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DNA Decoder

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  • Another Smoke And Mirrors Rally? [View article]
    Market's waiting for Ben words...
    Jun 20 02:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Rally Will End This Week [View article]
    I agree with the article. I see a high probability of a pulldown in the stock market soon.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 20 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This High-Growth Company Is A Good Addition To Any Portfolio [View article]
    Greetings guys, I hope you're all doing well. Almost 10 months have passed since I started a position in TGE. The timing was horrendous. The stock has been a fiasco. I totally underestimated the weakness of the seismic market. Only thing good out of 2013 was the 1st quarter. After this, no matter how hopeful the CEO sounds, it's a gamble to try to forecast what will happen next.

    Having said that, I bought some shares today @ $5.70. I'm gambling here based on a backlog of about 60 millions (about half the market cap), possible 10 to 12 crews working and hopefully a very low capex for decent fcf. 1st Qtr report is April 28 early morning I think (verify numbers and date). Good luck with your other investments. I've been very focused on biotech picks lately. So far so good...
    Apr 17 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Facebook Pay The Right Price For WhatsApp? [View article]
    Well, FB offered $3 billion to snapshat and they couldn't get it, so I guess they were willing to go farther away this time. Let's say whatsapp gets to about 1.4 billion users and about 70% of them pay the fee after 1st year... that would mean that increasing its annual price to $2 would yield 2 billion in revenue/year if consumer loyalty is not severed. That amounts to $4 billion in revenue in just 2 years... the same amount spent in cash, while keeping the app clean from ads and adding a powerful competitor to your portfolio. Payroll expense is minimum with just 55 employees. The inherent risk here would be... what if somebody else comes up with something better for free? This space moves ridiculously fast.
    Feb 20 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nobel Laureates Fama And Shiller Duel Over Bubbles [View article]
    Bubbles are much more easier to spot via identification of huge divergences in inter-market trends and market components mechanics. The hard part is to know when it will pop.
    Nov 25 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Not Give In To Icahn [View article]
    "...such actions are destructive when shares are bought close to the peak"

    Seriously Ashraf? Close to the peak?
    Oct 17 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This High-Growth Company Is A Good Addition To Any Portfolio [View article]
    Hey Michael, yes I'm still holding.

    TGE tends to be a rollercoaster. It has been going down during 2nd/3rd Q's and going up during 4th/1st Q's for the last couple of years. It's very seasonal.

    Technicals still look awful, but IMHO, anything below $8 is a very good buy. In fact, I like it better than ever. Like you said, oil has been over $100 for a while. We are mid October already, that means more demand for natgas will be here soon. I think it's time to buy, not sell. Then again, I tend to have too much love for risky stocks sometimes. I would love to hear that 15 crews will be online for the 4th or 1st Q. Will see.

    Beatiful growth and value numbers right now.
    Oct 15 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Minutes: Committee comfortable with initiation of taper [View news story]
    "Well, blaming the Fed is perfectly viable..."

    No. You choose what to do; and you can not make trading decisions solely based on economic fundamentals. The market is not the economy.

    "...when the Fed manipulates risk asset markets directly, it can choose to favor one side or the other, and it does so arbitrarily"

    Not arbitrarily. Not even close.

    "And I am sure you don't deny that buying $85 billion per month in risk assets has a HUGE impact..."

    $85 billions in MBS's and treasuries. Treasuries are not risky assets.
    Aug 21 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Mythical Taper: Why It Is Unlikely To Happen And Why It Is Not The Main Concern [View article]
    Mea culpa Han, you did mention some of it and I understand the point about repeating info in consecutive articles. I like to assess future expectations in numbers and trends, and it seems that I'm a little obsessive about it.
    Aug 20 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology's CEO Discusses Q2 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Exactly. Nice post.

    Shares are going down mostly because of future dilution and reverse split. To expect a stock to go up after the company suggests it will commit these 2 mortal sins is delusional. Stock going down now is totally normal.

    Disclosure: I own shares, and I'm planning on buying more at some point
    Aug 12 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Why You Should Buy Today's Panic Selling [View article]
    The compounding effect of reinvested dividends adds no value if the principal keeps bleeding. The stock may bounce on a technical oversold extreme, but if the long term trend continues to favor higher rates, it's a very risky proposition.
    Jul 6 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spar Group: A Growth Company At A Still Very Reasonable Price [View article]
    Nice call Igor!
    Jun 28 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mixed Signals: To Buy Or Not To Buy? [View article]
    Recent notes:
    - YoY nationwide business bankruptcy filings fell 25% in May
    - Weekly mortgage application volume up 5%
    - Weekly refinance volume up 5%
    - Initial claims down to 334K
    - Retail sales up 0.6%
    - Business inventories up 0.3%
    Jun 13 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Rubicon Ahead Of Cyclical And Secular Upturn [View article]
    I am curious about how the screen visibility would be affected if sapphire where to be used. It may be hard to see under the sun, as Al2O3 refractive index is around 1.7. How will they treat the material (or add impurities?) to overcome high reflection?

    Another thing to watch is the short float (it's around 30%).

    Also, material price is still a major concern because the smartphones price competition is getting extremely fierce, so companies will be forced to keep the pressure on finding ways to reduce expenses to maintain margins.
    Jun 5 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This High-Growth Company Is A Good Addition To Any Portfolio [View article]
    Although I think the 2nd Q results will be key, I just initiated a position in TGE @ 8.36 to wet my feet. Also initiated a position in CAM @ $60.18
    Jun 4 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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