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Deflation Now? If So, Cash Is No Longer Trash: Discussion And Implications
- The U.S. may be slipping from disinflation to mild deflation.
- This deflation may be largely "good" deflation.
- Even if that's the case, implications for cash and equities may be profound.
Investing And Trading Implications Of The Great Oil Bust Of 2014: Time To Buy The Dip?
- The ongoing price war in crude oil is a huge story with widespread ramifications for financial market participants.
- I've been a long-time observer of and occasional investor in the energy sector, and an outspoken bear this year on oil prices.
- My take on the oil patch is that this could be an epic bust with farther to go on the downside, but interesting trading and investment opportunities now exist.
Still Bullish On Bonds: Analysis And A Forecast
- Interest rates have been in a downtrend ever since the Fed announced the Taper a year ago.
- The cessation of the Taper has been associated with pronounced deflationary events.
- For the above and other reasons, my out-of-consensus bullish view on bonds continues.
- This article summarizes new bullish evidence to support the case for high quality fixed-income investments, preferably Treasuries.
My Bearish Views On Oil Prices Prove Accurate: What Next?
- Oil has appeared overpriced to me since April.
- All that really has happened in my view is that oil has followed the trend of other commodities.
- This article explores the evolution of this crash and reports on recent news that continues to support a cautious, though not necessarily bearish, attitude toward the oil patch.
Why A Merck Clinical Trial May Help Amgen And Regeneron Shares To Set Higher Highs
- Last week, a major potential headwind turned into a tailwind for potential "PCSK9 inhibitor" blockbusters from Amgen and Regeneron/Sanofi.
- The good news was that Merck's IMPROVE-IT cholesterol study supported the "LDL hypothesis" upon which these PCSK9 inhibitors rely.
- I have an out-of-consensus bullish view on the probable profit potential from this new drug class, which is expected to come to market next year.
Regeneron Plunges In What Barron's Calls A Significant Disappointment: My Analysis
- Regeneron missed some analysts' expectations for sales and EPS, sparking a nearly 6% sell-off in the shares.
- Barron's jumped on the bearish bandwagon.
- Yet the bull case for Regeneron continues to strengthen, as this article discusses.
Is AbbVie's Bullishness On Its Hepatitis C Drugs Valid?
- AbbVie remains bullish on its prospects to compete with Gilead Sciences in treating hepatitis C, genotype 1.
- This article reviews certain AbbVie clinical data and raises questions about whether its bullishness is well-founded.
- My opinion is that Gilead appears to be well-positioned to dominate hepatitis C treatment for years to come.
United Therapeutics Sells Off On Good News - Why I Bought That Dip
- United Therapeutics sold off from a high level after reporting a strong quarter that marginally missed consensus sales expectations.
- More important is the good news that the company foreshadowed on its conference call.
- UTHR is an unusually low P/E stock given its high historical growth rates and prospects for strong growth in the next few years.
Gilead Beats And (Sort Of) Raises, Stock Drops: What Gives?
- Gilead reported Q3 earnings, which were fine.
- The stock sold off several percent after hours, though from near-record levels.
- Between the earnings report and management's comments on the conference call, my bullish view of the company and the shares remains intact.
Amgen And Regeneron Reach All-Time Highs Together: Updates On Both Biotech Stalwarts
- Amgen and Regeneron are the two companies that have filed for marketing approval for their drugs to lower cholesterol via the PCSK9 pathway.
- Each company has numerous strengths.
- Recent data have given additional force to the uptrends of their stocks.
A Review Of Gilead's Harvoni, And Competitive Considerations
- Last Friday, Gilead Sciences received FDA marketing approval for Harvoni, its two-drug combination product for hepatitis C genotype 1.
- Harvoni is a breakthrough treatment for this serious disease.
- Harvoni's Prescribing Information reveals that a course of treatment with Harvoni is safe, easy to comply with, and highly effective.
- My view is that Harvoni plus Sovaldi is a formidable product line that will be difficult for AbbVie and others to compete against.
Why I'm Not Buying The Dip In Domestic Energy Stocks
- Oil has entered a bear market.
- Speculators on the futures exchange have held to a strong bullish posture, however.
- Domestic energy plays have taken big hits in the stock market, and right now I am standing clear of these stocks, even those of high quality companies.
Additional Bullish Portents For Treasuries
- Enough news has occurred in less than a week to document it in another article on Treasuries.
- To me, this news provides accelerating positive arguments for lower Treasury rates, though this is not a day-to-day timing call.
- All this is consistent with the Taper following the pattern set at the end of QE 1 and QE 2.
'Bullish On Bonds' - An Update
- Treasury bonds may be well-positioned to rally further as QE ends, surprising consensus.
- This would reprise their action after QE 1 and QE 2 ended.
- Recent data affecting bonds is favorable as I see it.
- This article updates my case for interest rate bullishness from late August.
Update: Portola Reports Positive Phase 3 Results And A Secondary Stock Offering
- Two material events have moved shares of development-stage Portola in opposing directions.
- First, the company reported strongly positive results in its first Phase 3 study of its anticoagulant reversal agent, andexanet - and the stocked jumped.
- After announcing the good news, a secondary stock offering was announced, priced under the market price at the time - and the stock dropped (then popped).
- The positive Phase 3 data was in line with my expectation expressed in my July article.
- The equity raise was not previously addressed by me, but the need for additional capital should be no surprise, and I remain long this risky stock with patience.
The Importance Of TAF To Gilead
- Gilead reported positive Phase 3 results last week on its new version of tenofovir, an anti-viral agent for HIV and hepatitis B.
- The results were better than expected, with my analysis a statistically-nonsignificant trend toward the new drug, TAF, being more effective than the existing version of tenofovir.
- I expect that TAF will be a cornerstone of Gilead's efforts to sustain its dominance in the anti-HIV market for many years to come.
- The success of TAF represents a rarity in Big Pharma, namely a life-cycle management version of a major drug that is an important improvement over the existing drug.
Gilead Update: Good News Keeps On Coming; Much Higher Share Prices Appear Justified
- Gilead is becoming an investment icon, and the stock has soared the past few years.
- That puts a burden on the company to continue to provide upside surprises.
- This article attempts to make the case that this is happening, and that Gilead's shares are still attractive.
Challenging Consensus On PCSK9 Inhibitors: Focus On Regeneron And Amgen
- Amgen has filed for approval the first of a new class of proteins to lower LDL cholesterol.
- These PCSK9 inhibitors are expected to see Amgen's evolocumab and Regeneron/Sanofi's alirocumab reach market within a year.
- Enough information has been released to allow preliminary analysis of the commercial potential of these drugs and the entire class.
- One factor to consider is insider accumulation at Regeneron.
Why I Bought Into Monday's Move In Regeneron
- Regeneron has just announced a surprise data release on its main pipeline drug over the Labor Day weekend.
- I speculate that the news will be favorable.
- The stock is acting well and Regeneron has been doing well operationally.
- Valuation may explain why there is a decent short position on the stock, but the shorts may be getting uncomfortable now.
The Taper Of QE, And Other Reasons To Be Bullish On Bonds
- Consensus is that the Fed's ending of QE takes away buying power from bonds and should therefore be accompanied by rising interest rates.
- The history and practical aspects of QE do not support this view.
- Other factors make me tend toward the bond-bullish camp, though unfortunately high real interest rates are absent, so this is a speculative position rather than a fundamentally-based one.
An Analysis Of Amgen
- Amgen has a balanced mix of mature blockbusters, new products and a diverse pipeline.
- Despite more than doubling in the past few years, its absolute and relative valuation metrics could increase further.
- The turnaround in R&D and a new focus on marketing could allow it to grow profits rapidly in the next several years, giving the stock very large upside potential.
Gilead: Rising Short Interest Provides Yet Another Reason To Own The Stock
- Gilead Sciences is succeeding beyond the wildest dreams of its bulls as of only eight months ago.
- Its forward P/E is low relative to the market, thus incorporating caution about the sustainability of profits from its hepatitis C franchise.
- Yet the shorts have established a significant and growing position in the shares.
- I take that fact to be yet another attractive feature of GILD shares, especially in view of the latest newsflow on Gilead.
Supernus Finding Success, Looks Undervalued
- Supernus is a niche pharmaceutical company that brought two products to market last year.
- It announced an upside surprise this week.
- An intelligent business plan allows investors more than one way for the stock to appreciate substantially.
United Therapeutics: A Low P/E Biotech With Potential For Further Rapid Growth
- United Therapeutics recently reported strong Q2 results.
- Investors have worried about possible generic competition to its lead product, but the company argues it will likely lose little business should it come to pass.
- A strong pipeline, debt-free finances, and experienced management make this 10X P/E company's stock interesting, with the launch of Orenitram providing upside potential.
- The imminent freedom from paying a 10% royalty fee on its lead products adds to the upside potential in this stock.
- Several risks are present, including a probe of UTHR's marketing by the Office of the Inspector General.
The Case That Regeneron May Be Significantly Undervalued
- Regeneron announced an upside surprise for sales of its lead product Eylea this week.
- It has a powerful pipeline and important collaborations with Sanofi and Bayer HealthCare.
- The combination of high R&D spending and elevated pre-launch expenses for its late-stage cholesterol reducer alirocumab means that P/E is the wrong metric investors should look at.
The Case That Our Investment Dollars Will Be Treated Well In Dollar Tree Stock
- Dollar Tree has been a very successful company that has grown both by growth and acquisition.
- It has announced a transformational deal, a merger with/acquisition of Family Dollar.
- I view this deal as promising, especially in view of the two year consolidation in DLTR that has brought its P/E down from its 2012 peak.
A Re-Analysis Of Gilead After Q2 Results And The Early Idelalisib Approval
- Gilead Sciences announced Wednesday that it had another great quarter.
- Sovaldi sales met all but the very most optimistic projections.
- The rest of the company is also in gear.
- A large short position and strong business prospects make Gilead a stock that I find to be very attractive, especially in a high-P/E market.
Biogen Idec Beats And Raises: Reassessing Its Prospects
- Biogen Idec crushed sales and earnings estimates in Q2.
- The stock has surged but remains off its highs of this winter.
- With robust growth ahead and a leader in a secular growth field, Biogen Idec is, I believe, an attractive stock at current levels in the $330-$340 range.
Biotechs Have Their 'Irrational Exuberance' Moment: Time To Buy More?
- The Fed has now complained of overvaluation amongst smaller biotech stocks.
- On this news, large cap biotechs were slammed as well.
- This is reminiscent of Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" comments in late 1996, a great buying opportunity.
Evaluating Biogen Idec After The Sell-Off
- Biogen Idec sold off last week on Federal Reserve concerns about valuation in smaller biotechs.
- This large company generates large amounts of cash, despite spending heavily on R&D.
- This article explains why I look at Biogen Idec as a core holding within the biotech universe.
Buying Big Blue On A Clean Quarter And Record Q2 EPS
- IBM had a clean quarter, with a mild EPS beat and a sales beat.
- It reiterated and possibly slightly upgraded guidance for the second half.
- Several parts of its business may have bottomed, and the partnership with Apple may suggest new creative thinking at IBM.
- The shares now look attractive to me, though a turnaround has not happened yet.
Taiwan Semiconductor Still Dominates; Buying The Sell-Off
- Taiwan Semiconductor sold off sharply after reporting a seemingly good quarter with good guidance for the rest of 2014.
- Some current news regarding competition may have led to profit-taking following its strong stock performance the past several months.
- This article reviews where I see TSM now and reiterates the bullish view of the stock I first propounded three months ago.