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Dominic Jones

 
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  • Netflix Bulls Don't Get It [View article]
    So why exactly would Netflix not be able to raise prices?
    Dec 11 04:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Bulls Don't Get It [View article]
    I laugh every time I see someone write about DVDs. How many kids born in the next five years will know what a DVD is?
    Dec 11 04:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Don't Listen To Wall Street On This One [View article]
    To meaningfully compete with Netflix at any price as a standalone, Amazon will have to make a substantial commitment to content. They can and might do so, but even as of this week they have indicated in actions that they're not willing to.

    Even if they do, Amazon will face significant friction landing on any Apple platform owing to how it competes with iTunes for VOD. Netflix has purposely avoided that conflict, which has aided in being a partner in Apple TV.

    LoveFilm streaming viewing may well have outpaced DVD viewing, but that's not hard to do with a one or two DVD out at a time comparison. There was a big bump up in LoveFilm subscribers in January when they launched their streaming-only plan with a free month trial amid the Netflix launch, but since then it has been steadily downhill for them on all publicly available traffic metrics. They're responding to that now, but also indicating by this week's willingness to settle for a 2nd pay window that they do not have the inclination or ability to go toe-to-toe with Netflix and Sky in the 1st pay window.

    There is substantial competition for Netflix in every market, but the primary competition has no connection to technology companies.
    May 31 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Don't Listen To Wall Street On This One [View article]
    Amazon in the UK has 2 million subscribers, the vast majority of which are DVD subscribers. The German business is tiny. The Scandanavian business likewise. Netflix just launched in the UK and Ireland and already is the most searched for video service in those markets, outranks LoveFilm on downloads across all mobile devices and has seen its traffic grow while LoveFilm's has dropped.

    Prime instant comes with an upfront yearly subscription that creates some friction compared to Netflix's month-to-month subscription. At this stage, Amazon's US video service is only attractive because it is "free" in a package of other services. As a standalone, it would be far less attractive at any price. They can fix that with a $3 billion to $4 billion commitment to content.

    May 31 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Don't Listen To Wall Street On This One [View article]
    If you understand churn in the traditional sense not taking into account the particularly flexible nature of a Netflix subscription, then you have a point.

    However, much of Netflix churn is the same people subscribing, cancelling, resubscribing, going on hold, resubscribing. Netflix subscriptions are unique in this way.

    Yes, Netflix started streaming in 2007, but the service robust enough for a standalone subscription only began two years ago, and it continues to evolve. People who resubscribe after a year find a markedly different service to what they previously experienced. And increasingly, they now have something to compare it with in the form of these new less broad, less cost effective, less personalized TV Everywhere apps. If anything, the value proposition of Netflix for consumers has increased with every new TV Everywhere option that has emerged.
    May 31 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Don't Listen To Wall Street On This One [View article]
    You seem to forget that Netflix was founded in 1997 as a new DVD by mail business and didn't record a profit until 2003. Not unusual for a start up business.

    The new Netflix is a start up once more, one that in less than two years is redefining how people obtain video entertainment. Not just in America, but in 47 countries thus far and more to come. Yes, it's not profitable now, but neither was the old business in the early years.

    Yes, there are important differences between DVD and streaming, but the most important one is the market potential. The DVD business was confined to one country and took more than a decade to scale. Streaming is global, and we're only two years into the growth curve.

    Even now, US streaming is profitable. Canada streaming will be profitable in the next quarter or so (under two years from launch). Other markets may take longer, but they'll get there faster than the DVD by mail business did.
    May 31 04:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Don't Listen To Wall Street On This One [View article]
    Blockbuster was the other RIMM. Netflix is the iPhone to bundled cable channels' Blackberrys.
    May 31 04:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Don't Listen To Wall Street On This One [View article]
    "Netflix' domestic market is hitting saturation"

    It hasn't even started yet. Netflix streaming has really only existed since the fall of 2010 and there is no comparison between Netflix today and what it was a year ago. Meanwhile, the app-based TV experience is only now beginning to go mainstream.

    Yes, mainstreaming introduces competition where Netflix had none before, but it also will lead to a dramatic popularization of TV over the Internet that will put the Netflix app alongside apps for TV channels which previously had exclusive access to the living room via the cable/sat bundle. More than that, many new TVs have a dedicated Netflix button on the remote. Netflix is primed for greater visibility in the living room than it has ever had, and signing up is getting easier, too, as evidenced by the iTunes integration.

    No saturation is a myth.
    May 30 07:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Don't Listen To Wall Street On This One [View article]
    You can count me on the long side of Netflix, but I'm screaming naked short this article. $300 and a deal with Dish...

    David Jackson are you serious?
    May 30 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Could Sink $40 By 2014 [View article]
    Actually, even if you disagreed with Rocco, at least he mostly had his facts in a row.
    May 25 09:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Could Sink $40 By 2014 [View article]
    Got halfway through this and could hardly identify one factual accuracy.

    David Jackson, is this what you've allowed Seeking Alpha to become?

    Honestly, this is shameful.
    May 24 03:12 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Executive Out, Massive Insider Buy: What's Going On? [View article]
    The market doesn't believe Netflix's 2012 target of 7 million net adds is achievable and has sold down the stock in the belief that growth has stalled.

    Meanwhile, two directors with better insight into the company's strategy than the rest of us are buying, presumably because they believe it's a good investment.

    If the past earnings season has taught observers anything, it's that analysts are flying blind on Netflix. They can't figure it out and have been peppering media company execs with questions. Reuters summed it up nicely: http://reut.rs/K9K72B

    So if the analysts are clueless and those who know the company best are buying, I'd say the market might have it wrong.

    As for Swasey, people leave companies all the time, even VPs of PR. The past year can't have been fun for him.
    May 12 12:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Netflix's $14,500,000 Insider Purchase Mean? [View article]
    Just wondering why you chose not to show Alexa graphs for at least a full year? Comparisons really need to be done year-over-year to be meaningful due to seasonality. Use the drop down menu below the chart and set it to max for a 3-year view. http://bit.ly/u8xVGi#

    I'd also recommend using Google trends for websites as a cross reference because none of these stats sites are entirely accurate. http://bit.ly/LyiOOD
    May 11 06:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Netflix Pivot Around 3 Tech Giants, DVD Kiosks, And Hollywood? [View article]
    Rather than imposing a penalty for switching, they could offer a loyalty discount to subscribers who pay for a year in advance while still offering the monthly plan. In a way they do that now for every new subscriber that gets the free month trial. Pay in advance and get one month free. Might reduce churn a little.

    Given your background, I'd be interested in what you think the likelihood is of studios dropping the cost of 24-hour digital rentals to $1 and what effect that would have on Redbox.
    Apr 27 04:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questions For Netflix Ahead Of Earnings [View article]
    Valid question, to which I ask: Why do you write blog posts for Seeking Alpha (or one of the other middlemen)? Why not just post them on your own blog?

    I suspect the answer is because the audience values the middleman's aggregation and broader choice. Seeking Alpha is the Netflix of financial content. If you decide to go elsewhere, someone else will take your place. Similarly, as long as Netflix has money to buy content from others, there'll be sellers. And the more it is able to spend for rights, the more exclusive those rights will be.

    Which leads into the original programming issue. If I haven't seen a TV show and all seasons are available on Netflix (either exclusively or non-exclusively), it's as original to me as Lilyhammer. And not being a big linear TV watcher, if I compare the variety of shows I can get from HBO for $16 (+$45 for cable) to the much broader variety available from Netflix for $8, there's no contest. Netflix offers me much more.

    Come to think of it, the only necessary evil in this industry is that $45/pm cable intermediary. But if studios, channels and everyone else is going to go direct, why would I and everyone else continue to pay the cable company for bundles of stuff we don't choose or want? I'd much rather start with Netflix and supplement with a few direct channels such as a Disney movie channel for the kids, my favorite sports teams, and Bloomberg TV.
    Apr 22 11:23 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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