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DoctoRx

 
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  • How To Beat The Market - My Best Large-Cap Stock Portfolio: Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Congrats on the nice 4-month return, Arie. Please keep us apprised of your future returns - GL!
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Stock Becoming The Ultimate Safe Haven [View article]
    techy46, what about the Mac and iTunes?

    Next up, Apple Watch and Apple Pay.

    Multiple hits, like Disney.
    Dec 14, 2014. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing And Trading Implications Of The Great Oil Bust Of 2014: Time To Buy The Dip? [View article]
    Jose, thanks for reading and adding your perspective as well as your kind comments. GLTU as well.

    Doc
    Dec 13, 2014. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing And Trading Implications Of The Great Oil Bust Of 2014: Time To Buy The Dip? [View article]
    Alex, you're welcome, glad you found the article stimulating. Interesting times!
    Dec 13, 2014. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toll Brothers: I Stay Cautious Despite Expected Continuation Of The Housing Recovery [View article]
    Thanks for the well-reasoned write-up. I agree TOL is not a compelling buy here. I'm long b/c it trades around 1.5X book value, which is roughly its long-term average valuation, and book has grown nicely over the years. TOL has had a market-beating total return vs the S&P 500 going back as far as I can go (into the 1980s). I expect that to continue.
    Dec 12, 2014. 05:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Cardiologist Really, Really Hearts Edwards Lifesciences [View article]
    EW had a better year than it forecast, and with that and with a super year for healthcare stocks, its price has soared far past my goals. I'm no longer in the name, having rotated to lower P/E stocks such as Gilead (GILD) or, it its upward phase, Trinity Industries (TRN).

    Business is strong, and likely the forecasts for 2015 are low. Even so, the stock is probably around 30X EPS for 2015. Competition is non-trivial, and margin pressure from insurers and governments is omnipresent. The major growth driver for Edwards beyond currently-marketed treatments appears to be a transcatheter mitral valve replacement (or repair device), but the company says that this is a very difficult undertaking. Investors should not expect such a product any time soon; there is also no guarantee that Edwards will be the market leader assuming such a product can be developed.

    My sense is that long-term holders of EW in taxable accounts can well hold the shares of this great company for the long term. For new money, though, I'm a little dubious that this is better than an average performer for 2015.
    Dec 12, 2014. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences' Stock Forecast: Algorithmic And Fundamental Analysis [View article]
    I'm not sure that the article adequately supported the unequivocal nature of the title.
    Dec 12, 2014. 04:02 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harvoni + Sovaldi scripts in line to hit consensus [View news story]
    The Liver Meeting that went thru Nov. 11 and then Thanksgiving held scripts back.
    I concur that leveraged longs in energy as well as EOY profit-taking have affected GILD.

    We'll know a lot more soon from ABBV.

    I would add that the ABBV lawsuit has induced some caution among GILD shareholders - perhaps some frightened GILD money has rotated over to CELG.
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toll Brothers Delivers Growth, But Not Enough For Investors [View article]
    Good writeup, I concur. TOL is now at about 1.5X tangible book value, not on the bargain counter, but a level that is attractive to patient money.

    Long TOL.
    Dec 12, 2014. 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing And Trading Implications Of The Great Oil Bust Of 2014: Time To Buy The Dip? [View article]
    rv3lynn, I definitely didn't remember $7.60 a barrel. Gasoline prices certainly did not reflect that! I think that following that crash, investors basically could stay out of oil patch stocks for about 4 years. Smart money is suggesting something similar now: http://bloom.bg/16er85T

    Excerpts:

    Stephen Schwarzman, the chairman of Blackstone Group LP (BX), said now is the best time in many years to invest in energy.

    “There are a lot of people who borrowed a lot of money based on higher price levels and they’re going to need more capital,” Schwarzman said Dec. 11 at a conference sponsored by the New York Times’ DealBook. “There are going to be restructurings to do. There’s going to be a fallout. It’s going to be one of the best opportunities we’ve had in many, many years.”

    And:

    Carlyle Group LP (CG), which has $6 billion to $7 billion available to deploy in energy, also sees the industry as more attractive now than it will probably be for the next five to 10 years, co-founder David Rubenstein said on Dec. 10.

    “This is a great time to buy,” Rubenstein said at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s financial-services conference in New York. “The bottom hasn’t been hit yet. Oil prices will probably stay low for a while.”
    Dec 12, 2014. 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Cardiologist Really, Really Hearts Edwards Lifesciences [View article]
    At $132.07 less than three months after Ventureshadow's comment with the stock around $102.50, I must say that I sold too soon. Edwards has exceeded its projections made at yearend 2013 and now sells at about 33X published consensus EPS for CY 2015. Even assuming that the company has another year of crushing estimates, the 'steady Eddie' nature of its business argues against assuming that it trades below 30X forward EPS.

    The next big growth driver for Edwards is some years away, namely a mitral valve transcatheter device, which will be an important commercial and medical breakthrough. There's no guarantee that Edwards will be first to market with such a device. There is obvious growth from the aortic valve transcatheter segment which is offset by slow growth in its conventional surgical valve business and its critical care monitoring business (where it maintains a dominant market share).

    I think that EW remains a strong hold for investors with taxable long-term gains and who have a long-term perspective. However, its valuation is a bit rich. The company is susceptible to competitive pressures, inflation of cost inputs, and pushback from payors on pricing. I do not see EW as other than an average stock for one-year price potential, given its elevated valuation and the outperformance it and the healthcare sector as a whole have enjoyed in 2014.
    Dec 12, 2014. 07:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing And Trading Implications Of The Great Oil Bust Of 2014: Time To Buy The Dip? [View article]
    Investor 7020: Many thanks!
    Dec 11, 2014. 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing And Trading Implications Of The Great Oil Bust Of 2014: Time To Buy The Dip? [View article]
    Small Pharma Analyst, thanks for reading and commenting. FWIW (not a lot), I'm not a big fan of MLPs in general, especially now given the immense multi-year run they have had. Many of them are little more than legal pyramid schemes. As an example, look what happened to KYN in the 2008 meltdown. The stock went from $35 in 2007 to under $14 at the bear market bottom, even though interest rates plunging should have been good for it - and people continued to use pipelines' services. But they couldn't sell new shares, and with markets frozen, the unsustainable nature of their payouts spooked the Street. At least, that's my take - tho I don't purport to be an expert on MLPs.
    Dec 11, 2014. 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing And Trading Implications Of The Great Oil Bust Of 2014: Time To Buy The Dip? [View article]
    Dividend Sleuth, you're very welcome. HP now has low insider ownership, and for what I think is the first time every, the CEO is not a Helmerich or a member of the family (I don't think Payne ever ran the company). So I would think the company would be open to a buyout.
    Dec 11, 2014. 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing And Trading Implications Of The Great Oil Bust Of 2014: Time To Buy The Dip? [View article]
    DeBunker, thanks for your kind words, and for the analogy to the 1998 oil bust. I had forgotten how bad that episode was for oil patch stocks. At that time, my investing world was all growth stocks all the time...
    Dec 11, 2014. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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