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  • Multiple Observations On Celgene's Latest Licensing Deals, And Its Valuation [View article]
    retired, glad you liked the article and the comments thread.

    I absolutely follow the lead Warren Buffett and George Soros and take concentrated positions. Last spring and summer, and into the fall, at least 50% of my equity allocation was to GILD, for example. I wouldn't go too heavy on development-stage biotechs, though, either individually or collectively.

    Now that GILD and AMGN pay (growing) dividends, they have achieved bond-like qualities and it would take a lot for them not to remain overweights in my personal portfolio. GLTU in your investing. Thanks again for reading and commenting.
    Jul 4, 2015. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Observations On Celgene's Latest Licensing Deals, And Its Valuation [View article]
    jstratt, thanks as always for reading and sharing your thoughts. All the best fortune with CELG - there's no reason to think that it has peaked.

    I presume you are using non-GAAP EPS to project that CELG is at 25X 2015 earnings. Even that is a big premium to GILD, which I think is now at or below 10X non-GAAP 2015 earnings, and a significant premium to AMGN, which is at about 16X non-GAAP earnings estimates. Lots of time will have to pass for us to truly know which stock was the better buy. In the meantime, it's certainly a field that has grabbed the attention of some very knowledgeable people - with many more to join us as the fruits of the biotech breakthroughs become more widespread.
    Jul 3, 2015. 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Observations On Celgene's Latest Licensing Deals, And Its Valuation [View article]
    jphein, I actually own AGIO (and am down on it). It's made amazing progress. The idea of curing leukemia, or putting it into complete remission, with a pill is almost surreal to an old-timer such as myself.

    I don't intend to write about AGIO, though, until I have a good fix on the dollar value of its potential product sales. (I bought the stock on faith, being blown away by its ongoing successes.) I just don't know how many patients its drugs will treat, and what it will charge (or what CELG will charge) per drug.

    Its new project, treating pyruvate kinase deficiency, is promising as well. There are some interactions with hormonal processes, so it's not going to be a perfect drug, but otherwise, the preliminary data that AGIO has released shows that this ultra-orphan drug just might profit a nice boost to profits in several years.
    Jul 3, 2015. 10:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Observations On Celgene's Latest Licensing Deals, And Its Valuation [View article]
    jphein, thanks for the kind words. I didn't want to muddy the messages of the article with some trading data, especially as it's not verifiable by readers. What actually happened was that I have been doing swing trading in CELG, on and off, for about a year. The high P/E has led me to sell with a (say) quick 3-5% profit, and that has worked well. Recently I bought several hundred shares plus an odd lot in the $115 range, and when CELG popped very recently above $120, I sold the round lots. I kept the odd lot. The JUNO news broke after that.

    I do find that owning very small amounts of companies I follow helps me stay attuned to their trading patterns. But I'm now not looking to do swing trading in CELG. Rather, I'll see how Q2 comes out, whether they show more discipline in future quarters, and also see how the seasonally weak late summer-early fall months play out this year.

    Re your question, it's not a "wrong way" to look at CELG. However, the current market cap of CELG far exceeds the addition one would make to its book value if one marked up to market the unrealized capital gains it has on its many shares of partner companies. Beyond that, I'm not certain that all investors realize that CELG is going to see a decline in operating margins as it begins to market products of partner companies. E.g., it pays XLRN about a 25% royalty on sales as well as paying for Phase 3 trials for luspatercept and Phase 2b and possible Phase 3 trials for sotatercept.

    I don't provide investment advice per se. FWIW, tho, I don't think that investors need to flee CELG. But for a new money investment, with all the uncertainties involved in equity investing, I favor AMGN, BIIB and of course GILD.
    Jul 3, 2015. 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Observations On Celgene's Latest Licensing Deals, And Its Valuation [View article]
    Intrepid, thanks for reading and for your well-informed comments. My comment on CAR-T was not about the longstanding research efforts, but about the actual approved clinical use.

    Your CELG-INTC analogy is interesting; something to ponder.

    Thanks for commenting on my comments on Celgene's promotion of unrealistic accounting procedures. Often, investors conflate the greatness of a company's products with its non-GAAP numbers - which may paint an inaccurate view of a company's financial results.
    Jul 3, 2015. 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Observations On Celgene's Latest Licensing Deals, And Its Valuation [View article]
    Hi John - thanks for that info. There's no question that CELG is growing; nice to see them consolidating in a scenic part of the world (Summit).

    Re GILD, this approval is earlier than the company guided for as I recall. Let's see the approved pricing. Should bring EPS estimates for 2015 up a bit.
    Jul 3, 2015. 06:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Observations On Celgene's Latest Licensing Deals, And Its Valuation [View article]
    Jim, you're welcome, thanks for your incisive comment.

    Re your question, research into CAR-T has been around for quite a while, but it's still early so far as actual pharmaceuticals to use in clinical practice. So every large research center has looked at where to allocate its resources. CAR-T is part of the large and growing immuno-oncology and (more broad) immunotherapy sector.
    Jul 3, 2015. 06:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Observations On Celgene's Latest Licensing Deals, And Its Valuation [View article]
    laporte, thanks for reading and expressing your POV. Diversity of comments is important to any thread. GLTU. I remain long a small amount of CELG, may sell if the stock pops on no major news.

    Doc
    Jul 3, 2015. 02:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Observations On Celgene's Latest Licensing Deals, And Its Valuation [View article]
    ExJD: you're very welcome.

    Your question is right on. It's the terms of the deals that make me wary of CELG at its current valuation. The thinking is valid. IMHO CELG is showing signs of anxiety that despite its broad pipeline, it's still not big enough. So it's reaching for growth. I'd prefer it move its pipeline, which appears to be strong, along rapidly so that it has a replacement for/improvement on Revlimid ASAP. That's job #1 as I see it.
    Jul 3, 2015. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Observations On Celgene's Latest Licensing Deals, And Its Valuation [View article]
    an10, you're very welcome- GLTU.
    Jul 3, 2015. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Observations On Celgene's Latest Licensing Deals, And Its Valuation [View article]
    Intrepid: This is how new CAR-T is - from Juno's press release http://bit.ly/1LMTRka:

    "Juno's Investigational CAR T Cell Product Candidate JCAR014 Demonstrates Encouraging Clinical Responses and Translational Insights in Patients With B-Cell Cancers"...

    "Severe CRS was reported in 7/24 (29%) of ALL patients and 4/28 (14%) of CLL/NHL patients...

    Juno currently does not plan to advance JCAR014 into registration trials."

    My conclusion: Juno's technology is new and untested (i.e. it hasn't passed muster yet).

    From a website dealing with oncology, there's this cut-and-paste:

    "Toxicities of CAR T Cells

    Although it is early in the clinical experience with CAR T cells, there appear to be 3 major types of toxicities: B cell aplasia, cytokine release syndrome (CRS), and tumor lysis syndrome. Of note, all of these are directly related to the efficacy of CAR T cells as a therapeutic agent, as most patients who respond to CAR T cells experience these toxicities to some degree."

    I'm thinking that my description of CAR-T as new and untested is reasonable.

    What's your thinking?
    Jul 3, 2015. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Observations On Celgene's Latest Licensing Deals, And Its Valuation [View article]
    Renae, you're very welcome. GLTU. I actually haven't looked at FBT; will do so over the holiday weekend.
    Jul 3, 2015. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Observations On Celgene's Latest Licensing Deals, And Its Valuation [View article]
    Lenny, thanks for reading and adding a quantitative-based comment. Well said indeed.
    Jul 3, 2015. 02:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Observations On Celgene's Latest Licensing Deals, And Its Valuation [View article]
    frogmaier, thanks for the very kind comment. GLTU on JUNO. I just don't know how to value this stock. I am getting more and more informed on immuno-oncology; one thing I can add as a comment is that it's highly competitive. I'm not sure why CELG committed to this unproven company in such a big way.
    Jul 3, 2015. 02:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Observations On Celgene's Latest Licensing Deals, And Its Valuation [View article]
    Small Pharma Analyst, thanks back to you for reading and adding your well-informed and valuable insights. I sure don't want CELG to go down in flames!
    Jul 3, 2015. 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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