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Don Dion

 
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  • Diplomat Pharmacy: Strong Industry Position Heading Into IPO
    Fri, Oct. 10 DPLO 4 Comments

    Summary

    • DPLO, the nation’s biggest independent specialty pharmacy, focusing on individuals with complex chronic diseases, plans to raise $245,333,328 in its upcoming IPO.
    • We like DPLO's prominent position in a growing industry, as well as the firm's strong underwriting team and impressive, creative management.
    • At the same time, concerns over the deal's valuation could give investors pause.
    • We suggest caution, approaching DPLO's IPO.
  • Dave & Buster's IPO: Ready To Play
    Fri, Oct. 10 PLAY 3 Comments

    Summary

    • PLAY expects to raise over $120 million on 5.8 million shares, priced between $16 to $18 per share, on Friday, October 10.
    • Founded in Dallas, Texas PLAY is a popular restaurant and entertainment chain, boasting some 70 locations throughout North America.
    • We like that PLAY has a diversified business, including restaurants, entertainment arcades, and sponsorship/broadcast of Ultimate Fighting Championship pay per view events.
    • Despite decreased income, PLAY is generating increasing revenues and has managed to reduce its debt load; we suggest investors consider buying in.
  • While Leju Holdings Ltd. Shows Long-Term Promise, Immediate Shorting Opportunity At Lockup Expiration
    Thu, Oct. 9 LEJU 3 Comments

    Summary

    • October 13 will conclude the 180 day lockup period on LEJU's 120 million shares, held by its major pre-IPO shareholders.
    • At this time, LEJU's stock price could take a significant hit, following a possible supply shock to its market.
    • LEJU has also seen declines in September and October, possibly a further catalyst for its major stakeholders to sell.
    • While LEJU has shown strong revenues and income improvement, we see a short opportunity for aggressive investors at the lockup expiration.
  • USD Partners Chugs Toward IPO
    Thu, Oct. 9 USDP 3 Comments

    Summary

    • USDP, a Houston-based LP, formed by USD Group, LLC to operate, acquire and develop energy related rail terminals in North America, plans to raise $177 million in its upcoming IPO.
    • With inland fuel transport costs being relatively high, USDP’s bulk shipment by rail is a cost effective alternative in the growing US energy sector; however, USDP faces strong competition.
    • USDP has seen inconsistent growth; however, the attractive 5.75% dividend and strong underwriters will likely help the deal to successful completion.
    • We suggest caution before buying in.
  • After Alibaba Cash Influx, Yahoo 'Snaps' To It With New Investment
    Wed, Oct. 8 YHOO 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Yahoo recently announced a potential stake in Venice, CA-based Snapchat, which could help boost ad revenues and popularity among millennials, against rivals Google and Facebook.
    • This investment comes just after Yahoo's $9 billion+ cash influx, following the sale of its stake in the Alibaba IPO.
    • While some analysts deem Yahoo cash-rich and performance-poor, peer AOL has approached Yahoo about a potential merger, which could boost business from several angles.
    • We are optimistic on Yahoo's strong prospects as it turns a corner post-Alibaba.
  • Nissan Revs Ahead Of Tesla In The Final Stretch Of 2014
    Tue, Oct. 7 NSANY 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Nissan's LEAF is a best selling electric vehicle (EV), commanding a majority of zero-emission vehicle sales globally--and with a strong presence domestically.
    • Tesla's success has bolstered the entire EV industry, helping increase demand for other brands, including the LEAF (which is at present more affordable).
    • In the Q1 FY2014, Nissan reported net revenue of $24.13 billion and net income of $1.10 billion.
    • With strong guidance and new plants opening up globally, we are optimistic on Nissan's continued growth in the final stretch of calendar 2014.
  • Hewlett-Packard Investors Should Cheer The Split
    Tue, Oct. 7 HPQ 3 Comments

    Summary

    • HP today announced its intention to split into two separate divisions--the first focused on business technology, the second on personal computers and printers.
    • News of the split caused a healthy rise in the stock price, indicating that investors see this as a positive move for the company’s future.
    • HPQ posted solid recent results, including a rise in revenues, raised guidance, and cash flow up 36% over the second quarter.
    • With CEO Meg Whitman's proven expertise, we are optimistic on the new structure of HPQ for its shareholders, moving ahead in 2014 and beyond.
  • Lining Up For Paycom Software's Lockup Expiration
    Mon, Oct. 6 PAYC 2 Comments

    Summary

    • October 13 concludes the 180-day lockup period on PAYC; this will give PAYC's pre-IPO shareholders, executives and directors the chance to sell their 50+ million shares.
    • The sudden increase in shares available for public trading could lead to a significant decrease in the price of PAYC shares.
    • The firm's significant venture capital backing and tech-oriented approach indicate further likelihood of declining prices.
    • With the stock floundering in recent months, we see a short opportunity on the horizon.
  • Caution Encouraged With OM Asset Management IPO
    Mon, Oct. 6 OMAM Comment!

    Summary

    • OMAM, a diversified, global asset management company based in London, with approximately $215 billion in AUM, plans to raise $430,100,000 in its upcoming IPO.
    • While OMAM boasts of strong revenues thus far in 2014 - an increase over previous years - the company is still at a net loss as total expenses have increased.
    • OMAM faces stiff competition in the investment management industry; however, its strong relationships with its affiliates is promising, along with its impressive AUM and underwriting team.
    • We suggest investors remain cautious with this IPO.
  • A Look Inside The HubSpot Inc. IPO: Why Investors Should Consider Buying In
    Mon, Oct. 6 HUBS 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Cambridge, MA-based HUBS, which provides inbound cloud-based sales and marketing software platforms, plans to raise $120,750,000 in its upcoming IPO.
    • By June 30, 2014, HUBS had over 11,600 customers in over 70 countries across a wide range of industries.
    • Despite very stiff competition in the field, HUBS impressive management team appears up to the challenges and complexities of the field.
    • Despite reporting a net loss, HUBS has also shown steadily improving revenues; we suggest investors consider buying in.
  • With Increasing Revenues And Market Performance, NetScout Systems Poised For More Strong Results
    Mon, Oct. 6 NTCT 1 Comment

    Summary

    • For 25 years, NTCT has offered solutions in Unified Service Delivery Management to enterprises and service-providers in the global IT industry.
    • Incessant consumer demand and increasing internet complexity has opened up the marketplace to NTCT, which works to meet service expectations related to bandwidth usage, privacy, and troubleshooting.
    • NTCT has been increasing its revenue by $50 million for the past three fiscal years; and has strong liquidity for innovation.
    • Having beat analyst estimates for earnings and revenues for the past five quarters, consistently, we are optimistic that NTCT will do so again when it reports on October 16.
  • Nike Flies Toward The End Of 2014
    Fri, Oct. 3 NKE Comment!

    Summary

    • Nike is taking an aggressive approach to finding new markets domestically and abroad—focusing on women and developing nations.
    • FY2015 Q1 results showed revenues of $8.0 billion (up 15%), with growth across product types, geographies, and key categories; net income increased 23% to $962 million.
    • Nike is rewarding its shareholders via a four-year $8 billion share repurchase program; the company also declared a $0.24 dividend.
    • We are optimistic that Nike is well-positioned for future growth, looking head to 2015.
  • Sabre Corp. Brandishes A Great Short Opportunity At Upcoming Lockup Expiration
    Fri, Oct. 3 SABR 4 Comments

    Summary

    • October 14 concludes the 180-day lockup period on SABR; this will give SABR’s pre-IPO shareholders, executives and directors a chance to sell their ~200 million shares.
    • The sudden increase in shares available for public trading could lead to a significant decrease in the price of SABR shares.
    • With the stock declining slightly in recent months, yet remaining above its IPO and first day of trading price, we see a nice short opportunity for aggressive traders.
  • Comtech Telecommunications: Well-Wired For Upcoming Earnings
    Thu, Oct. 2 CMTL Comment!

    Summary

    • CMTL, a manufacturer of communications equipment, largely for the defense industry, is set to report earnings October 9th after-market.
    • CMTL has posted very solid results the past four quarters and has moved up over 2% on average immediately following each announcement; we are encouraged this pattern will repeat.
    • CMTL has announced a series of new contracts, both domestically and abroad and continues to diversify and grow its client base.
    • We are optimistic on CMTL, moving into its next earnings report, and suggest other investors be so, as well.
  • Ford Stalls In 2014, While Tesla Powers Up
    Thu, Oct. 2 F 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Ford recently lowered its expectations for the fiscal year 2015 by over $1 billion.
    • This is largely due to present and future losses in South America and Europe; Ford stock was down over 7% on the news.
    • Ford's peer Tesla has moved up in contrast, posting solid revenues, and with a strong market performance.
    • While Ford management suggests current losses are indicative of investments that will yield future gains, we suggest investors hold off on initiating positions until profitability is more clearly defined.
  • Yodlee IPO: May Scream Out Of The Gate But Be Careful
    Thu, Oct. 2 YDLE Comment!

    Summary

    • Financial app developer Yodlee is set to IPO this Friday, October 3rd.
    • Yodlee boasts impressive syndicate, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Credit Suisse, UBS and Pacific Crest.
    • While revenues have increased, net income has not been positive (apart from 2010); with 3 institutions accounting for 25% of revenues, risk from contract cancellation could be devastating.
    • We suggest investors exercise caution before buying into this IPO—although the deal is already oversubscribed and building well.
  • AAC Holdings IPO May Be Addicting To Growth Investors
    Thu, Oct. 2 AAC Comment!

    Summary

    • AAC, a provider of inpatient treatment for individuals with drug and alcohol addictions, plans to raise $80,500,000 with its upcoming IPO, set for Thursday, 10.2.
    • With reported growth (AAC recently posted positive revenue and net income figures), dedicated management, and solid underwriting, the deal appears as though it could be successful.
    • We also like that AAC’s business is differentiated among some of its healthcare peers.
    • We suggest investors consider buying into this IPO.
  • Dermira IPO: Less Appealing In A Hot IPO Week
    Thu, Oct. 2 DERM Comment!

    Summary

    • DERM anticipates raising ~ $80 million on 5.4 million shares priced between $16 and $18 in its IPO on Friday.
    • DERM’s IPO bookrunners are Citibank and Leerink Partners—solid but less illustrious than some peers.
    • While Dermira has been successful raising capital as a private company, it is not certain its skin products will make it successfully through trials.
    • Compared with other, more appealing IPOs this week, DERM is one on which we suggest investors hold off.
  • FMSA Holdings Looking Strong Heading Into IPO
    Wed, Oct. 1 FMSA 11 Comments

    Summary

    • FMSA, a provider of proppant solutions used in the oilfield service sector and by E&P companies, plans to raise approximately $1 billion in its upcoming IPO.
    • FMSA will offer 44.5 million shares at an expected price range of $21 to $24 per share.
    • FMSA is operating in the fast-growing space of fracking sands; demand for FMSA's resources should continue to grow - as evidenced by its strong fundamentals.
    • We suggest investors strongly consider buying into this IPO.
  • JP Energy IPO: A Pick For The Long Haul With Nice Yield
    Wed, Oct. 1 JPEP 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Irvine, TX oil industry company JPEP is expected to IPO in the $19-$21 per share range, with a 6.5% distribution yield.
    • JPEP’s business is set in the fuel energy areas of logistical transport and storage, making it less exposed to risk of oil price changes than some drilling companies.
    • JPEP has posted strong revenues of $2.1 billion for 12 months ending in June.
    • We suggest investors consider buying into this IPO; we hear the deal is oversubscribed and growing.
  • VWR Corp. Expected To Come Out Of The Lab With An IPO On Thursday
    Wed, Oct. 1 VWR 2 Comments

    Summary

    • VWR, an independent, leading provider of laboratory services, products and solutions, plans to raise $734,045,000 with its upcoming IPO.
    • VWR will offer 25,532,000 shares at an expected price range of $22 to $25; we hear the deal is oversubscribed and continuing to build.
    • With a leading position in a $40 billion global laboratory products industry, VWR appears a solid long-term bet; impressive earnings figures support this.
    • We suggest investors strongly consider buying into this IPO.
  • Wayfair Inc. IPO Merits Consideration From Investors
    Tue, Sep. 30 W 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Wayfair, one of the world’s most extensive Internet sites for the home, plans to raise $354,200,000 in its upcoming IPO.
    • The Boston, Massachusetts based company will offer 11 million shares at an expected price range of $25 to $28.
    • Net revenue grew from $7.7 million in 2003 to $517.3 million in 2011; at the same time, net income is still at a deficit.
    • Wayfair has several competitors; however, we believe the deal merits consideration.
  • Vivint Solar IPO Looks Bright
    Tue, Sep. 30 VSLR 16 Comments

    Summary

    • VSLR, a provider of environmentally conscious and lower cost energy alternatives to traditional energy utilities, plans to raise approximately $426 million in its upcoming IPO.
    • VSLR will offer 20.6 million shares at an expected price range of $16 to $18 per share; we hear the deal is oversubscribed and growing.
    • VSLR does have declining net income, despite healthy revenues, and a overall promising industry in the wake of new federal carbon emissions regulations.
    • We suggest investors consider buying into this IPO.
  • Perzo: A Coup For Goldman Sachs Shareholders?
    Tue, Sep. 30 GS 1 Comment

    Summary

    • GS plans to close a deal as soon as this week to create an instant messaging service, formed from the startup platform Perzo.
    • While the consortium structuring the deal includes peers BAC, MS, JPM, and HSBC, among others; GS appears to be reaping the majority of the PR benefits.
    • This builds on Goldman's impressive net earnings in Q2 2014 of $2.04 billion, and growth in assets under management to a record $1.14 trillion.
    • We continue to be optimistic on GS, moving into the remainder of 2014.
  • TD Bank Shines For Its Shareholders Again
    Mon, Sep. 29 TD 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Unlike peer financial institutions BAC and CS, TD Bank has maintained its reputation for trustworthiness and dignity, as well as a high credit rating.
    • TD's total revenue rose 6.8% in Q3; EPS rose 40%.
    • TD Bank also recently became the main Canadian partner for the Aeroplan credit card loyalty program.
    • We are optimistic on TD Bank's prospects moving ahead in 2014.
  • Calithera Biosciences: One Of Few Promising Biotech IPO Picks
    Mon, Sep. 29 CALA 5 Comments

    Summary

    • CALA, a clinical-stage developer of cancer treatments, plans to raise $80 million in an IPO, which is set to price this Thursday night, October 2nd.
    • We hear that despite CALA's still approaching Phase II trials (early 2015), the company is in a "hot space" at the moment - which could easily make this deal complete.
    • Despite current losses and an accumulated deficit pre-commercialization of treatments, we suggest investors consider CALA as a promising biotech IPO.
    • This IPO has a solid underwriting team with experience in the biotech space.
  • TriVascular Technologies: A Strong Short Candidate
    Mon, Sep. 29 TRIV Comment!

    Summary

    • The lockup period for TRIV expires this October 13, 2014; at that point, some 12.8 million shares of TRIV, held by pre-IPO insiders, will be freed for sale.
    • With an average trading volume of just 35,000 shares/day, the event could effect a supply shock, temporarily depressing TRIV’s stock price.
    • TRIV has also exhibited significant declines in its early market performance; VC firms, executives, and directors could be ready to move on to other projects.
    • We see a potentially strong short opportunity ahead for aggressive TRIV traders.
  • With Consistent Sales And Re-Branding In Sight, GM Apparently Regaining Strength
    Fri, Sep. 26 GM 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Although GM is still reeling from its series of recalls and unfolding issues in China, management is moving forward with strategic initiatives.
    • GM announced that Cadillac will split off and re-brand itself for a younger demographic, based in NYC.
    • GM sales have remained surprisingly steady, along with its dividend (albeit a poor stock performance YTD).
    • At a relatively low price point, GM could be well-positioned for a long-term recovery.
  • Oracle Changing Things Up: Potential Buying Opportunity Opens For Investors
    Fri, Sep. 26 ORCL 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Larry Ellison announced plans to retire as CEO of Oracle and will assume CTO and chairman duties; the shift brings two exceptional leaders in his stead.
    • Recent results for Oracle were mixed: the firm missed estimates for earnings and revenues slightly, however, bookings in the critical cloud sector rose by 54%.
    • Oracle stock is up YTD, and the firm pays a steady dividend.
    • We suggest investors consider taking a position in Oracle as new leadership and strategy begins to play out.
  • Short Sellers Should Wake Up For La Quinta Holdings' Lockup Expiration
    Fri, Sep. 26 LQ Comment!

    Summary

    • The 180-day lockup period on LQ will expire on October 5, allowing the firm's pre-IPO shareholders, particularly Blackstone, as well as its executives and directors to sell.
    • LQ has posted consistent gains post-IPO, and we believe that it will be able to continue to do so in the future.
    • In the near term, we see a potential short opportunity for aggressive investors; share price declines have been shown as (-5.5%) within the Day (-11, +9) period surrounding the lockup event.
  • Exxon Mobil Winds Down In Russia; Global Outlook Still Strong
    Wed, Sep. 24 XOM 9 Comments

    Summary

    • In response to US sanctions, XOM announced plans to wind down exploration operations in the Kara Sea off Russia’s Siberian coast.
    • Given XOM's very strong and diverse global presence, along with deals in Russia that are free to continue despite sanctions, the current political environment could likely not strongly affect Exxon Mobil.
    • XOM announced Q2 earnings of $8.8 billion--a 28% increase over the same period last year--and a ~9% increase in dividends per share.
    • Particularly in contrast with struggling peer BP, we are positive on XOM moving ahead in 2014.
  • Credit Suisse's Response To Federal Scrutiny: One Of Several Negative Signs For Investors
    Wed, Sep. 24 CS 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Credit Suisse has been singled out by the Fed for its apparent cavalier attitude and response to its concerns over its loan practices.
    • This follows on the heels of additional infractions by Credit Suisse, including a landmark $2.5 billion tax evasion case earlier in 2014.
    • Credit Suisse stock is off over 12%, and is trading lower than several of its peers.
    • With a negative reversal of net income, Credit Suisse does not look like an appealing international banking pick in 2014.