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Doctor Dividend  

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  • Bancolombia: Buy This Fast-Growing Bank At 5-Year Lows [View article]

    Thank you for the idea. As I was scouring the presentation, the latest earnings report, and their recommended dividend increase, here is what I put together:

    They are recommending to raise the dividend to 830 pesos, a 7% increase.

    It looks like they are trying to keep the dividend around a 40% payout ratio.

    The problem lies in the conversion ratio. Being a US based investor, the dividend totaled $1.62 in 2013; 1.53 in 2014, and because of the current exchange rate, it would be $1.25 for 2015.

    Since I look at dividend yield range, I see CIB undervalued at a 4% yield, or the share price gets to $31 based on $1.25 dividend for 2015. So for now, I will wait on the sidelines. If Mr. Market becomes truly irrational and dips to about $33, I might nibble knowing you have the two variables that could both project this higher. Similar to PM, the exchange rate currently makes this look worse than it is, but once the tides change, things will look beyond incredible.

    Mar 19, 2015. 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Can This Growth Stock Be A Dividend Champion? [View article]
    That's April 1, 2016.
    Mar 9, 2015. 09:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Common Errors Of A Dividend Growth Forecast [View article]

    Really great article. Thanks so much. Although this focuses on dividend growth and the errors of investors ways, the most interesting stat you gave was the no bias results. The annualized returns were still over 10% without needing some deep thought. How many filters did you need for that screen? Three? It still intuitively tells me to fish only in this part of the pool than go for the NFLX and TSLA of the investing world.

    Mar 3, 2015. 02:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fastenal: A Wide-Moat High-Growth Play With A Dividend Approaching 3% [View article]
    Don't forget to then compare MSM, HDS, and possibly WSO to get the whole industry.
    Feb 20, 2015. 07:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Use GasLog Partners To Build Income [View article]

    It says on the one slide that even though GLOP is giving distributions like an MLP, it is being treated as a C-Corp, like Dynagas. Is that correct or am I misinterpreting?
    Feb 17, 2015. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Income Growth' Vs. 'Dividend Growth' - The Re-Match [View article]

    Thanks for the discussion. Two/three questions come to mind:

    1) Are these all monthly payers? I'll admit I'm too lazy to look up every investment that is listed.

    2) Would this be smarter with less investments? Like any ETF/CEF/mutual fund, some are more heavily weighted doing more of the leg work overall. You have a whole bunch that are less than 2% invested. Are they really helping you with that small a percentage to the whole pie?

    3) To piggy back on #2, would a near equal weight via income distributed be a more risk-diversifying approach? So 33 investments each contributing 3% to the income generated. (So yes, you would invest more money in A to get the same income output vs B).

    Just thinking out loud.

    Feb 6, 2015. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preferred Stock Dividend Growth [View article]
    Not any company can do preferreds. I know banks and REITS are allowed to, and maybe one or two other categories, but read up on Doug De Lu to get an idea of which companies can. It's a small group.

    Jan 27, 2015. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Earnings Replete With Boots, Spider Webs, Cats And Dogs And Silver Linings [View article]

    Thanks for that link. Living in Texas and going through a divorce, the key line in that article is "personally owned pipelines." Because they are personally owned and not a mega corporation, there is a personal goodwill that is not included in valuing assets strictly for divorce. So, the judge was saying that a VERY large percentage of the goodwill that was attached to the pipelines is because of the gentleman himself and not because of the business. Hence, for divorce purposes, we are valuing the combined estate at $248 million and the ex-wife cannot split the assets of the marriage on $1.86 billion.

    The man got his money's worth from that lawyer.

    Jan 23, 2015. 09:43 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEFL January Dividend Gives Yield Of 23% [View article]
    I'm with hk. But you are correct, you can't use January's distribution because that is from December which includes specials and the previous components. 29 of the new 30 are monthly dividend payers, so yes, you can multiply 8 out of the 12 months in advance.

    For the one quarterly payer, include that with the other 29 payers and multiply by 4.

    I know it sounds like semantics, but we are dealing with a high yielding instrument with a ton of moving parts. I guess we will see with the February distribution who is closer, which I am guessing will be $.2962. It is still a 16.5% yield moving forward so it's nothing to sneeze at, but is a 30% difference in yield from your prediction.
    Jan 12, 2015. 03:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEFL January Dividend Gives Yield Of 23% [View article]

    I did not use the yearly component. I did this like the author I looked at the index. How many share equivalents they were using for the weight. I plugged in the monthly distribution for every stock (except the one quarterly holdout) in the index on my spreadsheet. Stripped out the year end special, which is what the January 2015 distribution is using. And then did the calculation exactly as Lance does it. I got $3.72 for the forward 12 months (Feb 2015-January 2016), excluding any specials that may occur because they are special.

    So you have 3 people that have 3.72, 3.75, and 3.93 as there new estimates, which is quite a bit less than $4.35 as you have estimated. The only way I am investing in this is if most of the components are near their max historical discount. I haven't looked since the new reorganization of the index, but there wasn't enough margin of safety for me to invest yet, if ever.

    Jan 12, 2015. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEFL January Dividend Gives Yield Of 23% [View article]

    I have a small portion in DVHL. The problem I have with it is I can't find a new rebalance of what the components are in it. I can find them as of September 2013 (!!!) but if you can find something as of 12/31/2014, please let me know the link. Some of the big MLPs that have cut their distributions should now be out of the index.

    Jan 12, 2015. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEFL January Dividend Gives Yield Of 23% [View article]

    How did you get $4.35? I explained my reasoning several comments up above that I see $3.72 as the forward dividend, excluding any special dividends. Are you including the specials?

    I have no skin in the game with this stock, but like the concept and enjoy trying to guess what it will be. With the massive reshuffling, I don't have as much confidence to invest in it.

    Jan 9, 2015. 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEFL January Dividend Gives Yield Of 23% [View article]

    I like to try and figure this stuff out and I get a different calculation versus yours. Only one, EDD, has been a quarterly dividend payer. All others are monthly. So, projecting forward, 8 months should be around .296 cents per dividend and the months where EDD is included should be at .3367. I am not trying to include special dividends as they only come once a year anyway. So, (8*.2962)+(4*.3367) = $3.72 as a forward dividend. Based on today's closing price of 22.42, the forward yield is around 16.58%.

    I am only doing my best guess, so don't hold me liable to my calculations. I am sure Prof. Lance can see if I am in the ballpark.

    Jan 8, 2015. 11:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Generating A Candidate List For 2015 [View article]
    From the list and what I believe to be undervalued, my thoughts are the following:

    CVX, COP, OXY are the big oil to play. (Family owns CVX)

    Picks and shovels: HP and ESV (got killed on ESV, but if you have a long timeframe, I think they are the best in off shore. I do think HP is a better balance sheet overall)

    BBL is the riskier pick but long run, I see the tide turning back in their favor (Do own that)

    Financials: BNS is the best of the big Five Canadian

    Sleeper Pick: SBSI (own in numerous accounts). Why? Small and flexible, in the healthy economy of Texas, expanding their base to the big cities of Dallas, Fort Worth, and Austin, dividend raiser, additional 5% stock dividend every year, AND a variable bonus dividend. Not a ten bagger in three years but one that you don't have to worry about either.

    Dec 28, 2014. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa Or MasterCard For Your Retirement Portfolio? [View article]
    Agree with you Chuck. What are the big processing companies?
    Paypal (soon to be on its own)
    Square (private, but how big is it really?)
    ApplePay (probably a rounding error for any of these companies)

    Considering the majority of the globe still does not do electronic transactions;
    considering both companies are now able to compete in China;
    considering these two companies combined are 75-80% of the market, I just wish I really understood that and wasn't blinded by the puny dividend 5 years ago.

    If I were these companies, I would just have an internal doctrine that we raise the dividend 20% per year until our payout ratio is 45%. Then we reexamine what is a comfortable payout ratio going forward. KMI called their shot with 10% dividend growth moving forward. WMB and TRGP have done the same. HP - because they shot up a ridiculous amount from a small base over two years, you have no idea what they plan on doing next. Keep it steady and that share price will follow. My family will be with these companies moving forward for many, many years to come.

    Dec 28, 2014. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment