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  • Be Careful With Gilead - It May Be Time To Take Profits [View article]
    I stopped reading after two factually incorrect statements:

    "In the near-term an investment in Gilead hinges on sales of Sovaldi." - no, Harvoni is already the larger seller in the U.S.

    The second, as yfeyman points out, is incorrect, has at least two errors in one sentence:

    "Harvoni is a combination therapy of Sovaldi co-dosed with interferon, which previously had to be administered with Sovaldi intravenously."

    In addition to not knowing what Harvoni is ( makes it clear, as do numerous articles and Gilead press releases), interferon for hepatitis C is given subcutaneously, not IV.

    FWIW, money flow on GILD yesterday was strongly positive. And this article by Mr. O'Boyle comes as GILD is completing what might be a classic 3-month consolidation in an otherwise strong uptrend. A technical buy signal?
    Nov 25, 2014. 07:59 AM | 52 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside For Gilead In 2015 [View article]
    Phoenician, congrats on a focused, carefully-reasoned article.

    I'm comfortable with your estimates. I might be a little more optimistic than you on int'l growth. I think Japan will come on big, maybe sooner than many expect - the need is great there, as most patients there are old and therefore fairly sick as a group. I also think that, hoping they pay their bills, there's a massive need in Italy and Spain for hep C treatment.

    An offset to the profit growth that you project, which I wonder if you considered could be rising R&D costs.

    One of the important positives of your article is that as with AAPL, GILD is now so large and so well-known to the SA community that there's no need now for authors to review it from a big picture standpoint. They (we) can hone in on specific points and write a concise, interesting and informative article that should stimulate thought, discussion in the comments section, and further research by us all. We did this on the Braeburn Forum for AAPL, where I was for a time a "Super Moderator," and it made us all better investors, tho with occasional errors as always. I look forward to a variant of that here on SA re GILD.

    Your article is a positive in a number of ways. Once again, congrats, and go Gilead/GILD.
    Jan 21, 2015. 09:29 AM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $10 version of Sovaldi available in Bangladesh [View news story]
    The more people who get cured of hepatitis C, the better.

    The long-term GILD investment thesis is unaffected by this news.
    Mar 9, 2015. 09:27 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Be Concerned About Gilead [View article]
    rg14: Your detailed comment merits a response. To my knowledge, a duopoly between two Big Pharma competitors never (never, ever) leads to a price war. The relative merits of their wares is defined by the label the FDA (or other regulatory agencies) agree upon with the marketing company. Those relative merits drive pricing. All these Big Pharma players think long term, and know that if they don't hang together on pricing, they may hang separately.

    Even a third rational entrant, say Merck, will not start a price war it can't win. If it has a great product, it will price high and point to the label to justify that price. If it's product is not as "good as" GILD's, ultimately it won't win a price war. Better in their mind to settle for a 5% share of a $20 B market (arbitrary #s) then set a precedent for the benefit of patients.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:11 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Clear The Dockets And Settle With Merck Already [View article]
    Small Pharma Analyst, thanks for this article. Great resource. I have a few questions for you:

    1. Re Merck, you say:

    "Nonetheless, Merck has a valid patent that Gilead is currently infringing, so the risk is real."

    What is the "valid" (are you sure it's valid?) patent that Gilead "is... infringing?" Are you sure Gilead is infringing?

    2. In the body of the article, you say:

    "Although Gilead is in a strong position against Merck/Idenix, the unexpected can happen in front of a judge or a panel of jurists who essentially hold the fate of the company in their hands. The risk is low but the impact is extremely high."

    Why is the fate of the company at risk from these lawsuits? Unless there is deliberate infringement, which appears not to be the case, then isn't the greatest downside reasonable royalties? Companies that bring products to market frequently infringe other patents, often deliberately but very often as in the Merck/Idenix case the infringing company has a strong case. So, my understanding is that the penalty for infringement is nothing more than a reasonable royalty.

    If that is correct, isn't the best thing for GILD shareholders for Gilead to hang tough, as settling now would only encourage more such lawsuits in the future? If at the end of the day, Gilead loses, then they pay back royalties. So they can set up a litigation reserve if they want, presumably without publicly calling it that, ie they can call it "cash." :)
    Oct 21, 2014. 10:24 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon Is At Serious Risk Of Losing 10% Of Its Business [View article]
    Brian, isn't it possible (or likely) that T and GOOG are underpricing their service right now so that they can get as many customers as possible? That would be standard given that their real need is to ascertain how well the systems work in real time. The revenue from their current limited rollout of this service is a rounding error for each company.

    Thus your title that VZ is at "serious risk" of losing "10%" of its business - which you quietly acknowledge in the body of the article will not happen right away - might be a bit stronger than fits with the facts.
    Jan 11, 2015. 09:13 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences beats by $0.21, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Congrats to all GILD longs. Esp congrats to an unbelievable mgmt team in Foster City.
    Feb 3, 2015. 04:16 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Notes from Gilead Q4 earnings call; HCV discounts go up [View news story]
    '632, pipeline had neg results on simtuzumab. (I've never been impressed with its potential in cancer or myelofibrosis, which is a sort of near-cancer.) I do agree with the CSO that it may well work in pure fibrotic diseases such as IPF. I would give it a reasonable shot at working in NASH, as well, though that's not a pure fibrotic disease.

    Re the selloff AH, often this turns around.
    Feb 3, 2015. 05:56 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Recent Hiccup, Gilead Is Still A Blue Chip Gem [View article]
    Thanks for this update, Bret. In addition to the specific new markets for Gilead's hep C offerings, Italy is apparently coming online soon for Sovaldi, and it turns out that this is a very large market with lots of old people with advanced liver disease from hepatitis C - in large part a result of recreational drug use in the 1950s, I have read.

    Congratulations on your early and consistent long GILD personal position and published recommendation. Ultimately stockholders are buying management, and GILD's is amongst the best in global business.
    Nov 25, 2014. 10:54 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead's EPS Miss Is Investors' Gain: Gilead's A Buy On Harvoni Success [View article]
    David, thanks for the overview of GILD. I agree with your major points, except for one detail. That is your statement that:

    "...there is a lot of interest by Congress in seeing the prices of those drugs go down. With that much pressure, the company will surely have to bow to the pressure, likely within the next year."

    I think that Gilead's pricing of Harvoni is responsive to the concerns of various elected officials and payors. So is the statement from Gilead on the conference call that it will be urging prescribers to go with the 8-week treatment with Harvoni where appropriate (not-high viral loads). So basically Gilead has already brought the cost of treatment of genotype 1 down from as high as $150,000 (Sovaldi plus Olysio) to a weighted average of around $80,000.

    Presumably, BTW, Medicaid does not pay list price.

    Gilead is extraordinarily savvy in this regard. It became the market share leader in HIV meds while retaining premium pricing. When it priced Harvoni, it undoubtedly had wide-ranging and fruitful discussions with payors and legislators. This did not happen in a vacuum...
    Nov 3, 2014. 10:20 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: No Stopping This Juggernaut [View article]
    Congrats, Bret, on another cogent article on GILD, the lead horseman of biotech.

    Earnings estimates have begun ramping again, as the diminution in Sovaldi NRx'es has been milder than anticipated.

    My guess is that the FDA approves the SOF/LED combo ahead of schedule - but as we all know, LED (ledipasvir) is a New Chemical Entity, so approval could be denied based on preclinical concerns.

    Meanwhile, no one has explained what case the shorts have had on this name. Not-so-slow squeeze may be underway.

    Very long GILD.
    Sep 3, 2014. 12:58 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Correction Beginning? Stock Index Futures Analysis Shows Speculators Fear No Evil [View article]
    I bemoaned nothing. I am pointing out a divergence between both an industrial metal- copper, and the monetary metal- gold, which together would suggest a lack of liquidity; and the POV of stock index traders, who have gone increasingly all in as prices have risen. It's hard for me to see that saying that I lean towards the consolidation/correction camp is an alarmist statement. If you think that's an alarmist POV, you may be raging bull- which may be correct. Finally, it's unclear to me that "the patient" is really on the mend. As Jeff Gundlach points out, if you subtract the 3.5% of GDP (or so) that the Fed has been providing to the nominal economy, it's unclear that the underlying economy is growing at all, especially if you include population growth.
    Apr 4, 2013. 08:39 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    Alex, thanks for adding your expertise so rapidly (probably after a full day working) on this fraught day for GILD shareholders. It's painful for many, but I'm glad that this news is out. I expect Gilead to thoroughly dominate the hep C space globally.
    Dec 22, 2014. 06:21 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences - Investigating Earnings Predictability [View article]
    Sherpa, you raise a good point. Cogent, concise article.
    Nov 29, 2014. 09:00 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead's Value Without Its Hep C Franchise [View article]
    Tim, this is a great topic you have chosen - thanks for an innovative idea for this article.

    Everyone can decide whether a 36X P/E is appropriate for the non-hep C part of GILD's earnings.
    Nov 18, 2014. 04:15 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment