Dominic Vignola

Right now, it's easier to predict the direction of the nat-gas/crude oil spread than it is to predict price movements of either, Bespoke notes. Look for nat-gas (UNG) to outperform oil (USO).

Oil has continued to run almost exclusively due to inflation fears and the tumbling dollar. Rising inventory levels in the black stuff and still tepid global demand do not support the recent move off the lows. Extremely weak natural gas represents a more accurate reflection of the weak domestic industrial economic conditions and is one of the only commodities that has yet to rally off its lows. The nearly 20:1 price ratio between a barrel of oil and a natural gas contract is abnormally large relative to history.