't recommend anyone to buy speculative stocks without understanding the risks.
    Jul 26 12:51 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing The Puerto Rican Lottery With Doral Financial Shares [View article]
    DRL 75% up yesterday guys. Congrats to all that profited on it. I didn't have the nerve to take that risk. It was the PR lottery like Zvi said.
    Jul 3 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Puerto Rico: Severe Economic Trends Cloud Fiscal Solution [View article]
    Mr Craig Van Pelt, PR averages about 2.5 murders/day, not 100/week. Can you imagine having a 100 murders per weekend? Lord have mercy. It's hard to understand how a person that lived 18 yrs in the island could post a number like that.

    The year has 52 weeks, so 52 * 100 = 5,200 murders/year. Not even the most violent city in the world, Caracas Venezuela, has so many murders. Crime rate in PR is high in the metro area though. I will make the same assumption the other commenter did, that you really meant that once in a while 10 murders in a weekend can happen.
    Jun 17 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Halloween In June [View article]
    Haha yes, it takes time, and a LOT of money, but it's all worth it and very interesting nonetheless. Just not long ago it was discovered that the universe is being expanded by dark energy (which nobody really understands yet), the Higgs boson was discovered (which needed a multi-billion dollar particle accelerator to be found), and it was concluded that the matter that compose us and everything we know only amounts to 5% of the whole universe (the rest is "hidden" and it's just being uncovered). There is so much complexity. I'm very hopeful though, regarding molecular biology. The CRISPR-Cas 9 complex seems to be the real deal for gene editing. I call it "genetic engineering on steroids". I hope we can all benefit from it before we die. Some smart guys already cured mice from a genetic disease by correcting a mutated DNA base pair in a liver gene. If that is not awesome, I don't know what it is.
    Jun 2 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halloween In June [View article]
    Good for you and great trade!
    Jun 2 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halloween In June [View article]
    "A general response to classic uncertainty is to design many different time dependent strategies."

    I think that's very true, specially when it gets increasingly difficult to find obvious "bargains". To me, a catalyst adds great risk mitigation to a trade. It's easier when there's a driver, be it a sector-wide trend, a future development or an important event. I like an extra reason to buy besides the fundamentals.

    "Currently, the ghost of the real estate bubble still haunts the collective psyche."

    True true, it will take time, both psychologically and on housing recovery. Right now we are more on a "rental nation" state, which I don't think is a bad thing really, as it improves the mobility of the work force.

    "At a deeper level, it's all part of an undecipherable fractal, which becomes more elusive when we attempt to understand by simply looking at the last few iterations."

    Difficult, but not impossible to understand the clues. Real root causes are more complex to catch, but the "why" is not always as important. Developing meaningful prognosis is the tricky part.

    "But, ponder this, as we either allow or merely witness heavy concentrations of leverage become ever more centralized, what risks are placed on the entire human eco system? Is there not a point where issues of domestic tranquility and national security become merged with the overall concentrate?"

    IMHO I don't think the magnitude of the operation really adds risk or potential instability to the system as a whole, as in the end the switching of assets is generating profits for the FED (and transferred to the Treasury) with a large part of the holdings most probably left to mature.
    Jun 2 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Halloween In June [View article]
    I agree in the sense that I wouldn't go short on this market. I like the idea of taking some profits off the table and then put them back on short-term technical dips. The hold and buy on dips strategy is sill working and most probably will continue to work until there is no more monetary easing IMHO.
    Jun 2 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halloween In June [View article]
    SA for me it's a place that I use to organize my thoughts through writing, also to learn ideas and strategies from others and to share mine. Any ideas are very welcomed if you can share them.


    As a fun variant (talking specifically about risk sentiment in the consumer sector), sometimes I check the oversold/overbought levels of the TIF:WMT ratio. It occurred to me one day, "hey, why not use jewelry and unnecessary expensive stuff vs cheap basic goods?" Kind of a wealthy effect measurement (or impulsive buyer vs prudent buyer if you will). So I tried Tiffany vs Walmart. Right now for example, the ratio is very overbought. Sometimes I check retail, restaurants, etc
    Jun 2 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halloween In June [View article]
    It has been definitely an abnormal period where risk-off sentiment has been answered by indifference in the big cap segment. Persistent allocation into low-beta, dividend-growing equity may have something to do with it.
    May 31 03:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halloween In June [View article]
    Thank you John. Awesome pick for you. You hit the nail on the head at the right time with that one. Do you usually hold levered ETF's for long periods?
    May 31 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing The Puerto Rican Lottery With Doral Financial Shares [View article]
    LOL

    Lots of people are leaving PR, so I don't think that's going to be a problem for PR.
    However, a counterweight on the east coast is needed when beach festivals start in the west...
    May 17 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing The Puerto Rican Lottery With Doral Financial Shares [View article]
    Truffel, I see you're a biochemist. Do you invest/trade on speculative biotechs? Do you have something in mind? Let me know

    I'm on ONCS again, hoping for a nice end of May. ASCO is coming. The first time I was fortunate to make a 150%+ profit in about 4 months. I should have made 200%+ but didn't sell when I had to. Woulda, coulda, shoulda right? But that's OK, a nice profit anyway.

    I'm always looking for quality opinions from guys like you who have the education and/or the experience on the matter.

    Just recently BMY announced some of their presentation for ASCO about their new son: Nivolumab (anti PD1). They are trying it in combination with the already approved ipilimumab (Yervoy) in trials. Results were a little disappointing for kidney and non-small-cell lung cancer. Response rate was 22%; rate of adverse events was 48%. Disappointing in the sense that people were expecting more out of this incredible PD1-PD1L mechanism.

    This is another reason why many think ONCS could continue to be best-in-class, because electroporation has the ability to covert immunogenic tumors into responders. They will try anti-PD1's too and I think they'll get better results because of this. Better results than the big guys.

    But anyway, for this year (and I'm looking for a short-term trade right now), I think results for their 3 phase II trials (Merkel Cell Carcinoma, Metastatic Melanoma, Cutaneous T-Cell Lymphoma) are going to be good. They use the IL-12 cytokine, not the substance itself, but the plasmid DNA.

    So, what we have here is a small market cap stock, filled with pending catalysts, with good technicals, no debt, no SAE's (lower IL-12 concentrations means fewer side effects) with good results (and systemic results) from a great platform and with direct delivery (injection) of something that has been proven to work (also helped by a proven technology: electroporation). The combination seems to work like a charm. I think next week the stock can shoot up again leading into ASCO. A possible negative on the stock could be future dilution speculation after the rise.

    That's my pitch in a nutshell. Let me know what you think. I'm long BLRX too. Considering adding more shares of SPHS and BLRX.
    May 17 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing The Puerto Rican Lottery With Doral Financial Shares [View article]
    Yes Zvi, I think BPOP could end up buying DRL assets. It's a very real possibility.

    I used to have a very nice link about bank stress and ratios that I can't find now. It included many banks, including the ones that went bust. It was an ongoing study by some university. Once the banks get over certain limit on the ratio, I think they are on a FDIC "watch list". Banks on the island used to be way over the national average on that ratio. It's so long since I invest in any bank that I can't remember though. It would be interesting to see where BPOP stands now...
    May 17 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing The Puerto Rican Lottery With Doral Financial Shares [View article]
    Nice haha. I had to learn to do it myself to calm my cravings!

    ...y que buena historia la tuya, de mudarte desde Alemania a PR wow

    Tu español es muy bueno de hecho
    May 17 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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