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DoctoRx

 
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  • Is A Correction Beginning? Stock Index Futures Analysis Shows Speculators Fear No Evil [View article]
    I bemoaned nothing. I am pointing out a divergence between both an industrial metal- copper, and the monetary metal- gold, which together would suggest a lack of liquidity; and the POV of stock index traders, who have gone increasingly all in as prices have risen. It's hard for me to see that saying that I lean towards the consolidation/correction camp is an alarmist statement. If you think that's an alarmist POV, you may be raging bull- which may be correct. Finally, it's unclear to me that "the patient" is really on the mend. As Jeff Gundlach points out, if you subtract the 3.5% of GDP (or so) that the Fed has been providing to the nominal economy, it's unclear that the underlying economy is growing at all, especially if you include population growth.
    Apr 4 08:39 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Killing The Competition With Sovaldi; But Does This Make Gilead A One-Trick Pony? [View article]
    David, thanks for the article, which is timely given today's sell-off on little important news that I can see. One or two additional points. Medicare is covering routine hep C screening for people with Medicare insurance who are at the right age, I think from memory up to about age 69. Regarding idelalisib, peak sales could well be above $1 B, given inflation and a favorable side effect profile and strong efficacy. I would also ask serious investors in GILD, or considering an investment in GILD, to look carefully at the TAF innovation for TDF, the active ingredient in Viread that is a cornerstone of more than one important anti-HIV combo such as Stribild. Success with TAF would in my view re-energize Gilead's anti-HIV franchise.

    Long GILD.
    Jun 9 06:36 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hysteria Of Vringo [View article]
    Sorry, Mr. Miller, your favored patent troll's stock is no bargain either. Meanwhile, VRNG has won a hard-fought legal battle with one of the most powerful companies around and is talking settlement with Mr. Softee. Nokia found the company credible enough to do a deal with, and serious players in the patent troll business (I use the term semi-affectionately) have voluntarily joined the VRNG team-- with their hoped-for reward coming from stock appreciation.

    With all the money floating around nowadays, and billionaires seemingly a dime a dozen if you read Bloomberg, VRNG's market cap is clearly no bubble. The stock reflects no hysteria whatsoever. It's a stock, the story has been publicized, so indeed it's not a wildly undervalued Graham and Dodd stock-- but those opportunities are all long gone.

    It's not clear to me that your POV merited a full article rather than an InstaBlog. So you don't want to own the stock. That puts you in the majority of US investors. But in one of your comments above, you use the term "ecstatic investors" piling into VRNG. That's a very strange term which you cannot support. I'm a calm, non-ecstatic VRNG shareholder. I like it for Talebian reasons-- I can lose all my money in it, but the upside just might be VirnetX-like. Call it mad money. But was I ever ecstatic or hysterical when I bought the stock? Hardly, and I'll bet few others were as well. It's a speculative investment, and that's all. No need to overthink it.
    Apr 9 09:48 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Status Update [View article]
    Nice writeup. Heins is a top-tier CEO, and the stock has good value characteristics given how "value" has been redefined over the decades.
    Apr 5 04:54 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: The More You Know The Fishier It Gets [View article]
    The key is the sNDA just filed, not the long-term outcome study. Docs will accept the sNDA, if accepted, as reason to Rx Vascepa for 10s of millions of patients. And that is a 2013 event, if it happens. Forget the competitors. Re patents, Amarin also has proprietary know-how and has possibly even locked up adequate supplies of raw material if Vascepa becomes a blockbuster. Of course, AMRN is speculative. But it is inc in Ireland b/c it was spun off from the Irish co Elan. Nothing fishy about that.
    Feb 27 10:45 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is What Happens When A New Drug Hits The Market And Nobody Knows What To Expect [View article]
    stockman27, it's good to see conservative price targets on Seeking Alpha. IMHO the stock is on pace to break $100 much sooner, but let's see what Mr. Market says today and tomorrow, and then what the FDA says about idelalisib and then the sofosbuvir/ledipasvir combo. S&P thinks GILD's fair value is $185 at last count. So, who knows where the stock could trade...
    Jul 23 03:05 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GILD May Be A Good Short This Week [View article]
    Talk about a strategy wherein the only certainty is massive cumulative costs of buying and selling something each week?! Then there's the concept of shorting the most powerful bull market this century, and this week apparently letting a computerized algorithm choose to short one of the great stocks and great companies of our era that is actively shrinking its share count. Why can't more people just go with the flow? If they don't want to be long, that's understandable, but trying to pick up nickels in front of a steamroller? Too strange...
    Jun 25 09:56 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sovaldi And Drug Pricing: The United States Of Saps [View article]
    Holdem-Hero-

    Thanks for your comment. You saved me the trouble. Your comment is superior to the article itself.
    Jun 19 09:08 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Is Not A Google+ Wannabe [View article]
    Thanks for sharing your observations, Alex. I'm probably one of a modest # of individual investors who is long FB who doesn't like to use it, so I like to read on why it's doing so very well in the real world of profit and loss. I cannot escape the conclusion that it has done so extremely well in such a short time that it will be a dominant force for years to come.
    Jun 4 11:42 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Herbalife A Fraud? That Is The Question [View article]
    Matt, did you improperly trap me and many others into reading an article that did not actually answer the question posed in the title?

    What is one specific illegal activity that Herbalife engages in?

    You dance all around the question in the title, but you don't answer it. Do you actually have an opinion on whether Herbalife is violating (say) United States law? If you don't, what was the point of your article? If you do, why did you not share it?
    Aug 8 02:03 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: A Physician's Perspective On Vascepa [View article]
    I do expect off-label use in that category to grow, as docs get familiar with A) MARINE study and sNDA for the indication; and B) JELIS.

    My research to date suggests that GSK tried and failed to prove that Lovaza is effective for that very large patient population.
    Feb 25 02:29 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Rising Short Interest Provides Yet Another Reason To Own The Stock [View article]
    Bruce7b: Thanks for reading and commenting. The active ingredient of Sovaldi is sofosbuvir, a well-described compound. Turning that into a product that can be swallowed is likely child's play. Gilead's practice with anti-HIV drugs is to allow the AIDS epidemic to be treated inexpensively or for free in poor countries, so what it has been doing for hep C is consistent. Good for them!
    Aug 15 04:18 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gilead Sciences Is Still A Great Investment Opportunity [View article]
    Dothemathman: Gilead has pursued and continues to pursue this very strategy for its anti-HIV meds. Basically this is charity toward the less fortunate, as the company's name - the Biblical balm of Gilead - implies is in its DNA. I think they are doing exactly the right thing for humanity and for shareholders.
    Aug 4 06:10 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead's Massive Undervaluation: A Pictorial Overview [View article]
    Re the possibility of Sovaldi sales flattening out, and the cure vs chronic treatment issue, an offset is the combo of sofosbuvir (the active drug in Sovaldi) plus ledipasvir, which should be approved by mid-Oct or sooner, and which will replace the very expensive Olysio/Sovaldi combo and thus deserves a price premium to Sovaldi alone. This will treat GT 1, which is where patients are being warehoused.

    On top of this there are at least two more major considerations for Gilead's hep C franchise. One is that intl expansion is just now getting going. The two largest markets by patient count in Europe appear to be Italy and Spain. Italy is prob larger. The northern countries are richer but hep C is (much) less prevalent. Then there is Japan, where Bristol-Myers is ahead of Gilead, but by next year, Gilead should be in great shape. The second consideration is that Gilead is not standing still in hep C. It likely will replace ledipasvir with an all-genotype drug in combo w Sovaldi, and then there are 3-drug combos.

    Also, as the leader in hep C treatment, Gilead is now #1 on the list to see new approaches, promising new drugs, etc.

    IMHO, Bret has once again nailed the key investment thesis here: GILD simply looks underpriced relative to its peers. This article's pictorial approach to presenting this investment thesis is clear and convincing to that point.
    Jul 30 01:07 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Facebook Is A Sell [View article]
    35X forward earnings- a total guess, BTW, is OK. That's about a 3% earnings yield, which beats cash. In perhaps two more years that may be a 6% earnings yield, and the stock could deserve to trade a good deal higher.

    For adventurous investors who don't need current income from a stock, I think FB is a buy and hold.

    Long FB.
    May 28 08:39 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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