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  • Gilead Sciences: Clear The Dockets And Settle With Merck Already [View article]
    Small Pharma Analyst, thanks for this article. Great resource. I have a few questions for you:

    1. Re Merck, you say:

    "Nonetheless, Merck has a valid patent that Gilead is currently infringing, so the risk is real."

    What is the "valid" (are you sure it's valid?) patent that Gilead "is... infringing?" Are you sure Gilead is infringing?

    2. In the body of the article, you say:

    "Although Gilead is in a strong position against Merck/Idenix, the unexpected can happen in front of a judge or a panel of jurists who essentially hold the fate of the company in their hands. The risk is low but the impact is extremely high."

    Why is the fate of the company at risk from these lawsuits? Unless there is deliberate infringement, which appears not to be the case, then isn't the greatest downside reasonable royalties? Companies that bring products to market frequently infringe other patents, often deliberately but very often as in the Merck/Idenix case the infringing company has a strong case. So, my understanding is that the penalty for infringement is nothing more than a reasonable royalty.

    If that is correct, isn't the best thing for GILD shareholders for Gilead to hang tough, as settling now would only encourage more such lawsuits in the future? If at the end of the day, Gilead loses, then they pay back royalties. So they can set up a litigation reserve if they want, presumably without publicly calling it that, ie they can call it "cash." :)
    Oct 21 10:24 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: No Stopping This Juggernaut [View article]
    Congrats, Bret, on another cogent article on GILD, the lead horseman of biotech.

    Earnings estimates have begun ramping again, as the diminution in Sovaldi NRx'es has been milder than anticipated.

    My guess is that the FDA approves the SOF/LED combo ahead of schedule - but as we all know, LED (ledipasvir) is a New Chemical Entity, so approval could be denied based on preclinical concerns.

    Meanwhile, no one has explained what case the shorts have had on this name. Not-so-slow squeeze may be underway.

    Very long GILD.
    Sep 3 12:58 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Correction Beginning? Stock Index Futures Analysis Shows Speculators Fear No Evil [View article]
    I bemoaned nothing. I am pointing out a divergence between both an industrial metal- copper, and the monetary metal- gold, which together would suggest a lack of liquidity; and the POV of stock index traders, who have gone increasingly all in as prices have risen. It's hard for me to see that saying that I lean towards the consolidation/correction camp is an alarmist statement. If you think that's an alarmist POV, you may be raging bull- which may be correct. Finally, it's unclear to me that "the patient" is really on the mend. As Jeff Gundlach points out, if you subtract the 3.5% of GDP (or so) that the Fed has been providing to the nominal economy, it's unclear that the underlying economy is growing at all, especially if you include population growth.
    Apr 4 08:39 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA clears Gilead hep C combo pill [View news story]
    With the arbitration victory re Sovaldi, the favorable opinion from CHMP re Harvoni, the better-than-expected Phase 3 TAF results, this approval clears the way for any institution to buy into GILD unless it can only own a dividend-paying stock. And the ones that are in GILD and are not already overweight in it can now look at the recent price consolidation, the slew of recent good news, etc. and buy more.

    Harvoni is perhaps the single "cleanest" important combination drug product ever. There are no important side effects (so far) and no important restrictions on use, though Crestor and Viread have cautions re co-administration. This is a wonder drug product. Gilead has set up an extraordinarily high bar for the competition. I cannot see how AbbVie's pending combo can compete on the merits - tho of course we must wait and see what FDA and AbbVie agree upon before we can be definitive.

    Investment committees often meet Monday AM. I have bought more GILD and GILD calls today for various personal and family accounts.

    One never knows, of course, but when a company is in "the zone," even an expected FDA product approval usually is not the end of an upward price move.

    Congrats to Gilead management and their board for their exceptional efforts.
    Oct 10 02:43 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Killing The Competition With Sovaldi; But Does This Make Gilead A One-Trick Pony? [View article]
    David, thanks for the article, which is timely given today's sell-off on little important news that I can see. One or two additional points. Medicare is covering routine hep C screening for people with Medicare insurance who are at the right age, I think from memory up to about age 69. Regarding idelalisib, peak sales could well be above $1 B, given inflation and a favorable side effect profile and strong efficacy. I would also ask serious investors in GILD, or considering an investment in GILD, to look carefully at the TAF innovation for TDF, the active ingredient in Viread that is a cornerstone of more than one important anti-HIV combo such as Stribild. Success with TAF would in my view re-energize Gilead's anti-HIV franchise.

    Long GILD.
    Jun 9 06:36 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Should Buy A Stake In Snapchat, The Sooner The Better [View article]
    Alex, I agree with most of your thoughts, but I think this is too speculative for Yahoo. An equity investment in a private company that as you just said, has the possibility of generating revenue? (I.e. it has the possibility of A) never generating revenue, B) never generating a profit or C) generating a profit someday but not enough profit to justify the losses.) This is Internet bubble 2.0. Just because it's not as bad as Y2K doesn't mean it's not a bubble.

    What you want to do in a bubble is be a seller. Yahoo's board should direct MM to monetize the company on behalf of all shareholders.

    GOOG, FB, DIS, CMCSA and others have won in every field that YHOO might consider itself as being in. Period, full stop. Legally, YHOO's board is the eyes and ears of common shareholders. They got lucky w BABA and have to stop.
    Oct 5 03:18 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hysteria Of Vringo [View article]
    Sorry, Mr. Miller, your favored patent troll's stock is no bargain either. Meanwhile, VRNG has won a hard-fought legal battle with one of the most powerful companies around and is talking settlement with Mr. Softee. Nokia found the company credible enough to do a deal with, and serious players in the patent troll business (I use the term semi-affectionately) have voluntarily joined the VRNG team-- with their hoped-for reward coming from stock appreciation.

    With all the money floating around nowadays, and billionaires seemingly a dime a dozen if you read Bloomberg, VRNG's market cap is clearly no bubble. The stock reflects no hysteria whatsoever. It's a stock, the story has been publicized, so indeed it's not a wildly undervalued Graham and Dodd stock-- but those opportunities are all long gone.

    It's not clear to me that your POV merited a full article rather than an InstaBlog. So you don't want to own the stock. That puts you in the majority of US investors. But in one of your comments above, you use the term "ecstatic investors" piling into VRNG. That's a very strange term which you cannot support. I'm a calm, non-ecstatic VRNG shareholder. I like it for Talebian reasons-- I can lose all my money in it, but the upside just might be VirnetX-like. Call it mad money. But was I ever ecstatic or hysterical when I bought the stock? Hardly, and I'll bet few others were as well. It's a speculative investment, and that's all. No need to overthink it.
    Apr 9 09:48 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Status Update [View article]
    Nice writeup. Heins is a top-tier CEO, and the stock has good value characteristics given how "value" has been redefined over the decades.
    Apr 5 04:54 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: The More You Know The Fishier It Gets [View article]
    The key is the sNDA just filed, not the long-term outcome study. Docs will accept the sNDA, if accepted, as reason to Rx Vascepa for 10s of millions of patients. And that is a 2013 event, if it happens. Forget the competitors. Re patents, Amarin also has proprietary know-how and has possibly even locked up adequate supplies of raw material if Vascepa becomes a blockbuster. Of course, AMRN is speculative. But it is inc in Ireland b/c it was spun off from the Irish co Elan. Nothing fishy about that.
    Feb 27 10:45 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Consolidation Before The Next Step Up [View article]
    Mr Papadatos: Much of the article is insightful. I'm not sure about the statement that normally, GILD should have a conservative P/E. (It would be nice if stocks in generalwere in general valued conservatively if one had cash to buy in.) My take on GILD is that whatever "normal" times are, mgmt is so good that a premium P/E has been earned; plus, co's operating in non-cyclical businesses deserve a somewhat higher normalized P/E. Re the biggest pharma co, the two largest by market cap I know of are Novartis (NVS) and Roche (OTC or European markets). They are both well over $200 B in market cap.

    I'd also like to respond to the above comment from the ret. RPh. It is absolutely correct that a problem can lead a company to withdraw a product from the market. At this point, all drugs get QTc testing to see that torsade de pointes (VTach) is not induced. The Vioxx example was one of over-promotion, not really a serious safety issue; and there are lots of NSAIDs on the market. Withdrawal of Seldane left lots of antihistamines on the market. Given the life-saving nature of sofosbuvir and combination products and regimens built around it, I believe that it would take an extraordinary health issue from its use to arise for it to be removed from the market or seriously restricted in its use; and in the absence of another drug remotely as good as Sovaldi, I think that investing in GILD can be done with a "businessperson's risk" that the investment is safe enough in that regard to go for the GILD. So the RPh's point is correct; yet my judgment, FWIW, is that that downside possibility is not likely enough to scare me out of the stock.
    Oct 6 10:49 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Rising Short Interest Provides Yet Another Reason To Own The Stock [View article]
    Bruce7b: Thanks for reading and commenting. The active ingredient of Sovaldi is sofosbuvir, a well-described compound. Turning that into a product that can be swallowed is likely child's play. Gilead's practice with anti-HIV drugs is to allow the AIDS epidemic to be treated inexpensively or for free in poor countries, so what it has been doing for hep C is consistent. Good for them!
    Aug 15 04:18 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gilead Sciences Is Still A Great Investment Opportunity [View article]
    Dothemathman: Gilead has pursued and continues to pursue this very strategy for its anti-HIV meds. Basically this is charity toward the less fortunate, as the company's name - the Biblical balm of Gilead - implies is in its DNA. I think they are doing exactly the right thing for humanity and for shareholders.
    Aug 4 06:10 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is What Happens When A New Drug Hits The Market And Nobody Knows What To Expect [View article]
    stockman27, it's good to see conservative price targets on Seeking Alpha. IMHO the stock is on pace to break $100 much sooner, but let's see what Mr. Market says today and tomorrow, and then what the FDA says about idelalisib and then the sofosbuvir/ledipasvir combo. S&P thinks GILD's fair value is $185 at last count. So, who knows where the stock could trade...
    Jul 23 03:05 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GILD May Be A Good Short This Week [View article]
    Talk about a strategy wherein the only certainty is massive cumulative costs of buying and selling something each week?! Then there's the concept of shorting the most powerful bull market this century, and this week apparently letting a computerized algorithm choose to short one of the great stocks and great companies of our era that is actively shrinking its share count. Why can't more people just go with the flow? If they don't want to be long, that's understandable, but trying to pick up nickels in front of a steamroller? Too strange...
    Jun 25 09:56 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sovaldi And Drug Pricing: The United States Of Saps [View article]
    Holdem-Hero-

    Thanks for your comment. You saved me the trouble. Your comment is superior to the article itself.
    Jun 19 09:08 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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