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DoctoRx

 
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  • Gilead Update: Good News Keeps On Coming; Much Higher Share Prices Appear Justified
    Mon, Sep. 8 GILD 95 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead is becoming an investment icon, and the stock has soared the past few years.
    • That puts a burden on the company to continue to provide upside surprises.
    • This article attempts to make the case that this is happening, and that Gilead's shares are still attractive.
  • Challenging Consensus On PCSK9 Inhibitors: Focus On Regeneron And Amgen
    Mon, Sep. 8 REGN 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Amgen has filed for approval the first of a new class of proteins to lower LDL cholesterol.
    • These PCSK9 inhibitors are expected to see Amgen's evolocumab and Regeneron/Sanofi's alirocumab reach market within a year.
    • Enough information has been released to allow preliminary analysis of the commercial potential of these drugs and the entire class.
    • One factor to consider is insider accumulation at Regeneron.
  • Why I Bought Into Monday's Move In Regeneron
    Tue, Aug. 26 REGN 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Regeneron has just announced a surprise data release on its main pipeline drug over the Labor Day weekend.
    • I speculate that the news will be favorable.
    • The stock is acting well and Regeneron has been doing well operationally.
    • Valuation may explain why there is a decent short position on the stock, but the shorts may be getting uncomfortable now.
  • The Taper Of QE, And Other Reasons To Be Bullish On Bonds
    Mon, Aug. 25 EDV, IEF, TLH 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Consensus is that the Fed's ending of QE takes away buying power from bonds and should therefore be accompanied by rising interest rates.
    • The history and practical aspects of QE do not support this view.
    • Other factors make me tend toward the bond-bullish camp, though unfortunately high real interest rates are absent, so this is a speculative position rather than a fundamentally-based one.
  • An Analysis Of Amgen
    Fri, Aug. 22 AMGN 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Amgen has a balanced mix of mature blockbusters, new products and a diverse pipeline.
    • Despite more than doubling in the past few years, its absolute and relative valuation metrics could increase further.
    • The turnaround in R&D and a new focus on marketing could allow it to grow profits rapidly in the next several years, giving the stock very large upside potential.
  • Gilead: Rising Short Interest Provides Yet Another Reason To Own The Stock
    Fri, Aug. 15 GILD 62 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead Sciences is succeeding beyond the wildest dreams of its bulls as of only eight months ago.
    • Its forward P/E is low relative to the market, thus incorporating caution about the sustainability of profits from its hepatitis C franchise.
    • Yet the shorts have established a significant and growing position in the shares.
    • I take that fact to be yet another attractive feature of GILD shares, especially in view of the latest newsflow on Gilead.
  • Supernus Finding Success, Looks Undervalued
       • Fri, Aug. 15 SUPN 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Supernus is a niche pharmaceutical company that brought two products to market last year.
    • It announced an upside surprise this week.
    • An intelligent business plan allows investors more than one way for the stock to appreciate substantially.
  • United Therapeutics: A Low P/E Biotech With Potential For Further Rapid Growth
       • Tue, Aug. 12 UTHR 6 Comments

    Summary

    • United Therapeutics recently reported strong Q2 results.
    • Investors have worried about possible generic competition to its lead product, but the company argues it will likely lose little business should it come to pass.
    • A strong pipeline, debt-free finances, and experienced management make this 10X P/E company's stock interesting, with the launch of Orenitram providing upside potential.
    • The imminent freedom from paying a 10% royalty fee on its lead products adds to the upside potential in this stock.
    • Several risks are present, including a probe of UTHR's marketing by the Office of the Inspector General.
  • The Case That Regeneron May Be Significantly Undervalued
    Fri, Aug. 8 REGN 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Regeneron announced an upside surprise for sales of its lead product Eylea this week.
    • It has a powerful pipeline and important collaborations with Sanofi and Bayer HealthCare.
    • The combination of high R&D spending and elevated pre-launch expenses for its late-stage cholesterol reducer alirocumab means that P/E is the wrong metric investors should look at.
  • The Case That Our Investment Dollars Will Be Treated Well In Dollar Tree Stock
    Wed, Jul. 30 DLTR 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Dollar Tree has been a very successful company that has grown both by growth and acquisition.
    • It has announced a transformational deal, a merger with/acquisition of Family Dollar.
    • I view this deal as promising, especially in view of the two year consolidation in DLTR that has brought its P/E down from its 2012 peak.
  • A Re-Analysis Of Gilead After Q2 Results And The Early Idelalisib Approval
    Editors' Pick • Thu, Jul. 24 GILD 63 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead Sciences announced Wednesday that it had another great quarter.
    • Sovaldi sales met all but the very most optimistic projections.
    • The rest of the company is also in gear.
    • A large short position and strong business prospects make Gilead a stock that I find to be very attractive, especially in a high-P/E market.
  • Biogen Idec Beats And Raises: Reassessing Its Prospects
    Wed, Jul. 23 BIIB 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Biogen Idec crushed sales and earnings estimates in Q2.
    • The stock has surged but remains off its highs of this winter.
    • With robust growth ahead and a leader in a secular growth field, Biogen Idec is, I believe, an attractive stock at current levels in the $330-$340 range.
  • Biotechs Have Their 'Irrational Exuberance' Moment: Time To Buy More?
    Mon, Jul. 21 ALXN, AMGN, BBH 22 Comments

    Summary

    • The Fed has now complained of overvaluation amongst smaller biotech stocks.
    • On this news, large cap biotechs were slammed as well.
    • This is reminiscent of Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" comments in late 1996, a great buying opportunity.
  • Evaluating Biogen Idec After The Sell-Off
    Mon, Jul. 21 BIIB 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Biogen Idec sold off last week on Federal Reserve concerns about valuation in smaller biotechs.
    • This large company generates large amounts of cash, despite spending heavily on R&D.
    • This article explains why I look at Biogen Idec as a core holding within the biotech universe.
  • Buying Big Blue On A Clean Quarter And Record Q2 EPS
    Editors' Pick • Fri, Jul. 18 IBM 48 Comments

    Summary

    • IBM had a clean quarter, with a mild EPS beat and a sales beat.
    • It reiterated and possibly slightly upgraded guidance for the second half.
    • Several parts of its business may have bottomed, and the partnership with Apple may suggest new creative thinking at IBM.
    • The shares now look attractive to me, though a turnaround has not happened yet.
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Still Dominates; Buying The Sell-Off
    Thu, Jul. 17 TSM 34 Comments

    Summary

    • Taiwan Semiconductor sold off sharply after reporting a seemingly good quarter with good guidance for the rest of 2014.
    • Some current news regarding competition may have led to profit-taking following its strong stock performance the past several months.
    • This article reviews where I see TSM now and reiterates the bullish view of the stock I first propounded three months ago.
  • It May Be Time For Yahoo's Board To Shop The Company
    Wed, Jul. 16 YHOO 48 Comments

    Summary

    • Yahoo! is a famous name that is always trying to turn around.
    • It has reported a disappointing Q2 and forecast a weak Q3.
    • My take is that the company may be worth more dead than alive, and the board should solicit bids.
  • The Investment Case For Everest Re, A Low-Beta Reinsurer
       • Tue, Jul. 15 RE 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Everest Re has been a strong performer in its 19 years as a public entity.
    • The stock has strong value characteristics.
    • Analysts and successful value funds both give RE two thumbs up, yet few individual investors own this name.
  • Verizon Provides A Positive Pre-Announcement; Why I Think The Stock Could Surprise To The Upside
    Editors' Pick • Fri, Jul. 11 VZ 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Verizon Communications has commented positively about its Q2 results.
    • It sounds as though operations were strong in several areas.
    • The ongoing surprise in longer-term interest rates may make Verizon stock appreciate nicely.
  • A Pre-Earnings Update On Gilead
    Thu, Jul. 10 GILD 48 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead Sciences is a, or perhaps the, leading antiviral company with several other areas of focus now.
    • Quarterly earnings are pending soon, but they may not reflect or predict the longer-term value of Gilead shares.
    • Recent developments continue to keep me bullish on this company's future, some of which are discussed herein.
  • Making The Case For Teva
    Mon, Jul. 7 TEVA 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Teva Pharmaceuticals has been in stagnation mode for several years.
    • Its lead profit center, Copaxone, is under imminent threat from generics.
    • Yet, it has turnaround characteristics, and Copaxone may turn out better than feared.
    • Overall, I rate TEVA as a reasonable "buy" here to gain exposure to secular growth trends at a low valuation, with the possibility of a takeover if operations go poorly.
  • Portola: A Small Biotech Stock That Could Double - And Then Double Again
       • Wed, Jul. 2 PTLA 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Portola Pharmaceuticals is an 11-year old biotech-biopharma company operating in the heme-onc field.
    • Its specific area of focus involves Factor Xa inhibition.
    • Its most exciting product is andexanet, a universal antidote to bleeding caused by inhibiting Factor Xa.
    • While there are numerous and serious risks, the upside from andexanet appears reasonably well-defined to me.
  • Why This Bear On IBM Is Moving Toward A Bullish Posture
    Editors' Pick • Wed, Jun. 25 IBM 42 Comments

    Summary

    • IBM stock has become controversial, with the bears getting aggressive and going against lots of fervent supporters of the shares.
    • IBM shares have massively underperformed the market over the past two years, and their time may be coming.
    • Yet, the fundamentals suggest the stock could well be overvalued and that IBM could lead a fresh bear market to the downside, if the current bull market gives way.
    • Because of IBM's worsening underperformance plus fundamental factors, I have moderated my bearishness on IBM, and I'm now looking and hoping for a reason to go long this name.
  • Vertex Soars On Phase III Trial Results: Assessing The Upside Potential From Here
    Wed, Jun. 25 VRTX 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Vertex Pharmaceuticals announced positive results from Phase 3 trials of a combination regimen for cystic fibrosis.
    • The stock has soared, and the company trades at a very high multiple of current sales.
    • Vertex has had disappointing outcomes with prior drug products it developed, but it may be poised for significant success now.
  • Analyzing The Hepatitis C Market Size: Why It May Have Bullish Implications For Gilead
    Mon, Jun. 23 GILD 73 Comments

    Summary

    • Hepatitis C has suddenly changed from a chronic illness to a curable one.
    • Given that it is much more prevalent than HIV, the market opportunity to provide the cures is large.
    • This article discusses some of the many variables that affect investing decisions in approaching this market, with emphasis on the market leader, Gilead Sciences.
  • Same Stuff, Different Quarter: Oracle Is Attractive Again After An Earnings-Related Sell-Off
    Fri, Jun. 20 ORCL 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Oracle has missed sales and EPS expectations.
    • Yet, the stock is a free cash flow king, and is fighting to gain ascendancy in high-growth areas.
    • Founder and CEO Larry Ellison rarely sells, and I want to invest alongside him.
  • Why This Physician Is Bullish On Celgene
    Thu, Jun. 19 CELG 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Celgene has been one of the great growth stocks of our era.
    • The company has a bulging pipeline on which it is overtly bullish, and management has earned respect.
    • Based on prospective earnings by 2017, the stock is undervalued.
    • In addition, CELG could be an attractive takeover target.
  • Stock Market And Housing Stock Implications Of Trends In Lumber Prices
    Mon, Jun. 9 ITB, XHB, SPY 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Lumber prices have been declining, as have those for panels.
    • Since the Great Recession ended, similar declines have preceded stock market sell-offs accompany the end of QE.
    • Thus the question arises as to whether the end of QE, due this fall, will mark a market top.
  • Is There Too Much Complacency In The Stock Market?
    Mon, Jun. 9 SPY, DIA, QQQ 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Many bears, short sellers and potentially objective news reporters keep saying there is too much complacency.
    • Others say this is the most hated bull market in history, so we should be bullish.
    • This article reviews matters and concludes that stocks are indeed risky, but great companies are still selling for reasonable prices; I want to continue to own them.
  • Financial Stresses Appear In Fracking Companies: Investment Implications
    Sun, Jun. 1 ARII, GBX, HP 44 Comments

    Summary

    • Boom times in oil and gas production via fracking may be giving way to some degree of a bust cycle.
    • Bloomberg News has very recently been publicizing its findings about these problems.
    • Macroeconomic considerations now come into play, given the importance of domestic energy production via unconventional means.
  • Con Ed Provides Income, Safety, And - Surprise! - Price Appreciation Potential
    Thu, May. 29 ED 19 Comments

    Summary

    • This article evaluates Con Ed as an undervalued dividend stock.
    • ED is one of the safest stocks in Value Line's universe of 1700 major companies.
    • Transitory events may have depressed the shares to below fair value.
  • Recent Developments In Gilead's Non-Hepatitis C Programs
    Editors' Pick • Tue, May. 27 GILD 78 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead Sciences has had so much publicity over Sovaldi that investors may be paying insufficient attention to the rest of the company.
    • This article updates readers about new developments at Gilead.
    • The news flow suggests to me that the upswing in the stock price may have strong "legs".