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DoctoRx  

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  • The Case For A Trading Shift From Stocks To Treasuries
    Tue, Mar. 3 ED, EDV, IEF 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Several trading points suggest to me that a risk-off approach is timely.
    • These include Fear & Greed details and the reporting on very aggressive corporate buyback activity.
    • Meanwhile, the structural bull market in Treasuries may have pulled back to an attractive technical level.
  • Is It Safe To Buy Treasuries Yet?
    Fri, Feb. 20 TLT 78 Comments

    Summary

    • Interest rates have retraced some of their very strong declines recently.
    • This article examines their fundamental and technical posture and concludes that both remain sound.
    • Ideas related to specific bond market investments are proposed.
  • The Real Importance Of The Apple Car Project
    Fri, Feb. 20 AAPL 172 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple appears to be developing an automobile.
    • Blooomberg News now reports it could come to market in five years.
    • This may be a more important development than "merely" representing a very large market opportunity.
    • The real point of this is that Apple may want to become a design and marketing company for all sorts of products that are connected to the Internet.
    • This grand strategy will give Apple the optimal chance to stay on top as the Internet of Things begins its inevitable ascent.
  • Celgene: A Follow-Up To My Bullish Article Of Last Spring
    Tue, Feb. 17 CELG 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Celgene stock has appreciated strongly since I reviewed it last June.
    • These price gains appear justified based on improving earnings and a strengthened pipeline.
    • This article reviews some of the growth drivers for Celgene and discusses certain valuation metrics.
  • Why Regeneron's Risk-Reward Looks Good Again
     • Fri, Feb. 13 REGN 38 Comments

    Summary

    • Regeneron reported strong sales of its flagship product Eylea on Tuesday; the shares sold off mildly.
    • This is probably because of an EPS disappointment.
    • However, Eylea's prospects are robust and the pipeline has made unanticipated progress recently.
    • Thus, I am bullish on the stock again given its price decline of about 40 points from its December peak.
  • More Good News: Update On Portola As The Stock Pushes Toward All-Time Highs
     • Fri, Feb. 13 PTLA 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Portola Pharmaceuticals has two late-stage potential blockbusters that could hit the market next year and the year after; they address related medical problems.
    • Each of those products has had positive news recently.
    • A third potentially major product has just been moved into the clinical trial stage.
    • I find risky Portola shares to be attractive.
  • Comments On Gilead's Quarter And The Road Ahead
    Editors' Pick • Wed, Feb. 11 GILD 126 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead offered a mixed bag of results last week.
    • The fourth quarter beat expectations, but guidance for 2015 surprised to the downside.
    • Margin pressure in hepatitis C treatments was surprisingly intense; the hep C market may have less revenue potential than what was thought.
    • Strong cash flows and a robust pipeline continue to make Gilead's shares appear attractive to me.
  • Some Pre-Earnings Release Observations About Gilead Sciences
    Editors' Pick • Mon, Feb. 2 GILD 129 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead's stock has lagged the hot biotech sector the last few months.
    • Yet its low current P/E, easily explained by the gigantic step-up in earnings that Sovaldi brought it last year, may be set to increase.
    • This article discusses recent events about the company and its competition from AbbVie in hepatitis C, and discusses things I'm looking for in Tuesday's earnings report and conference call.
  • Trinity Industries: Legal And Business Update, With Discussion Of A Bullish Investment Thesis
    Editors' Pick • Wed, Jan. 21 TRN 62 Comments

    Summary

    • Trinity is the leading railcar manufacturer and lessor in the United States.
    • Legal peril has pushed the stock to a relatively low valuation versus its competitors; all are depressed to the collapse in the price of oil.
    • Due to the potential for a favorable legal outcome as well as a rebound in the price of oil, a large snapback rally in TRN might be coming.
  • New Reason Appears For Yahoo Investors To Fear Alibaba's Business Structure
    Tue, Jan. 20 YHOO, BABA 73 Comments

    Summary

    • Much of Yahoo's value still ties into its ownership of Alibaba's stock.
    • Foreign ownership issues of Chinese securities came into question recently, possibly snaring major U.S. institutional investors.
    • This brings up the issue of the corporate structure of Alibaba and its VIE issues.
    • This article looks back at some of the considerations of VIEs and finds reason to be concerned about them.
    • In addition, both Yahoo and Alibaba have been seeing declining EPS estimates, and as high P/E stocks, that topic also is problematic for investors.
  • Gilead: A Bullish Update
    Fri, Jan. 16 GILD 223 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead's stock has been flat for months, in part due to worries about competition from AbbVie in the hepatitis C virus treatment space.
    • My guess is that the negative newsflow has ended with AbbVie's marketing approval in the EU for its combination treatment for hepatitis C.
    • Gilead has certain patent and other risks, but overall it now appears to represent unusually good value relative to its peers.
  • Are Housing Stocks Ready To Rock Or Roll Over?
    Thu, Jan. 15 HD, HOV, LEN 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Housing stocks have begun to recover from the bubble and crash of last decade.
    • Some individual homebuilders have attractive fundamentals, but none of the stocks are cheap.
    • Some difficult portents from industry leaders make me wary of the sector for the short term.
    • Longer term, positive factors may come together to make the sectors lead the market once more.
  • A Potentially Optimal Long Tactic For Treasury Bond Investors
    Wed, Jan. 14 EDV, IEF, SPY 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Oil prices and inflation are rapidly receding, yet speculative shorts continue to lose money in the Treasury bond futures market.
    • They also continue to lose money staying long crude oil as it undergoes an epic price collapse.
    • This article reviews the fundamentals behind the bond move, finds them solid enough to stay long the bond, and discusses possible trading strategies.
  • Is A Bullish 'Perfect Storm' Brewing In Treasury Bonds?
    Editors' Pick • Tue, Jan. 6 EDV, IEF, IEI 79 Comments

    Summary

    • Multiple bits of evidence of deflation or near-deflation are now surfacing.
    • Interest rates have been declining, yet the near-universal prognosis is for them to rise.
    • This may well be the classic 'wall of worry' that all strong bull markets must surmount at some point.
    • This article suggests Treasury bonds may be attractive both to investors and savers seeking safety with income as well as to speculators seeking capital gains.
  • DoctoRx Positions For 2015: I Have Cut Back On My Exposure To All Biotech Substantially
    Editors' Pick • Dec. 30, 2014 EW, GILD, CELG 45 Comments

    Summary

    • Catalysts for biotech include disappointing economic growth, breakthrough products, and more publicity about advances coming from the sector.
    • The oncology field is crowded and has gotten a bit impenetrable for non-oncologists.
    • The most exciting "platform" trend is using advanced biopharmaceutical techniques to develop orally-available molecules that work acceptably in large numbers of people.
    • I have cut back my exposure to all biotech substantially. The field is immensely complicated, burdened by litigation, full of exciting possibilities, and littered with investment minefields.
  • AbbVie Versus Gilead In Hepatitis C, With Comments On Biotech
    Dec. 22, 2014 GILD 218 Comments

    Summary

    • AbbVie has received approval of its widely-anticipated hepatitis C combination, called Viekira Pak.
    • This regimen has a high cure rate but certain issues when given with a number of other drugs, and has less convenient dosing than Gilead's Harvoni.
    • Express Scripts is dropping Gilead's Harvoni from its National Preferred Formulary as of January 1, 2015.
  • Deflation Now? If So, Cash Is No Longer Trash: Discussion And Implications
    Dec. 16, 2014 ED, EDV, GCC 30 Comments

    Summary

    • The U.S. may be slipping from disinflation to mild deflation.
    • This deflation may be largely "good" deflation.
    • Even if that's the case, implications for cash and equities may be profound.
  • Investing And Trading Implications Of The Great Oil Bust Of 2014: Time To Buy The Dip?
    Dec. 11, 2014 GBX, HP, LYB 37 Comments

    Summary

    • The ongoing price war in crude oil is a huge story with widespread ramifications for financial market participants.
    • I've been a long-time observer of and occasional investor in the energy sector, and an outspoken bear this year on oil prices.
    • My take on the oil patch is that this could be an epic bust with farther to go on the downside, but interesting trading and investment opportunities now exist.
  • Still Bullish On Bonds: Analysis And A Forecast
    Dec. 9, 2014 EDV, GCC, IEF 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Interest rates have been in a downtrend ever since the Fed announced the Taper a year ago.
    • The cessation of the Taper has been associated with pronounced deflationary events.
    • For the above and other reasons, my out-of-consensus bullish view on bonds continues.
    • This article summarizes new bullish evidence to support the case for high quality fixed-income investments, preferably Treasuries.
  • My Bearish Views On Oil Prices Prove Accurate: What Next?
    Dec. 4, 2014 DBC, GCC, SU 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Oil has appeared overpriced to me since April.
    • All that really has happened in my view is that oil has followed the trend of other commodities.
    • This article explores the evolution of this crash and reports on recent news that continues to support a cautious, though not necessarily bearish, attitude toward the oil patch.
  • Why A Merck Clinical Trial May Help Amgen And Regeneron Shares To Set Higher Highs
    Nov. 26, 2014 AMGN 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week, a major potential headwind turned into a tailwind for potential "PCSK9 inhibitor" blockbusters from Amgen and Regeneron/Sanofi.
    • The good news was that Merck's IMPROVE-IT cholesterol study supported the "LDL hypothesis" upon which these PCSK9 inhibitors rely.
    • I have an out-of-consensus bullish view on the probable profit potential from this new drug class, which is expected to come to market next year.
  • Regeneron Plunges In What Barron's Calls A Significant Disappointment: My Analysis
    Nov. 6, 2014 REGN 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Regeneron missed some analysts' expectations for sales and EPS, sparking a nearly 6% sell-off in the shares.
    • Barron's jumped on the bearish bandwagon.
    • Yet the bull case for Regeneron continues to strengthen, as this article discusses.
  • Is AbbVie's Bullishness On Its Hepatitis C Drugs Valid?
    Nov. 4, 2014 GILD 161 Comments

    Summary

    • AbbVie remains bullish on its prospects to compete with Gilead Sciences in treating hepatitis C, genotype 1.
    • This article reviews certain AbbVie clinical data and raises questions about whether its bullishness is well-founded.
    • My opinion is that Gilead appears to be well-positioned to dominate hepatitis C treatment for years to come.
  • United Therapeutics Sells Off On Good News - Why I Bought That Dip
    Oct. 30, 2014 UTHR 10 Comments

    Summary

    • United Therapeutics sold off from a high level after reporting a strong quarter that marginally missed consensus sales expectations.
    • More important is the good news that the company foreshadowed on its conference call.
    • UTHR is an unusually low P/E stock given its high historical growth rates and prospects for strong growth in the next few years.
  • Gilead Beats And (Sort Of) Raises, Stock Drops: What Gives?
    Oct. 29, 2014 GILD 54 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead reported Q3 earnings, which were fine.
    • The stock sold off several percent after hours, though from near-record levels.
    • Between the earnings report and management's comments on the conference call, my bullish view of the company and the shares remains intact.
  • Amgen And Regeneron Reach All-Time Highs Together: Updates On Both Biotech Stalwarts
    Oct. 23, 2014 AMGN 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Amgen and Regeneron are the two companies that have filed for marketing approval for their drugs to lower cholesterol via the PCSK9 pathway.
    • Each company has numerous strengths.
    • Recent data have given additional force to the uptrends of their stocks.
  • A Review Of Gilead's Harvoni, And Competitive Considerations
    Oct. 15, 2014 GILD 76 Comments

    Summary

    • Last Friday, Gilead Sciences received FDA marketing approval for Harvoni, its two-drug combination product for hepatitis C genotype 1.
    • Harvoni is a breakthrough treatment for this serious disease.
    • Harvoni's Prescribing Information reveals that a course of treatment with Harvoni is safe, easy to comply with, and highly effective.
    • My view is that Harvoni plus Sovaldi is a formidable product line that will be difficult for AbbVie and others to compete against.
  • Why I'm Not Buying The Dip In Domestic Energy Stocks
    Oct. 15, 2014 TRN 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Oil has entered a bear market.
    • Speculators on the futures exchange have held to a strong bullish posture, however.
    • Domestic energy plays have taken big hits in the stock market, and right now I am standing clear of these stocks, even those of high quality companies.
  • Additional Bullish Portents For Treasuries
    Oct. 13, 2014 TLT 77 Comments

    Summary

    • Enough news has occurred in less than a week to document it in another article on Treasuries.
    • To me, this news provides accelerating positive arguments for lower Treasury rates, though this is not a day-to-day timing call.
    • All this is consistent with the Taper following the pattern set at the end of QE 1 and QE 2.
  • 'Bullish On Bonds' - An Update
    Oct. 9, 2014 TLT 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Treasury bonds may be well-positioned to rally further as QE ends, surprising consensus.
    • This would reprise their action after QE 1 and QE 2 ended.
    • Recent data affecting bonds is favorable as I see it.
    • This article updates my case for interest rate bullishness from late August.
  • Update: Portola Reports Positive Phase 3 Results And A Secondary Stock Offering
    Oct. 6, 2014 PTLA 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Two material events have moved shares of development-stage Portola in opposing directions.
    • First, the company reported strongly positive results in its first Phase 3 study of its anticoagulant reversal agent, andexanet - and the stock jumped.
    • After announcing the good news, a secondary stock offering was announced, priced under the market price at the time - and the stock dropped (then popped).
    • The positive Phase 3 data was in line with my expectation expressed in my July article.
    • The equity raise was not previously addressed by me, but the need for additional capital should be no surprise, and I remain long this risky stock with patience.
  • The Importance Of TAF To Gilead
    Oct. 3, 2014 GILD 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Gilead reported positive Phase 3 results last week on its new version of tenofovir, an anti-viral agent for HIV and hepatitis B.
    • The results were better than expected, with my analysis a statistically-nonsignificant trend toward the new drug, TAF, being more effective than the existing version of tenofovir.
    • I expect that TAF will be a cornerstone of Gilead's efforts to sustain its dominance in the anti-HIV market for many years to come.
    • The success of TAF represents a rarity in Big Pharma, namely a life-cycle management version of a major drug that is an important improvement over the existing drug.