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The Case For A Trading Shift From Stocks To Treasuries
- Several trading points suggest to me that a risk-off approach is timely.
- These include Fear & Greed details and the reporting on very aggressive corporate buyback activity.
- Meanwhile, the structural bull market in Treasuries may have pulled back to an attractive technical level.
Is It Safe To Buy Treasuries Yet?
- Interest rates have retraced some of their very strong declines recently.
- This article examines their fundamental and technical posture and concludes that both remain sound.
- Ideas related to specific bond market investments are proposed.
The Real Importance Of The Apple Car Project
- Apple appears to be developing an automobile.
- Blooomberg News now reports it could come to market in five years.
- This may be a more important development than "merely" representing a very large market opportunity.
- The real point of this is that Apple may want to become a design and marketing company for all sorts of products that are connected to the Internet.
- This grand strategy will give Apple the optimal chance to stay on top as the Internet of Things begins its inevitable ascent.
Celgene: A Follow-Up To My Bullish Article Of Last Spring
- Celgene stock has appreciated strongly since I reviewed it last June.
- These price gains appear justified based on improving earnings and a strengthened pipeline.
- This article reviews some of the growth drivers for Celgene and discusses certain valuation metrics.
Why Regeneron's Risk-Reward Looks Good Again
- Regeneron reported strong sales of its flagship product Eylea on Tuesday; the shares sold off mildly.
- This is probably because of an EPS disappointment.
- However, Eylea's prospects are robust and the pipeline has made unanticipated progress recently.
- Thus, I am bullish on the stock again given its price decline of about 40 points from its December peak.
More Good News: Update On Portola As The Stock Pushes Toward All-Time Highs
- Portola Pharmaceuticals has two late-stage potential blockbusters that could hit the market next year and the year after; they address related medical problems.
- Each of those products has had positive news recently.
- A third potentially major product has just been moved into the clinical trial stage.
- I find risky Portola shares to be attractive.
Comments On Gilead's Quarter And The Road Ahead
- Gilead offered a mixed bag of results last week.
- The fourth quarter beat expectations, but guidance for 2015 surprised to the downside.
- Margin pressure in hepatitis C treatments was surprisingly intense; the hep C market may have less revenue potential than what was thought.
- Strong cash flows and a robust pipeline continue to make Gilead's shares appear attractive to me.
Some Pre-Earnings Release Observations About Gilead Sciences
- Gilead's stock has lagged the hot biotech sector the last few months.
- Yet its low current P/E, easily explained by the gigantic step-up in earnings that Sovaldi brought it last year, may be set to increase.
- This article discusses recent events about the company and its competition from AbbVie in hepatitis C, and discusses things I'm looking for in Tuesday's earnings report and conference call.
Trinity Industries: Legal And Business Update, With Discussion Of A Bullish Investment Thesis
- Trinity is the leading railcar manufacturer and lessor in the United States.
- Legal peril has pushed the stock to a relatively low valuation versus its competitors; all are depressed to the collapse in the price of oil.
- Due to the potential for a favorable legal outcome as well as a rebound in the price of oil, a large snapback rally in TRN might be coming.
New Reason Appears For Yahoo Investors To Fear Alibaba's Business Structure
- Much of Yahoo's value still ties into its ownership of Alibaba's stock.
- Foreign ownership issues of Chinese securities came into question recently, possibly snaring major U.S. institutional investors.
- This brings up the issue of the corporate structure of Alibaba and its VIE issues.
- This article looks back at some of the considerations of VIEs and finds reason to be concerned about them.
- In addition, both Yahoo and Alibaba have been seeing declining EPS estimates, and as high P/E stocks, that topic also is problematic for investors.
Gilead: A Bullish Update
- Gilead's stock has been flat for months, in part due to worries about competition from AbbVie in the hepatitis C virus treatment space.
- My guess is that the negative newsflow has ended with AbbVie's marketing approval in the EU for its combination treatment for hepatitis C.
- Gilead has certain patent and other risks, but overall it now appears to represent unusually good value relative to its peers.
Are Housing Stocks Ready To Rock Or Roll Over?
- Housing stocks have begun to recover from the bubble and crash of last decade.
- Some individual homebuilders have attractive fundamentals, but none of the stocks are cheap.
- Some difficult portents from industry leaders make me wary of the sector for the short term.
- Longer term, positive factors may come together to make the sectors lead the market once more.
A Potentially Optimal Long Tactic For Treasury Bond Investors
- Oil prices and inflation are rapidly receding, yet speculative shorts continue to lose money in the Treasury bond futures market.
- They also continue to lose money staying long crude oil as it undergoes an epic price collapse.
- This article reviews the fundamentals behind the bond move, finds them solid enough to stay long the bond, and discusses possible trading strategies.
Is A Bullish 'Perfect Storm' Brewing In Treasury Bonds?
- Multiple bits of evidence of deflation or near-deflation are now surfacing.
- Interest rates have been declining, yet the near-universal prognosis is for them to rise.
- This may well be the classic 'wall of worry' that all strong bull markets must surmount at some point.
- This article suggests Treasury bonds may be attractive both to investors and savers seeking safety with income as well as to speculators seeking capital gains.
DoctoRx Positions For 2015: I Have Cut Back On My Exposure To All Biotech Substantially
- Catalysts for biotech include disappointing economic growth, breakthrough products, and more publicity about advances coming from the sector.
- The oncology field is crowded and has gotten a bit impenetrable for non-oncologists.
- The most exciting "platform" trend is using advanced biopharmaceutical techniques to develop orally-available molecules that work acceptably in large numbers of people.
- I have cut back my exposure to all biotech substantially. The field is immensely complicated, burdened by litigation, full of exciting possibilities, and littered with investment minefields.
AbbVie Versus Gilead In Hepatitis C, With Comments On Biotech
- AbbVie has received approval of its widely-anticipated hepatitis C combination, called Viekira Pak.
- This regimen has a high cure rate but certain issues when given with a number of other drugs, and has less convenient dosing than Gilead's Harvoni.
- Express Scripts is dropping Gilead's Harvoni from its National Preferred Formulary as of January 1, 2015.
Deflation Now? If So, Cash Is No Longer Trash: Discussion And Implications
- The U.S. may be slipping from disinflation to mild deflation.
- This deflation may be largely "good" deflation.
- Even if that's the case, implications for cash and equities may be profound.
Investing And Trading Implications Of The Great Oil Bust Of 2014: Time To Buy The Dip?
- The ongoing price war in crude oil is a huge story with widespread ramifications for financial market participants.
- I've been a long-time observer of and occasional investor in the energy sector, and an outspoken bear this year on oil prices.
- My take on the oil patch is that this could be an epic bust with farther to go on the downside, but interesting trading and investment opportunities now exist.
Still Bullish On Bonds: Analysis And A Forecast
- Interest rates have been in a downtrend ever since the Fed announced the Taper a year ago.
- The cessation of the Taper has been associated with pronounced deflationary events.
- For the above and other reasons, my out-of-consensus bullish view on bonds continues.
- This article summarizes new bullish evidence to support the case for high quality fixed-income investments, preferably Treasuries.
My Bearish Views On Oil Prices Prove Accurate: What Next?
- Oil has appeared overpriced to me since April.
- All that really has happened in my view is that oil has followed the trend of other commodities.
- This article explores the evolution of this crash and reports on recent news that continues to support a cautious, though not necessarily bearish, attitude toward the oil patch.
Why A Merck Clinical Trial May Help Amgen And Regeneron Shares To Set Higher Highs
- Last week, a major potential headwind turned into a tailwind for potential "PCSK9 inhibitor" blockbusters from Amgen and Regeneron/Sanofi.
- The good news was that Merck's IMPROVE-IT cholesterol study supported the "LDL hypothesis" upon which these PCSK9 inhibitors rely.
- I have an out-of-consensus bullish view on the probable profit potential from this new drug class, which is expected to come to market next year.
Regeneron Plunges In What Barron's Calls A Significant Disappointment: My Analysis
- Regeneron missed some analysts' expectations for sales and EPS, sparking a nearly 6% sell-off in the shares.
- Barron's jumped on the bearish bandwagon.
- Yet the bull case for Regeneron continues to strengthen, as this article discusses.
Is AbbVie's Bullishness On Its Hepatitis C Drugs Valid?
- AbbVie remains bullish on its prospects to compete with Gilead Sciences in treating hepatitis C, genotype 1.
- This article reviews certain AbbVie clinical data and raises questions about whether its bullishness is well-founded.
- My opinion is that Gilead appears to be well-positioned to dominate hepatitis C treatment for years to come.
United Therapeutics Sells Off On Good News - Why I Bought That Dip
- United Therapeutics sold off from a high level after reporting a strong quarter that marginally missed consensus sales expectations.
- More important is the good news that the company foreshadowed on its conference call.
- UTHR is an unusually low P/E stock given its high historical growth rates and prospects for strong growth in the next few years.
Gilead Beats And (Sort Of) Raises, Stock Drops: What Gives?
- Gilead reported Q3 earnings, which were fine.
- The stock sold off several percent after hours, though from near-record levels.
- Between the earnings report and management's comments on the conference call, my bullish view of the company and the shares remains intact.
Amgen And Regeneron Reach All-Time Highs Together: Updates On Both Biotech Stalwarts
- Amgen and Regeneron are the two companies that have filed for marketing approval for their drugs to lower cholesterol via the PCSK9 pathway.
- Each company has numerous strengths.
- Recent data have given additional force to the uptrends of their stocks.
A Review Of Gilead's Harvoni, And Competitive Considerations
- Last Friday, Gilead Sciences received FDA marketing approval for Harvoni, its two-drug combination product for hepatitis C genotype 1.
- Harvoni is a breakthrough treatment for this serious disease.
- Harvoni's Prescribing Information reveals that a course of treatment with Harvoni is safe, easy to comply with, and highly effective.
- My view is that Harvoni plus Sovaldi is a formidable product line that will be difficult for AbbVie and others to compete against.
Why I'm Not Buying The Dip In Domestic Energy Stocks
- Oil has entered a bear market.
- Speculators on the futures exchange have held to a strong bullish posture, however.
- Domestic energy plays have taken big hits in the stock market, and right now I am standing clear of these stocks, even those of high quality companies.
Additional Bullish Portents For Treasuries
- Enough news has occurred in less than a week to document it in another article on Treasuries.
- To me, this news provides accelerating positive arguments for lower Treasury rates, though this is not a day-to-day timing call.
- All this is consistent with the Taper following the pattern set at the end of QE 1 and QE 2.
'Bullish On Bonds' - An Update
- Treasury bonds may be well-positioned to rally further as QE ends, surprising consensus.
- This would reprise their action after QE 1 and QE 2 ended.
- Recent data affecting bonds is favorable as I see it.
- This article updates my case for interest rate bullishness from late August.
Update: Portola Reports Positive Phase 3 Results And A Secondary Stock Offering
- Two material events have moved shares of development-stage Portola in opposing directions.
- First, the company reported strongly positive results in its first Phase 3 study of its anticoagulant reversal agent, andexanet - and the stock jumped.
- After announcing the good news, a secondary stock offering was announced, priced under the market price at the time - and the stock dropped (then popped).
- The positive Phase 3 data was in line with my expectation expressed in my July article.
- The equity raise was not previously addressed by me, but the need for additional capital should be no surprise, and I remain long this risky stock with patience.
The Importance Of TAF To Gilead
- Gilead reported positive Phase 3 results last week on its new version of tenofovir, an anti-viral agent for HIV and hepatitis B.
- The results were better than expected, with my analysis a statistically-nonsignificant trend toward the new drug, TAF, being more effective than the existing version of tenofovir.
- I expect that TAF will be a cornerstone of Gilead's efforts to sustain its dominance in the anti-HIV market for many years to come.
- The success of TAF represents a rarity in Big Pharma, namely a life-cycle management version of a major drug that is an important improvement over the existing drug.