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DoctoRx

 
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  • Johnson & Johnson Is Slightly Overvalued, Time To Sell This Drug Maker [View article]
    AAPL

    Consider GILD - moderately riskier but much cheaper, much faster growing, not weighed down by two slow-growth divisions.
    Jan 22, 2015. 08:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside For Gilead In 2015 [View article]
    floody, no such luck. You are right to ask, b/c there can be overlap. A classic example of that is Gilead's Viread. Alone, it treats hepatitis B. In combinations, it is a mainstay for HIV treatment.
    Jan 21, 2015. 11:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside For Gilead In 2015 [View article]
    gene-e, Imbruvica is being valued at more like $20 B or more. PCYC, which has rights to perhaps 1/2 of Imbruvica's value, is itself valued at $11 B net of cash and has a negligible pipeline. So you're right about all the many possibilities for GILD to create market value.

    Whether Imbruvica is "worth" its implied valuation is TBD, however, and that's an important point IMHO:

    As others have pointed out, one reason I've paid so much attention to GILD is that it appears to be one of the most reasonably valued stocks in a very highly valued market.
    Jan 21, 2015. 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside For Gilead In 2015 [View article]
    Courage, '632! PG is at 20X June 2016 estimates EPS at $81 B in projected sales for that FY.

    GILD is trading with no speculation embedded in its price, unlike most of its biotech/biopharma brethren. Its relative P/E should expand, meaning that if its peers keep anything like their current valuations, GILD's P/E "should" work higher over time. It is certainly possible that an "expected" EPS drop could occur as the massive earnings boost from hep C cures wears off. But that brings us to compare GILD to CELG at roughly 40X GAAP EPS and GILD's historical P/E of about 23X (per Value Line).

    IAC, I'm thinking of 2015 as a(nother) breakout year for GILD both on total sales, and the pipeline. There are several phase 2 projects that could move on phase 3 and raise the P/E, just as BIIB's moving of the Alzheimer's drug to phase 3 did the job for its stock - and that's a speculative project.

    But it doesn't really matter how the stock trades if management delivers. Mr. Buffett points out that his fave stock is one that just sits there, letting him buy more and more at a better and better valuation, then gets taken over at a gigantic premium. Not that GILD is going to get taken over, but the market ultimately weighs value; how the votes go in the interim is less important. Let other companies make 3-5 year sales projections and thereby pump their stocks. That's not what I like to see and I think I understand your thinking well enough that you're not overly big on that either. Over time, GILD's price will reflect its true value. Based on mgmt's track record, I'm still looking for a double from here in a reasonable length of time (and then ad astra). Here's hoping!
    Jan 21, 2015. 11:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why McDonald's Is Undervalued At Its Current Share Price [View article]
    Alex, "Mickey D" was the first stock I purchased coming out of the Great Recession (I sold in 2011). At this point, I'm again looking for safety. Thanks for the write-up and the head's-up about the CYT program - hope they can make a big winner of it.

    Some investors who want income from this name might consider a call-selling strategy against their long position, a strategy I see as especially well-suited for a self-directed IRA held with a discount broker or in a "wrap" account.
    Jan 21, 2015. 10:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Legal And Business Update, With Discussion Of A Bullish Investment Thesis [View article]
    Jim, that was an interesting follow-up. Thanks again!
    Jan 21, 2015. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Legal And Business Update, With Discussion Of A Bullish Investment Thesis [View article]
    DAG1996, thanks for reading and commenting. Congrats on getting your profit out of TRN and also drawing your own conclusions from the BBG reporting. Trinity is a "big boy" and over time, if the legal and other winds blow in directions that favor it, perhaps BBG will even out its coverage. GLTU/us re TRN.
    Jan 21, 2015. 07:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Reason Appears For Yahoo Investors To Fear Alibaba's Business Structure [View article]
    Ventureshadow, you have quite a way with words.

    You clearly know more about the Chinese co's than I do. As a close follower of the markets, and research from Muddy Waters and others, I developed a view of Chinese companies that in a broader sense was, as you have, filled with skepticism.

    Furthermore, even more broadly, I don't trust a single economic statistic out of the Chinese government - not that it's necessarily false, but I withhold my trust (agnostic). My guess is that it's deep in recession right now and that's why global commodites have gone into their depression (following the boom). And if China's in recession, that ultimately can't be good for a high P/E stock such as BABA.
    Jan 21, 2015. 06:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Legal And Business Update, With Discussion Of A Bullish Investment Thesis [View article]
    combat, thanks as always for reading and adding your thoughts, which I find very appropriate. My sense is that most individual investors, who are not fund managers looking to have a broad portfolio of many names, would find TRN to be too aggressive for their taste. As stated, I have a small core position which is a fraction of the large position I accumulated on the way up beginning in Oct. 2013, and I've bought more to trade.
    Jan 21, 2015. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Legal And Business Update, With Discussion Of A Bullish Investment Thesis [View article]
    jim, my point was what discount the railcar mfrs should have to the RRs, not that they should trade at parity on a full-cycle basis. The more business the RRs do, the more cars they need, and the more they need to keep them modern. Meanwhile TRN dominates the industry of building and leasing railcars; and, as I discussed early on in the article, the only important delta to the TRN share price relates to the railcar segment - it's that dominant and cyclical.

    One thing that TRN has that the RRs don't is the ability to sell internationally. I think that 15% of TRN's railcar business involves selling to Mexican RRs.

    IAC, your knowledge of the RR business is impressive. I have learned a lot from you, so please accept my thanks.
    Jan 21, 2015. 06:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Legal And Business Update, With Discussion Of A Bullish Investment Thesis [View article]
    SpoiledRotten: Great comment, great links - especially the second one.
    Thanks!

    All the best
    Doc
    Jan 21, 2015. 05:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Legal And Business Update, With Discussion Of A Bullish Investment Thesis [View article]
    concernedengineer, thanks very much for that link. That's helpful, and interesting.

    If there's "definitely" a safety issue, how could Trinity issue the press release I quoted from this month, saying that so far, the ET Plus is looking good on the safety testing?
    Jan 21, 2015. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pharmacyclics Has Moderate Upside And A Very Limited Downside [View article]
    Value Insight, you have addressed an important drug.

    It's unclear if you have justified a long investment thesis here, and you're not long PCYC yourself. PCYC has a limited pipeline, and Imbruvica is well-recognized as a great product - what's unclear is how much competition is coming...
    Jan 21, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Legal And Business Update, With Discussion Of A Bullish Investment Thesis [View article]
    101, I'm very glad to hear that you liked the article and found it thought-provoking, per your prior comment. I'm curious about what your investment thesis, if any, might be re TRN. I'm long and bought more yesterday and again today, mostly for trading, as I have a core position and my guess is that better (lower) prices lie ahead at some point as the railcar cycle turns down, as it generally has. A key part of my investment thesis is simply that the fear embodied in TRN's price has been overdone. Do you disagree? Do you think there's not enough fear of the ET Plus-related legal process(es) reflected in TRN's price?
    Jan 21, 2015. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Legal And Business Update, With Discussion Of A Bullish Investment Thesis [View article]
    jim, it's great that you found that and provided such a detailed commentary of it. Much appreciated.

    I'll look at it ASAP.

    All the best-
    Doc
    Jan 21, 2015. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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