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DoctoRx  

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  • Why I Bought The Dips In Both Gilead And Achillion Today [View article]
    Think China. Big potential profits for GILD assuming fair reimbursement. I expect that China's mature enough now that it won't want to steal GILD's patents so long as it finds them valid under Chinese law. Statistics are all over the place, but my WAG is 20 million Chinese hep C patients could use Gilead's cures.
    May 28, 2015. 04:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Bullish Thesis On Deere [View article]
    Congrats, Alex, on another savvy investment. A return of food commodity price inflation will help DE and help set off yet another run to all-time highs, as in multiple past cycles.
    May 27, 2015. 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie's 2-DAA regimen achieves 95% cure rate in Japanese HCV-1b patients [View news story]
    I would tend to think so.
    May 27, 2015. 09:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GlobeImmune therapeutic vaccine candidate for hepatitis B flunks Phase 2 study; shares off 62% premarket [View news story]
    So far, no press release from Gilead.

    Many months ago, Gilead began sounding a good deal more optimistic about its other hep B candidate, GS-9620, a Toll-like receptor-7 agonist. Gilead has now listed GS-9620 as being in Phase 1 for HIV, with the hope that it could serve as, or as part of, a functional cure of HIV disease/AIDS. How well GS-9620 would work solo, or with Viread (?) or TAF is not known to me.

    The rule on Phase 2 studies is that if a pharma company doesn't get a number of failures, it's not adventurous enough. It would be nice to get some positive Phase 2 news sooner rather than later, though, from Gilead.
    May 27, 2015. 08:45 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie's 2-DAA regimen achieves 95% cure rate in Japanese HCV-1b patients [View news story]
    Harvoni w/o ribavirin achieved 100% cure in genotype 1 patients in both the treatment-naive and treatment-experienced groups. http://bit.ly/1BoQFCh

    I don't know if the Gilead-treated patients were identical - high viral load was specified in the ABBV group.
    May 27, 2015. 07:58 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Review Of Amgen's AMG 334 [View article]
    The Alder data looks better, tho it's just from a proof of concept study. http://bit.ly/1PLh5tV (May 15 press release). But I agree, the AMGN product looks good - tho a $300 MM peak sales number for a monoclonal antibody NCE would not be considered a success by analysts IMHO.
    May 26, 2015. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mac Segment Updates Will Lift Apple Sales [View article]
    Alex, Nice review, thanks for providing your thoughts. I'm not sure the Mac can get over $50 B in sales in 2020, but I share your bullishness on trend.
    May 26, 2015. 01:36 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought The Dips In Both Gilead And Achillion Today [View article]
    '632, thanks for the link - I hadn't seen that before. GILD mgmt previously indicated they are optimistic that GS-5745 has solved prior problems with this class of drug. GS-5745 might just emerge as a truly major product for more than one indication.
    May 23, 2015. 05:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought The Dips In Both Gilead And Achillion Today [View article]
    You're very welcome, Ptatty, my pleasure. Thanks back to you for your readership and active involvement on the comments thread. Congrats on some good investing and good luck going forward.
    May 23, 2015. 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought The Dips In Both Gilead And Achillion Today [View article]
    Ptatty, thanks for pointing out my prior comments that ACHN was a very dangerous stock; I never expected Gilead to buy it. IMHO you're right on that with patience, ACHN could move much higher.
    May 23, 2015. 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought The Dips In Both Gilead And Achillion Today [View article]
    Augustus, nice comment, thanks for adding it. Just a detail, "our guy" JNJ paid $12.25 per share for unregistered (illiquid) stock, not $12.75.

    GLTU, and BTW I think the covered call selling is an intelligent tactic.

    Expounding on your main point, JNJ has now validated that ACHN has done high-quality drug development work. All the ACHN press releases in the world are not worth what this deal says about its efforts, no matter how matters go from here. Now that they have convinced the best US Big Pharma company, they have finally impressed me.
    May 23, 2015. 05:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought The Dips In Both Gilead And Achillion Today [View article]
    Tradestar, thanks for reading and for your probing questions.

    Are you saying that JNJ did all this work, bought hundreds of millions of dollars of stock - and there's no valid patent?

    As far as people who bought at $15, one can look back at all the downs and ups of ACHN. Why focus on recent speculative trading that there would be a takeover? My point remains that ACHN appears to have done a good job coming back from the dead at $1 per share in 2009 and under $3 much more recently.

    Anyway, presumably JNJ simply wants one product from ACHN, tho I suppose that they may also want a second product. Assuming JNJ wants just the one compound, my sense is the price is attractive to new money buying ACHN in the $9+ range.

    Finally, as I mentioned in the article, I got it out quickly during the trading day b/c of the breaking news. Clearly this was not one of my heavily-researched more thorough reviews of a corporation.
    May 23, 2015. 05:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Critique Of Carl Icahn's Apple Fair Value Revaluation To $240 Per Share [View article]
    Ken, thanks for your thoughtful response. Let's see how it comes out! I'm going to continue to go with Apple's accounting...

    All the best
    Doc
    May 22, 2015. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amgen gets EU backing for Repatha [View news story]
    No, I think it's a positive for both AMGN and REGN/SNY. There was always the possibility that the Europeans would restrict the labeling to, perhaps, homozygous patients with super-high cholesterol levels until outcomes data arrived.

    It's also good for AMGN in the EU, as it should come to market before the competition from SNY (which will be the sole marketer of the REGN product ex-US).
    May 22, 2015. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amgen gets EU backing for Repatha [View news story]
    Yes! The PCSK9 target is going to lead to vast sales of drugs attacking it, beginning but not ending with these antibodies IMHO.
    May 22, 2015. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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