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DoctoRx

 
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  • FDA Votes 'No': Is This The End Of Amarin? [View article]
    AMRN now is close to worthless IMO. First the niacin (trig reducer) outcomes disappointment, then this. I had been a bull months ago only on the chance that the product could be a huge blockbuster, but when Omthera and not AMRN was taken over by Big Pharma, I switched to negative on AMRN. That was my canary in the coal mine. Big Pharma sees almost all and knows almost all.

    Sad for Amarin and Vascepa, and of course AMRN's shareholders. Perhaps a cash-rich company wants to do the outcomes study, or perhaps a government might fund it. Lots of maybes. My experience in the industry gives me de minimus hope that FDA will approve this indication. Could happen, but highly doubtful.

    All the above JMO, of course.
    Oct 16 08:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Amarin Bear Is Throwing In The Towel [View article]
    Longer-term, for primary care doctors to embrace Vascepa, they need a real army of reps and other marketing techniques to turn this into a blockbuster, i.e. they need Big Pharma. Will Big Pharma market Vascepa without an NCE designation? Amarin is burning big bucks to get these sales increases, and will struggle to be profitable even with success on the mid-range LDL reduction indication.

    Another concern is the Omthera acquisition by AstraZeneca. If Vascepa bids fair to be a blockbuster, why did AZN acquire this competitor with no approved product?
    Oct 4 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cover Your Amarin Short And Go Long [View article]
    Second the request for where you get the weekly script count. Is this from a paid service? Also, might you or anyone else have the data on how Lovaza's early launch script count were?
    Jul 7 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Q4 Call Leaves A Fishy Taste In My Mouth [View article]
    I continue to be cautious about a buyout. IMHO this would turn on a cold-eyed assessment by the buyer of the strength of Amarin's patents and other protection for Vascepa for years to come-- and that's regardless of NCE status, which I argue is relevant but not the determining factor in AMRN's long-term value.
    Mar 10 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Q4 Call Leaves A Fishy Taste In My Mouth [View article]
    I am seeing Vascepa ads very prominently in my throwaway cardiology journals.
    Mar 10 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Q4 Call Leaves A Fishy Taste In My Mouth [View article]
    http://bit.ly/WCQSCJ

    Thanks. I'd think this is good for Amarin. If a generic is coming in early 2015, and can produce it in the needed quantities, then likely GSK will cease the great majority of Lovaza promotion in 2014. That would leave an open field for Amarin to remind doctors of the superior Vascepa label and paint Lovaza as inferior.
    Mar 10 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: Liking This Speculative Stock's Risk-Reward Ratio [View article]
    Let's hope so! You did, after all, pay a time premium for that margin of safety.
    Mar 7 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: Liking This Speculative Stock's Risk-Reward Ratio [View article]
    Yes. What happens if the FDA denies NCE status and then the sNDA does not get a favorable decision in time? Or, something goes wrong with Amarin's production of Vascepa? Or a strange side effect pops up? Or GSK goes wild with competitive couponing etc. to try to destroy Amarin financially?

    I'm long AMRN, but as I said in the article, I'm unsure if I'm going to make or lose money on this one, and if I make money, I have no idea when or how much. I do like the odds, though, and if you did not pay a large time premium for your options, you may have made an intelligent options purchase.
    Mar 7 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: Liking This Speculative Stock's Risk-Reward Ratio [View article]
    Good luck, Attm.
    Mar 7 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: Liking This Speculative Stock's Risk-Reward Ratio [View article]
    No, didn't see it. But as I implied when I gave a very large 80% chance of failure for this stock, patent litigation is indeed a crapshoot.
    Mar 7 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: Liking This Speculative Stock's Risk-Reward Ratio [View article]
    mama-
    If scrips do well, and better than Street expectations as I hope, the stock might be at $12. Then, NCE denial might push it to 9. If the denial comes tomorrow, you may be right. But my core argument was that ultimately, AMRN shareholders are really betting on the out years such as beyond 2020, so the NCE issue is mostly a red herring. If scrips are doing well, and the patents etc. look good, a selloff on an NCE denial would look to me like a classic buying opportunity. I'm willing to lose my entire investment on this one for the chance of a 10-bagger or more, and that chance has nothing much to do with NCE status.
    Mar 6 10:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: Liking This Speculative Stock's Risk-Reward Ratio [View article]
    I ignored P/E. Was just looking at cash-on-cash returns. Ultimately that's all that a stock is. P/E is just a shorthand measure to guess at future distributable cash flows. It strikes me that even an extreme probability of futility still allows substantial risk-adjusted returns to shareholders.

    PROVE-IT is discussed in the company's documents. It is a multi-year outcomes study to see if Vascepa helps patients with mildly elevated TG levels and high cholesterol live longer with Vascepa treatment than w/o (I think there is only one other arm, namely statin-treated patients, but I don't know all the details of this study).
    Going back to P/E, it's a horrible way to value a one-product company when the sales of the product are going to drop precipitously when it goes generic. Sorry, you may not fully understand the risks of this business. There is no guarantee of a second act for Amarin beyond Vascepa. And my valuation assumed only a modest chance of this great earnings stream actually occurring...
    Mar 6 09:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: Liking This Speculative Stock's Risk-Reward Ratio [View article]
    All biotechs without revenue streams are highly risky.
    Mar 6 09:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: A Physician's Perspective On Vascepa [View article]
    Of course, I'm not an investment adviser. I do like the risk-reward here from what I've seen-- and this is a risky equity. Of course one never knows if something adverse is going on behind the scenes that the share price trend is reflecting but that is not public.
    Mar 3 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Q4 Call Leaves A Fishy Taste In My Mouth [View article]
    Fibrates are not too effective for super high TG. Niacin is, but has lots of side effects.

    Lovaza has patents that expire 2017 listed in the Orange Book. Why is it going generic in 2015? In addtion, can GSK make the Premarin argument that a generic must match precisely to be substitutable?
    Mar 2 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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