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  • Gilead Beats And Raises: Thinking Through The Future Of Its Business And Its Stock Price [View article]
    Thanks, Ptatty. I think that essentially all hep C treatment in the US is done by liver specialists or GI docs w an interest/expertise in liver, so they know all this. The result: 40% getting 8 weeks of treatment, and Gilead and FDA appear satisfied w the results.

    I still see no important controversy here. Real world, clinical results are what count. If results come in badly, the Harvoni label will certainly change. Clinical trials are performed to show the FDA a drug is reasonably safe/effective. What counts is what happens when real non-clin trial patients get treated. So far, apparently so good.
    Jul 30, 2015. 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Beats And Raises: Thinking Through The Future Of Its Business And Its Stock Price [View article]
    Actually have one in the development stage. It's a complicated little co, so it's not such a simple article to write.

    Still bullish, haven't sold...
    Jul 30, 2015. 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Beats And Raises: Thinking Through The Future Of Its Business And Its Stock Price [View article]
    But the governments aren't doing whatever they do for profit-oriented reasons. And ultimately, the Fed can simply print up whatever new funds the government wants to devote to anything at all, ranging from war to medical care for veterans etc.

    If ins co's wont take real risk, they should be neutered as they are in Germany, where they are mere pass-thru entities. No risk, no reward.
    Jul 30, 2015. 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Beats And Raises: Thinking Through The Future Of Its Business And Its Stock Price [View article]
    Nice to hear your thoughts that are in line w mine, canb. :-)
    Jul 30, 2015. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Beats And Raises: Thinking Through The Future Of Its Business And Its Stock Price [View article]
    Leader of the pack
    Jul 30, 2015. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Beats And Raises: Thinking Through The Future Of Its Business And Its Stock Price [View article]
    Agreed. Meanwhile, BBG to the rescue this AM?:
    http://tinyurl.com/oaa...
    Title:
    Gilead Won’t Run Out of Hep C Patients, or Dollars, Anytime Soon

    A voice of reason...
    Jul 30, 2015. 10:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regeneron's Mega-Blockbuster Potential With Praluent: CVS Health Sees It, So Why Don't More Analysts? [View article]
    Nice to see another REGN bull.

    One subtle point on which we may disagree: CVS benefits big-time from big pharamceutical spending. Its interests do not lie in cost control, but rather in a greater and greater % of GDP going to legal drugs.
    Jul 30, 2015. 08:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Beats And Raises: Thinking Through The Future Of Its Business And Its Stock Price [View article]
    erasner, thanks for reading and commenting. I am long AMGN but took some profits coming into earnings. The company has been seeing low quality "beats" due to non-GAAP earnings. Amgen reports AH today, so I anticipate writing a new article on the stock either for Friday or Monday.
    Jul 30, 2015. 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Beats And Raises: Thinking Through The Future Of Its Business And Its Stock Price [View article]
    thinkdifferent, thank you for that typically learned, thorough exegesis of several topics. Re the 8 week data, the PI makes it clear that cure rates in the relevant study were identical for low viral loads. In the real world, if failures were being noted disproportionately w the 8 week treatment, shouldn't Gilead have known that by now?

    A giant like Merck might have a different view of price competition, given its overriding interests in price discipline throughout its product line, than the spinoff from Abbott, which may have had a reputation as a more scrappy company. I and everyone else have been assuming that new entrants will get some business.

    Re Japan, it remains to be seen as to the pace of treatment. I do agree it should be rapid, as most of the hep C there is in the elderly as I understand it (related to needle sharing after WW II).
    Jul 30, 2015. 08:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Beats And Raises: Thinking Through The Future Of Its Business And Its Stock Price [View article]
    retired, you're welcome. Agree w the comments. Many commenters are extremely knowledgeable about the industry, Gilead specifically, and the relevant issues attendant to investing in whatever I'm writing about.
    Jul 30, 2015. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Beats And Raises: Thinking Through The Future Of Its Business And Its Stock Price [View article]
    Thanks for that very sensible and thorough reply, Ptatty.

    The pressure on prices that you refer to can also go in the other direction, i.e. insurers are booming. Let their profits take a big hit. Basically the big health insurers have turned into parasitic oligolopolistic money grubbers.
    Jul 30, 2015. 07:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Beats And Raises: Thinking Through The Future Of Its Business And Its Stock Price [View article]
    NVE$TOR, I agree w you that slow and steady wins the race, not growth a gogo, at least for GILD. Also, GILD mgmt may need to see some more clin trial and other data before deciding what strategic direction to go in w an acquisition strategy.

    Re GILD's price, the AAPL meme is spreading. Here is the WSJ from Thursday: "Gilead: the Apple of the Biotech World
    Stock is a rare example of value for investors in the sector"
    http://tinyurl.com/ncg...

    Maybe the WSJ reads Seeking Alpha?
    Jul 30, 2015. 07:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Beats And Raises: Thinking Through The Future Of Its Business And Its Stock Price [View article]
    CI, nice dream. If you're asking me my TP, what I said in the article is that I peg GILD's fair value right now at $144, based on what I think and hope is a conservative estimate of $16 B in revenues in H2. LT, at the top of the article and in the summary I talked about $200+ for the share price in a few years.
    Jul 30, 2015. 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Beats And Raises: Thinking Through The Future Of Its Business And Its Stock Price [View article]
    Newbie, on behalf of dothemathman, I/we thank you. :-)
    Jul 29, 2015. 10:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Beats And Raises: Thinking Through The Future Of Its Business And Its Stock Price [View article]
    From the Harvoni PI, page 23:

    The treatment difference between the 8-week treatment of HARVONI and 12-week treatment of HARVONI was –2.3% (97.5% confidence interval –7.2% to 2.5%). Among subjects with a baseline HCV RNA <6 million IU/mL, the SVR was 97% (119/123) with 8-week treatment of HARVONI and 96% (126/131) with 12-week treatment of HARVONI.

    Where's the controversy re low viral load 8 week treatment?
    Jul 29, 2015. 10:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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