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Dominic Picarda, CFA

 
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  • S&P 500's All-Time Highs: Buy Or Bye? [View article]
    Yes, the average gain over one year is 7.7% after an all-time high and the probability of gains is 68.3%.

    A drop to 1880 in the meantime is also entirely consistent with historical probabilities.
    Jun 12, 2014. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500's All-Time Highs: Buy Or Bye? [View article]
    Yes, there have been various new monthly highs in the last year, but the study goes back to 1928, so there are plenty of historic examples in there too. Of course there have been some big drawdowns after all-time highs, but my point is that folks tend to focus on these at the expense of the majority of record highs that have given way to yet more highs.
    Jun 11, 2014. 02:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500's All-Time Highs: Buy Or Bye? [View article]
    Hi Nate, I'd very much agree with that. The uptrend is plainly intact across much of the developed world, and monetary conditions are still loose. These two factors trump all the other fancy "warning signs" that the top-callers vainly trot out.
    Jun 11, 2014. 02:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500's All-Time Highs: Buy Or Bye? [View article]
    Yes, the stock market will correct sooner or later, as it is wont to do. I'd be delighted to buy the rebound from the dip.
    Jun 10, 2014. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500's All-Time Highs: Buy Or Bye? [View article]
    Hi Robin, thanks for the feedback. I should look into non-confirmation by indices, although my guess is that the results would be patchy. (I did once test an assertion by Ken Fisher that mega-caps tend to lead smaller issues late in a bull market, and found there was nothing in it.)
    Jun 10, 2014. 07:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sunset For The S&P 500? [View article]
    I see a strong correlation between low-grade sarcasm and underdeveloped reading abilities. Had you bothered even to scan the bullet-points, you'd have realised I was dismissive of the theory discussed.
    Jun 9, 2014. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sunset For The S&P 500? [View article]
    Hi, I like the combination of low valuations and forthcoming monetary easing in both Japan and EZ.
    Jun 4, 2014. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sunset For The S&P 500? [View article]
    The analogy I was tempted to use in the piece was with the British politician who claimed this year's flooding in Southwest England was divine punishment for the legalisation of gay marriage.
    Jun 3, 2014. 03:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sunset For The S&P 500? [View article]
    Hi, I'm glad you found it entertaining, as I wrote it for entertainment on a quiet Friday afternoon! I don't buy the theory, even if the results are passable.
    Jun 3, 2014. 02:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sunset For The S&P 500? [View article]
    I am neither convinced by the theory nor by the results of solar-cycle investing. Were your reading abilities on a par with your sarcasm, you would have picked up on this.
    Jun 3, 2014. 02:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sunset For The S&P 500? [View article]
    A kind offer indeed. I'll bear it in mind.
    Jun 3, 2014. 02:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sunset For The S&P 500? [View article]
    To be clear, I don't believe sunspots impact the stock market.

    As I said in the bullet points:

    "While there are plenty of reasons to be bearish right now, sunspots are not among them."

    And then:

    "Quite aside from the theory behind it, the historical record of selling up at solar maxima is very mixed."

    My apologies to any readers to whom these points were overly nuanced.
    Jun 3, 2014. 02:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500's Bumpy Road To Nowhere [View article]
    Bernanke got out at the right moment, just like Greenspan. Yellen will have no choice but to intensify QE when the next stage of the crisis hits.
    Mar 10, 2014. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500's Bumpy Road To Nowhere [View article]
    Convoluted - you are entirely right, liquidity is the ultimate X-factor here. I am a bull for now based on QE alone. Once QE is tapered significantly enough, I see the boom ending very badly indeed.
    Mar 6, 2014. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500's Bumpy Road To Nowhere [View article]
    Hi Three Cheese Fondue, timing is indeed a tricky business, especially when left to subjective methods. That is why I follow a simple rules-based approach of switching to cash along the lines suggested by Mebane Faber, i.e. when the S&P closes a month below its 10-month moving average. That approach has historically reliably kept investors safe from the worst of bear-market losses. But yes, I expect I still will be long when the market starts to tank, by definition.
    Mar 5, 2014. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
18 Comments
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