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Dominic Jones

 
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  • Are Netflix CEO Reed Hastings And CFO David Wells Serious? [View article]
    Look, either you didn't understand the basic concept Wells was discussing before you chose to leap off the deep-end in this diatribe (shame on you), or you did and chose to twist what was discussed for your own ends (again, shame on you).
    Jan 29 11:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Netflix CEO Reed Hastings And CFO David Wells Serious? [View article]
    Ed697 said it all.

    "Plus, you're a fellow contributor. I expect more."

    The point of my comment. I expect more.
    Jan 29 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Original Programming Will Not Make Any Difference [View article]
    Anyone expecting original programming to lead to loads of new subs hasn't read NFLX's disclosures. Here's the bit from the most recent letter:

    "Our spending on original programming is intended to allow us to test a new licensing model using a small portion of our content budget. If “Lilyhammer” or “House of Cards” is popular enough on Netflix so that the fees we’ve paid for each are in-line with that of other equally-popular content on Netflix during the same time period, we’ll consider them a success."

    Nothing there about using original programming as a device to attract new subs, although that may occur in some small way, as you say.
    Jan 29 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Netflix CEO Reed Hastings And CFO David Wells Serious? [View article]
    You're getting increasingly shrill and losing more credibility by the post. In the past, I found your posts quite useful in offsetting the bull case, but now I find your contributions little more than painful polemic.
    Jan 29 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Earnings Preview: Expect More Pain Ahead [View article]
    Very few new subs are taking the combined plan (about 7%), and there'll have been a lot of transition among existing subs in Q4 to one of the $7.99 plans, so ARPU will probably fall.
    Jan 23 04:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Earnings Preview: Expect More Pain Ahead [View article]
    I'm expecting domestic subs to have stabilized. I'm fine with flat. Domestic guidance is key.

    International is where my attention will be. Canada should show stronger net adds than the prior year quarter.

    LatAm is the big tell. Based on search interest, web visits, app store downloads and Facebook app users, my expectations are that Mexico is going well, Brazil isn't great and there are a few bright spots elsewhere, e.g. Colombia. Piracy remains a huge challenge but the recent FBI raid and the fallout from it across the industry is going to be positive for them going forward.

    UK & Ireland is interesting. They've won Ireland already, game over. UK is much more challenging. Lovefilm is putting up a fight. Maybe they underestimated. UK consumer response has been mostly positive, but their content offering needs to improve. If they follow the Canada script, they'll win in the UK, too.

    Getting back to global profitability earlier than expected so they can launch in other European markets in 2012 would be very positive.
    Jan 23 03:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Litigation: Ambulance Chasers Or Legitimate? [View article]
    Ho hum. I read this simply as an internal re-org that reflects what management has been telling us. The streaming and DVD businesses are being managed separately, but customers won't see any difference.
    Jan 18 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Litigation: Ambulance Chasers Or Legitimate? [View article]
    Everything you need to know about the merits of these suits can be seen in how the stock has behaved since the first one was announced late Friday. Case closed.
    Jan 18 06:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Launch Into U.K. And Ireland Already In Trouble [View article]
    The Lovefilm £4.99 plan expired one day after the "announcement." Those who managed to find the deal (it wasn't posted where one could easily find it) will get that rate for 3 months, after which it goes up to £7.99. Just the facts, ma'am, just the facts.
    Jan 11 12:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why '2 Billion Hours' Only Strengthens The Netflix Short Case [View article]
    I don't mind a short case that is based on fact, but yours seems like wishful thinking. CDN costs are a minor part of subscription costs, and they're declining on a relative basis. Streaming content licensing costs are largely fixed. If they increased subs, which it seems they did, where's the downside?

    As for the Starz thing, where do you get 18% from? It's around 5% of what people actually watch. And there's still time for Starz to get a clue.

    For your info, Netflix has reported hours watched before. They did it in a blog post a month after launching in Brazil. But its not a financial metric (or relevant one according to you) and so it's not included in an SEC filing or formal disclosure. It's just an indicator of how popular streaming on Netflix is becoming.
    Jan 6 03:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why '2 Billion Hours' Only Strengthens The Netflix Short Case [View article]
    No, but being the #2 channel in homes that have Netflix might suggest that people really, really like it and aren't likely to give it up. And all those streaming hours might mean that more and more people are subscribing. Lots of mights there, but we'll see soon enough.
    Jan 6 01:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why '2 Billion Hours' Only Strengthens The Netflix Short Case [View article]
    Poorly researched post. Apparently hours watched is actually a relevant and important metric in the TV business. Figures, right? Also, Hastings gave the "well over 1 Billion hours" figure in December at the UBS conference (source: http://dthin.gs/yQvqAH ) and Seeking Alpha transcript (http://seekingalpha.co...)

    You say there's nothing to compare 2 billion hours with. Yes there is -- hours watched for other channels.

    From the Hollywood Reporter:

    "Netflix would now be the 15th most-watched TV "network" in the U.S. and could be the second most-watched in Netflix homes, BTIG analyst Richard Greenfield wrote in a blog post Wednesday.

    His math is based on news from Netflix earlier in the day that its subscribers streamed more than 2 billion hours of TV shows and movies in the fourth quarter.

    "Netflix must be eating into traditional TV viewing time," Greenfield argued. "Netflix streaming usage is exploding and is far, far bigger than traditional media executives give it credit for."

    Given that a vast majority of the firm's streaming still happens in the U.S., Greenfield estimated that "Netflix is actually number 15 with 666 million hours monthly or 2 billion per quarter — our prior analysis estimated number 25." That would on average equate to 1,905 minutes of Netflix viewing per month per subscriber, or 64 minutes per sub per day, or 32 hours per sub per month.

    Looking at Nielsen data for TV networks, Greenfield highlighted that after the top 15 channels, monthly viewing hours are below 500 million. "With an estimated 667 million hours of viewership per month in October, Netflix would rank as the 15th most-watched 'network,' " he said. "Netflix had more hours of viewing in October than FX, HGTV and History and had more than twice the viewer hours of CNN, Discovery, MSNBC and BET."

    http://bit.ly/xdYcMU

    I see the 2 billion hours release as nothing more than Netflix announcing a milestone. Saying they should release subscriber numbers ahead of their earnings announcement in a few weeks is nonsensical.
    Jan 6 01:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Cancelling Netflix, And Why You Should Care [View article]
    Even with the drop in satisfaction, Netflix scored 79. Its biggest competitor in the UK, Lovefilm, scored only 74 on the same measure, without any bad press or missteps. NFLX launches in the UK early 2012.
    Dec 30 03:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Facebook Save Netflix? [View article]
    The app has been live in Canada and Latin America. Now has 370,000 active users, or about a third of the international subscriber base at end of Q3. They're adding between 10K and 15K new app users per day. Here's the app page on Netflix: http://on.fb.me/umvM6V (Note: Facebook will be disbanding these pages soon).

    One benefit of this is that each free subscriber that uses the app ends up promoting Netflix to their friends, potentially lowering Netflix's costs. The average Facebook user has 130 friends. http://on.fb.me/v5xK3K

    The value of this is particularly important in international markets where Netflix has less brand recognition.
    Dec 30 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Cancelling Netflix, And Why You Should Care [View article]
    The bear case has been flogged to death on SA. I've read them, and thanks to them have a clear understanding of the risks.

    However, my view is simply that the long-term opportunity in international outweighs the risks at the current valuation.

    When 370,000 people outside of the US (today's number) -- one-third of the international user base at end 3Q -- are willing to endorse Netflix to their average 130 friends on Facebook, you might be underestimating the potential.
    Dec 30 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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