Don Seehafer

Don Seehafer
Contributor since: 2013
Thanks everyone for their intriguing opinions and kind support, this has been a wonderful experience and definitely the first of many more articles. What a fantastic community we have here on SeekingAlpha!
The Shanghai composite has looked very attractive for most of the year to buy in, agree with the good value on many of the Chinese equities. My comparison between China and Japan was general, you're right, they are very different. But both growth models are based on an outdated economic model of mercantilism from 19th century Europe. Can a neo-mercantilist economy continue as a sustainable model in the 21st century? Let's revisit in 2020 and invite Mr G Chang for afternoon tea.
Thanks! I'll have more analysis on the markets in the Far East, not necessarily just China. This country does seem to capture the imagination of many these days.
Would be interested to know which guidelines the Chinese banks are following. Let's see in 2020.
Not much from the view on the street, many Chinese business owners and entrepreneurs are indifferent to party politics and don't really speak much on reforms. Among foreign expats who have opened up businesses in the mainland, a few will express some concerns but we know it's out of our hands. The chatter is pretty low from the street, the conversations about the upcoming party congress and the reforms to be taken are coming from peers in the financial service industry.
I hope it's provided some helpful insight!
Very concerned with how large the shadow banking system in China has grown, and how much the government will be willing to bail out the banks.
Agree, 5-7 yrs is a good time frame for continued growth in China before a sharp downturn like the real estate bubble. Once local governments begin to tax property like every other developed economy in the world, the buying frenzy in the real estate market will cool down.
China may not need anyone's help, and should be able to solve its own problems, but there's division even within the leadership over how to proceed with the next step in reforming the economy. There's the old hardliners who will be always cautious of the new generation of leaders who are advocating economic reform as the top priority moving forward.
Thanks Mike, hopefully the first of many more! I agree with your views of the concern with local government debt spiraling out of control, it's going to be a big issue moving forward.
Is the economy doing fine? Depending on which analyst you speak with, the forecast is either upbeat or grim, this is the big debate moving forward for China in the short and long term.
On the street, many people who have purchased new iPhones or other smartphones have always had to choose between China Mobile or China Unicom as the phone carrier. Even though many iPhone users have grumbled before about the slow data on the China Mobile platform, many still end up using CHL as their phone carrier, the world's largest. YUM is still getting over a PR nightmare with the recent bird flu hitting their bottom line, but over time the thought will pass because chicken is a staple diet in the country. The main question with KFC is the future growth potential, have they over saturated the market? Certainly in tier 1 cities like Shanghai and Beijing there seems to be a KFC around every street corner, but how about the growth potential in tier 2 and 3 cities, and the consumer appetite and disposable income in those areas?